AOE - Arrow Energy

[Sean K]

For techies out there, am I seeing a head and shoulders happening or is it a little tenuous? O&G would generally have to fall over for this to eventuate surely, and that doesn't look like happening atm? Maybe one of those set ups that don't eventuate. I hope not, as I have a few O&G ers. Will be interesting to watch anyway. Thoughts?

 

[Logique]

Thats an interesting observation Kennas. It's had a powerful run up, so the possibility of a pull back to 2.25 technically can't be discounted. Particularly if it pushes below your marked neckline at about 2.65.

I've never had much luck trading patterns. Also stocks with this much momentum tend to sweep a lot of technical conventions aside.

 

[chops_a_must]

For techies out there, am I seeing a head and shoulders happening or is it a little tenuous? O&G would generally have to fall over for this to eventuate surely, and that doesn't look like happening atm? Maybe one of those set ups that don't eventuate. I hope not, as I have a few O&G ers. Will be interesting to watch anyway. Thoughts?

With the way in which this has run, it is WAY overdue for a lengthy consolidation.

BUT!!! QGC has run so hard also, and it is hard to see how AOE could fall alongside this, considering they track each other to a large extent. AOE is on the bottom of the short term trend line, so early next week is a critical time.

It is also hard to see AOE falling a large amount, considering what they have in store in the not too distant future. An international listing of Arrow international, and with that obviously, the international development plans; notably China, India, Vietnam AND Indonesia. We have seen what China has done to MPO, and AOE have 100s of times more acreage. PLUS 3 more (presumably) upgrades to reserves in Queensland. The last one was a 44% increase. It's hard not to look with a positive spin, the momentum and trend tells the story really...

Plus there is the oil price of course... and the increase in wholesale electricity price...

 

[Sean K]

For techies out there, am I seeing a head and shoulders happening or is it a little tenuous? .....Will be interesting to watch anyway.

Well, breaking that neckline might have sealed it. What's the go here with POO running away to $80.....This just run too hard? $2.25 a possibility here, but might present a buying opp for you fundies out there convinced of the numbers. All those indicators look very scary.

 

[nizar]

Well, breaking that neckline might have sealed it. What's the go here with POO running away to $80.....This just run too hard? $2.25 a possibility here, but might present a buying opp for you fundies out there convinced of the numbers. All those indicators look very scary.

Hi Kennas.
Yeh i agree, im selling all that iv got at this mornings open.
I wanted it to bounce off the $2.60ish level like it did last time, didnt happen so Im out.

ESG im gonna bail as well.
Both in profit (ESG rather substantial) but Im giving back way too much profit with my winners

SEK i will top up.

 

[chris1983]

Hi Kennas.
Yeh i agree, im selling all that iv got at this mornings open.
I wanted it to bounce off the $2.60ish level like it did last time, didnt happen so Im out.

ESG im gonna bail as well.
Both in profit (ESG rather substantial) but Im giving back way too much profit with my winners

SEK i will top up.

Quite a few players in the CBM fields have been getting smashed..one that has held up good is MPO. Back onto Arrow though..this is fundamentally a very strong company. Should just hold and lock them away long term which is what I decided to do on my free carried lot quite some time ago. My first parcel at 60 cents took 5 months to move. I was even in negative with them at times. They have progressed their operations substantially since then and they are a different company to what they were back then with a lot of international exposure. If you want to hold long on an energy play this is one of the stocks to look at.

 

[nioka]

Back onto Arrow though..this is fundamentally a very strong company. Should just hold and lock them away long term which is what I decided to do on my free carried lot quite some time ago. My first parcel at 60 cents took 5 months to move. I was even in negative with them at times. They have progressed their operations substantially since then and they are a different company to what they were back then with a lot of international exposure. If you want to hold long on an energy play this is one of the stocks to look at.

Agree. In hindsight it would have been nice to have sold at the top and buy back when the fall stops. If only we could tell when the turn around is with us. Even at today's price it is still one of my most profitable stocks. If I sold now it could turn and be very expensive to reenter so I will hold as I'm sure it will rebound strongly. (unless of course someone knows a lot more than we have been told.

 

[chris1983]

Agree. In hindsight it would have been nice to have sold at the top and buy back when the fall stops. If only we could tell when the turn around is with us. Even at today's price it is still one of my most profitable stocks. If I sold now it could turn and be very expensive to reenter so I will hold as I'm sure it will rebound strongly. (unless of course someone knows a lot more than we have been told.

Im very confident on it rebounding in the future. Arrow will be a very large company. Farm ins with EIG..partner such as GAIL. The selling of late may have been a reaction to the sentiment shift towards iron ore..margin loan holders pulling their money out in the downturn and technical traders such as Niz..but IMO they are holding quite well. I'm holding long and made a decision awhile ago that management for AOE have been brilliant. I don't know when the retracement will stop but based off fundies its a buying opportunity.

 

[chops_a_must]

Hi Kennas.
Yeh i agree, im selling all that iv got at this mornings open.
I wanted it to bounce off the $2.60ish level like it did last time, didnt happen so Im out.

ESG im gonna bail as well.
Both in profit (ESG rather substantial) but Im giving back way too much profit with my winners

SEK i will top up.

Was out of ESG some time back. Free carried a whole bundle. Will look to get back into them in the low 50s. Probably one of my favs for the future.

Out of AOE yesterday when it didn't respect the bottom trend line. I will be looking at getting back in around 2.10, I would think... perhaps 2.26 is another number that it may bounce on. But... it was way overdue for a consolidation. I am free carrying a whole bundle... so I'm not complaining, been in them for ages... and no-one is ever going to be getting the majority of my original holding.

But in general the CBM sector is getting pumped... for some reason. There is no fundamental reason... aside from recent rain... but I really don't think that was a huge issue.

 

[nioka]

AOE may have hit the bottom. It is up 6c now after beind down 9c when I first checked today. Let's hope it will maintain the rise.

 

[chris1983]

AOE may have hit the bottom. It is up 6c now after beind down 9c when I first checked today. Let's hope it will maintain the rise.

Hi Nioka..who knows..I hate selling on the low though. Stay strong with the fundamentals is my motto..unless I really see an announcement saying to bail. I havn't seen that yet from Arrow.

 

[chris1983]

Some very solid support has formed down to 2.40. Would take a really bad message I would think to push it under that level? I would think more that a positive message will be released than a negative..we havn't had any updates for awhile. Anyway I'm happy with the bounce for now. If it gets over 2.60 again the sell side is very thin up to around 2.70

 

[Sean K]

Insert quotes about picking bottoms etc.....

Can't post a chart now, but it might be hitting a trend line from March which could give it some support, although might be more around the 2.25 mark as well actually. Too early to say bounce IMO. Could be a dead cat. There ´s been quite a few stocks slip sliding away the past 3 months with a few bottom pickers getting well caught out.

 

[nioka]

AOE is now in "pre open". Can't find any announcements. Anyone know what is going on? I hope it's good news.

 

[dj_420]

from the chart i see a steady fairly well defined channel until large breakout in march. stock has not really shown a defined trend since then.

support levels on way up were 1.50, 1.75 and 2.00. also showed some support during consolidation period at 1.85 ish.

downside support would be 2.00 and possibly 2.25. as kennas pointed out broke the neckline on previous support.

MACD crossed around the 2.75 area and stochastics has actually shown stock does look oversold on this short term downtrend.

 

[chris1983]

Picking the bottom with fundamentally sound companies is very tough. People thought this was overheated when it ran up to 1.70-190. So how can you judge it. I guess you can try to pick your entry point off the charts but if you continue to wait for it to fall to 2.25 you could miss the basement buying levels? hmm. I'm not one to pick bottoms..I can only pick stocks that show great value..and then I have to wait for the fundamentals of the stock to take over and push them higher.

 

[dj_420]

Picking the bottom with fundamentally sound companies is very tough. People thought this was overheated when it ran up to 1.70-190. So how can you judge it. I guess you can try to pick your entry point off the charts but if you continue to wait for it to fall to 2.25 you could miss the basement buying levels? hmm. I'm not one to pick bottoms..I can only pick stocks that show great value..and then I have to wait for the fundamentals of the stock to take over and push them higher.

i agree with you there. i usually just jump in when i see value. like AED, it had already run 50% from $5 but i wasnt prepared to miss out, jumped on board them at 7.30 ish

anyways, sometimes you can use charts to time a bit better entry

 

[chris1983]

A big 100 k seller came in at 2.52 and that helped hold the price down. Lots were coming underneath him at the close. Very smart. Now its been pulled. He would of been watching this closely. Next seller on the list is at 2.55. Overall Im happy with the recovery this morning after the early panic.

 

[vicb]

Bought in again yesterday on the fall for a short term trade at $2.44.
Lucky enough to sell that lot of shares this morning at the peak of $2.61, return of about 6%.
Still holding a large parcel of shares of AOE which I will be holding for the long haul.
Will be keeping an eye on AOE tomorrow to see if I can find another entry point.
I think it is a case of being oversold.
Although a good call by Kennas with the head and shoulders.
Need some more good news to give the SP a kick along.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Bought in again yesterday on the fall for a short term trade at $2.44.
Lucky enough to sell that lot of shares this morning at the peak of $2.61, return of about 6%.
Still holding a large parcel of shares of AOE which I will be holding for the long haul.
Will be keeping an eye on AOE tomorrow to see if I can find another entry point.
I think it is a case of being oversold.
Although a good call by Kennas with the head and shoulders.
Need some more good news to give the SP a kick along.

The Head shoulders is a hindsight realisation of the expectation of such. It merely shows what one may be looking for, but may not represent the REASON, nor the PROOF, for the fall in price. That will come from what we cannot explain.

I noticed a lot of like minded people got out today. Who was buying? Why were they buying?