Anyone buying banks yet?

lukeamac · 10 May 2017

Newbie here so go easy on me if my line of thinking is flawed as this thread develops.

Anyone looking at buying the banks yet? "Levy" to be passed on to consumers through fees so shouldn't hurt them too much should it? Guess the lending market has tightened up though so growth in that space will be tougher for them.

Cheers Luke

Quant · 10 May 2017

lukeamac said:
Newbie here so go easy on me if my line of thinking is flawed as this thread develops.

Anyone looking at buying the banks yet? "Levy" to be passed on to consumers through fees so shouldn't hurt them too much should it? Guess the lending market has tightened up though so growth in that space will be tougher for them.

Cheers Luke

I think banks got a ways to go before I be buying em , I'm just guessing at this stage , but my ' man ' will be sending me some figures later today , but id suggest an approx 3-5% hit to earnings

lukeamac · 10 May 2017

ANZ specifically down 12% in recent times, have to be finding some opportunity here soon surely?

lukeamac · 10 May 2017

Quant said:
I think banks got a ways to go before I be buying em , I'm just guessing at this stage , but my ' man ' will be sending me some figures later today , but id suggest an approx 3-5% hit to earnings

Factored in by now though isn't it?

Quant · 10 May 2017

lukeamac said:
Factored in by now though isn't it?

well buy away then , not sure how its factored myself given budget was only last night but carry on , you seem convinced ...

lukeamac · 10 May 2017

Quant said:
well buy away then , not sure how its factored myself given budget was only last night but carry on , you seem convinced ...

Relax, discussion is how we, mainly I learn. That levy was speculated yesterday before the budget though which was the reason there was big wipe off yesterday?

Roller_1 · 10 May 2017

lukeamac said:
Relax, discussion is how we, mainly I learn. That levy was speculated yesterday before the budget though which was the reason there was big wipe off yesterday?

Agree that the big banks/ instos would have known about the levy in the budget. Probably why they sold off yesterday then all the retail guys had a panic sell this morning but seems to be bouncing back in the short term. Good for mean reversion guys like myself

lukeamac · 10 May 2017

Roller_1 said:
Agree that the big banks/ instos would have known about the levy in the budget. Probably why they sold off yesterday then all the retail guys had a panic sell this morning but seems to be bouncing back in the short term. Good for mean reversion guys like myself

Thanks, appreciate some thinking behind the concept.

Roller_1 · 10 May 2017

lukeamac said:
Thanks, appreciate some thinking behind the concept.

Some fundamental guys would be able to elaborate i'm sure

skc · 10 May 2017

Quant said:
well buy away then , not sure how its factored myself given budget was only last night but carry on , you seem convinced ...

skc said:
Sell the rumour buy the fact... now that the transaction tax has been announced, it wouldn't surprise me if banks are flat or even green tomorrow. The tax is in essence an invitation for the banks to raise their interest rate for borrowers independent of the RBA. So that's why we are seeing the $AUD falling (as prospect of RBA raising rates is diminished). You'd also expect the regional banks might gain some market share as a result. So there are some of the thesis to build trades around tomorrow.

After opening down 1.5-2%, banks are now well off their lows with ANZ, NAB and CBA close to flat (it's 11:40am). Regional banks are up 3-4%.

Plan the trade, trade the plan. Closed ~2/3 of the positions now. It may or may not carry on this afternoon but the easier bit of the trade is done.

lukeamac · 10 May 2017

skc said:
After opening down 1.5-2%, banks are now well off their lows with ANZ, NAB and CBA close to flat (it's 11:40am). Regional banks are up 3-4%.

Plan the trade, trade the plan. Closed ~2/3 of the positions now. It may or may not carry on this afternoon but the easier bit of the trade is done.

So I was on the right path here then? Bit late to the party but my thinking was along the right lines?

Toyota Lexcen · 10 May 2017

the big4 are well undervalued,

in the competitive market they are still going okay, the problem with aus shares/businesses is they can't takeover anybody and they are regulated too heavily, way too heavily

at the moment we have 4 banks all with the same interest rates,

ianna · 11 May 2017

For what it's worth I sold ANZ in January at 31 and a bit and bought back in yesterday at 28.75. 5.5% fully franked. Looked inviting but will be keeping a close eye on SP.

lukeamac · 11 May 2017

ianna said:
For what it's worth I sold ANZ in January at 31 and a bit and bought back in yesterday at 28.75. 5.5% fully franked. Looked inviting but will be keeping a close eye on SP.

What's SP? See this used everywhere

SuperGlue · 11 May 2017

Bang on this bank.
The cheapest bank.
If you put money in this bank.
You might go bankrupt.
If it doesn't go bankrupt.
You'll be on their dividend bank-roll.

Beware the Brexit.
Get ready to exit.

Beware the fluctuating currency.
Buy "CYB" if you fancy.

Don't know company fundamentals.
Buy "CYB" if you are mental.

Cheapest bank around town
Buy "CYB" if you are mentally sound.

Please do your own research.
Easiest is Google search.

Loss can be brisk.
So buy at you own risk.

The Bear · 11 May 2017

lukeamac said:
What's SP? See this used everywhere

Share Price or Stock Price I'm guessing.

OmegaTrader · 11 May 2017

lukeamac said:
Newbie here so go easy on me if my line of thinking is flawed as this thread develops.

Anyone looking at buying the banks yet? "Levy" to be passed on to consumers through fees so shouldn't hurt them too much should it? Guess the lending market has tightened up though so growth in that space will be tougher for them.

Cheers Luke

I remember I thought oh yeah Asx will open down due to big banks etc etc.

Yesterday I think the market when up. From memory the big four were down about .5% when I looked at it and the competition BOQ, Bendigo and adelaide etc were up about .5% or so. Was part of that due to the news. Probably IDK. What will the long term impact be of hitting IDK. Will it come into law or be repealed IDK. Will the banks still be psudeo backed by the government fi the **** hits the fan. Probably IDK

Look into the fundamentals for yourself and Do your own research. For value the holding period would be years and years.

That is all I know as a newbie.

frosty · 12 May 2017

most banks are also trading or will trading ex-dividend around this time. this also will effect SP

Quant · 12 May 2017

All I will add to buying banks mid May is that its a rare thing for June XFJ to make a HL than MAY , as a swing trade you will do better to wait till june swing low more times than not . for those short term trading banks I'm sure you can find a reason to buy a few times a week but I am referring to buying banks in regards to a multi week hold . I might be wrong this time but i'd suggest the odds of that are slim to none .... carry on

Banks have a lot more headwinds than they did 6 weeks ago ( APRA and budget levy ) and that is weighing on outlook and I would suggest will continue to

lukeamac · 13 May 2017

Quant said:
All I will add to buying banks mid May is that its a rare thing for June XFJ to make a HL than MAY , as a swing trade you will do better to wait till june swing low more times than not . for those short term trading banks I'm sure you can find a reason to buy a few times a week but I am referring to buying banks in regards to a multi week hold . I might be wrong this time but i'd suggest the odds of that are slim to none .... carry on

Banks have a lot more headwinds than they did 6 weeks ago ( APRA and budget levy ) and that is weighing on outlook and I would suggest will continue to

After timing if I've ever seen it. In and out already for profit on 5 banks. Thanks though for actually adding something constructive, albeit after the event.

Anyone buying banks yet?

lukeamac

Quant

lukeamac

lukeamac

Quant

lukeamac

Roller_1

lukeamac

Roller_1

skc

Goldmember

lukeamac

Toyota Lexcen

ianna

lukeamac

SuperGlue

The Bear

OmegaTrader

frosty

Quant

lukeamac

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