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AEL - Amplitude Energy

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Announcement out from COE today.

The drawcard here is Menzel-Horr. The scenario, as I see it, is the following:

* We now have confirmed drilling for a spud Dec.21-24. This is a positive as punters have a set date.
* Menzel-Horr has an estimated P50 target of 24 million barrels. This is not a small target.
* Menzel-Horr has 3 target zones (to my understanding). This allows punters to hang in for a while and in a sense, have 3 cracks at success.

The downside (apart from the usual weather/equipment breakdowns that all drills face) is
* COE is not a 'sexy' stock. I'd like to think a potential 24mmbl is a good lure but COE doesn't usually get the same support as some explorers at times.
* Christmas???How many punters are playing over the break?
* There are some other drills currently/about to spud in or near that time. Will this distract from COE? My guess is 'yes' but the question is how much?


Given where we are now, I'd like to think that 55c is a strong possibility pre-spud but given the scenario above, time shall tell. Probably a quiet fortnight ahead then hopefully the cash starts to move in.
 
I'd like to think so to BESBS!! I'm in more on fundamentals than spec, given they have more than half of their MC in cash and the Tunis JV with Jacka values that block alone at another half of their MC.

Which leaves current production of 400k barrels a year valued at zip

That surely leaves some room for serious SP appreciation IMO
 
Hi Jono,

I'd like to agree about fundamentals leaving plenty of room for SP appreciation. In the current market, though, I'm not sure fundamentals are really being valued as we might hope. COE is an example...the SP has been flat and I sense that any SP appreciation shall be linked to Menzel-Horr at present.

Either way, we both gain in the short-term.

Cheers,
BESBS
 
Getting closer to the stated late December spudding.

Hoping to see some strengthening in the SP in a week or so.


Holding COE.
 
BESBS Player said:
Should hear an announcement re. drilling in Tumisia any day (assuming no stuff-ups).

Holding COE at 43.5c
Click to expand...

No news yet regarding the spudding of the Menzel Horr well in Tunisia despite this article in upstream online on 21-12-10 - 10 days ago.

"Rig heads to Bargou spud site. The H&P Rig 228 is on its way to the Menzel Horr-1 well site, off the coast of Tunisia. Jacka Resources, which has a 15% stake in fellow Australian explorer Cooper Energy’s Bargou exploration permit, said the rig had been mobilised yesterday, and was expected to take around seven days to complete.
Jacka said in an earlier announcement that the well was expected to take about 24 days to drill, and is one of two wells Cooper plans for the permit.
The Bargou permit is located within the Pelagian basin and includes both on- and offshore areas along the coast of Gulf of Hammamet."

I hope that progress is being made and its not a stuff up.
I patiently hold
 
 
ASX release:

"We are pleased to inform shareholders that the H&P 228 drilling rig commenced drilling the Menzel Horr-1 well in Tunisia at 1830hrs (Tunisia time, 7 hours behind Perth) on 3rd January 2011.

The Menzel Horr Prospect lies wholly within the Bargou Exploration Permit, Tunisia, which Cooper Energy was awarded in 2006. Cooper Energy is the 85% owner and Operator of the permit. Jacka Resources (ASX: JKA) is earning 15% in the Permit.
The Menzel Horr Prospect is a robust thrust-bound, dip-closed structure and there is the potential for hydrocarbons to exist at multiple reservoir horizons. Potential exists for a much larger upside volume to exist should the bounding faults be proven to seal.

A depth versus time curve is attached to this announcement. It is expected that the key target formations will be encountered between 10 and 25 days.

Michael Scott, Managing Director, noted; After a thorough and long planning phase we are pleased to have spud Menzel Horr-1. The geological feature appears to be robust and the prospect is in an area that has a number of proven oil and gas fields. We are expecting to spend around $5 million and the potential exploration reward is 20 million barrels of oil an excellent risk reward ratio that has limited downside and large upside. Success at Menzel Horr would be expected to substantially change the value of the Company."

Looks like we are away...


Holding COE at 43.5c
 
Maybe hitting first of 3 zones by Monday/Tuesday?

Should be interesting to see if the market acknowledges this (up or down). So far this has been a disappointing build-up.


Holding COE at 43.5c
 
:
BESBS Player said:
Maybe hitting first of 3 zones by Monday/Tuesday?

Should be interesting to see if the market acknowledges this (up or down). So far this has been a disappointing build-up.


Holding COE at 43.5c
Click to expand...

True to my BESBS strategy, I have sold out of COE as we are fast approaching the first of possible results at M-H. Decided to move funds across and play a quick BESBS play on SUR.

Overall, as a BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before Spud) play, COE has been a disappointment.

Oh well, guess a profit is a profit at one level.

Bought: 43.5c
Sold: 45.5c
Profit: Barely 4%
 


Hi BESBS
well done on turning a profit and being true to your strategy.
I think that in your ealier post you accurately summarised the difficulties facing COE in the lead up to drilling this potentially company making well. It is not a sexy stock and it has generally been ignored by the market. The spudding of this well has had no impact on the SP.
According to the "depth versus time" chart accompanying the ASX announcement on 4-1-11 the first target, the Ain grab formation limestone, should be intersected on or about the 13-1-11. Hopefully, some one apart from us will take notice.
I got in a few years back when COE was still a fledging explorer in the Cooper Basin so I am now free carried my current holding so my strategy is wait and see.
Good luck with your play with SUR .
 
Cooper Energy Ltd says drilling at its joint-owned well in Tunisia has been suspended due to political unrest in the country. Cooper Energy said the declaration of a state of emergency in Tunisia had forced the suspension of work on the Menzel Horr-1 well.
President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali has fled Tunisia after protests against his regime, and opposition parties are currently working to form a national unity government.
The site has been secured and drilling will resume as soon as normal operating conditions resume, Cooper Energy said.
 
Hi Philly,

Thanks for the compliment on the trading strategy. Ultimately you don't go broke in this game ifyou preserve capital and take a profit (even smaller than wanted!).
Not sure if SUR will do much but hoping for a little rise next week.

Good luck with your trading.

BESBS
 
 


Hi folks,

COE ... price stirring today, ahead of a positive time cycle,
expected around 17-18022011 .....

have a great week

paul



=====
 
It's been 8 days since the last ASX report regarding the Menzel- Horr well in Tunisia. It should have encountered the secondary target a few days ago and should be reaching TD soon yet no news .
Instead yesterday they release a speculative report regarding Hammerent which isn't due to be drilled until the end of the year.
Are they trying to soften the disappointment???
Any thoughts??
I hold
 

The Menzel-Horr well has been P&A after it failed to find any hydrocarbons. Strangely even with all the modern technology this well proved to be completely off track. It was drilled 500m more than the proposed TD and couldn't even find an oily rag. Will need to re assess before drilling the next well. In the meantime back to the trusted Cooper Basin to keep the income flowing. A very disappointed holder.
 
anyone notice the substantial rise in share price of late?

I wonder who is doing all the buying....

I have a small holding that I've had for a little while and am glad to see the value being realised
 
Surprised the COE launched a takeover bid for SOMERTON ENERGY when BEACH ENERGY holds 56% of the shares in SOMERTON ENERGY. If BEACH doesn't like the offer then bid is thwarted. Anyway wait and see.
 
philly said:
Surprised the COE launched a takeover bid for SOMERTON ENERGY when BEACH ENERGY holds 56% of the shares in SOMERTON ENERGY. If BEACH doesn't like the offer then bid is thwarted. Anyway wait and see.
Click to expand...

They would have evaluated that before making the bid. In the future it may be a fish swallowing a fish swallowing a fish if you know what I mean.

Anyway, COE has some attractiveness. I thought I posted on my entry but apparently not. apologies.



They have cash.



They are earning money as well. With more to come, approx, 40M / annum now.



they are consolidating at these levels at the moment but a move through 70c may not be far away assuming all this takeover action gets bedded down quickly. It's a scrip offer I think so that won't hurt cash too much.
Will update after more digging. Anyone add anything ?
 
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