The "25% free carried stake" makes this one expensive. Whilst others that fully own/operate operations (MTN,BMN 80%, ERN 90%) will reap the rewards long term....I mean the more you own of the deposits the more you will go up...why bother with AGS and rann...not one piece of quality news this entire year proves my point...and its been 5 months into this year....this is because it doesn't fully own its operations...so will give no new meaningful news...what do AGS mngmt do with their time?
Uraniumlover is right...full ownership is important...every pound of uranium explored or dug out I get 100% benefit in the other stocks...whereas every pound or uranium found in AGS only a paltry 25%....and no guarantees of finding new deposits...arguably exploration value of AGS is same as MTN,BMN,ERN..theres nothing to suggest it is better exploration and deserves a premium...AGS high grade in Western zone ONLY(East zone is not HIGH grade but 0.03 average low grade)...the tonnage won't compare to BMN,ERN...and large tonnage counts!
The whole overall discovery is stated in latest presentation by Johnston at about 45,000 to 52,000t....take the median, and thats 100mil lbs...even that won't be fully JORC....so overall AGS share only 25mil lbs...arguably I wouldn't include other exploration as other companies have exploration too....so on a dollar per lb it is 650/25 = $26/lb. If it doubles from here without proving anything above 100mil lbs(i.e. not discovering any new deposits - Beverley 4 mile East drill holes don't count as they are part of the 100mil lbs)....it will be worth $52 a lb...:bad: As far as I know they won't be drilling elsewhere = only on East this year...so they really can't double from here can they? Even 25% more increase in SP, thats 26*1.25 = $32/lb...:22_yikes:...Even PDN is cheaper than AGS atm...the dollar per pound of PDN was quoted at 25-30dollar per pound...but ags is 3 years behind PDN right now..
AGS high grade in Western zone ONLY(East zone is not HIGH grade but 0.03 average low grade)...the tonnage won't compare to BMN,ERN...and large tonnage counts!
There's more to it than that, surely. Wouldn't 'free carried' with an experienced uranium miner make it more valuable. Or, do you mean that it only has 25% free carried to mine and then they have to help fund the mining?The "25% free carried stake" makes this one expensive.
You say fully own and then proceed to put in the % ownership.Whilst others that fully own/operate operations (MTN,BMN 80%, ERN 90%)
Just because they own upward of 80% does not logically mean they will 'reap rewards' at all. Are they ever going to need a JV partner to get to production?will reap the rewards long term....
It's that simple? What about size, grade, location, management, hedging, infrastructure...I mean the more you own of the deposits the more you will go up
AGS has an advanced project in SA, and Rann is the only Labor State Premier who is actively lobbying for uranium mining in his State. AGS will seek a mining lisence by the end of the year and Rann has already said he will give it to them. I think that's why this project is interesting.why bother with AGS and rann.
What point? You didn't make a point in relation to this and it proves nothing in itself. While I'm unsure as to what your definition of 'quality' news is, they have released several anns updating the market about their operations. They have released two anns updating the B4M project and advised that they were moving to a scoping study as soon as Quasar get the JORC to them.not one piece of quality news this entire year proves my point.
I disagree. No junior explorer, or even developer without uranium mining experience is likely to get their project to production without significant cash inflows, or a JV/Farm In partner. I think it's very important that the juniors get a partner with significant uranium mining experience on board to take their mines to development.Uraniumlover is right...full ownership is important..
Is this the sole reason why it is at a 'premium'? It might be a factor, but just one. There is no guarantee of finding anything 'new' in the region, but we have already compared the Arkaroola tenement to MTNs, and it is considerably larger. That's not to say it's got anything else on it, but it must be a consideration.and no guarantees of finding new deposits...arguably exploration value of AGS is same as MTN,BMN,ERN..theres nothing to suggest it is better exploration and deserves a premium.
How do you know this? ERN have some historical drill holes and BMN have only completed drilling on 25% of their deposit haven't they? Also, large tonnage is not all that counts. Higher grade is much better, which B4M western zone is compared to your BMN and ERN. You should note that the higher the grade, the less tonnage is required to be mined for the same result.the tonnage won't compare to BMN,ERN...and large tonnage counts!
So, you value a company entirely on just one of its projects? A company's market cap is made up of more than just one of it's projects. You continue to do this and you will continue to get a flawed valuation of a company and use this to compare it against another flawed valuation. I'm surprised you did not dig up your SMM valuation based soley on Valhalla and use that compare it to MTN or BMN.arguably I wouldn't include other exploration as other companies have exploration too.
Overall Halba, I agree,
The "25% free carried stake" makes this one expensive. Whilst others that fully own/operate operations (MTN,BMN 80%, ERN 90%) will reap the rewards long term.....
zed327 said:MTN is in a protected reserve and have got one hell of a job to get past all the relevent do gooders to be able to mine. All the uranium that MTN have ain't worth a cracker if they are not allowed to get it out of the ground where as AGS are already half way there with all this political backing. AGS will be the first new u mine to start up,no buts about it.
Pommi, see the South Australian Uranium Explorers thread. There is a doc attached that has all the SA explorers and their current market cap.For the fundametalists out there...
AGS has a 246,049,285 shares in circulation X $2.55 SP.
A rough calc shows that AGS has a market cap of $600,000,000, which seems pretty high for a company which hasn't started mining Uranium yet.
Would anyone agree with me that a lot is priced in.
Does anyone have a list of market caps of U explorers/miners in comparison?
How much more upside do you all think is there and where will this come from?
Thanks
PG
For the fundametalists out there...
AGS has a 246,049,285 shares in circulation X $2.55 SP.
A rough calc shows that AGS has a market cap of $600,000,000, which seems pretty high for a company which hasn't started mining Uranium yet.
Would anyone agree with me that a lot is priced in.
Does anyone have a list of market caps of U explorers/miners in comparison?
How much more upside do you all think is there and where will this come from?
Thanks
PG
So what do you think it should be worthdoes it really matter at the end of the day its the market that determines what a company is worth
cheers laurie
So what do you think it should be worthdoes it really matter at the end of the day its the market that determines what a company is worth
cheers laurie
AGS reeks of a bubble brewing...a definite risky play in the long term...
Having said that...I hold....and will continue to do so...but will be watching this stock like an eagle....and intend on selling some at various points over the next 6 months to recoup my outlay.
ps..well done on buying in at 14c...................................................
When are you bailing? Surely you're not gonna hold for 20 years?
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