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AGM - Allegiance Mining

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Why would you think that. AGM has just proved more nickel. They are getting closer to production every day. I would expect the ZFX bid would have made the company hurry it's move to commence production, which could be announced any day now. The real answer is the chinese interests. I doubt they want cash, they want nickel. With AGM they have nickel. I suggest the directors of AGM want to develop AGM to it's full potential before selling too. I can't see ZFX getting AGM. I hope they don't I think AGM has great gains possible in the VERY NEAR future.
 
prices to decline in 2008 but to remain highABARE dec 07 report
World nickel prices in 2007 are estimated to average around US$37 400 a tonne, 54
per cent higher than in 2006. The increase in the average price refl ects high prices in
the fi rst half of the year (above US$40 000 a tonne)
when world stocks were low and consumption was
increasing rapidly. Consumption has since declined,
while production has remained steady, resulting in
rising stocks and declining prices.
Prices are forecast to average around US$27 500
a tonne in 2008. The world supply–demand balance
is expected to remain tight early in the year, providing
support for prices above US$30 000 a tonne.
However, from the June quarter, nickel production is
forecast to increase and to exceed consumption as a
number of new mines are commissioned. As a result,
nickel prices are forecast to fall to around US$25 000
a tonne in the September quarter.
 
AGM have received a letter of support from Jinchuan who state that the offer from ZFX will not be accepted.
 
As far as I am concerned there is nothing in the ZFX offer that is attractive to long term holders. ZFX obviously see excellent long term potential for AGM and the area that it holds but are only prepared to pay a SP that I believe AGM will achieve when it starts production shortly. ZFX are thumbing their nose at long term holders and using scare tactics about AGM's ability to fund future developement and the liquidity of AGM shares if it is only partially successful in its bit. (My understanding of lack of liquidity is that you can have extreme swings in either direction). And what if they walk away, yes with the current market and N price volality there probably will be a fall back in the SP but long term I believe there are good prospects for the SP.

With the amount of shares Jinchuan and directors hold ZFX will not achieve its 90% for a compulsory acquisition, which could leave us with either a 6.5 or 6.6 (Bidder Statement) situation. Perhaps partial involvement by ZFX would be more beneficial to long term holders?

I will not be selling.
 
assuming AGM is as good long term as posters here say, I cannot understand why there is not a much deeper queue of suitors
 
well i think someone knows something or people / instos are having a punt coz the vol on friday was double the daily average.interesting to see wot happens monday
 
Ted said:
I will not be selling.
Click to expand...


Unfortunately you will have no choice. The bid will probably get upped to $1.15/$1.20, Jinchuan will accept and so will the instos. ZFX will get 90% quicker than flash gordon in this market. It will be a compulsory acquisition situation once ZFX get 90%.
The market is efficient and the market is prepared to pay only a small 5% premium to the $1.00. That tells you what the big instos think.
 
treefrog said:
assuming AGM is as good long term as posters here say, I cannot understand why there is not a much deeper queue of suitors
Click to expand...
What do you want? My detailed quote shows less than 1 mill sellers under $1.10 but 8 mill buys from $1.05. Turn over Friday could be traders getting out or realising the deal will not go ahead. The SP was up 1c on the day when the market was down quite a bit. What it shows to me is that buyers aren't appreciating the true value but the current holders are, in the main, true believers.
 

the only company pursuing AGM is ZFX - ie they are the only one that wants to take it over

suppose a second co tosses in a bid for $3 - trust you will be sticking to your principles and not selling
 
treefrog said:
suppose a second co tosses in a bid for $3 - trust you will be sticking to your principles and not selling
Click to expand...

Now you are talking a price that is acceptable. When it gets to that it will be a fair price and I will stick to my principles and take the offer. If you compare AGM to SMY, as I have done for some time now, with all the fundamentals taken into account, $3 is a fair price. That is why I am definite in saying the ZFX offer is opportunistic ( I posted that definition before AGM used it, in fact I used it in a fax to them and I was pleased to see them repeat what I had said.)
 
banksa - do you post on HC???
Your analysis and thoughts seem similar to another person -
I don't disagree with your thoughts nor dispute u posting on both forums ..
Just wondering.
 
whitta27 said:
banksa - do you post on HC???
Your analysis and thoughts seem similar to another person -
I don't disagree with your thoughts nor dispute u posting on both forums ..
Just wondering.
Click to expand...

No. Only this forum. I am sure there are plenty of AGM shareholders who have similar views on the takeover to me. I have spoken to six people I know who have shares in AGM and five said they would accept a bit more than $1. The other person has already sold at $1.04 on market.
 
banska bystrica said:
I have spoken to six people I know who have shares in AGM and five said they would accept a bit more than $1. The other person has already sold at $1.04 on market.
Click to expand...
I have not spoken to ANYONE who is taking less than $1.20. and most of the ones I know DON"T want to sell at all before production starts.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Hello all,

I know AGM had engaged an external firm to asses what their larger shareholders thoughts were on the takeover bid and what the shareholders were considering doing, if anything at all.

It would leave me to believe, that the 'DO NOTHING' is honestly a belief by management that their bigger shareholders are not currently thinking about selling to ZFX at these current levels, a new bid would ofcourse, need to be re-assesed.
 
The last time I traded AGM I sold in late September for .79c. I have traded them many times before. If I were holding when the ZFX offer came in I would have sold then. AGM is high risk, the mine is not yet proven, there's to many shares on issue and I think there's better oppotunities with other nickel miners with proven assets, no dept and not to many shares on issue around. If it was'nt for the ZFX offer AGM would be trading around 50c.porkpie
 
If that is what you think of AGM could you tell me why the SP of SMY is where it is. I suggest you have not examined the fundamentals of both to any great extent. Or are you just downramping AGM.
 
First, I do not downramp companies shares.
Second, have a look at the charts of SMY, IGO WSA &MCR, they have fallen nowhere near as far as ZFX and as I said if it was'nt for the offer AGM would be trading around 50c, I also think AGM does have potential but not at the present SP .
Third, I give what my opinion of a company is I see them,I don't think the market genarally will be influenced by what I say. I have been trading for many years and quite succesfully too.
If you want to hold AGM at these prices then good luck, but if the ZFX offer is withdrawn then you watch them go down.porkpie
 
Still a lot of turnover for AGM with little change. It would be interesting to know how much is due to traders giving up on a better offer or getting in still hoping for a better offer or both at the same time. It may be long term holders finally giving in or locking in a profit by selling a percentage. Regardless of the reason the price is holding above the $1 offer. While this is going on the company is probably happy to stall for time and get the plant operational. Is there anyone local who can go to the local watering hole and get some "pub talk".?
 
Anyone still holding Allegiance ?

It looks well supported and they have got an exceptional ore ,.

Fundamentals are worth much to throw about yet , even they'd be eachway bets . Is something built into this price . volumes suggest something , blowed if I know what though , must be good though .......... , best go look into the ore grades etc. . Its a nickel play right ? Looks like it sells money trees by the chart .
 

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Does anyone have the forward forecast from the Geos ?

The ZFX price is suffering monsterously , and from what I have available to me at present I can only get a basic forward pricing of 1.16-1.23

Is there something special about this miner apart from the takeover ?

I have zip on it . Only just finished my PNA looksies .
 
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