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AMT Model & Methodology

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SPI Weekly

SPI completes my move down in November @ 5559 (for this week only).

My expectation is that the SPI will swing back towards the Weekly 50%
level over the next 3 days:- higher Weekly close.

But only if US markets rise upwards on Tuesday, back towards their own Weekly 50% levels.

Any reversal now is dependant on US markets, which are nowhere near
their November lows.
 

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DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expectation of further weakness on US markets into the Weekly lows, but
on Tuesday I was looking for an UP day, that would benefit the Australian Market over the next 3 days.

There was early support and a rally on Tuesday, but then price drifted
back down into support.

Even though support has held, I would have liked a far more robust UP
day on Tuesday with price closing on it's highs.

I'm still looking for a short-term counter-trend move upwards on the SPI
this week, before it continues down into December's lows, but as pointed
out last week, there are no friends in financials after the 4th Quarter breakout.
 

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DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

That's better, late buying on futures sent US markets higher into the close.

Let's see how the SPI reacts today.
 

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SPI Weekly and %-day pattern

The 3-day UP move was based on 3568...

Whilst above this level the expectation was a move back towards the
5-day 50% level.

Basically a 3-day UP move had to continue upwards from Wednesday
and remain above 3568.

Below 3568 and then view is to move back down into 3520.

3520 is random support, which means that it can support the
market for a period during the day, if the SPI is trading above it @ 3pm, will
often see short-covering into the close.

However below 3520, and it won't surprise me to see the SPI continue
down towards 3471 and even lower.
 

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S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

US markets continue down towards their Monthly lows, with the
expectation of further weakness down into December's lows.

I would have liked a short-term bounce on the Aussie market this
week, back into the Weekly 50% level before it continued down
into December's lows....

But with Resource stocks breaking the 4th Quarter lows yesterday,
and Financials currently in a breakout and heading down into
December's lows....

Hard to see any reversals in the market until the end of this month to get
a gauge on how far the possibility of markets continuing down in
December.

There will always be 3-5 day up moves within each monthy timeframe,
but the next major rotation upwards won't be until late december,
(double Monthly lows) and early January 2009, as markets head back towards
the Yearly breakouts around 4,200, as per last Week's Weekly report.
 

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DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern


Good sign in the short-term for US markets, bounce off November lows and
a daily close above the Weekly 50% level on Monday.

There has been some selling appearing around Monday's highs, but as
the Monday's report suggested, a Daily 'HOOK' above the Weekly 50%
level along with November lows could see higher prices into Friday, as
US markets rotate back towards their December 50% levels starting
next week.

It's imperative that Monday closes above the Weekly 50% level, and
Tuesday moves higher if any 5-day reversal pattern is going to continue this Week:- remain above Tuesday's support.


"November's lows:- current support & at this stage there is no
Monthly low breakout, and with 1 week left on this month, there is
a possibility that US markets could begin to rotate back upwards towards
the December balance point next week.

But first any rotation upwards would need to move back towards the
Weekly 50% level, and then 'HOOK' above, which often leads to a
higher Weekly close by Friday"
 

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DOW Monthly, Weekly, and 5-day pattern


US markets reversing upwards this week with number of probability
patterns playing out using the Dilernia model and Principles.

November lows support, and last week reversal back towards
the December 50% level.

Daily Hook pattern above the Weekly 50% level on
Monday:- probability pattern of a higher close by Friday.

Both those pattern lend each other, as they match the Monthly
timeframe support and rotation.

5-day pattern:- simply trade on the side of support and price
follows the 5-day pattern higher, which began on Monday and has
continued higher on Wednesday.

So far the 4th Quarter has traded under precise patterns of rotation
and extension within multi-timeframes
 

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Financial Index (left) and SPI Weekly (right)

I've been bullish on US markets but I haven't mentioned much about
the Aussie market this week.

Any rises in the Aussie market is mainly due to US markets rising
higher, but there is a lack of follow through here

In fact the SPI has struggled get over the Weekly 50% level for the past
3-days (right chart).


And that's because of the Financial Index (left Chart)

The Financial Index has a November low breakout, which will struggle to
rise higher during this month.

It's the same pattern as October.

Tomorrow is the last day of the month and the resistance will disappear,
so there is a potential of prices to rise slightly higher early next week.

But regardless of any rises, expectation that Financials will follow the
same pattern as this month and continue down into December's lows.
 

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S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Last Week’s view was that there were higher prices into Friday, as
prices bounced off November lows.

As pointed out in the Weekly report, expectation of a 2-day reversal from
a higher Weekly open this week:- random length.

Monday’s sell-off (Support) and continuation down breaking the 5-day
lows, and this pattern is following my view of global markets making
lower lows in December....
 

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DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

I've been bearish on this week on global markets, based on the higher Weekly open and 2-day reversal pattern.

Tuesday 5-day 50% level rejection pattern didn't follow through into the lows.

And now Wednesday's price action in the US has once again resulted in a Daily HOOK bar over the Weekly 50% level.

Price Action bias is to continue higher into Friday.
 

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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI consolidating Weekly 5-day pattern....

Along with the rotation of the SPI's Primary range of 87 points over these past
5-days

Weekly 50% level drops down next week from 3723 to 3506.....
 

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SPI Monthly and Weekly

As per Weekly Report, expectation that global markets will be moving
towards their 3-week highs this week.

These 3-week highs are often major resistance zones in any trend, and
there is a possibility that prices can stall and continue with the trend. (DOWN)

However, as pointed out in the Weekly report and for a number of
weeks....

Expectation that global markets should move upwards in December-January to retest the 2008 yearly breakouts.

Therefore around these highs @ 3770 can resist price for a number of
days, but I'm expecting the SPI to continue to move towards the
December 50% level and then continue higher in early January.
 

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SPI Monthly and Weekly (24 hours)

As we can see, the SPI hit the 3-week highs overnight and the market
was driven down by sellers hitting the Financials today

Sellers also hit the Weekly highs in the US markets late on Monday once they were reached.


These 3-week highs are robust resistance zones and price can
easily continue down towards December's lows, as it follows the
double Monthly low pattern:- SET UP A.

SET UP B:- is what I think will happen

The SPI to consolidate below the 3-week highs until it gets closer to
Friday, and if Price is trading around the Weekly highs (not below the
Weekly 50% ) there is a possibility of a breakout (Friday close) and
then beginning of the move towards December 50% level @ 4051.

Expectation that December 50% level will stall the market, but then
continue higher in January after a 2-3 week consolidation:- rise upwards
from the Janaury 50% level.

This higher move in January will rotate back to the new 1st Quarter
50% level in 2009.

This also matches the breakout of the 2008 lows :- retest the break.

Two important patterns in SET-UP B are :- the retest of the
Primary breakout in 2008 (Yearly), but also the alignment of
the 'Thrust pattern' in the secondary timeframe (Quarterly) , resulting in
a new down trend in 2009.
 

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SPI Weekly and CBA Monthly


SPI has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks, including these past 4 days.

Higher daily opens followed by lower Daily closes, and lower Daily opens followed by higher daily closes.

At this stage the SPI isn’t anywhere near 3770, and the only way the SPI
is going to get that high this week is to see a rally on US markets
on Thursday (not break support)

US markets have hit their 3-week highs and have slowly drifted back
down.

And depending on where the SPI opens it could be a lower Daily open
with the bias to rise upwards into Friday (as long as it's above the Weekly 50%)

Our market has been dragged down by Financials, and the only way the
SPI is going to rotate UP towards 4051 in December is to see Financials
find support around their December lows this week, and begin to
rise upwards from next week.

At this stage on global Markets SET-UP A is still in play
 

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SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern


"Consolidating Weekly pattern, and if we follow the price action over
the past 3 weeks of UP and DOWN days, then the expectation is that
Friday will close higher than the open.

But only if it's trading above 3522.

Lower Daily open can see a push down 22 points before price begins
to rotate upwards once again :- 5-day 50% level @ 3578"


SPI completes the move into the 5-day 50% level, and at this stage 3578 is random resistance and Friday's looks to follow the same pattern of a higher daily close.

Above 3591 after 3pm could see more buying into the close, but at this stage The SPI has played out the price action precisely.
 

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EUR/USD Monthly and Weekly

These are the same patterns that I’m looking for to occur in Index
Markets, but it’s obvious that the ‘fundamentals’ behind these moves
in currencies are driven by the US FED cutting rates.

Once Euro starts cutting rates it will reverse the trend.


Trend support above the Weekly 50% level and breakout of the Weekly
highs (3-week)

In this instance resulting in a Friday close above the December 50% level
and continuation of the move up towards the December highs.

The important part is the rotation back towards the next Quarterly 50%
level in the first Quarter.

Maybe with today's rate cut, the same patterns begin to unfold in
global Index markets, even though the Fundamentals of those markets
aren’t the same as currencies.

This is a pure technical move that I think needs to happen before the
down trend continues lower in 2009.
 

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