AEV - Avenira Limited

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

It would be nice to think that this is a short term severe correction in commodities and all will recover.

It's hard to stay medium to even long term positive with such dramatic losses in stocks. I've never seen this before, except for the Tech wreck. I think I lost about 50% during that, and I was 'diversified'. lol. This time, just about all in resources less cash, and I'm paying for it. Should have moved more out earlier. Lesson learn't, again. Although, I suppose the only smart place for money the past 6 months was in the bank, or short everything.

The fundametals, and the risks, are still there with MAK, no change. In fact downside risks may be slightly better with oil coming off, which should reduce opex. We've seen all the numbers about what they can earn related to current mc.

Overall risk to the general markets are being factored in at the moment with a deeper and longer downturn perhaps expected. I can't see how that will effect the demand for Ag related stocks at the moment. They are a different kettle of fish to base metals aren't they?

 

[Speewha]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hello,

Well MAK has ducked under the $1.00, This will have a lot of people hurting the market is cruel and unforgiving place at the best of times, let alone during the current conditions.
As far as I can see from the top twenty share holders including AMP there have been no sellers will be interesting to keep an eye out to see if that changes.

MAK is just another spec stock with great potential, the difference is the market fell in love with it, before it was even a teenager. All adolescents get a big ugly as they grow up, and it seems the love has been lost. I am sure as MAK gets closer to being an adult the market and MAK will reconcile.

I have to tell a little story here, I received a phone call from Etrade today threatening to close my account for market manipulation ! I have been putting in orders to buy a stock at the offer price (not MAK ), admittedly the offer price has been pretty north of the last sale price it seems I rang some bells at the ASX, and have received a warning. We are talking a .095c share and small parcels that are within my budget. It seems if my orders were bigger it would not get noticed.

I am only putting this here as large institutional bot trading is perfectly legal as we have discussed on this thread and there is nothing to be done about that. Irony can be a funny thing.

Regards

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Looking at the chart, not much resistance at 80c, stronger resistance at 40c, but would certainly leave it up to the more experienced who post here to better interpret, and I encourage you to.

 

[Pigsy]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yes I agree. Looks like a free fall to 40cents. Unfortunately for me who bought at $2.40. But so you all know the markets not getting my money, I'm prepared to go down with the ship.

 

[derty]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I'm not much of a technical analyst, though I do remember reading that strength is shown on down days. The volume for MAK today is more than has been seen since late May. There was certainly a lot of buying into the panicked selling in the hour or two after the open.

I wonder if we are starting to see some of the "smart" money stepping in? Certainly if this volume had been dumped into the support seen in the last week or so MAK would have been 40cents today. If anyone can add to my amateurish observations it would be appreciated.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I'm not much of a technical analyst, though I do remember reading that strength is shown on down days. The volume for MAK today is more than has been seen since late May. There was certainly a lot of buying into the panicked selling in the hour or two after the open.

I wonder if we are starting to see some of the "smart" money stepping in? Certainly if this volume had been dumped into the support seen in the last week or so MAK would have been 40cents today. If anyone can add to my amateurish observations it would be appreciated.

I'm not much of one either derty, but I agree with your comments here. Looks like a capitulation day to me. A hammer with a very long tail, on volume and stopping at some support. Could be a turnaround signal.

Could be.

Wouldn't be game to call anything in this market.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Funny there was significant buying yesty and then they bring out a very good ann.

Some DSO potential there, which is what MAK holders want.

Could it be the turna round point?

Market is still crap IMO.....

HIGH GRADE PHOSPHATE RESULTS
14 August 2008

The drilling and assaying programmes to date have illustrated an extensive distribution of high grade rock phosphate. Table A below provides an example of some high-grade results at both the Main Zone and Arruwurra Prospect at Wonarah.

Managing Director, Andrew Drummond stated,

“These are great results and illustrate why we have been extending the drilling
programme to the limits of the currently agreed areas at both the Main Zone and
Arruwurra. Based purely on assay considerations, with persistent hits at 20%
P205 or better over an area now totalling over 25sqkm, the immediate planning
challenge is where to begin the mining for the best economic return for
shareholders. The potential to produce DSO is very exciting.”

See ann for the details.

 

[Bushman]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Funny there was significant buying yesty and then they bring out a very good ann.

Some DSO potential there, which is what MAK holders want.

Could it be the turna round point?

Market is still crap IMO.....



See ann for the details.

Surely it should be. DSO grades means less capex. Good in the midst of a credit crunch I would have thought. Should add a premium to what the deposit is valued at.

You cannot change overall sentiment but I think with this deposit the sentiment has been ridiculous. Investors are a melancholy bunch.

PS: I do not hold so not a ramp. If I had some cashola, I would buy at $1. Talk about a gift horse.

 

[hsm2008]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

wanted to buy minemakers for a while, but saw in was in a sell zone, so i waited until today where i jumped on it @ $1.05 after it went up 8%, it is still believe it's in a sell zone but don't see alot downside based on fundamentals, i mean a 80 million dollar company that could make 10 times that in a couple of years, come on. The shareprice may still slip down, but what i could potentially lose dwarfs what i could make. shareholders are just going to have to wait 1 year plus i reckon to see real results on share price.

in the short term expect the stock to trend down, or follow the ipl price up and down

 

[kenny]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

good luck to you hsm2008. What signal prompted you to jump in. I imagine there are a few watching from the sidelines for this one.

Cheers,

Kenny

 

[hsm2008]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

it was up 8% up at the opening, and it closed higher yesterday so basically in the spur i decided that it might rally.

Looking at the chart now however I see alot of negative signs. such as the 3 moving average not pointing up (now sideways) and below the 30 day moving average which itself is pointing down, and a alot of long black bars on the candle chart. People have been happy to sell this thing off at $1.3-$1 recently.

One positive aspect is that it still ended up closing higher today. it might signal a start of a rally if it can do the same tomorrow.

 

[hsm2008]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

know mak has phosphate rock not phosphoric acid, but i thought this might be interesting

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13 August 2008 12:17 [Source: ICIS news]

LONDON (ICIS news)--Moroccan phosphoric acid producer Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP) has agreed third- quarter contracts with Indian buyers at a price up $325/tonne from the second quarter, India trader sources said on Wednesday.

The new price was reported at $2,310/tonne CFR (cost and freight) although no-one at OCP was available to confirm the deal.

The news ends months of wrangling between OCP and Indian buyers.

OCP had consistently indicated that it would hold out for $2,500/tonne CFR, in line with what it had already achieved in European markets, arguing that prices needed to increase to cover rising sulphur feedstock costs.

However, reports that another North African producer, Groupe Chimique Tunisien (GCT), had provisionally settled at $2,200/tonne CFR with its Indian buyers were thought to have undermined OCP’s position, traders said.

GCT was now understood to be renegotiating its third-quarter price with customers in light of the price achieved by OCP.

During the protracted negotiations, phosphoric acid supplies to Indian buyers, who use the product to manufacture finished phosphate fertilizers, were disrupted, sources said, in turn reducing output of domestically produced fertilizers.

However, OCP was now indicating that it would ship four vessels within the next week to bolster supplies.

To discuss issues facing the chemical industry go to ICIS connect

By: Mike Nash
+44 20 8652 3214

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also in the age

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Shares in junior mineral explorer Minemakers Ltd jumped on news the company continued to find high-grade rock phosphate at its wholly owned Wonarah project in the Northern Territory.

At 1221 AEST, the company's shares were up 12.5 cents, or 13.16 per cent, to $1.075.

The company plans to begin production by 2010 and will assess the potential to produce a direct shipping ore (DSO).

"DSO production would result in lesser capital and operating costs," it said.

Managing director Andrew Drummond said the immediate planning challenge was "where to begin the mining for the best economic return for shareholders".

Rock phosphate prices have skyrocketed since January last year from $US50 per tonne to between $US450 and $US500 a tonne by late July.

Rock phosphate is used mainly in agricultural fertilisers.

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[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I'm not much of one either derty, but I agree with your comments here. Looks like a capitulation day to me. A hammer with a very long tail, on volume and stopping at some support. Could be a turnaround signal.

Could be.

Wouldn't be game to call anything in this market.

Not a really convincing follow through yesterday, so not a confirmed turnaround to me. Wanted to see a white candle finishing close to the daily high, on decent volume. We had the opposite, even though it finished up because of the gap.

That is one very ugly downtrend.

Smart money should have taken profits before or on those breakdowns.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I wonder if we are starting to see some of the "smart" money stepping in?

Not a really convincing follow through yesterday, so not a confirmed turnaround to me. Wanted to see a white candle finishing close to the daily high, on decent volume. We had the opposite, even though it finished up because of the gap.

That is one very ugly downtrend.

Smart money should have taken profits before or on those breakdowns.

I don't hold this yet but keeping an eye on it.

Since I've taken an active interest in EW I'm seeing bludy EW waves in everything now.

I did the maths to make sure and in a zig zag 'a' often equals 'b', which is what has just happened here... except this is a double zig zag... and over shot a tad, hence the hammer.

Looks a pretty good chance to turnaround soon to me.

 

[hsm2008]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

It stunk yesterday really stunk, this thing might/will drop down to 40/50 cents, don't care, if they ever get into production soon enough (< 2 years) we will be all cashing in big time, don't thing the price of rp will dip below $200, which should mean they would be profitable. Mr drummond needs to be concerned with getting to production as soon as, and not casing up people buying 1 stock parcels on the exchange.

 

[hsm2008]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

yes l'm obessed but however

http://www.centralianadvocate.com.au/article/2008/08/15/3121_news.html

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$1.5b railway plan centres on Tennant

Carenda Jenkin

15Aug08

A PLANNED rail link from Tennant Creek to Mount Isa would cost $1.5 billion and make the NT town Australia's freight hub.

Australian Transport and Energy Corridor (ATEC) is researching the link between the regions to see if the plan would be economically viable.

Their report is expected to be handed to NT Government and the Mount Isa City Council next month.

Perth-based Minemakers hope to start mining rock phosphate ore about 230km east of Tennant Creek in 2010.

So far the company has found 72 million tonnes of the ore at Wonarah and they hope to find a lot more.

The project is yet to finish a feasibility study and is subject to approval.

But Minemakers managing director Andrew Drummond backed the rail plan with enthusiasm.

He said the Wonarah project would have a minimum life-span of 20 years.

He said: "Freight costs by road are four or five times higher than by rail. So rail would be the cheapest way of doing it.

"Production is aimed at 2010 and there is no way a railway will be built by then.

"Phase one would see us moving three million tonnes a year by road train along the Barkly Highway to Tennant Creek, then by rail to Darwin.

'If there was a rail line from Mt Isa it would give us a huge ability to move six million tonnes.''

It is uncertain who will foot the bill if the rail line gets the go-ahead.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Somebody tell mr swan to start using that budget surplus to invest in some port and rail in this country, too many miners i read up on constrained by transport cost and/or port allocation, it isn't like the country wouldn't benefit, as it already has, through the extra taxes collected by the increased mining business in recent years. It would also be excellent for farmers as supposedly agribussiness is set to boom in the next couple of years.

 

[hsm2008]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

from the bussiness standard, an indian bussiness daily
------------------------------------------------------------------------
`Govt policy not favourable for greenfield projects`

Q&A: R S Nanda
Ch Prashanth Reddy / Hyderabad August 19, 2008, 0:16 IST

Director and chief operating officer of Nagarjuna Fertilizers and Chemicals, R S Nanda, feels that the shift in government policy in 2002-03 has affected the growth of fertiliser industry in the country. He tells Ch Prashanth Reddy that due to the policy shift, the industry margins are shrinking and there has been no capacity addition, leading to shortage of the vital agriculture input. Excerpts:

What is the reason for the current product shortage in the fertiliser sector?

The change of government policy in 2002-03 is the main reason. At that time we were self-sufficient in urea production. Now, we are importing 6-7 million tonnes at a cost of about $800 per tonne. Because of the heavy imports, the subsidy amount has also shot up from Rs 30,000 crore to Rs 1.2 lakh crore this year. The government is also not coming to grips with the actual subsidy it is giving to the farmers. There is going to be a gap of about Rs 85,000 crore-Rs 90,000 crore between the budgeted and actual subsidy this year. Since no new production capacity has come up, situation will be worse in the coming years if the policy changes are not made.

Why there is no capacity addition in the industry?

It is again the government policy, which is not favourable for setting up greenfield units in the country. Year after year, the margins of fertiliser companies are declining.

Do you expect the new fertiliser policy to be helpful in this regard?

As per the current indications, the new policy will surely give some encouragement but only for additional production by the existing units. For setting up a greenfield urea project, huge investments are required. For instance, to set up a 1 million-tonne urea plant an investment of about Rs 4,500 crore is needed. To sink in such kind of money, the new policy has to be long-term and fairly attractive.

What kind capacity additions do you expect from the existing units following the new policy?

The revamp of existing plants following the policy announcement is expected to bring in an additional urea capacity of about 2.5 million tonnes. As the average domestic price of urea is about $230 as against an import price of $800 per tonne, this will lead to a saving of Rs 800 crore to Rs 1,000 crore in subsidies.

Is NFCL also going in for capacity expansion?

Yes, we are planning to add 200,000 tonnes to the existing capacity of 1.3 million tonnes. The expansion project is estimated to cost Rs 250 crore.

Why are many domestic fertiliser units exploring overseas projects?

We don't have enough raw material like natural gas, rock phosphate and potash (NoP). Wherever there is availability of raw materials, the companies are exploring. Besides, as I told, the government policy so far has not been favourable for starting greenfield projects.

It does not give the kind of returns the companies will get abroad.
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looks to me that (a) there will continue to be shortages and (b) alot of money is going into getting raw materials, i don't imagine that all those investment made, including those by indian fertilzer companies can be expected to be recouped if rp is going back to $50.

 

[hsm2008]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Content.asp?ContentID=246623
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Wheat Producers Should Keep Phosphorus Prices in Perspective

MANHATTAN, Kan. - Phosphorus (P) fertilizer prices are high, no question, but wheat producers should not overreact to the lofty price tags by cutting back on phosphate fertilizer if it ´s needed for the wheat crop, said Kansas State University agronomist Barney Gordon.

"Where soil phosphorous levels are low (10-20 parts per million Mehlich III or Bray-1 P) or very low (less than 10 ppm), the likelihood of a wheat yield response to phosphorous is greater than 50 percent," said Gordon, who is the agronomist-in-charge at the K- State Research and Extension North Central Experiment Field near Belleville. "Often, the yield response is great enough to more than pay for the phosphorous fertilizer, even at today ´s prices."

In mid-August, prices in Kansas for dry and liquid forms of phosphorus ranged from $1 to $1.30 per pound-approximately 180 to 210 percent higher than a year ago.

Wheat tends to be highly responsive to P input if the soil test category is low or very low, he said. Phosphorus is generally the second-most limiting nutrient in wheat production behind nitrogen, but in some areas of the Great Plains, phosphorous is even more limiting than nitrogen.

"Early-season phosphorous deficiency can limit wheat yield potential. The first five to six weeks after emergence is the critical period. Wheat absorbs about 18 percent of its total seasonal phosphorus uptake in just the first two weeks of growth," Gordon said.

Phosphorus has major impacts on tillering and rooting of wheat, and an early-season P deficiency can reduce those important aspects of growth and development, he explained. In turn, a poorly developed plant is more susceptible to stresses in winter and spring.

"It doesn ´t take much added phosphorous fertilizer, with the proper timing and placement, to have a big effect on early-season development and yields," the agronomist said.

Later-season phosphorous deficiency has a much lower impact on wheat production than early-season phosphorous deficiency.

Gordon said the biggest response to phosphorous will come from placing the fertilizer with the seed -- either as a dry product, such as 11-52-0, or a liquid, such as 10-34-0.

Broadcasting P can also improve early-season wheat growth in some cases (especially on soils testing medium for Mehlich III or Bray-1 P). But, broadcasting is less efficient and requires a higher rate to obtain a similar response, making it more expensive.

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[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Am I deaming or did MAK go up 9% ish yesterday?

Surely not a green day?

Still on a slippery slope.

While the market's still wobbly I'm not sure if we'll see any great recovery here. Risks are that RP corrects a bit and that will be a stock to the system, and that the scoping study says Opex is going to be much higher than the sub $100 tn expected.

If all goes to plan though, and they get to mining in 2010 with Opex about $100 tn and RP above even $200, it's way undervalued, as has been discussed too much.

Still, watching for a recovery to add more.

There's a few bumps on the way back up but the main one will be around that $1.35-40 ish zone where it completely fell over.

 

[blogs]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Went green on a short rally after looking like it was gunna go mid to low 70's. Monday will be interesting but still get the feeling its gunna keep drifting down-has been being sold into for quite a while now, with the ocassional spree of people buying into the asks. If she was gunna break the down I would have thought the latest announcement would have done it, so back to T.A I guess to see where and when...