AEV - Avenira Limited

[Wilson!]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

There was a quarterly out, plus one non exec director sold 700,000 shares on market recently, but still holds 2m shares

A bit of spec on why he sold, the usual doom and gloom spec but who cares, they are entitled to make money also, director fees arent huge, and he still holds 2m

No other directors sold and they did their roadshow this week
Imo all good, but may drop off a bit today but then again, who knows

they still have a few bucks sp value imo

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

they still have a few bucks sp value imo

Wilson, you must post up some analysis to make any call like this. I haven't seen any sp valuation in the thread giving an FA value.....

 

[Wilson!]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi kennas

This was posted by vayama on TS

Minemakers Limited
EARLY FINANCIAL PARAMETERS:
1. FROM 2/07 INDEPENDENT STUDY
OPEX
CAPEX AU$18M

2. ASSUME
OPEX RISE AU$100/t
CAPEX ALSO TO INCLUDE BFS AND ESCALATION AU$30-40M

3. CURRENT MOROCCO SALES
200 US$/t FOB AU$230/t

4. COMPARED TO MOROCCO AND AU$20-30/t
MIDDLE EAST, AUSTRALIA HAS A FREIGHT COST ADVANTAGE

5. POTENTIAL AND COMPETITIVE MARGIN AU$100-150/t

6. INITIAL TARGET 2-3 Mtpa
(2% of WORLD OUTPUT)


Highest case scenario is $150 margin on 3M tonnes production = $2.50 EPS or $25 share value.

 

[Wilson!]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Also worthy of reading, especially so in fact is this article published on Monday

Imo whilst anything is a risk, this has producer and multiples higher written all over it...

--------------

Note this paragraph,

"The brokers have yet to work out what Minemakers might be worth, but some back of the envelope calculations suggest it should be valued in dollars rather than cents".


Minemakers (MAK) 56c

Tim Blue | January 23, 2008

CRITERION went back to his textbook yesterday and looked up the bit that said D for diversification. It didn't do much good, but it did help him find M for Minemakers, a would-be miner that is about as diversified as you can get.

Not only that, its share price has been a bolter in the past week and may be one to hold up over time.

Its big thing is rock phosphate, the stuff that becomes fertiliser on the garden and on food crops. As chief executive Andrew Drummond said yesterday, markets may crash but we've still got to eat and produce crops.

It may have escaped your notice but there's a new cartel in the world for rock phosphate. Treat it with various acids and it becomes superphosphate, which agricultural producers must have, so much so that the price has quadrupled in a year.

Minemakers has a feasibility study under way on its Wonorah deposit near Tennant Creek, which holds the country's largest undeveloped phosphate resource. It has been drilled previously by Rio (up to 2002 when phosphate was 20 per cent of today's price). If all proves well the rock could be trucked to the central Australian railway line and shipped out through Darwin to Chinese customers.

Besides the in-flavour phosphate asset, Minemakers also owns Australia's largest fluorspar deposit (formerly Comalco-owned) in Tasmania, and recently began uranium exploration in Tasmania, which may be Australia's second-friendliest uranium state after South Australia.

Minemakers has drilled several old uranium prospects in the northeast of the island state. Before it could do so, it had to overcome opposition from the Tasmanian Greens Party, which landed a no-exploration-or-mining bill in Parliament.

The bill it didn't get up, as the government and opposition teamed up to make sure Tassie did not miss out on the uranium exploration boom.

Minemakers also has the old Rossarden tin and tungsten deposits in Tasmania's northeast among its key properties. Drummond knows a good uranium prospect when he sees one, having worked in the 1970s and 1980s with the likes of Uranerz, and he sees Rossarden for its uranium potential rather than its historic tin and tungsten deposits.

The brokers have yet to work out what Minemakers might be worth, but some back of the envelope calculations suggest it should be valued in dollars rather than cents.

Criterion ranks it a speculative buy.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi kennas

This was posted by vayama on TS

Minemakers Limited
EARLY FINANCIAL PARAMETERS:
1. FROM 2/07 INDEPENDENT STUDY
OPEX
CAPEX AU$18M

2. ASSUME
OPEX RISE AU$100/t
CAPEX ALSO TO INCLUDE BFS AND ESCALATION AU$30-40M

3. CURRENT MOROCCO SALES
200 US$/t FOB AU$230/t

4. COMPARED TO MOROCCO AND AU$20-30/t
MIDDLE EAST, AUSTRALIA HAS A FREIGHT COST ADVANTAGE

5. POTENTIAL AND COMPETITIVE MARGIN AU$100-150/t

6. INITIAL TARGET 2-3 Mtpa
(2% of WORLD OUTPUT)


Highest case scenario is $150 margin on 3M tonnes production = $2.50 EPS or $25 share value.

Cheers Wilson, I've seen these about and I can't argue with the valuations I've seen come out, but this one is, as you say, is best case. Based on minerals staying higher for some time of course, which could be likely.

 

[Wilson!]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

No worries kennas

Also found out today the directors are travelling from the broker roadshows today, to go straight across to Europe

Whilst speculation flew around as to why, it was posted elsewhere that the Aberfoyle Tin/Tungsten is in JV with an Austrian Tungsten company - so that could of course be the reason

Apparently their tungsten project is more advanced than anything, so this could lead to some even better news short term

Of course, until we know for sure, it remains speculative, but seems extremely encouraging

Cheers,
Wilson

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Also found out today the directors are travelling from the broker roadshows today, to go straight across to Europe

Whilst speculation flew around as to why, it was posted elsewhere that the Aberfoyle Tin/Tungsten is in JV with an Austrian Tungsten company - so that could of course be the reason

The arrangement is only an MOU with Wolfram Bergbau, which can be expanded to a JV if they deem the project a goer. With the recent tungstan assays coming up 30% higher garde than first reported this could be the case. This would be the first significant relationship for MAK to get fully tied up in and will see them advance from explorer to developer. Speculation, but an announcement along these lines would be welcome.

Other than this, not sure what the next significant news will be. I've been expecting the aeromag survey results from WS to be announced imminently with drilling targets identified.....

Chart wise, consolidating after the breakout. Bit of a largish pennant thingy formed. Volume going off could indicate distribution, or is that accumulation? A break up from this formation gives quite a target. Could only happen on news you'd expect. WB MOU perhaps?

 

[Wilson!]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas I am a bit upset over the way mak has been trading
As I have said elsewhere:

What the hell is going on?
This should be a few bucks in a year or so, and yet these idiots are selling it down 10c??

Come on people, where's the logic
Squillions of $ of phosphate, 2 years to production approx, IPL is $101 share price, mak 46c

What do you think of the silly trading today??

 

[zengin]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I am with you on this one Wilson
only 77 trades
shocking volume
too many sellers
and down by 15%
I thought we were going to have a good day on Wednesday but saying this I have about 20 stocks on my watch list and there was very few that did well.
Spec stocks may not be the in thing these days?

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Broken down from that pennant by the look. Would have probably jumped ship if I was technically trading it. Seems to have bounced off the last level of support at 40 cents, likewise Oppies bounced of 20.. Interesting hammer candle representing a potential reversal, but the volume tells me it's been distribution. Any thoughts on that?

I'm not quite sure how a company can have two current projects with IGV of about $60b, which will have a relatively low capex/opex, and the mineral prices are on the up, with a MC of about $50m...

 

[Trader Paul]

Re: MAK - Minemakers



Hi folks,

MAK ... has some very significant time cycles coming into play,
over the months ahead ..... and should be very strong around:

24042008 ..... 3 positive cycles here

28042008 ..... 2 time cycles, expecting positive news.

12052008 ... 2 cycles and positive spotlight on MAK = VERY STRONG ? ...

16-19052008 ..... 4 cycles ... may bring longer-term changes ... finances?
..... should be quite strong until a minor cycle on 19062008

... but, the best part for MAK is another VERY STRONG run up is
expected, starting early December 2008.

have a great day

paul

P.S. ... there's many other time cycles for MAK throughout 2008, but
those posted here are probably the highlights for the longs.



=====

 

[Wilson!]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Guys I agree, kennas it is amazing, with IPL share price hitting $128 or so today, that mak should not be quietly drifiting up and up in value

It has to be the most undervalued share on the market, based on its fundamentals.

Below is what I havwe posted elsewhere. I always believe in backing up my statements with facts or indepth breakdowns.

-------------

just check out IPL's share price today, if you want to get excited about the mid to long term potential for MAK / MAKO

Not saying it will get to $126 a share straight away or at all, but they claim they have Australias largest undeveloped phosphate discovery, and the price of phosphate is going through the roof, and is stated to continue

So, people say Mak has been ramped a bit, well, fair enough I say, based on this - it's pure logic surely?

- IPL is $126 a share
- Mak is 51c a share
- Yes they are very different companies so not trying to draw a direct comparison, or mislead in any way
- Mak believe they have Australias largest undeveloped phosphate discovery
- the price of phosphate is going through the roof
- In a few years time, how much could mak be producing, compared to IPL, and what would that value the share price at
- When they get news to the market of BFS, feasibility, etc, any news at all, the shareprice wont be below $1 thats for sure
- Oh, and then they have tungsten (quite advanced project), tin, iron and gold up their sleeves
- And then the broker roadshow has seen positive press coming out, and broker recommendations already starting to surface
- In one article last week we saw a comment along the lines of, brokers cant put an exact figure on what the share price should be valued at, but that it should be in dollars, not cents

So I guess at the end of the day, its easy to start jumping up and down on HC, waving our shareholder MAK / MAKO flags, but ultimately, the reason for me personally investing in this company, is the absolutely massive potential, for multibagger returns, based on solid fundfamentals in the mid term onwards

Cheers,
Wilson

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

- IPL is $126 a share
- Mak is 51c a share
- Yes they are very different companies so not trying to draw a direct comparison, or mislead in any way

Willo, I think the Rock Phos is going to underpin MAK for the rest of the year while their other projects are worked on, including drilling WS which could be a company maker in itself....

In regard to the sp's, this doesn't mean too much without knowing shares on issue. Perhaps IPL has 100 shares out there......

How do the market caps compare??

And, while we're comparing, it's probably important to point out any other projects IPT have that could underpin the price...

I'm looking into it myself because on the surface of it, it seems rediculous...

Cheers,
kennas

 

[Wilson!]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hey kennas, yes well said mate

IPL has a market cap of $1.06b
MAK has a market cap of $20m

Will have to look into what other projects IPL have on the go
But yes, whilst early days, does seem likely the early days of a baby IPL - I am struggling to find any faults here.

For now the phosphate is inferred not indicated, but all signs point to it being so soon.

And once confirmation of this change occurs, then well, we know what should happen

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

For now the phosphate is inferred not indicated, but all signs point to it being so soon.

And once confirmation of this change occurs, then well, we know what should happen

I'm particularly interested in those drill targets outside the resource estimate that are 30%+. In the ann today they stated they were about to be able to confirm drilling contracts to get the JORC sorted and move on. Wonder if they'll put a rig down there and get another target sorted for further expansion....

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I'm just wondering why BHP would have sold Phosphate Hill to IPL (our only phoshate currently being mined). 30 years of mine left there I read. Nice pickup for IPL - just in time to get rises from $50 to $200/tonne. I like MAK - the rail line already there being such an integral part of getting the project off the ground. Don't hold yet...but I will soon.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I'm just wondering why BHP would have sold Phosphate Hill to IPL (our only phoshate currently being mined). .

Grace, I think it's the same reason why RIO sold to MAK. The current price of the mineral, and other priorities.

AEX sold Langer Heinrich to PDN for a few cents..........

 

[Wilson!]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas

re: I'm particularly interested in those drill targets outside the resource estimate that are 30%+. In the ann today they stated they were about to be able to confirm drilling contracts to get the JORC sorted and move on. Wonder if they'll put a rig down there and get another target sorted for further expansion....

- I am sure they will be making this somewhat of a priority
During their broker roadshows they wouldnt have been saying, well we'll certainly do out best and see where things get to

They will be working on fast tracking the tungsten project (ie as they may be in the UK now) and working on securing drill rig to get things going with the phosphate

As I said, I can't fault anything here, and any bumps along the way, well hell, PDN and IPL certainly had a few bumps on the chart in the early days, and they 1-2 years later, wow.

 

[Wilson!]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Also just to note, look at slide 16 of presentation lodged 22 January.
It gives you a good timeline of the company expectations in relation to BFS, procurement and financing etc

So, could be on the way to starting production within 2 to 2.5 years possibly

Rail line, as mentioned is already there. just rail it to port, and ship it to china and india

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Rail line, as mentioned is already there. just rail it to port, and ship it to china and india

Willo, I think they mean the Alice to Darwin link don't they that goes past TC. Still need to get it to that line, so they'll have to put in a link I think. It's 230km away isn't it? Not sure how capex can be $18m if it is required. Other options??

PS, the potential reversal I noted above may may have been confirmed with yesterday's bar. On better volume I would have more confidence.