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AEV - Avenira Limited

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Re: MAK - Minemakers

One fugly chart...

Support shown on Friday around an old support level which is encouraging. We had a nice hammer a few weeks ago which was the foundation of a nice rally up to $1.50. Still going down till we make a higher high and low, and in a position to call a potentil bottom however IMO.

Perhaps the JORCs due out will turn focus back on it.

Tempted around these levels but potential lower point on the XAO is causing hesitation.
 

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Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas said:
Perhaps the JORCs due out will turn focus back on it.
Click to expand...
Pres out yesterday which gives a clearer idea of the near time line for progress and when JORCs are due. Arrawarra not till November.

All still seems on track here for production in 2010 at around 3Mt pa.

Interesting AMP are no longer a significant holder. That support was handy and I don't like instos jumping ship.
 

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Re: MAK - Minemakers

Another chart update.

A few red lines splashed about here to see the challenges ahead. Potential breakout areas identified.

Hard to see any upward move until the market settles, or they get closer to production.
 

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Re: MAK - Minemakers


Hi Kennas,

AMP haven't jumped ship but they have been buying more.

They aren't in the substantial holder category now only due to the new shares coming out of escrow therefore diluting AMP's percentage share of MAK.

Cheers!

Champ
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

like minemakers as a long term stock if they produce in 2010 man this stock could go to 30 dollers in no time 200 dollers times 3 million is 600 million dollers in sales meaning a 300 million doller net profit for 2011 man ime buying forget the short term
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi Kennas,

Thanks for the chart.

Do you mind explaining the second green circle (?breakout potential) please?

I suspect the 50c mark will be tested before any breakout though. At least there's Arrawarra in November probably to keep the news flow coming.

Cheers,

Kenny
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Kenny, Around $1.50 is strong resistance. Check where it held support for some time, and then failed more recently. Looks clearer on a longer term chart. Around those levels will be a significant speed bump and a break of that region, and then a test and bounce off, may mean it's changed direction from down, to sideways, to up. Cheers, kennas
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Does anyone know what the outlook on phosphate prices?

I think soft commodities will hold up better as everyone still needs to eat.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

DowJones said:
Does anyone know what the outlook on phosphate prices?

I think soft commodities will hold up better as everyone still needs to eat.
Click to expand...
I've been trying to find a solid review on this, but it's a bit difficult to pin some numbers down.

There is a report by CRU forecasts you can buy, but I'm not willing for fork out any cash on something possibly worthless.

The summary they provide is:

At the time of writing, there are major upheavals ongoing in the global financial and equity markets. With the global economic crisis attacking the fundamentals of not only the financial industry, the commodities markets and other industries have followed suit, starting with grain prices declining. We believe, however, that the fundamentals of the phosphate rock market are relatively sound. This does not mean that rock prices are not expected to fall, but that we believe that the fall will be relatively slow, and the bottom will be significantly higher than previous troughs. True with all commodities, phosphate rock prices are cyclical, running about 7-10 years from peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough of the cycle. Historically, phosphate rock has shown a high level of price elasticity of demand, which we are now starting to see with rock demand destruction brought on by high phosphate rock prices cutting demand by non-integrated processors while high fertilizer prices cut into demand for finished products by all rock processors.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

No change to RP prices during the general market carnage, no far.

Economics of Wonarah, no change, but may be improved due to lower fuel costs, and AUD movements.

Arruwurra JORC due in Nov.

Share price: disaster for late comers.

Plans for the Dec quarter:
 

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Re: MAK - Minemakers

I think MAK will get smacked around for a while as they don't really make $$$. Wait to it gets closer to 2010 and fingers crossed on the RP prices staying strong.

Whats the source that you should use to see current RP prices as it is not traded on an exchange like the LME?

Also, what do ppl think of the stock BON? Another phosphate player in Afria and Sth America.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas said:
Support shown on Friday around an old support level which is encouraging.
Click to expand...
That support level was at around 50c, where a hammer appeared. See that chart. Updated chart sees a double bottom with another hammer, possibly forming a double bottom. Looks a little rounded on the bigger picture. Am I clutching at straws?

 

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Re: MAK - Minemakers

There's a few charts looking like this at the moment.

A potential bottom of some sorts perhaps in place.

Still an unknown as to how much is factored in.

Breaking that 80 ish ish level looks important.

Great wall of china at $1.50 ish ish...
 

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Re: MAK - Minemakers

Arruwurra JORC out.

Great tonnage, crap grades.

Was expecting plus 20% and many punters (inc me) were praying for +25% closer to DSO.

While there may be sections close to DSO, looks like lots of beneficiation to me.

Not what the doctor ordered.
 

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Re: MAK - Minemakers

Does anyone know for sure what their transport costs are? They are not positioned close to any major infrastructure and one would think they will need to move it by road up the Barkly highway before they can ship to their proposed export markets. My concern is that with the Moroccan phosphate having a relatively low cost of production and the price of phosphate still falling away they will be at a significant disadvantage. One would also think that they will be looking to raise further capital in the near future and in this current market that will need to be at a discount to their present market price. Interested to hear other peoples thoughts...
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

They have been quoted as saying that the total opex cost would be between $100-150 which includes the transport solution.

I think that's too conservative, just because I like thinking worst case.

RP price has not moved that I know. Still over $400 tn.

Infrastructure is the highway and railway and Darwin Port.

Just need some sheds, a fleet of trucks, a rail siding, and NT Gov is developing the Port, they say.

The plant is going to be the extra cost in capex which has been uncertain. DSO would have meant nil. Non DSO and they have to turn dirt with RP into 29% RP plus for export.

 
Re: MAK - Minemakers


C'mon Kennas,

What are you talkin about regarding DSO???

It was clear in the announcement written in black and white that DSO is a real possibility and that it will probably be in the main zone as that is where they have 35+ grades!!!!!!!!!!

Won't be long now and we will have another resource upgrade for Wonarah and then the scoping study followed by a more detailed BFS for DSO.

Alot of interest will start to flow into MAK soon IMO.

Cheers!

Champ
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers



AD has said recently that there will be NO capital raising in the near future. They have alot of 30cent options expiring soon as well so that will increase their cash position substantially.

Champ
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

champ2003 said:
C'mon Kennas,

What are you talkin about regarding DSO???

It was clear in the announcement written in black and white that DSO is a real possibility and that it will probably be in the main zone as that is where they have 35+ grades!!!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...
I said there may be sections close to DSO Champ, but it remains to be seen whether there is enough to warrant removing the overburden to get to a small area of DSO. Sure there are some individual drill holes above 28% which is good, but it will need to be relatively widespread in one particular area to be worthwhile wouldn't you think?

The ann still states potential for DSO, but confusing to me the ann states that the DSO potential is in the Main Zone.


Let's be conservative, or any result less that expectations will be smashed in this environment.
 
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