AGY - Argosy Minerals
- Thread starter sydneysider
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Chart update.
Sdajii
Sdaji
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The chart is looking great, lithium is up, we could get the permit any day and rerate, I chose AGY again for June.
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Not looking great from my weekly view.
It's been one of my favourites for a while now but for some reason is not keeping pace with the sector and others in that area.There's been numerous rumours of news coming but for the last ten weeks only slightly better than sideways.
Hoping it does turn in June @Sdajii.
(click to expand)
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I agree that the last swing down was impulsive and put the up trend in doubt as it made a lower high on both the daily and weekly charts (not monthly). Price was becoming more volatile the higher it got. I'm thinking that the selloff was a bit overdone. Price found support and has now started to rally again. I've bought it at the low as a spec position and traded it short term.
I'm waiting to see if price can get above the mid point of the swing down. This is shown in my chart as the red zone. If price gets through this zone I'll consider it bullish again. Currently in a corrective rally to that prior down swing.
AGY is performing better than ACDC (top pane) but not as well as PLS and AKE the two big producers.
I'm waiting to see if price can get above the mid point of the swing down. This is shown in my chart as the red zone. If price gets through this zone I'll consider it bullish again. Currently in a corrective rally to that prior down swing.
AGY is performing better than ACDC (top pane) but not as well as PLS and AKE the two big producers.
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What about my Lithium Trousseau of Sails?
DLI, PMT, LKE, LRS, GL1 and INR
Salute and Gods' Speed
PS and LTR which I have recently sold and Got a lot of WC8 in its recent placement @ 0.03 cents
Sometimes you can get LUCKY!
DLI, PMT, LKE, LRS, GL1 and INR
Salute and Gods' Speed
PS and LTR which I have recently sold and Got a lot of WC8 in its recent placement @ 0.03 cents
Sometimes you can get LUCKY!
Last edited:
Sdajii
Sdaji
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I'm reading things slightly differently. The weekly finished up looking a bit better than you've shown here. You have it as a red candle but by close this week's candle had turned green. The daily is looking better than the weekly which should help establish another green weekly candle next week. China's reported lithium spot price isn't as relevant to AGY as the market seems to think, but the market does see it that way and this evening we've seen a massive jump which should be reflected in Monday's AGY price.
Other holders I talk with say they're excited about partnership deals, offtake agreements, and funding arrangements, even potential takeover bids, but I don't these as important or in some cases likely (though any of these would push the price up). I have no doubt we will sell our product and we'll get a nice price.
We'll soon hit nameplate production (not this month and probably not next) and while I don't doubt it will happen, it will be nice to see it and the share price will move.
The big one is the expansion permit. It could happen any time, but I expect it in about two or three months. I could get into detail there about my reasons for expecting it then, but it's probably easier to just leave it. I wasn't seeing it as a guarantee that we'd get it, and I still don't think it's 100%, but when the local government came out to our facility for a publicity stunt and promoted us to the local communities as being fantastic for the local economy and good for the world etc etc, almost all doubt was removed. Why would the government pull that sort of thing if they weren't going to approve the permit? That permit will be the catalyst for a big rerate. I was pleased to see the local government reelected just recently, meaning we avoid any potential issues with a new government less favourable to our venture.
With all the above in mind, I topped up today. I think the thing I liked most about the top up was that the 10,000 shares I bought wasn't even adding 5% to my AGY holding, but it was so much more than the zero I owned (zero shares, cash, books... I didn't even own coat hangers... or warm clothes and couldn't afford toothpaste or proper food etc) three years ago, so it's nice to be making top ups of that much.
Sdajii
Sdaji
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Still plodding along, hopefully we'll get some development in next month's progress report which we'll see in less than two weeks not that I'm counting, and hopefully we'll get to steady state production and have the permit next quarter. Just a waiting game before the rerate.
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Since Feb, AGY lost 50% of its value and -17% in few weeks after a moderate rebound. What will it take to recover?
Even today, a good day (all things considering) - dropped another 1.3% further. Surely it's not stock offloaded prior to the EOFY?
Even today, a good day (all things considering) - dropped another 1.3% further. Surely it's not stock offloaded prior to the EOFY?
Sdajii
Sdaji
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Obviously tax loss selling has been part of the issue lately. Any stock which is down towards the end of the financial year gets pushed down lower until the end.
What will it take to recover? Good results from the 2,000TPA plant and approval of the expansion permit. We should have both of them before the end of the year and that should give us a new all time high.
Management hasn't done us any favours by giving overly optimistic expectations of timeframes, but the actual developments have been excellent, all we need is patience.
Sdajii
Sdaji
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The market really is punishing AGY for management's overly optimistic time frame guidance being missed. The plant seems to be progressing well, just behind schedule. It's funny that when you're going to be worth $1 in January rather than in August, in August you can temporarily be worth 32.5c
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Wow now that's a management mob to take notice of !!!!
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AGY 's price selloff has been disappointing if we believe the corporate narrative. AGY hasn't been the only lithium wannabe producer to have hit the skids (eg. CXO, LKE, AGY). Huge delays and rising costs are causing problems for many of these companies.
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I admire your optimism for Jan, AGY is temporary 27c now.
Sdajii
Sdaji
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Assuming we do get to steady state production by January, which we should, and we get the permit to expand, which may happen much sooner or may not quite come by January, we should be closer to $1 than 27c.
The progress of operations has been great but management has done an appalling job of PR, hence the terrible share price.
If $1 seems optimistic, consider that on hopes of achieving what we are still on track to acheive, we went above 80c. Once we actually achieve it, which again, we're on track to do, we should exceed that. The only significant difference between a few months ago when we were at 80c and now is the spot price of lithium. Unfortunately it has dropped significantly and for that reason I think we may not hit $1 by January, but I still wouldn't rule it out and if lithium prices recover (a big if in that time frame) $1 should be comfortable once we have the permit and completed commissioning.
Sure, there are risks, but the market is currently pricing in an assumption that lithium prices stay low and we never get beyond our initial stage of development, which is a more extreme level of pessimism than you're accusing me of having optimism.
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One of my first stocks, got the first batch in December and kept topping up.
Fortunately, "just" ~$1k lost. A lesson to sell once all is looking rosy-green.
Fortunately, "just" ~$1k lost. A lesson to sell once all is looking rosy-green.
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I'm sick of reading the positive spin around AGY spewed by the CEO. AGY have been close to finishing their 2000tpa processing plant for ages. The CEO keeps including that they've produced 10t of LiCO3 as if it's a big accomplishment. Come on, 10t is not significant progress towards 2000t. Now they're considering upscaling to 10000tpa! They haven't even produced 100t yet!
All talk and no progress. No wonder AGY is being sold off.
All talk and no progress. No wonder AGY is being sold off.
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Silver-tongued spin doctor it would appear
Sdajii
Sdaji
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Producing 10T in a month isn't that bad. The target for the current plant is about 165T per month, not 2,000. Sure, they have totally missed the time line guidance, but the amount produced per month continues to increase, they're still in commissioning so tonnage per month isn't that relevant, and unless they're blatantly lying, resolving bottleneck issues should significantly increase the production rate. With any luck we'll see significantly more than 10T produced this month.
Once they complete commissioning and have the production rate up to where they want it, building the next plants should be easy as they've already sorted out the issues.
The permit to expand and also the resource upgrade are taking longer than expected to come through. The market has punished the share price for these delays, but there's nothing suggesting we won't actually get there, so the low price seems like a bargain. Even the low spot price should resolve within 6-12 months, but that's a story external to the company.
Sdajii
Sdaji
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AGY continues to flounder around. The permit taking so long is more due to the Argentinian government faffing about, I'm not sure what takes so long with the resource upgrade; they've already done the drilling and all physical work, they just need to do the computer modelling and write up a report, so hopefully that won't take too long, and the big issue is getting the filtration system operating as desired. I'm not sure whether that will take another week or several months (several months is my guess) but it's the big thing we really need.
