AGM - Allegiance Mining

[nioka]

Well we all know ZFX made their offer now $1 flat, regardless of what they get.
AGM have not given any valuations ... perhaps they are wanting to force out this other bidder?.

Maybe AGM, particularly the directors don't want to consider selling at all or at least until the plant is producing and more nickel is proven. That is when the REAL VALUE will be determined. That is also my opinion.

 

[mexican]

Maybe AGM, particularly the directors don't want to consider selling at all or at least until the plant is producing and more nickel is proven. That is when the REAL VALUE will be determined. That is also my opinion.

I agree with you all the way on AGM Nioka.
You don't have to be a genius to work out the SP would be lower now with the current market but by the end of the 2nd quarter I am confident AGM will be more than $1.
ZFX I am sure know this as well, hence the opportunistic offer. Very smart business move though.

 

[mexican]

Counter punch today for ZFX?
Have not seen any info on Viking for a while, it was a surprise for me today.
Has anyone heard of holders letting go for the ZFX offer?

 

[roland]

Counter punch today for ZFX?
Have not seen any info on Viking for a while, it was a surprise for me today.
Has anyone heard of holders letting go for the ZFX offer?

I don't know if I would call it a "Counter Punch", but certainly a counter response. Zinifex, I am sure, know the value of AGM otherwise they wouldn't have made the takeover bid. Geology is often known, but unproven. I think it's a bit risky for AGM making known the drilling results to the market and Zinifex - especially if the AGM board wants to keep ownership.

Deflated nickel prices are not helping the whole situation, extra resources in a product that has declining demand is not going to help the SP in the short term. It may help with a better offer, or even a third party becoming interested in making a counter bid. These 2 scenerios wouldn't help the AGM board maintaining control.

The obvious intention of the AGM board is to promote holder confidence to reject "low valued" offers. All in all, good news for AGM share holders - not necessarily good for AGM wanting to hold onto their company in the longer term.

Just my I hold ZFX and not AGM - but I am hoping all ASF'ers to do well no matter what happens.

It's such an interesting tassle - very entertaining!

 

[jet328]

I think it's a bit risky for AGM making known the drilling results to the market and Zinifex - especially if the AGM board wants to keep ownership.

extra resources in a product that has declining demand is not going to help the SP in the short term

Please tell us you are not serious about this post?

The demand for nickel is declining? What the? Why would your company be buying?

I can understand being biased and one-eyed, but there is no logical whatsover in your comments

 

[mexican]

I don't know if I would call it a "Counter Punch", but certainly a counter response. Zinifex, I am sure, know the value of AGM otherwise they wouldn't have made the takeover bid. Geology is often known, but unproven. I think it's a bit risky for AGM making known the drilling results to the market and Zinifex - especially if the AGM board wants to keep ownership.

Deflated nickel prices are not helping the whole situation, extra resources in a product that has declining demand is not going to help the SP in the short term. It may help with a better offer, or even a third party becoming interested in making a counter bid. These 2 scenerios wouldn't help the AGM board maintaining control.

The obvious intention of the AGM board is to promote holder confidence to reject "low valued" offers. All in all, good news for AGM share holders - not necessarily good for AGM wanting to hold onto their company in the longer term.

Just my I hold ZFX and not AGM - but I am hoping all ASF'ers to do well no matter what happens.

It's such an interesting tassle - very entertaining!

Yes it will be a very entertaining in the next 1-2 months, I just hope AGM holds out, as it only has 6-8weeks until production.
I do find ZFX saying Ni prices are volatile, rising exchange rate and slow down in international economy very amusing!
I say "Then don't buy it".
Remember Ni was at $6000 a tonne in 2001 and average $15000 a tonne in 2004, people tend to forget where the price was a few years back.
Mining in all fields has increased in cost over the years but the Ni price still outways the cost of minig by a long way.
Ni will still be in demand in years to come, there are alot of major projects around the world that need stainless (300 series). Ni should average $25-$28k this year.
ZFX had a good come back today, I thought if they keep this low for a while some one might tap them on the shoulder holding some cash!
If there is a third party in the back ground, Xstrata thats my guess! Now that would make it more interesting but I very much doubt it.

 

[nioka]

The obvious intention of the AGM board is to promote holder confidence to reject "low valued" offers. All in all, good news for AGM share holders - not necessarily good for AGM wanting to hold onto their company in the longer term.

Just my I hold ZFX and not AGM - but I am hoping all ASF'ers to do well no matter what happens.!

ZFX holders have a different slant on this matter than genuine AGM holders. They don't GET THE MESSAGE that WE DON"T WANT TO SELL AT ALL. We want to have the returns due to us for faithfully waiting for the benefits of LONG TERM PRODUCTION from what probably is the best nickel deposit around. (then we will take over ZFX--- if it is worth the price)

 

[mexican]

ZFX holders have a different slant on this matter than genuine AGM holders. They don't GET THE MESSAGE that WE DON"T WANT TO SELL AT ALL. We want to have the returns due to us for faithfully waiting for the benefits of LONG TERM PRODUCTION from what probably is the best nickel deposit around. (then we will take over ZFX--- if it is worth the price)

ZFX is trying to cause AGM holders to have doubt about AGM's ability of being a top Ni miner.
Funding, volatile Ni prices and so on.
AGM's latest rejection postcard really states the obvious thoughts of ZFX's opinion of Avebury and thats why we DO NOT WANT TO SELL!
We only have 6-8 weeks to go until production, pretty much in the home straight just this hurdle to get over!
Its not like we have to wait 1-2 years for production, then maybe the offer would be attractive to some.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

ZFX is trying to cause AGM holders to have doubt about AGM's ability of being a top Ni miner.
Funding, volatile Ni prices and so on.
AGM's latest rejection postcard really states the obvious thoughts of ZFX's opinion of Avebury and thats why we DO NOT WANT TO SELL!
We only have 6-8 weeks to go until production, pretty much in the home straight just this hurdle to get over!
Its not like we have to wait 1-2 years for production, then maybe the offer would be attractive to some.

ZFX is more than happy to wait, it is funny that the AGM board just keep showing all the private information and making ZFX valuation of AGM easier and easier

I bet ZFX is waiting for production to start and if AGM fails for one reason or another, it will be time to cook the AGM meat.

WBII

 

[alicemaude]

Hard to see AGM failing though. There is an increase in the findings and the chance of more to come. I had to sell to pay for some thing else (OXR) but think the ZFX offer is far too low.

 

[andy.]

Alice,

I agree, hard to see AGM failing this close to production after all their challenges being overcome over the years, transforming a greenfield site in the middle of Tasmaia into a modern mine, ready to commence production.

Some of the tactics being used by ZFX and it's supporters are quite disgraceful though, I guess they justify their actions by claiming it's all for the greed of money.

I have been suspended from HotCopper for critising them for only banning AGM holders from the AGM thread!

If there is an Australian equivalent of the UK FSA (Financial Services Authority), can someone please post a link to it, as I wish to email them.

 

[HOT STOCKS]

Andy,

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[banska bystrica]

I have been suspended from HotCopper for critising them for only banning AGM holders from the AGM thread!

Take your bat and ball and go home Andy. What a sook! Screaming to ASIC will be a wasted exercise. Your type is the reason I don't bother with HC.
This forum is about stocks, not byeching about another stock forum.
ASIC have got better things to do than worry about AGM holders whinging about what was said on a public forum.

 

[nioka]

Don't take too much notice of ZFX holders Andy. They seem to think they are one above the country hicks that hold AGM. It is only their frustration with the AGM holders not accepting their undervalued offer and the declining ZFX share price that makes them say the things they say. I can't imagine anyone being banned at hot copper though. They seem not to have the same standards as ASF.

 

[Bushman]

Check out the 393m bid at $1! What an odd thing to do. Anyone want to guess at who has raised the bid? It would have to be ZFX.

Interesting manouvre.

 

[roland]

Check out the 393m bid at $1! What an odd thing to do. Anyone want to guess at who has raised the bid? It would have to be ZFX.

Interesting manouvre.

I think it would be more likely to to be an AGM director. I was watching the bids today and in my opinion it would certainly be advantageous for the AGM directors to keep the SP above the offer from Zinifex. Which AGM shareholder is going to sell out at $1.00 if the share price is above that???

In the meantime, Zinifex are slowly getting full disclosure on resource value - with references.

Personally I think Zinifex put in an interesting offer to the AGM shareholders to stir up some Director feedback to reveal more than they wanted to. The further disclosure from AGM is revealing that the resource is probably worth more than the $1.00 bid offered from Zinifex - but at least Zinifex got the AGM directors to do the work of correctly valueing the company and the longer term prospects.

I wouldn't be surprised if Zinifex were to increase the offer after the expiry of the current offer.

Just my and, yes, I am a Zinifex holder.

Good luck to all AGM & ZFX holders

 

[vishalt]

Anyone going to buy into this stock if ZFX fails? Looks good with all the Chinese interest and the mine nicely aboot to start production .

 

[nioka]

I think it would be more likely to to be an AGM director. I was watching the bids today and in my opinion it would certainly be advantageous for the AGM directors to keep the SP above the offer from Zinifex. Which AGM shareholder is going to sell out at $1.00 if the share price is above that???

In the meantime, Zinifex are slowly getting full disclosure on resource value - with references.

Personally I think Zinifex put in an interesting offer to the AGM shareholders to stir up some Director feedback to reveal more than they wanted to. The further disclosure from AGM is revealing that the resource is probably worth more than the $1.00 bid offered from Zinifex - but at least Zinifex got the AGM directors to do the work of correctly valueing the company and the longer term prospects.

I wouldn't be surprised if Zinifex were to increase the offer after the expiry of the current offer.

Just my and, yes, I am a Zinifex holder.

Good luck to all AGM & ZFX holders

I'd like to think there was an AGM director with $393m. If there was I think they would have invested it in AGM a long time agnly a week or two till production starts then we will see what AGM is worth.

 

[roland]

I'd like to think there was an AGM director with $393m. If there was I think they would have invested it in AGM a long time agnly a week or two till production starts then we will see what AGM is worth.

Nioka, interesting comment - I wasn't suggesting that any one director was buying "all" the shares, please don't read something into the comment that is not there.

 

[Logique]

The 1 February Zinifex letter "It's money in the bank" was very strongly worded, and I think will sway many undecided AGM holders. The letter talks about the certainty of cash in an uncertain market, with the offer expiring 8th February and so on.

The crunch clause is where ZFX say that there is a strong likelihood that AGM's share price will fall "once the Offer closes". So AGM holders will have to be prepared for such an eventuality (that is unless ZFX or the nebulous "third parties" come good with a higher offer), and be confident enough and patient enough for the value of AGM to re-assert itself in the share price.

While this may sound like it's coming from a ZFX perspective, I'm actually on AGM's side here, and not accepting the (current) offer. But let's be fair, there will be some holders for whom the ZFX offer will suit their circumstances, and thats their choice.

Also I think ZFX has done a favour to AGM and all holders, by invigorating AGM's mananagement team, and prompting increased shareholder focus and information flow. And by giving all of us a better idea of the future potential of AGM.

So grateful thanks to Zinifex for that. And lets talk $1.60 or so ok?