AGM - Allegiance Mining

[banska bystrica]

Could jump on again, but more than happy with my outlay and profit.

It's that very attitude that has me bemused. You don't want MORE profit? You could buy at $1.04 and your average would be 70c. Seems like a smart play to me but perhaps most around here are hobby investors and not in the market to maximize their wealth. Each to his own.

 

[banska bystrica]

It's also that "I'm happy" attitude that will see AGM knocked off for far less than it's real worth.

 

[finnsk]

It's that very attitude that has me bemused. You don't want MORE profit? You could buy at $1.04 and your average would be 70c. Seems like a smart play to me but perhaps most around here are hobby investors and not in the market to maximize their wealth. Each to his own.

Why would that be smart???
Where would the extra profit come from, if the share price do not go up further.

 

[banska bystrica]

finnsk,
The holders who are very bullish should have no doubts that the price will only go up from here, or are they actually thinking deep down that $1 is about it?
I back my opinion with $$$, not words. I believe $1.20 is the minimum in a takeover and higher long term if no takeover. That's why I have sold blue chips to load up on AGM.

 

[mexican]

It's that very attitude that has me bemused. You don't want MORE profit? You could buy at $1.04 and your average would be 70c. Seems like a smart play to me but perhaps most around here are hobby investors and not in the market to maximize their wealth. Each to his own.

Already doing well on other stocks, so like I said I am happy. Your a hard man!
Go in for the kill Banksa!

 

[mexican]

finnsk,

I back my opinion with $$$, not words.

So do I, with 2 investment properties in NW Tasmania as well.
So pretty bullish on this hobby!

 

[banska bystrica]

So do I, with 2 investment properties in NW Tasmania as well.
So pretty bullish on this hobby!

This is a stock forum and our debate revolves around AGM on this thread, not investment properties in Tasmania. I am not interested in how many investment properties you have in NW Tasmania. People come to these forums to listen to opinions on companies trading on the ASX.

My point is that all these so called champions/supporters of AGM do not seem prepared to buy them even at these current cheap prices. To me it seems that all the hype about AGM being taken over too cheaply at ZFX's $1.00 play
is just that. Hype. I firmly believe we will not see less than $1.40 by year end if the takeover fails. If the takeover succeeds, it will be at a higher price than $1.00. That is the crux of my argument. An investment in AGM now is money for jam yet about five shareholders I have spoken to are not prepared to buy more shares.
Why do you think the price of AGM has held up when the rest of the market has been caned since the ZFX offer was made? You've got Merryl Lynch, JP Morgan, HSBC and a couple of other heavyweights buying most of the stock. They have done their sums yet the majority of the smaller punters sit there in front of the screen in a trance afraid to buy more.

 

[mexican]

Did you think maybe some investors wallets are not as heavy as yours and are content with the money they have invested with AGM.
We all agree here AGM are a good buy and should go further.
As you say, each to their own!

 

[Nyden]

Why do you think the price of AGM has held up when the rest of the market has been caned since the ZFX offer was made? You've got Merryl Lynch, JP Morgan, HSBC and a couple of other heavyweights buying most of the stock. They have done their sums yet the majority of the smaller punters sit there in front of the screen in a trance afraid to buy more.

What a silly argument. They're not buying up most of the stock. The stock is staying put because there's a blooming offer of $1 sitting there! As long as there's an offer on the table, the ASX can fall 500 pts & AGM will still be at $1+, gosh.... I'd put every penny I have into AGM if it fell below $1 whilst the offer is there, but that is just not going to happen.

Of course there isn't a mad-rush to buy in, if the ZFX offer is withdrawn the price will plummet. A trader stands to make 10%-30% on the possibility of an increased offer, whilst if the offer is withdrawn they're almost guaranteed to lose 30%.

Why should people risk their money like that? Just because you're so convinced? Because you've bought in at these prices, so should everyone else?

Sorry, but your word-tone p has come off sounding very arrogant.

 

[banska bystrica]

They're not buying up most of the stock.

They are actually. Ask your full service broker who has been buying the last month. Big players are buying off small shareholders. The downside is less than 30% if ZFX walk away (which they will not do) and the long term upside is greater than 50%. Seems like a good buy at these prices.

 

[Nyden]

They are actually. Ask your full service broker who has been buying the last month. Big players are buying off small shareholders. The downside is less than 30% if ZFX walk away (which they will not do) and the long term upside is greater than 50%. Seems like a good buy at these prices.

I'm sure a few companies & funds are buying up little pieces - but to say they're buying most of the stock is inaccurate (or rather, misleading). I don't see any announcements of substantial holdings.

Yes, long term upside. You can say that about any spec/non producing stock. XYZ will be worth $X in Y years. That may be the case providing everything goes to plan, but it is not a sure fire 100% thing.

Once again, you don't know that they wont walk away? If AGM's board keeps saying no, even if ZFX up the offer to $1.20-1.30, what - you think ZFX will just keep up'ing the offer? It's in their best interest not to overpay.

 

[rustyheela]

As i see it $1.00 will act as a support until ZFX either up their bid or another player comes on to the scene. what we really want is another player to make a bid and cause some "price tension" thus the price will be pushed up, like wot happened to consmin.

 

[prawn_86]

They are actually. Ask your full service broker who has been buying the last month. Big players are buying off small shareholders. The downside is less than 30% if ZFX walk away (which they will not do) and the long term upside is greater than 50%. Seems like a good buy at these prices.

BB,

Once again you seem to be getting a bit carried away

If this is such a good long term stock then please provide solid evidence as to why, especially if you are posting price targets, or why the short term downside is less than 30% etc. Also do not state things as a 'buy' as this is against the ASIC rules which apply to this, and all other stock forums.

Also, can you provide any actual evidence of who is buying? If it is big players shouldnt there be change of holding notices?

Here at ASF we try to rely on facts, rather than rumours and opinions.

Thanks

Prawn

 

[banska bystrica]

Also, can you provide any actual evidence of who is buying? If it is big players shouldnt there be change of holding notices?

Not necessarily. JP Morgan and other big institutional brokers might not necessarily be buying for one client. I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll have a look first thing Monday at the last two weeks trading and give you the actual figures. Names of brokers and how many they've bought/sold. As you know, these days we are not allowed to see who is doing the buying and selling. All trades used to have a broker code next to the transaction. Now we have to wait three days to see who was buying. This rule change came as a result of the big instos getting annoyed that smaller players were seeing what they were up to straight away and jumping in front of them on the bid.

 

[oldblue]

It wouldn't be unusual for a broker to be advising its clients that a certain situation is attractive, and be doing a lot of business as a result.
Doesn't necessarily prove anything.

 

[banska bystrica]

That announcement today of a drill hole 0.7m wide with 10% nickel is what one would expect from a $7M company rather than a $700M company.
Pure desperation showing from AGM knowing that unless another bidder joins in, the company will be gobbled up at $1.15-$1.20. Finito!
ZFX will end up with a bargain. They can process more ore at their own plant down the road and bump up nickel concentrate production to 15,000 tonnes per annum without too many dramas.
AGM have got caught with their pants down and todays announcement shows it. Laughable really.

 

[nioka]

That announcement today of a drill hole 0.7m wide with 10% nickel is what one would expect from a $7M company rather than a $700M company.
Pure desperation showing from AGM knowing that unless another bidder joins in, the company will be gobbled up at $1.15-$1.20. Finito!
ZFX will end up with a bargain. They can process more ore at their own plant down the road and bump up nickel concentrate production to 15,000 tonnes per annum without too many dramas.
AGM have got caught with their pants down and todays announcement shows it. Laughable really.

Don't agree with you. I suggest you are a ZFX holder looking for a bargain. The results announced are only in line with what the directors of AGM have been saying for some time. They have discovered a great nickel province which will make AGM a great company. AGM have another bidder. It is the current loyal shareholders. I think their bid will win and ZFX will have to look for another target to get them out of their current problem of running out of resource. I hope the directors hold out through this awkward period until production commences.

 

[banska bystrica]

I'm actually an AGM holder. Bought very recently. See prior posts. I've never held ZFX.
Just you wait and see. You will be forced to sell AGM at between $1.15 and $1.20 after ZFX get 90%. It's called compulsory acquisition. You will have no choice in the end.
ZFX are getting a bargain. I agree.

 

[banska bystrica]

The only way AGM shareholders (me included) will get more than $1.20 will be if another company steps up to the plate.
In the absence of a higher bid from another company, what AGM shareholders in their right mind would NOT sell at $1.15-$1.20 knowing that the share price will collapse if ZFX walk away? In this market, AGM are straight back to 60c without ZFX. Take the increased offer that will no doubt be offered and put the cash into something else. Move on.

 

[Ashsaege]

If there were no offers or takeover bids from ZFX or anyone else, AGM's SP would probably be below 60cents as the market is dropping. 55cents, or possibly lower, is probably more around the mark. If i was in for the long term with AGM, i probably wouldn't like ZFX offer.... but im not!