Anyone here successful?

[J&M]

Just fish'n as you know.

Ive got the sneaky suspicion that our friendly assassin is hinting that you can earn a living from $5k.

Hopefully I'm wrong and he is suggesting with the right $5k investment a good return is possible.
Id argue that losing the $5k for most novice traders is more likely.

This is true I lost about 5k to 6k when I first started
Then took a hard look at what I was doing
read and read more if you dont understand then ask someone

James

 

[nielsend]

Spend your money on reputable trading books. Then decide on a product / market to trade. Next buy Amibroker and teach yourself how to develop systems / money management (Howard Bandy / Van Tharp). Then, here's the best part and probably the main part, spend approx 60 hrs a week for 50 weeks a year, over 5 years. Record every single intricate detail of what you have done, create a database for everything, then spend countless hours pouring over your records to determine your approach.
That's your apprenticeship done. Then you may have a an edge and start trading ...................................

 

[nielsend]

Then, here's the best part and probably the main part, spend approx 60 hrs a week for 50 weeks a year, over 5 years, doing screen time.

 

[nulla nulla]

Spend your money on reputable trading books. Then decide on a product / market to trade. Next buy Amibroker and teach yourself how to develop systems / money management (Howard Bandy / Van Tharp). Then, here's the best part and probably the main part, spend approx 60 hrs a week for 50 weeks a year, over 5 years. Record every single intricate detail of what you have done, create a database for everything, then spend countless hours pouring over your records to determine your approach.
That's your apprenticeship done. Then you may have a an edge and start trading ...................................

Good post, take note there is no silver bullet or magic formula, 95% perspiration and 5% inspiration.

 

[Sean K]

LOL

 

[joea]

to anibeast

You could say there are 3 basic golden rules to trade.
1 Trend
2 Support and Resistance
3 Volume

I have read the posts to you and will comment on books.
Every book you read has something worthwhile to absorb.
You are after the one book with everything in it. Sorry, not written yet and you would need a wheelbarrow to move it.

I will attempt to explain a chart.
There are 4 stages to any chart that keeps repeating itself over time.
Stage 1 Consolidation.
Stage 2 Advancing.
Stage 3 Top area.
Stage 4 Decline.

Then its starts all over again. (basically)

I have attached a chart of Mak which is a phosphate show.
Now you would have seen on tv that WA and NT have the best economies.
Mak is in NT. Phosphate is in the news.
So on the chart are the 4 stages.
I have two indicators showing its oversold. Volume is so so.
If you were looking at this chart in 28th july as the 13 ma broke the 34 ma and traded it you would have traded stage 2 and sold.

So the point is if the price moves up through the 34 ma it may head to 49 cents. Why because Fibonacci extension shows 49 to 55 cents is the initial
target. Now it would be nice if the volume starts to move up.

Now when the traders digest that this stock is subject to a MOU with an Asian group to secure the funding, you may see it move.

If this all happens, you will see a stock consolidate and move into stage 2.
So that what it is all about. Resistance will be at 45 and 60 cents. My major charting program has a bug and I cannot produce a chart to post, so I am using Incredible Charts.

Cheers

 

[nunthewiser]

Yep.

OR it could get smacked down in to the mid 20,s

lower highs , lower lows all that kinda untechnical stuff.

I personally cant see any buy or entry indicators on that previous chart at this present moment

each to there own tho


i think the OP wanted answers not a TA lesson/ramp tho

 

[ROE]

to anibeast
I will attempt to explain a chart.
There are 4 stages to any chart that keeps repeating itself over time.
Stage 1 Consolidation.
Stage 2 Advancing.
Stage 3 Top area.
Stage 4 Decline.
Cheers

What about 5 years charts on
ONT TRS and DMP
where do I get in and out? I couldnt figure it out even throw in the GFC in the mix so I just keep hang on to it

 

[noirua]

?????

Fair enough with those ????? I should have said: I took a lot of very high risks when I was a lot younger and had very little to fall back on; It was just not worth it.
Very many years later when I now have assets and pensions and additional pension rights not yet taken. It is worth taking higher risks now to try and achieve those goals that I set out to achieve but failed on before.
So a new investor should only, in my view, gamble a few dollars a week on the lotto.
Invest widely in very many sectors; this means investing in other countries as well because Australia isn't the only country in the World and who knows for certain what will happen further down the line.

 

[joea]

What about 5 years charts on
ONT TRS and DMP
where do I get in and out? I couldnt figure it out even throw in the GFC in the mix so I just keep hang on to it

Hi.
In answer to that, those three stocks are probably doing you proud by buying and holding.

Because there are so many different types of traders with so many types of software, I see some of the new traders being confused.
If you are investing in quality stocks you may not want to get out.

I concentrate on emerging stocks. So I may trade in and out then hold.

The new traders are advised to purchase complex software.
Initially they may not need a complex software.
Incredible charts is cheap, $220 for Premium version. It has Dow 15 minutes delayed. It also has a scanning area, where you can share other traders scans while you learn. By utilising this software as the entry level, the new traders are not overextending themselves.
IC has its own forum, and Colin Twiggs produces a weekly newsletter on what USA, XJO and COMMODIES are doing each week. (or his opinion)

So you do not require a complex software to start trading.

Incidently, in all three stocks the stages are pretty clear. However when the charts are compressed for posting, its hard to see the moving average crossovers. Most traders would be happy to have them.

Finally, I was attempting to show a fellow trader an emerging stock that he can watch. He does not have to trade it.
New traders maybe better off trading the top 20 or top 100, rather going for rags to riches stocks. After all there are not too many like FMG. And it had the WA government involved.

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Then, here's the best part and probably the main part, spend approx 60 hrs a week for 50 weeks a year, over 5 years, doing screen time.

OR
Develop a proven positive expectancy method which has been tested correctly and spend around 20 mins a day tops!

What no one has pointed out is that ANY THREE rules or more for that matter need to be tested to prove a positive expectancy in any trading environment.
Without that you simply have a list of rules which could lead you to ruin.
Most traders I see and meet have no idea if long-term their method can let alone will return a solid profit most have no idea how to find out. but are happy to trade with their "rules" and no proof they are giving them an edge.

The above is clearly evident in the posts above.
Sounds good but how do you KNOW its long term profitable.
If you can post up some results then I'll believe you.

Here is one of mine as an example I KNOW its profitable.
More to the point I have a blueprint which I can follow and monitor daily.
You either have to learn how to do this stuff OR find an educator who trades this way and follow them.

 

[joea]

Thanks T/A

Well said.

In the perfect world there could be a post section for new traders looked after by about 3 mentors. They would learn to trade quickly and profitable
one would think. I see HotCopper traders had a day in Brisbane to compare
notes.

It is clear on this forum by the posts that there are some traders and some drovers. However we all have to start somewhere. "no offence to anyone".
We all have to admit we went up a few gullies, when we started.

That is the one benefit of a software forum. I was in one with Market Analyser, and there was a post for trading plans. So anybody could improve their plan by looking at others and back testing.
Obviously not everbody presented theirs but it was good education.
By gee you learn quickly with the correct info.

Obviously traders such as yourself may present info. from time to time that is
worthy of following.

As they say, "its all in the charts" if you want to look fo it.

Cheers

 

[lamta20]

Hey i've been trading since last year in december, and i've been fortunate to get about 5-9% returns every month, which is good consistency, and if you work it out in 1 year thats good returns on your money. But in saying that i have spent 14k on courses and it has help me tremendously.

 

[$20shoes]

Hey i've been trading since last year in december, and i've been fortunate to get about 5-9% returns every month, which is good consistency, and if you work it out in 1 year thats good returns on your money. But in saying that i have spent 14k on courses and it has help me tremendously.

Sheesh...the first 7 months of this year where sheer bloody torture for me...I felt as though I was getting in the market each day just to take another kick to the nuts. If you want to be successful, you NEED to know that your system has a positive expectancy. It gets you through to good times like the last quarter has produced.

If you trend follow (28-45% win rate), trading is about 10% satisfaction, and the rest is tedium and pain.

Weary? Yes I am. :

 

[Assasin]

Just fish'n as you know.

Ive got the sneaky suspicion that our friendly assassin is hinting that you can earn a living from $5k.

Hopefully I'm wrong and he is suggesting with the right $5k investment a good return is possible.
Id argue that losing the $5k for most novice traders is more likely.

Come on Tech/a, you saw that I wrote a good earning not a good living. There is a massive difference.
I thought I was being baited a bit with your question.
You've now made my list. You owe me some assistance on a PM. LOL
Cheers

 

[tminus]

I will attempt to explain a chart.
There are 4 stages to any chart that keeps repeating itself over time.
Stage 1 Consolidation.
Stage 2 Advancing.
Stage 3 Top area.
Stage 4 Decline.

Is there a common term for this categorisation, as Stan Weinstein uses this in his 1986 book.

 

[Sir Osisofliver]

OR
Develop a proven positive expectancy method which has been tested correctly and spend around 20 mins a day tops!

What no one has pointed out is that ANY THREE rules or more for that matter need to be tested to prove a positive expectancy in any trading environment.
Without that you simply have a list of rules which could lead you to ruin.
Most traders I see and meet have no idea if long-term their method can let alone will return a solid profit most have no idea how to find out. but are happy to trade with their "rules" and no proof they are giving them an edge.

The above is clearly evident in the posts above.
Sounds good but how do you KNOW its long term profitable.
If you can post up some results then I'll believe you.

Here is one of mine as an example I KNOW its profitable.
More to the point I have a blueprint which I can follow and monitor daily.
You either have to learn how to do this stuff OR find an educator who trades this way and follow them.

Hi Tech,

We've had chats before about systems but I hadn't seen a summary like the one you display here. Probably because I've not been paying attention

Mind if I ask a question?

In the ten year period that is referred to you've had a variety of dominant market styles. Does your system work in all of these or did you have to go through some process to learn which markets your system poorly performed?

Cheers

Sir O

 

[Boggo]

This my Metastock ASX 300 system, the dip seems to be in line with the dip in the market for 2008 to 2009.

What does yours do after 2008 tech/a ?

(click to expand)

 

[tech/a]

Mind if I ask a question?

In the ten year period that is referred to you've had a variety of dominant market styles. Does your system work in all of these or did you have to go through some process to learn which markets your system poorly performed?

Not at all particularly if they are good ones--this is.

My experience is that systems will perform within a parameter of tested results provided the market isnt radically different to the data set used in testing. So a GFC will usually do the trick.

To design a system which "works"(Meaning performs profitably) in ALL market conditions isnt very likely as I doubt we have data sets which cover ALL market conditions.

All a system does (as you well know) is structure a set of conditions that if applied repetitively over time will produce a longterm outcome similar to those returned in testing.
The trick is to know when trading starts to operate outside the data set tested.
This can normally be seen in reflected results and seeing the system start to give results not seen in testing.
EG
Longer string of losses
Greater drawdown.
A large number of trades exiting.

You can of course develop switches which can turn a system on or off.
Most use index switches but Equity curve switches are also reputedly very good.Here the system keeps running in the background but new trades are not taken until the switch is in go mode.

Finally I think there should be a number of systems running (ideally) all with their own switching mechanism so something will be out performing something else at various times of Market performance bothe bullish and bearish.

This of course would only suit the sophisticated investor who would need around 3-5 systems each with approx $50K min operating.

A long topic Systems which may need a new thread.
If they took the ban off Weird (Dave) he would have some good input as well as he is an experienced Systems designer.
Im sure he'd behave!


BOGGO
Similar but Thats what youd expect! Its a long only system.

 

[joea]

Is there a common term for this categorisation, as Stan Weinstein uses this in his 1986 book.

Yes this is from his book.

I have leant the book to people to read the one chapter and make a comment.
One comment was " the light is shining brighter". Another "the light came on".

My software has Relative Strength Comparison similar to what is used in the book. That way I use software to compare stock to stock, or sectors to XJO.
i.e. best stock in the best commodity in the best sector.

Cheers.