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AGY - Argosy Minerals

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IMHO the price action from the recent low looks corrective to me. I did buy the recent BO >0.36 but have since sold as price drifted down. Todays up bar looks promising and I'd like to see a HVBB closing >0.41 to rebuy.

Current lithium producers (AKE, PLS) are going gangbusters so there's solid demand for lithium companies that are close to production. Price of LiCo3 and spodumene have remained high. Battery manufacturers are desperate for more.
 
I'm not trading as tightly as I once was, so haven't sold.
Owing to its sector, it gets more leeway and time to "mature".
I might be mellowing as well?
Was in on 25th July on 0.365 FWIW.
 
peter2 said:
IMHO the price action from the recent low looks corrective to me. I did buy the recent BO >0.36 but have since sold as price drifted down. Todays up bar looks promising and I'd like to see a HVBB closing >0.41 to rebuy.

Current lithium producers (AKE, PLS) are going gangbusters so there's solid demand for lithium companies that are close to production. Price of LiCo3 and spodumene have remained high. Battery manufacturers are desperate for more.
Click to expand...

Agree @peter2. I have been focusing on this sector for a while now.

A few of the stocks that have my attention somewhat more than others in the sector are AGY, CXO, LKE, LTR, PAN, PDN and PLS.
There's a secondary list that contains quite a few more that are probably a bit more hit and run.
 
S&P/ASX 300 Index – Effective Prior to the Open on September 19, 2022

Addition, AGY, Argosy Minerals Limited

Quite a few additions of "stocks of interest".
 
I chose this one for the September competition. This should be a great month, we've just been added to the ASX300, which came as a complete surprise to me, we probably won't quite complete commissioning of the new plant but we'll get close (completion probably coming next month), and with a bit of luck we might get the resource upgrade and/or 10,000TPA expansion permit.

Exciting times for AGY over the next few months.
 
A near Lithium producer. Beneficiary of S&P/ASX 300 Index quarterly re balance? or something else..
Entered at the blue line.
 

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bk1 said:
A near Lithium producer. Beneficiary of S&P/ASX 300 Index quarterly re balance? or something else..
Entered at the blue line.
Click to expand...

Nice buy!

I've been in since 13c on the day the capital raising (at 13c) was announced early last year. Kept on buying around 10c and did a lot of trading along the way as it bounced around, often fairly predictably. I was watching before they raised the funds, but knew that was going to crash the price. I'm guessing you'll make more than 50% on your money before the end of the year, and if you hang on for 2+ years I'm confident you'll have a handsome multibagger.

This was absurd value below 10c not much more than a year ago, and it's just taking time to catch up. Stocks struggle to increase too quickly due to profit takers, and plenty of people trade it (I was very guilty of this for around 18 months) which keeps the hand break on the gains.

Just crunching some back of the envelope numbers, AGY plans to expand to 12,000TPA over the next 2-3 years (with 90% ownership of the project). You can plug in whatever number you like for lithium prices, but at current spot prices, net revenue would be above the current market cap! Even if you want to say they'll be selling for half that (I personally expect they'll be higher, but let's go with conservative forecasts), net revenue is almost as high as the current market cap, so using whatever value of P/E you choose, this will be a multibagger.

But, it gets better. The plan is to expand to 25,000TPA over the following 2-3 years, so you can take your multibagger and double it in around 4-6 years.

There's also the chance that their Tonopah tenement will have a commercially viable resource, in which case you have an entire extra project for the company which could potentially be comparable or even larger to the Rincon project (completely unproven at this stage and is appropriately being priced in as about zero, but we have that wildcard).

If lithium prices do what I expect, in about 5-6 years they should be paying dividends of around my average buy price (about a third of yours). If not, hey, at least a smaller multibagger is still a multibagger.

With all this in mind, it's no wonder we're seeing a rally (which is really just a continuation of the long term up trend which has been going on for more than a year), but current reasons are that we're just about to start our first commercial scale production (though due to increased lithium prices our pilot plant has more or less been commercial production for a while now), we should get out 10,000TPA expansion permit any time, our drill results hopefully including a resource expansion are due any time and won't be far off, yes, the ASX300 inclusion this week no doubt helped, and lithium prices have just blown the 500,000CNY cap, so the whole sector is rallying.
 
I chose AGY again for December. The TA knocked it down a bit late this month, and should bounce, hopefully. As far as the competition goes, hopefully it'll crash tomorrow and close around the bottom of the fair value gap at 52c then rally through December. Looks like it might have already bounced off 56c today. We'll see. As long as the global economy doesn't crash severely, I'm confident it'll be higher at the end of December than it is now.
 
Choosing it again for January. We were looking very promising then had some bad action on the foreign markets and lithium prices as we were bouncing off the bottom of the pennant, causing us to break down instead of up. Hopefully January is a better month.
 
Tipping AGY in the 2023 competition.

I think this will be a great year for AGY and I'm hoping for better than 100% return over the year, with a lot of that to come in the first quarter or two. I might have already posted most of this in the thread before, but to reiterate the salient points:

We've already begun commissioning the company's first commercial-scale production plant. While relatively modest in size (2,000TPA, most of which is AGY's), at current spot prices that alone almost justifies the current market cap.

Unless anything goes wrong, we'll have our permit granted allowing us to expand to 10,000TPA. AGY's share of the venture will increase by more than 5x, justifying a market cap of multiples of the current value (by the metric of the current spot price, and keeping in mind that it will take approximately two years to build).

We're currently doing exploration drilling and should have a resource upgrade this quarter or maybe early next quarter. Resource size isn't quite as relevant to lithium briners than most other mining ventures, but in the eyes of the market resource size is king so it should impact the share price.

AGY has a tenement in Tonopah in the USA. Currently we have no direct data on how much lithium brine is there or whether or not it's a commercially viable resource at all, but the results of exploration drilling on that tenement will be revealed in the next few months. Currently the market isn't seemingly pricing anything in for Tonopah, but if it is a viable resource it will rerate the company.

Long term TA on AGY looks fantastic, with a long term C&H with a target price of $1.105 which we should hit by mid year.

If it's not obvious, I'm very bullish on AGY and have parked most of my money in it along with tipping it in the contest.
 
...and choosing it again for March.

Since I tipped AGY not so long ago it has doubled in price (since I started buying in 2021 it has become a six bagger). I think it'll still be a multibagger between now and a year from now and probably another multibagger between a year from now and another year or two from then, but we'll see what happens within March. Management has given some indication that we'll be getting the 10,000TPA expansion permit this quarter, so before the end of March. This should give us a decent rerate.
 
Held since 2016 @ 2.4 c
Been a stressful ride at times, but this junior is finally coming of age.
JZ is a great CEO, who is very accessible to shareholders.
Pablo is the brains with the technical know how to produce battery grade product from a so called inferior resource.
Look at the recent Ann’s, tangible progress, an actual functioning facility, not a pump stock like LKE and others.
Only the 2nd ASX brine co to be able to produce BG product behind AKE.
Years ahead of all the other juniors…..
 
Nasty month for AGY so far, but today we saw the first green candle in over two weeks, so hopefully the bottom is in and 40c will be the low.
 
It's a roller coaster it seems for the lithium miners / producers - AGY was going so well just a few weeks ago. Sure, if raw Li prices are down in Chinese markets, but for example PMT is meant to produce for the US - and it's also all over the place.

Holding both (fortunately not much) but it's intriguing how Feb's darlings are now being dumped.
 
I noticed that @peter2 had added this to his spec? portfolio last week.
Looking like the bottom may be in based off a shorter term chart of 5 days/15 minutes bars.
A six month daily shows consolidation, but no real clear exit out of that yet, so not for the cautious yet.
Held.

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