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AJL - AJ Lucas Group

Gas content 12 to 20m3/t and flows proving very promising from initial wells within large tenement. Augurs well for 70% AJL & 30% MPO.

 
Currently AJL-watchers are fixated on the soon to be released independent reserves report for AJL's Gloucester Coal-seam project. Confirmation of success at Gloucester could open the way for some major expansion energy/electricity projects to flow.
Note Babcock & Brown's involvement in recent AJL discussions with Sydney Gas where they are said to be advocating that AJL take management control of SGL.
Definitely a vote of confidence in AJL. With plenty of stategic possibilities attached....... particularly given the imminent privatisation of NSW electricity assets....and the likely move to the more greenhouse friendly gas-fired generation to meet e.coast demand (in a carbon-credit environment).
Initial indications are that Gloucester gas resource is significant...talk is of local power-generation; and also pipelining gas to the nearby high-margin Newcastle market. These could expand if reserves exceed expectations &/or other parties become involved.
AJL's diverse engineering & construct capabilities must be considered a big positive should Gloucester be fully developed. all AJL divisions will be available to be utilised ....water; oil/gas; csg; electricity infras; drilling; pipelines; engineering &construct....with benefits to both project costs, & AJL's revenues.
 

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Yes Col Lector, I think it is a potentially very good news story in the making in the Gloucester Basin. I hold some AJL and some MPO. I posted in the ASX chat forum on Saturday regarding an article in the Newcastle Herald about CBM projects in the Hunter Valley and Gloucester particularly. I also noted a few weeks ago a NSW Gov't Dept advertising for a geologist to work in the assessment of CBM projects in the area. I think these things indicate that "real" things are happening in this area, not just exploration hype! I also have a few SGL shares, it would be nice to get back into the black with them. pointr
 

Hm interesting company

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 11.8 21.0 32.5 28.1
DPS 2.5 175.1 0.1 0.1


 
Gidday guys...AJL holding up well in the face of a volatile market. Small volume....as generally the case, but up another 1 % or so today. Functioning well as a "defensive" holding while this continues. There remains a constant demand but limited selling......shares are being held tightly in anticipation of events to come.....
Hard to place a target price on these guys given good revenue growth expected with all divisions firing, in addition to the difficult to quantify upside of Gloucester (& associated projects)
 
Micheal, FY2007 results (below) are a big improvement on the FY2006 figs the extract quoted. This despite events such as the Goro site riots impacting results.
FY2008 results should give a clearer indication of AJL revenue potential ongoing from non-Gloucester operations. Gloucester income potential remains to be quantified...with the pending indep.reservres certification being the next key step to calculating this.... I'm sure more than a few trembling hands will be running over the figures..
as compared to the quoted FY2006....
 

Do you know whtis companyonly started to run since Aug06?

Before thenit was heading downwards unlike WOR fore example

thx

MS
 
Another piece of the jigsaw in place with yesterday's ann. of AJL taking management control of Sydney Gas.
SGL's tenements (prospective but mismanaged) stretch from SW Sydney to Newcastle ("The Hunter Project") & nicely complement AJL's Gloucester tenements where reserves are pending.
With methane reserves undercontrol/left in safe hands, the bigger plans can now be rolled out.
This AJL/SGL arrangment has been done with the backing by BNB - a key SGL stakeholder with 2 board members. It has also been forced upon SGL by the fact that under the terms of the previous facesaving 50% asset sale/supply agreement to AGL (ie,AGK) subsequent payments were dependent on confirmation of reserves size before a defined date and specified supply volumes.
AJL is the white knight here for all parties....SGL particularly, but also BNB, AGK. I was surprised that AJL didnt head north on the news. The terms appear to offer considerable upside for AJL...IMO it is a reflection that without AJL's expertise maybe no-one would win, and expansion plans would have to be delayed. AJL holds the cards ...they are the ones with the highly sought expertise, contacts & equipment.

Interestingly, on the back of this news FN ARENA today released an article "Strong Earnings Growth Suggests More Upside in AJ Lucas" that notes Intersuisse has called AJL a Buy on the basis of anticipated strong revenue/profit growth from all existing divisions, and for the blue-sky potential the SGL deal, & Gloucester tenements, bring
Intersuisse expect 08 rev of $350 mill, up from 216 in 07; Profit tipped to rise from 6.4 to14.6 mill....with further growth expected in 09 .

Read the non-price sensitive ann from Jan14 carefully...once again there are hints that big things are afoot...offshore ventures....maybe a spinoff...or...
 
Do you know whtis companyonly started to run since Aug06?

Before thenit was heading downwards unlike WOR fore example

thx

MS

Hi Michael...Combination of factors...including relative obscurity to the market. AJL geared up for some major pipeline projects 05/06 that were pulled and left them in the lurch time/costwise. Took a while to work its way through. Growth in CBM industry generally, but expectations for Gloucester, in particular have spurred the SP since then.
 
Superb half-yearly results from AJL reflecting the strength of the diversified business model. Coal seam projects where AJL operates as an equity-partner offer considerable upside. AJL are positioning for this...as is evident when reading between the lines of the actual half-yearly (21/2)& Analysis Presentation(22/2).
The media release below summarises...

 
AJL is up 45c or 11%+ right now on the 1/2 year results news. Thin trading so far though (likewise most stocks today). Should be good for the SP looking forward....


AJ
 
Aussiejeff. Sp response (up 9.5% to $4.16) was mainly due to today's ann....ie, excellent initial reserves for Gloucester with considerable upside.
Also very bullish report from Baillieu out too on the back of these reserves...tho yet to see it myself. Comments particularly on the high strategic value of AJL's (&SGL's) NSW reserves.
 

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Baillieu's recent report on Molopo website highlights how potentially lucrative AJL's 70% holding of the Gloucester Basin project could be....noting the 100% project "will likely have a terminal valuation (upon development) in excess of $1 billion..."
Noting that the market cap of (diversified/profitable/dividend-paying) AJL is currently less than 200million.....

 
AJL's prospects are only getting rosier as the coal-seam gas sector booms and the coal industry continues to expand. The pending NSW power-privatisation and the flagged spin-off of Lucas Energy make thing even more interesting.
AJL continuing to attract strong buyer support on low volume... recovered ~25% over last few weeks to push back through the $4 barrier. A testament to the solid earnings profile & big upside potential of this company
IMO the move into Sydney Gas was v.strategic and really spices up AJL's growth potential. The fit with the Gloucester project has huge upside and it cements AJL's position as a critical player, (as both resource-holder & as a key drilling/pipeline etc service provider)in the anticipated boom in NSW CSG sector.
Initially AJL was happy to pay 38c for their large SGL stake, later reduced to 34c as the sub-prime hit the markets.
Interestingly SGL shares have (unexpectedly)been under pressure since then, hitting 23.5c last week.It appears certain that the broker debacles are to blame, in particular Chimaera. The publicised "rescue" by ANZ has had a significant effect on SGL's market depth over the last few days. The dumping of shares appears to have ceased and confidence is returning to the buy-side, as evidenced by SGL's ~40% appreciation this week to return to around the levels that AJL initially purchased...ie, 34c.
I hold both. IMO SGL's potential has been overlooked by investors due to the broker-related underperformance noted above; also debacles & bad management of prior years. AJL's expertise, management nous and good relationship with key stakeholders (eg, Babacock & AGL)will be on display as it seeks to unearth SGL's recognised potential.

And then of course there's also AJL's Gloucester Project nicely cooking away to keep investors interested....looking v.tasty IMO
 

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I agree with your sentiment Col Lector. As a holder of AJL & MPO & SGL and a resident in a nearby area I would not be surprised to see further minor delays with the Gloucestor project as there has certainly been some rain up here and it has caused delays in the past. That said, such issues are minor as we see the NSW CSG industry head onward and hopefully upward.
 
Giday Pointr, Not a bad week....! All time high for AJL and appears no barrier to further appreciation given outlook for sector activity, and the flagged spinoff of Lucas Energy....
The price paid for Origin (North of $1.50/GJ) gives an indication of what Lucas Energy may be worth.
 

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Surprised AJ Lucas hasnt run as far as the others in the CSG sector. They have a lot going for them and should be a major winner of the new QGC pipeline build which will add to their CSG interests.

AJL are the largest Australian coal and CSG driller. They have,

■ cash flow from operating businesses
■ 70% interest in Gloucester Basin, NSW _ Important with the new QGHL pipeline
■ attributable 2P reserves 119 PJ
■ drilling to increase reserves
■ 100km pipeline required to market
■ 15% interest & management of SGL

AJL’s objective is to prove up additional 2P reserves in Gloucester Basin and SGL assets and spin off Lucas Energy (CSG Assets) as a separate vehicle by calendar year end and commercialise the assets. Its operating businesses have the usual broad range of operating risks.
 

A more realistic wholesale gas price might help. The current scenario where the rest of the world appears to be paying around $12MMBTU while Oz producers get around $3 is crazy. It's no wonder QGC would prefer to bottle up and sell most of theirs overseas!! I bet most Oz producers are "fuming" at the price differential ATM.....

AJ
 
AJ, pointr, The A...
thought AJL was surprisingly subdued following the Petronas/Santos deal ann. given reaction elsewhere.
IMO take some comfort from the fact that the deal values Santo's 2P reserves at $4.91/GJ of2P (widely quoted)
AJL's share of INITIAL Gloucester cert reserves of ~119PJ has a parallel value of ~$585 million.
Importantly this without considering AJL reserves Qld & via SGL holding & the fact have been drilling furiously several months at Gloucester since this reserve figure released.
AJL total mkt cap currently ~300mill at $5.60....can be largely justified on basis of current non-production earnings (pipelines, drilling etc).
IMO, eitherway the CSG projects &/or AJL earning businesses are not fully reflected by current AJL mkt cap. eg, Gloucester assigned 30%of 300mill mkt cap =$90mill vs inferred 585.
The Santos deal infers an enterprise value for 2P Gloucester on the basis of initial reserves only that dwarfs that of the full profitable entity.
Some would argue that AJL CSG assets deserve a further premium given stand-alone potential/proximity to key Newcastle/Sydney market.
Thoughts to comfort.
 
Hi Col Lector,
my only concerns with AJL is why I have so few of them. But then your share dollars can only go to so many places. Both of the Gloucester players have been quiet for a while as far as announcements go. they are probably busy developing energy busnisses as compared to running PR / Spin enterprises
 
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