Anyone buying banks yet?

[greggles]

Is the bottom finally in for the Big 4 banks? They've all had quite a bounce since last week.

 

[luutzu]

Is the bottom finally in for the Big 4 banks? They've all had quite a bounce since last week.

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Might be safer to stay away from the banks for a while I reckon.

The Royal Commission; the coming property nightmare... loads of bad debt.

 

[Mr ABC]

...

The Royal Commission; the coming property nightmare... loads of bad debt.

These are already being factored in the current share price which is attractive on a fundamental valuation.

Given our market is so narrow, it’s more about how we manage exposure to the big 4.

 

[luutzu]

These are already being factored in the current share price which is attractive on a fundamental valuation.

Given our market is so narrow, it’s more about how we manage exposure to the big 4.

I don't know if it's factored in or not. I'm willing to bet the market will not know either when the banks report their mortgage delinquency numbers and such.

But yea, that's as far as I go with market timing. If people see value in bank stocks now then of course by all means.

 

[sptrawler]

Might be safer to stay away from the banks for a while I reckon.

The Royal Commission; the coming property nightmare... loads of bad debt.

Yes I think you're right, the Government wasted their time putting a tax on them, they'll get nothing out of that.
Probably a good time to sell.
Do you want to do an off market transfer? and save the brokerage?

 

[luutzu]

Yes I think you're right, the Government wasted their time putting a tax on them, they'll get nothing out of that.
Probably a good time to sell.
Do you want to do an off market transfer? and save the brokerage?

I sold out of CBA about two years ago. Also sold out of QBE a year before that.

But then I never really understand banking and insurance anyway.

All I know is that any one that's been lending to OZ property investors will most likely call Canberra for a bailout soon enough.

 

[sptrawler]

I sold out of CBA about two years ago. Also sold out of QBE a year before that.

But then I never really understand banking and insurance anyway.

All I know is that any one that's been lending to OZ property investors will most likely call Canberra for a bailout soon enough.

Not while you have 400,000/ PA increase in population, and both sides of politics, pushing population growth, albeit in different ways.
Are you assuming that, everyone that can't afford their mortgage, won't be able to find a buyer?
Or that if prices fall, everyone that has a mortgage has to sell, or can't continue their payments?
Or are you listening to the white noise?

 

[luutzu]

Not while you have 400,000/ PA increase in population, and both sides of politics, pushing population growth, albeit in different ways.
Are you assuming that, everyone that can't afford their mortgage, won't be able to find a buyer?
Or that if prices fall, everyone that has a mortgage has to sell, or can't continue their payments?
Or are you listening to the white noise?

Does that 400K p.a. population growth include adults, married people only?

But regardless, that's assuming a need or a want is a demand. It's not. Not in an economic sense.

Real demand needs cash to back it up. Otherwise it's just a dream.

i.e. we all want a few houses don't we? One for ourselves, one for investment income; one each for the kids? A summer house by the ocean?

Demand for that is everywhere... needs cash to make it a proper demand though.

------------

Well, property will eventually have to come down to level where people can afford it. If they can't afford a $1M house, they'll either rent or share or go homeless.

And if enough of them can't afford it.. lost of a job, interest rate hike, cost of living hike, kids and accidents. Then either the investor will have to leave it empty, pay the interest like they don't care... or lower their prices and cut their lost.

If enough people are making loses, the bank will either have to extend the term or take some of the lost or ask for a bailout while they break a few knee caps.

 

[sptrawler]

Does that 400K p.a. population growth include adults, married people only?

But regardless, that's assuming a need or a want is a demand. It's not. Not in an economic sense.

Real demand needs cash to back it up. Otherwise it's just a dream.

i.e. we all want a few houses don't we? One for ourselves, one for investment income; one each for the kids? A summer house by the ocean?

Demand for that is everywhere... needs cash to make it a proper demand though.

------------

Well, property will eventually have to come down to level where people can afford it. If they can't afford a $1M house, they'll either rent or share or go homeless.

And if enough of them can't afford it.. lost of a job, interest rate hike, cost of living hike, kids and accidents. Then either the investor will have to leave it empty, pay the interest like they don't care... or lower their prices and cut their lost.

If enough people are making loses, the bank will either have to extend the term or take some of the lost or ask for a bailout while they break a few knee caps.

It would be really nice if capitalism worked that way, but from what I've seen it doesn't.

There will be a drop, and those over extended will have to sell, those who aren't won't and those who own the property don't care.

Over here in the West, there has been a huge drop over the last 3 years, but it hasn't caused a crisis.
Maybe it will in Sydney, but I wouldn't bank on it, prices will drop people will upgrade and others will join the market.
Just my opinion.

 

[Triathlete]

Is the bottom finally in for the Big 4 banks? They've all had quite a bounce since last week

While your daily chart on CBA shows a bounce in price the longer term monthly chart is still technically in a downtrend...same with the weekly chart....

I would look at it coming back as far as $74.94 and even $76.76 then reversing and heading down once again......

 

[PZ99]

Anyone diving in? I'm going with NAB for starters

 

[sptrawler]

Anyone diving in? I'm going with NAB for starters

They could still have a way to go, if the Royal Commission, gives some nasty directives. Long term I think they will be fine, the Government isn't going to shoot its feet off. I already am heavily weighted to the banks, so I will try and do a bit of bottom picking.

 

[PZ99]

They could still have a way to go, if the Royal Commission, gives some nasty directives. Long term I think they will be fine, the Government isn't going to shoot its feet off. I already am heavily weighted to the banks, so I will try and do a bit of bottom picking.

Happily I'm not too concerned about the Royal Commission. It's a blip on the radar the banks actually built themselves. I took a small position and will average down so it's all good

NAB divvies are almost 10% a year including the franking credits at this current price.

 

[willy1111]

NAB divvies are almost 10% a year including the franking credits at this current price.

Last time the grossed up yield was that good was in the depths of GFC was it not. Quite a bit.of growth rebounded from there.

Franking credits may be hit hard by Shorten, maybe quite a few are waiting for the election before diving in.

 

[So_Cynical]

Franking credits may be hit hard by Shorten, maybe quite a few are waiting for the election before diving in.

Its mostly SMSF's affected by the new franking credits thing, what will those people do? whats the alternative? they will mostly cop it sweet and get a 8% yield instead of 9.5

 

[dutchie]

ANZ at a critical point today....


(Elliot wave symmetrical triangle.)

 

[Porper]

ANZ at a critical point today....

View attachment 89673
(Elliot wave symmetrical triangle.)

I have been waiting patiently for these consolidation patterns to complete. However, those patterns are failing. WBC has already broken down out of the Descending triangle. Others are close to doing the same. If this transpires then zigzags are going to unfold which offer several more months of weakness.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

they will have to start cutting dividends

once again the average shareholder will be the biggest loser

 

[HelloU]

they will have to start cutting dividends

once again the average shareholder will be the biggest loser

and that statement, to me, is the game right now.

xtra govt tax thing, fines/cash back to customers etc ......
nobody will really know the value until report time rolls around ......
that is the share market game ....

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The banks are stuffed.

Buy CBA at anything under $40.

Take out yer dead.

gg