Any followers of Jesus here???????

[Chris45]

With over 150 quakes a week over the world thats 7800 a year

Yes, but how many of these quakes make headlines around the world like the Christchurch quake did? As I said before, most of them are too insignificant to even rate a mention.

Sure, pick a date at random and there will almost certainly be an earthquake somewhere, but would you care to predict the date of the next major earthquake that makes world headlines because of the destruction it causes in a large city?

 

[Ruby]

Yes, but how many of these quakes make headlines around the world like the Christchurch quake did? As I said before, most of them are too insignificant to even rate a mention.

Sure, pick a date at random and there will almost certainly be an earthquake somewhere, but would you care to predict the date of the next major earthquake that makes world headlines because of the destruction it causes in a large city?

Chris, Weatherbill did NOT predict the Christchurch earthquake. He specifically predicted one on the west Coast of USA which would devastate the whole of the west coast. This did not happen and therefore WB was wrong. As others have said, there are earthquakes every day somewhere in the world. On any day of the year, somewhere in the world there will be some of the following happening..... extreme weather patterns, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, violent storms, hurricanes, tornados, bushfires, tidal waves etc, etc. These are everyday occurrences in our world.

To credit WB with a correct prediction would be like me saying "I predict a twister in Louisianna tomorrow tomorrow" and then claiming prophetic powers because there is a violent storm in Sydney. Bit of a stretch, don't you think?

Do you think that if I predicted the sun will rise tomorrow I might be correct?

 

[Chris45]

Ruby, I agree Weatherbill was not 100% perfect with his prediction but I do think it’s rather unfair that he received the deluge of scorn and ridicule that he did. I don’t know what the probability of correctly picking the date of a major earthquake is but I imagine it’s fairly small – perhaps less than 0.005, so I just think it’s interesting that the quake transpired as it did. You apparently see nothing unusual about it so we obviously see things differently.

 

[tech/a]

Ruby, I agree Weatherbill was not 100% perfect with his prediction but I do think it’s rather unfair that he received the deluge of scorn and ridicule that he did. I don’t know what the probability of correctly picking the date of a major earthquake is but I imagine it’s fairly small – perhaps less than 0.005, so I just think it’s interesting that the quake transpired as it did. You apparently see nothing unusual about it so we obviously see things differently.

Hang on the guy wasnt predicting a major quake.
He was/is predicting California falling into the ocean and the maga tsunami that results will wipe out FIJI/JAPAN/West Coast of America and anything else that gets in its way.
This is how easy it is This month possibly 14th to 18th of Sept there will be a quake of over 7.
I know this because Im a Quack!
Deal me in.

 

[Ruby]

Ruby, I agree Weatherbill was not 100% perfect with his prediction but I do think it’s rather unfair that he received the deluge of scorn and ridicule that he did. I don’t know what the probability of correctly picking the date of a major earthquake is but I imagine it’s fairly small – perhaps less than 0.005, so I just think it’s interesting that the quake transpired as it did. You apparently see nothing unusual about it so we obviously see things differently.

Chris, why do you think it's unfair that WB was scorned? You yourself deferred to Stephen Hawking and others of his ilk, and then wanted to give credence to an interpretation of a sequence of cards drawn out of a deck. Opposite ends of the stick!

WB wasn't only "not 100% perfect", he was completely wrong. He can't be "a little bit correct" about this any more than you can be a "little bit pregnant". Anyone can predict that an earthquake will occur tomorrow with as much certainty as one can predict the sun will rise. Let's face it, Weatherbill's prediction was a complete dud! He predicted a tsunami and a 'mega' quake that would wipe out the west coast of USA. It didn't happen. He was 100% wrong.

No, I see nothing unusual about the NZ quake happening when it did. It is important to keep a sense of perspective here. The NZ quake was expected, they are not unusual. It happened to coincide with the date of Weatherbill's very different prediction. There is no reason to infer any supernatural meaning from that.

(My bolds in the quote from Chris45)

 

[Ruby]

I don’t know what the probability of correctly picking the date of a major earthquake is but I imagine it’s fairly small – perhaps less than 0.005...........

Incidentally, a quick Google search revealed that there have been 8 earthquakes this year of magnitude 6 and above, so the chances of predicting the date of a major earthquake so far this year would have been 1 in 30 - one a month. Quite good odds, I would say.

 

[Chris45]

This is how easy it is This month possibly 14th to 18th of Sept there will be a quake of over 7.

Bit vague there Tech so could you specify a particular date (your timezone) and also name the city affected so we can look for coincidences when it happens? Also, it has to be a quake that makes headlines around the world, otherwise it doesn't count.

Ruby, what I'm saying is that there are too many known unknowns for me to be able to completely rule out what we currently regard as 'supernatural'. Not so long ago, disease and mental illnesses were attributed to supernatural influences. If the best minds in the world are now talking about parallel universes then I think anything is possible.

If someone were to accurately predict the date of the next primary turning point in the XJO and said it was going to be a top, but it turned out to be a bottom instead, would you not give him at least some credit for getting the date right, or does it have to be all or nothing?

I've made a few reasonably accurate predictions in the last twenty years so does that qualify me for the highly esteemed 'duck' status?

Incidentally, a quick Google search revealed that there have been 8 earthquakes this year of magnitude 6 and above, so the chances of predicting the date of a major earthquake so far this year would have been 1 in 30 - one a month. Quite good odds, I would say.

Did they make headlines around the world? The last one I remember was Haiti.

 

[tech/a]

Bit vague there Tech so could you specify a particular date (your timezone) and also name the city affected so we can look for coincidences when it happens? Also, it has to be a quake that makes headlines around the world, otherwise it doesn't count.

Seems the tuning fork is out---I keep getting the joker!

 

[tech/a]

Probability of a 7.0 quake in the next year in L/A area .005%(Pik 2)
Probability of a mega quake 9.0 in the next year .000% (Pik 1)

 

[trainspotter]

OOOOOeerrr ... this thread has taken a turn for the worst. We are now justifying a nutjob with parallel universes and Stephen Hawking principles.

This godbothering, card reading psychophant was/is predicting California falling into the ocean and the maga tsunami that results will wipe out FIJI/JAPAN/West Coast of America and anything else that gets in its way.

Here is what I predict ..... there will be another earthquake somewhere in the world. There will be a flood somewhere in the world. There will be a tsunami somewhere in the world. There will be a catastrophic event somewhere in the world.

AND I don't need a set of stacked cards to predict this.

 

[Julia]

No, I see nothing unusual about the NZ quake happening when it did. It is important to keep a sense of perspective here. The NZ quake was expected, they are not unusual.

Not unusual???? As someone who spent my entire life in Christchurch until coming here to live relatively recently, I can assure that the event of the weekend is hugely unusual. Perhaps you have no real idea of the level of devastation, Ruby. Thousands of homes are either in ruins or have to be demolished. They are still experiencing aftershocks.

It will take billions of dollars, huge human effort, and more than a year for even the stoic New Zealanders to repair what has happened.

Meantime, hundreds of people whose families' homes are also destroyed are having to sleep on the floor of school halls etc.

Ruby, this quake was of around the same magnitude as the one in Haiti which killed nearly 300,000 people, for god's sake. And you don't think it was unusual or noteworthy?

It's simply a tribute to the good building codes in NZ and the fact that most people were asleep when it began that there has not been significant loss of life.

New Zealand is Australia's closest neighbour, and supposed to be the object of genuine affection under all the ribbing which occurs on both sides.
I'm blown away by the fact that there has been no appeal for any funds to assist the people of Christchurch.

But hell, who cares, nothing unusual happening there.

 

[derty]

Incidentally, a quick Google search revealed that there have been 8 earthquakes this year of magnitude 6 and above, so the chances of predicting the date of a major earthquake so far this year would have been 1 in 30 - one a month. Quite good odds, I would say.

Not sure where you got those numbers from Ruby but they are a bit off the mark. In the last 30 days there have been 8 quakes greater than mag 6 and 3 greater than mag 7 (That is with the site recording the NZ quake as 5.1 as they seemed to have only recorded the smaller initial quake that preceded the main two big ones by a few seconds).
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/last30.html (last 30 days from when you click this link)

When you look at the global averages for earthquakes you can expect around 200 magnitude 6 quakes and 20 magnitude 7 quakes. So there is a reasonable chance that one greater than 6.0 will occur on every second day. Also bearing in mind the relative devastation (read newsworthiness) of the quake also is dependant on the depth, the direction of movement of the shifting blocks of earth, the proximity to population masses, the resilience of the structures and if it occurs in 1st world or 3rd world centres.

 

[Julia]

Interesting chart, derty, thank you.
So a magnitude 7 earthquake is equivalent to the Hiroshima bomb.
Still think it's nothing unusual Ruby?

 

[derty]

Ruby, this quake was of around the same magnitude as the one in Haiti which killed nearly 300,000 people, for god's sake. And you don't think it was unusual or noteworthy?

As I mentioned in the previous post the effect of an earthquake is dependant on quite a few factors with magnitude just being one of them. e.g the Haiti quake had a magnitude of 7.0 and killed almost 300,00 people, where as the magnitude 8.8 in Chile had a waveform 63 times greater than the Haiti quake and released just over 500 times the energy and only little over 500 people were killed.

It's simply a tribute to the good building codes in NZ and the fact that most people were asleep when it began that there has not been significant loss of life.

I was reading somewhere today that this quake may have been a blessing in disguise, as due to the lack of any recent large earthquakes, Christchurch has a lot of older brick buildings whereas most of the other high risk cities don't any more. If you look at the bright side, this quake has allowed most of those brittle buildings to be removed with no loss of life whereas in a really big quake they would be totally disaggregated piles of bricks.

New Zealand is Australia's closest neighbour, and supposed to be the object of genuine affection under all the ribbing which occurs on both sides.
I'm blown away by the fact that there has been no appeal for any funds to assist the people of Christchurch.

It may be that it is always Wellington that is the place that is expected to get wrecked sooner or later as it is based on the Alpine fault whereas Christchurch is located to the south of the transverse structure that joins the Alpine Fault to the main northern fault structure and was always at less of a risk.

I was told that due to the fact that for Wellington it is a case of when, not if the place gets levelled an international response system is already in place. Immediately following the quake the centre of Wellington will initially be abandoned and left to it's own devices as it is expected to be levelled and ruptured gas mains and no water supply will make it extremely dangerous. Then various nations have response roles locked in. The USA will be supplying heavy lifting equipment. The Japanese will be supplying the bulk of the experienced rescue personnel. A combined effort between the EU, the UK and Canada will be supplying temporary shelter and foodstuffs. And Australia will be supplying 500,000 replacement Kiwi's.

Interesting chart, derty, thank you.
So a magnitude 7 earthquake is equivalent to the Hiroshima bomb.
Still think it's nothing unusual Ruby?

The Hiroshima bomb was actually a bit more powerful than a magnitude 6 quake.

 

[Chris45]

I'm blown away by the fact that there has been no appeal for any funds to assist the people of Christchurch.

Good point Julia! I suppose our Govt is bogged down with other matters at the moment but I hope that assistance will be forthcoming when they finally get their act together. I'm very relieved that there were no deaths or serious injuries there and I think some help is already on its way:

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...ities-offer-nz-assistance-20100904-14v3u.html

Australian charities are preparing to assist their brother and sister organisations across the ditch after an earthquake caused massive damage on New Zealand's South Island.

The 7.1 magnitude quake, which struck near Christchurch at about 4.30am local time (2.30am AEST) on Saturday, has destroyed buildings and infrastructure.

St Vincent de Paul Society National President Syd Tutton said he had sent a notice across to the New Zealand St Vincent de Paul society to offer assistance.

"We'll certainly provide as much assistance as we can," he said.

"It's just a little bit hard to ascertain what assistance is required at this stage."

"But fortunately there have been no reports of deaths."

A spokeswoman for Australia's Salvation Army director of emergency services Norm Archer Been said they had also been in contact with their New Zealand counterparts to offer assistance.

"We're open to any requests that are made, but it's difficult to know at this stage the extent of the damage," the spokeswoman said.

"It's possible an appeal could be launched as well."

 

[Chris45]

Probability of a 7.0 quake in the next year in L/A area .005%(Pik 2)

Therefore, the probability of a minimum 7.0 quake on a specific date in the next year in L/A area is about 0.00001. Not very good odds but, come on Tech, you can do it. L/A is now the specified area so just think of a number between 1 and 31 and then a number between 1 and 12.

Anyone who could nail the March-09 bottom like you did is an inspired guru. I'm not sure which force is inspiring you (perhaps the same force that inspires Tom Joseph), and the fact that you choose to be represented by a black duck worries me a bit (cue Exorcist theme), but when King Duck speaks, my humble ears will be straining to catch every golden word.

OK, so this is all just a bit of fun but wouldn't we all get a shock if you did call it correctly!!! I doubt that I'll put any money on it but I'm certainly all ears for your next call on the XJO.

 

[Ruby]

Ruby, this quake was of around the same magnitude as the one in Haiti which killed nearly 300,000 people, for god's sake. And you don't think it was unusual or noteworthy?

Julia, I am well aware of the level of devastation in Christchurch, and I fully acknowledge how dreadful it is for everyone, but as demonstrated by other posters, a mag 7 earthquake is not unusual. I did not say it is not notewothy. Of course it is! Please do not misqote me.
(My bolds and underline)

Not sure where you got those numbers from Ruby but they are a bit off the mark. In the last 30 days there have been 8 quakes greater than mag 6 and 3 greater than mag 7 (That is with the site recording the NZ quake as 5.1 as they seemed to have only recorded the smaller initial quake that preceded the main two big ones by a few seconds).
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/last30.html (last 30 days from when you click this link)

When you look at the global averages for earthquakes you can expect around 200 magnitude 6 quakes and 20 magnitude 7 quakes. So there is a reasonable chance that one greater than 6.0 will occur on every second day. Also bearing in mind the relative devastation (read newsworthiness) of the quake also is dependant on the depth, the direction of movement of the shifting blocks of earth, the proximity to population masses, the resilience of the structures and if it occurs in 1st world or 3rd world centres.

Derty, as I said it was just a quick Google search to demonstrate the point that such earthquakes are not uncommon. I can't quote the link, and I am quite willing to stand corrrected.

 

[Ruby]

Ruby, what I'm saying is that there are too many known unknowns for me to be able to completely rule out what we currently regard as 'supernatural'. Not so long ago, disease and mental illnesses were attributed to supernatural influences. If the best minds in the world are now talking about parallel universes then I think anything is possible.

Chris, I agree with you that there are still many unknowns, that it is important to have an open mind, and that anything is possible. Where I disagree is in giving credence to Weatherbill for making a partially accurate prediction, which in my opinion he did not. I'll leave it there.

 

[nomore4s]

Ruby, I agree Weatherbill was not 100% perfect with his prediction but I do think it’s rather unfair that he received the deluge of scorn and ridicule that he did. I don’t know what the probability of correctly picking the date of a major earthquake is but I imagine it’s fairly small – perhaps less than 0.005, so I just think it’s interesting that the quake transpired as it did. You apparently see nothing unusual about it so we obviously see things differently.

Hahaha, is it any wonder cults and nutbags like Weatherbill survive and manage to fleece people of their hard earned.

The fact is Weatherbill's prediction was wrong but just because a major event happens on the other side of the world at around the same time he gets credited with predicting it - you have got to be kidding me

 

[Mofra]

I'm blown away by the fact that there has been no appeal for any funds to assist the people of Christchurch.

1 city, large number of insured premises, no loss of life, first world country.

Compare that to Pakistan with millions homeless, much of their fertile land destroyed, little infrastructure, and currupt gorvernment meaning aid organisations are setting up their own distribution networks.

I think people would be outraged if there was a wide-ranging appeal for funds.