AGM - Allegiance Mining

[mildew79]

Through 0.69 just now. May find 0.670 today.

 

[Halba]

I'm going in again on this one soon. Sort of softened my negative stance after reading all the reports. Rumour is they are offerring a SPP/placement to existing shareholders. Can anyone confirm?

 

[Gutterboy]

G-day,
New to all this, but i hold most of my portfolio in AGM, which in my(totally unquallified) opinion is close to a sure thing.
Am i wrong?
Is there any way AGM wouldn't get to production, besides a catastrophic drop in the PON?

Thanks

 

[Halba]

I doubt it, they are pretty advanced already. I doubt much fall in nickel price is coming but who knows.

 

[mildew79]

I doubt much fall in nickel price is coming but who knows.

Carefull Halba, if everyone had that opinion this stock would likely be above its long term resistance of 0.735 already. Alot of caution needed entering nickel atm. I do hope you are right though

 

[chicken]

Carefull Halba, if everyone had that opinion this stock would likely be above its long term resistance of 0.735 already. Alot of caution needed entering nickel atm. I do hope you are right though

Nickel at over $22 a lb or $50k a ton ...reason for that is.....SHORTAGE of supply....and for the next 12 to 18 months that is a fact of life....stainless fittings will be going up....and 400 million Chinese moving into the Chinese cities...will still move...and their fittings bathroom and kitchen are all stainless...so if any one thinks the price will collaps..??? Just has no idea....the price from here will be steady to up and in 18 months to 24 months we may see easing of the price bar for a world war....NI will still be at a high price....all to do with supply and demand....look at what BHP said...$2 billion it will cost them to get Raventhorpe going....and New Caledonia is also not coming on line for 24 months...Raventhorpe also 24 months...and all these mines which want to get into production...have still a 24months to 36 months wait.....whereby AGM...is mining its NI by contractors now and the ballmill should be getting into place in July...and first production in Aug/Sept....so at the right time to get these $$$$ rolling...after all it took 10years for them to get to this position....AGM starting their production at the right time...when we have a shortage of NI....

 

[jj0007]

I'm going in again on this one soon. Sort of softened my negative stance after reading all the reports. Rumour is they are offerring a SPP/placement to existing shareholders. Can anyone confirm?

You sold because you didnt like the delay...but you are considering buying again because of some positive reports? Weren't you reading all the reports before you sold in the first place?

Yes there is some speculation on a placement. I think they will need one to get over the line. This from HC which is an extract from the ABN Amro report (not confirmed)

"Upcoming capital requirements
AGM held A$51.5m in cash at the end of the December quarter and raised a further A$3.975m via an equity placement to offtake partner Jinchaun in mid January. Comparing the original capital requirement vs current project status, we (conservatively) anticipate AGM will require a further A$40m to see Avebury through to production. Management anticipates an upcoming equity raising, possibly via a combined placement and SPP. Pending further details, we have modelled a equity issue of 73m shares at A$0.55c per share to raise A$40m, which would cause around 10% dilution."

 

[mmmmining]

A coincident?

In last April, Jinchuan got AGM's option at 28c;
Today, Jinchuan got MLX's 13% share at 28c;

Have been told by Chinese, 28 is a luck number. So, who will be the next in about a year time, or sooner?

 

[purple]

A coincident?

In last April, Jinchuan got AGM's option at 28c;
Today, Jinchuan got MLX's 13% share at 28c;

Have been told by Chinese, 28 is a luck number. So, who will be the next in about a year time, or sooner?

come on now mmmmmmining! that is a pure coincidence! the sp fluctuates by the second...

don't tell me in a remote Jinchuan office there is a Maoesque officer checking every price and buys 'em when it gets to a lucky number?

 

[mildew79]

Nickel at over $22 a lb or $50k a ton ...reason for that is.....SHORTAGE of supply....and for the next 12 to 18 months that is a fact of life....stainless fittings will be going up....and 400 million Chinese moving into the Chinese cities...will still move...and their fittings bathroom and kitchen are all stainless...so if any one thinks the price will collaps..??? Just has no idea....the price from here will be steady to up and in 18 months to 24 months we may see easing of the price bar for a world war....NI will still be at a high price....all to do with supply and demand....look at what BHP said...$2 billion it will cost them to get Raventhorpe going....and New Caledonia is also not coming on line for 24 months...Raventhorpe also 24 months...and all these mines which want to get into production...have still a 24months to 36 months wait.....whereby AGM...is mining its NI by contractors now and the ballmill should be getting into place in July...and first production in Aug/Sept....so at the right time to get these $$$$ rolling...after all it took 10years for them to get to this position....AGM starting their production at the right time...when we have a shortage of NI....

i did not say i wasnt bullish on nickel chicken, i merely stated we are overdue for a spot price correction. note "correction". - implies short term price movements to the downside.

you need to realise the market is made up of many kinds of traders using many different trading methods. they dont all have the same view points on buying and selling otherwise the market would not exist.

im sure many traders realise there is a higher risk of a spot price correction after nickels recent advance and are holding back due to increased entry risk. as much as i like this stock, i have only taken a small parcel at this time for the reasons i mentioned. after a correction or more consolidation i shall likely add to this position.

ideally, i would love to see a Ni spot price correction and this stock hold stronger than most other nickel stocks. then we would likely see agm really get moving.

 

[Halba]

yep i'm looking at AGM, but the 10% possible dilution is going to hurt.....

 

[mmmmining]

come on now mmmmmmining! that is a pure coincidence! the sp fluctuates by the second...

don't tell me in a remote Jinchuan office there is a Maoesque officer checking every price and buys 'em when it gets to a lucky number?

Here is a few tips for you when dealing with Chinese:
Good number: 8, 9,28.
Bad number:4,7,13,14,18.

Don't believe, go visit a high riser apartment around Chinatown in Sydney. There is no level 4, and 13. In mainland China, more numbers become superstiution. Pre-paid phone card cost more with a lot of 8 or 9. Definitely, cost less with a lot of 4's.

Anyway, a bit off track. But a company with Jincuan's touch could be a good investment. We have seen its investment in AGM has been been up 150% in less than a year. Can we expect the similar return for MLX?

Who is the next possible target?

HRR could be a good one. But both BHP and INCO are one step ahead.

RMI, very possible. It has Wowo Gap Ni laterite deposit in PNG, a "friendly" country to Chinese. A similar nickel mine, Ramu just nearby controlled by another Chinese company, or

GDM, with a potential huge nickel sulphide project in Tanzania.

Who knows?

 

[chicken]

You sold because you didnt like the delay...but you are considering buying again because of some positive reports? Weren't you reading all the reports before you sold in the first place?

Yes there is some speculation on a placement. I think they will need one to get over the line. This from HC which is an extract from the ABN Amro report (not confirmed)

"Upcoming capital requirements
AGM held A$51.5m in cash at the end of the December quarter and raised a further A$3.975m via an equity placement to offtake partner Jinchaun in mid January. Comparing the original capital requirement vs current project status, we (conservatively) anticipate AGM will require a further A$40m to see Avebury through to production. Management anticipates an upcoming equity raising, possibly via a combined placement and SPP. Pending further details, we have modelled a equity issue of 73m shares at A$0.55c per share to raise A$40m, which would cause around 10% dilution."

NOW, read it again...MODELLED a equity.....that IS NOT what AGM has said...all of you jumping the gun...WITH NO PROVE OF THIS TO HAPPEN....but assumpion is one way of getting the SP for some people at the right price....at lower levels as at present.....it makes me wonder how deceitful people are.....to shake the weak ones out of the share.....but patience is needed as we will have our patday in the end....

 

[jj0007]

NOW, read it again...MODELLED a equity.....that IS NOT what AGM has said...all of you jumping the gun...WITH NO PROVE OF THIS TO HAPPEN....but assumpion is one way of getting the SP for some people at the right price....at lower levels as at present.....it makes me wonder how deceitful people are.....to shake the weak ones out of the share.....but patience is needed as we will have our payday in the end....

Yes the 70m @ 55c is a model ABN Amro has used as clearly stated. Who has jumped what gun???? Who is being deceitful?? What are you on?

Also, note "management anticipates upcomming capital raisings". Reading between the lines it is obvious that they have had discussions with the co. So their guestimate might not be too far away. Based on my last calculation I think they will only need another $10-$20m to get over the line. $40m sounds excessive unless cost has really escalated. At what price they decide to issue is anyone's guess. Won't be happy with anything under 60c.

Holding long term (and have no more cash to participate in a SPP if it comes up)

PS. ABN Amro report on their website --> Here

 

[savtin]

Spoke to AGM representative, and he confirmed that the numbers and figures qouted by ABN Amros are their own. He said he wouldn't dream issue shares at 55 cents......he also said that they still did not know what the mix of financing was going to take place i.e. 50-50 bank or equity , or even if they needed to take out a bank loan, depends on the final amount that they need.

He did say however that they may raise more money now to pay for any items they will need to boost production in the future due to the long lead times (in some instances over 2 years),,,,,,,so they are trying to plan ahead,,,,,he said by waiting for cash flow to come in it may mean they can't get the parts for over two -three years rather than ordering them now.

All is good., ,...he sounded very bullish........................ and I do believe that this company WILL make us all alot of money.

I hold and I wait for my dividend cheques to come in on an annual basis for the next 12 years.

regards
savas.c

 

[chicken]

Yes the 70m @ 55c is a model ABN Amro has used as clearly stated. Who has jumped what gun???? Who is being deceitful?? What are you on?

Also, note "management anticipates upcomming capital raisings". Reading between the lines it is obvious that they have had discussions with the co. So their guestimate might not be too far away. Based on my last calculation I think they will only need another $10-$20m to get over the line. $40m sounds excessive unless cost has really escalated. At what price they decide to issue is anyone's guess. Won't be happy with anything under 60c.

Holding long term (and have no more cash to participate in a SPP if it comes up)

PS. ABN Amro report on their website --> Here

.....Why, if you freighten people..into selling at a lower price...thats what I call being deceitful..even putting rumours out what may or may not happen...same thing.....the person who puts these rumours out is deceitful as by buying these shares at lower prices makes a profit through his or her rumours...

 

[Kipp]

A coincident?

In last April, Jinchuan got AGM's option at 28c;
Today, Jinchuan got MLX's 13% share at 28c;

Have been told by Chinese, 28 is a luck number. So, who will be the next in about a year time, or sooner?

LOL... BSM is issuing options at 28c to existing shareholders... no doubt the Chinese will be in like Flynn!!

 

[mildew79]

found near term support 0.67. a day later than expected. next supports 0.66 & 0.65.

hoping it holds here @ 0.67

unfortunately my trading platform is copy protected so i can only post bigcharts and they are delayed. good reference though. 0.66 support not shown.

 

[savtin]

From the Australian newspaper:--

"Finally, Tony Howland-Rose at Allegiance Mining is seeing the fruits of 10 years of hard work. Mining operations are getting under way at the Avebury mine in Tasmania and drilling is turning up more nickel all the time.

We rate Allegiance a BUY, our normal cowardly caution overcome by London's Fox-Davies Capital putting a target price of $1.26 a share. (ABN AMRO's target, by contrast, is 89c.)

The company was formed in 1997 and Avebury was discovered the next year. The existing resource is 114,000 contained tonnes of nickel.

Allegiance's operation is underpinned by its relationship with the huge Jinchuan metals group in China. Offtake agreements between Chinese corporations and local producers (or emerging producers) are now common events.

But there was a twist in January. Jinchuan had bought some Allegiance shares in conjunction with the offtake agreement, but then two months ago picked up another 7.5 million of the company's stock. The Gansu-based nickel giant had never previously bought a second tranche of shares outside an offtake arrangement, with any company, before that. "

Looking good GO AGM
:-

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

found near term support 0.67. a day later than expected. next supports 0.66 & 0.65.

hoping it holds here @ 0.67

unfortunately my trading platform is copy protected so i can only post bigcharts and they are delayed. good reference though. 0.66 support not shown.

Hope so to Mildew..............damn youre a handsome chap .