AGM - Allegiance Mining
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Sean K
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Perhaps because this provides no value whatsoever, and is just a ramp for AGM.chicken said:I wonder why people remove posts...????maybe they dont like what I posted...look at HC..what was said about AGM.....
Mate,....AGM are starting this years production...of about 5800tons..at $50k a ton about $290million...rising to 10k tons or $500million...maybe even higher...Saxon and Avebury now 17000 tons of NI..and more jorgs on the way...as, NI province established...and you talking about a ramp....I like your style ,as, like SMM you seem to think you know it but I wonder if you do...I said when the SP was 25c...there is a hugh upside now 67cents and the brokers as AGM is in the ASX300.........mining has started...just the milling will start in August or september....I am holding a swag and for good reasons...not a ramp but for good reasons....kennas said:Perhaps because this provides no value whatsoever, and is just a ramp for AGM.
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chicken said:
I think you're underestimating the identified resource.
Avebury 114,000 tons nickel
East Avebury/Saxon 17,000 tons and more jorgs on the way.
Total resource is 131,00 tons of nickel. If nickel is about $45000 per ton, then AGM has an inground value of about $5.9 billion - which I'm not sure how it translates into a share price.
How about this method:
Brokers report (Fox Davies Capital) believes AGM will easily have over 200000 tonnes of contained nickel. But lets use this as a limit. Lets say AGM knock out 8500 tonnes of Ni per annum. Gives them a mine life of 23.52 years. Lets make it 20 then there reserve only needs to be 170000. A few assumptions need to be made here but if we use $US20000 (AUD$25000 tonne at 80c) tonne average for the life of the mine. (this is the biggest variable) cost assumption $AUD5000 tonne. therefore NP $AUD20000 tonne. (tax not included as the company has heaps of tax credits fom exploration, capital and depreciating costs. Maybe a factor later)
$20000 x 170000 = $AUD 3,400,000,000 total profit 20 years
Now using a financial calculator
Inflation rate assumption = 4%
term ( N ) = 20 years
future value ( FV ) = 3,400,000,000
Using this data
Present value ( PV ) = $Aud 1,552,000,000.
Divide by no. of shares 678,000,000.
Equals SP of $Aud 2.29 per share.
this is at production start.
This is just one type of method used. It uses all of the company's earnings and breaks it down in today's dollar terms. Very simiilar to valuing bonds etc.
Increased production rates and increasing reserves will also affect the final figures.
Calcs using PE rates against projected earnings come to similar figures for SP.
I hope this substantiates my SP prediction. All this information is based on my current knowledge and as such is not financial advice. In fact it is all my own personal opinion. DYOR
cheers
Brokers report (Fox Davies Capital) believes AGM will easily have over 200000 tonnes of contained nickel. But lets use this as a limit. Lets say AGM knock out 8500 tonnes of Ni per annum. Gives them a mine life of 23.52 years. Lets make it 20 then there reserve only needs to be 170000. A few assumptions need to be made here but if we use $US20000 (AUD$25000 tonne at 80c) tonne average for the life of the mine. (this is the biggest variable) cost assumption $AUD5000 tonne. therefore NP $AUD20000 tonne. (tax not included as the company has heaps of tax credits fom exploration, capital and depreciating costs. Maybe a factor later)
$20000 x 170000 = $AUD 3,400,000,000 total profit 20 years
Now using a financial calculator
Inflation rate assumption = 4%
term ( N ) = 20 years
future value ( FV ) = 3,400,000,000
Using this data
Present value ( PV ) = $Aud 1,552,000,000.
Divide by no. of shares 678,000,000.
Equals SP of $Aud 2.29 per share.
this is at production start.
This is just one type of method used. It uses all of the company's earnings and breaks it down in today's dollar terms. Very simiilar to valuing bonds etc.
Increased production rates and increasing reserves will also affect the final figures.
Calcs using PE rates against projected earnings come to similar figures for SP.
I hope this substantiates my SP prediction. All this information is based on my current knowledge and as such is not financial advice. In fact it is all my own personal opinion. DYOR
cheers
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I have only done some basic research in to this stock but must say that i am very impressed by what i have read including the report by the London based broker.
goyco...what about peer valuation? Your $2 per share valuation looks excessive when compared to other producers. By the way AGM's current valuation looks excessive, nearly $500m mkt cap. MCR and SMY trade a little higher but they produce. MRE's valuation is the lowest of the lot.
The Fox Davies Capital report is all I need to read to see that AGM are still worth having.
Allegiance Mining A$0.68 Buy with a target price of A$1.15.
Someone has surely posted the link? Just in case its below. I cant be bothered searching through the thread to see if someone has posted it
http://www.allegiance-mining.com.au/docs/Articles/FDC Nickel Sector Report - 26 Feb 2007.pdf
Allegiance Mining A$0.68 Buy with a target price of A$1.15.
Someone has surely posted the link? Just in case its below. I cant be bothered searching through the thread to see if someone has posted it
http://www.allegiance-mining.com.au/docs/Articles/FDC Nickel Sector Report - 26 Feb 2007.pdf
AGM would have to be classed as a potential breakout from here. Having a strong run back up from 55 cents I think it was after the start of the correction. It has been at this level (in the 70's) a number of times. Once we can break out above 72.5 it will run. Usually stocks coming into production such as AGM will tend to have positive runs the closer they bring the mine into production. Thats another reason why I bought into AGM. I knew it would only be a matter of time for some great returns.. theres still more to come yet IMO.
Halba
Peer Valuation? coles, woolies, david jones,harvey norman are all peers but have totally different businesses and as such are valued accordingly. Yes AGM is a nickel company but that is where the similiarities end. You have to do your own research on individual companies and come up with your own valuation
cheers
Peer Valuation? coles, woolies, david jones,harvey norman are all peers but have totally different businesses and as such are valued accordingly. Yes AGM is a nickel company but that is where the similiarities end. You have to do your own research on individual companies and come up with your own valuation
cheers
1. Compare the SP price chart when SMY was at the same stage of development and coming into production.GOYCO said:
2. Compare the production volume ie. The rate AGM will produce and the rate SMY has produced.
3. Compare the costs of production.
4. Compare the reserves proven.
5. Compare the potential to prove further reserves.
That is what I have done. It is called DYOR.
I held SMY from early days and, in my mind, I could see, and still see, potential in AGM. ( I bought another 6000 AGM on Friday)
Thanks Nioka
The question was not really for me but for other posters wondering how to value AGM. SMY is about as close a comparison as can be made to AGM. IMO
Still early days there is still the preproduction risk but as production draws nearer the risk diminishes.
cheers
The question was not really for me but for other posters wondering how to value AGM. SMY is about as close a comparison as can be made to AGM. IMO
Still early days there is still the preproduction risk but as production draws nearer the risk diminishes.
cheers
SMY had their problems when a ring gear failed and they were out of production for a considerable time. Let's hope AGM has a spare part or two to avoid the same drawback. I don't want them to follow the exact same path as SMY. SMY also had the problem of missing out on a lot of income through hedging, AGM should do better there as well.GOYCO said:
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GOYCO said:
Different market cycle, different commodity prices and different Share Structure/Market Cap.........from a retrospective peer comparison.....(SMY-AGM).
And put plainly the market cap of SMY (a producer) a mere 8 months ago was 2OO mil......whats AGM's market cap.......500 mil.
Risk/Reward...............whats the upside? , personally I think AGM is an excellent near term prospect......'just no comparrison with its peers on a past speculative basis'
.I should have included market cap. Sally Malay market cap now $762M.Freeballinginawetsuit said:Different market cycle, different commodity prices and different Share Structure/Market Cap.........from a retrospective peer comparison.....(SMY-AGM).
And put plainly the market cap of SMY (a producer) a mere 8 months ago was 2OO mil......whats AGM's market cap.......500 mil.
Risk/Reward...............whats the upside? , personally I think AGM is an excellent near term prospect......'just no comparrison with its peers on a past speculative basis'
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sellers in control today on the very short term. am hoping these guys avoid the near gap and find support at 0.69. has held strong so far. dry up in volume a good sign. bought a small parcel @ 0.69 for now...
buying power may be awaiting the markets decision/sentiment on spot nickel direction i feel. alot of caution entering nickel atm. charts suggest a correction in Ni spot overdue. If this happens and agm get nailed i shall be taking much larger positions.
break through resistance 0.73 not to far away
buying power may be awaiting the markets decision/sentiment on spot nickel direction i feel. alot of caution entering nickel atm. charts suggest a correction in Ni spot overdue. If this happens and agm get nailed i shall be taking much larger positions.
break through resistance 0.73 not to far away
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