ADY - Admiralty Resources

[techtrader]

I've been thinking the exact same thing. This stock is down 25% !!!!
On the other hand maybe there will be a recovery in the next couple days.

 

[skating101]

The dow futures is giving the indication that a recovery is unlikely, at least in the next few days, I might sell up and then buy up after the dip but as always DYOR

 

[skating101]

sold @ 21c looking to get back in tomorrow at around 16c - 18c, this is pretty ghei there are articles on yahoo talking about a crash like black monday tomorrow lol

 

[nikki]

good luck skating 101. you do realise that if the XAO and XJO goes any lower the correction will be a 1 in 20/30 year event. . . . . . selling at absolute lows would be just as fearful for me because of the strong potential of a strong bounce.

i am with you roland, i thought of selling other stuff as well to buy more ADY at these prices but ??????

 

[rub92me]

My buy at 21 cents got filled, but 20 cents never got hit and I don't think it will today either. Looking forward to a bit of green in ADY today after a dismal couple of weeks.

 

[techtrader]

I think yesterdays low of 0.21 was the lowest that stock is going to see . Oh well skating don't feel to bad better then losing all your money.

 

[roland]

ADY looking to bounce a little - pre open depth is looking very nice. I am not unhappy to have gotten yesterday's parcel.

 

[roland]

Very nice news, up nearly 40%

Admiralty Resources NL
ACN 010 195 972
GPO Box 517, Melbourne 3001
Level 14, 200 Queen Street, Melbourne
[t] 61-3-96701838
[f] 61-3-9670 1898
www.ady.com.au
STRONG RESPONSE TO US$50M LITHIUM TENDER
13 COMPANIES SELECTED FOR SHORTLIST
The board of directors of Admiralty Resources is pleased to announce that Rincon Lithium
Limited, currently a wholly owned subsidiary of Admiralty Resources NL is developing one of
the world’s largest lithium, potash, sodium sulphate and sodium carbonate production
facilities in the world.
Rincon has had a substantially higher level of interest than expected in response to its
tender to sell 10% of its final production level of 17,000 tonnes of lithium products per
annum, per year for ten years over the period June 2009 to June 2019. Interest has been
received from commodity traders, battery manufacturers, financial commodity dealers, and
traditional minerals wholesalers around the globe.
More than 70 companies applied, and the shortlist has been reduced to 13 companies. All
the finalists have signed or submitted a final version of the confidentiality agreement.
The tender covers:
● Supply of 10% of production for 10 years. The successful tenderer will make a
prepayment in mid 2008 of the profit margin, expected to be between US$40m and
US$60m for the 99.0+% lithium carbonate product.
● An exclusive agency agreement for the sale of Rincon products in Asia, covering
40% of production
● An exclusive agency agreement for the sale of Rincon products in the Americas,
covering 10% of production
● The balance will be sold by Rincon’s sales and marketing team.

 

[skating101]

good luck skating 101. you do realise that if the XAO and XJO goes any lower the correction will be a 1 in 20/30 year event. . . . . . selling at absolute lows would be just as fearful for me because of the strong potential of a strong bounce.

i am with you roland, i thought of selling other stuff as well to buy more ADY at these prices but ??????

Hey nikki yea you can imagine how I'm feeling now, all the talk of doom and gloom got to me and I really didn't expect the fed to step up early yesterday. I'm really not all that sure what I'm gonna do now. I'm expecting a dip tomorrow so I might go long when that comes along or I might even just wait it out, there is still a lot more doom and gloom to come which could give me an entry. You must be pretty happy though lol

 

[nikki]

Hey nikki yea you can imagine how I'm feeling now, all the talk of doom and gloom got to me and I really didn't expect the fed to step up early yesterday. I'm really not all that sure what I'm gonna do now. I'm expecting a dip tomorrow so I might go long when that comes along or I might even just wait it out, there is still a lot more doom and gloom to come which could give me an entry. You must be pretty happy though lol

hi skating101, i agree the doom and gloom stuff is hard to deal with. i was looking for a break of 5000 before i considered selling anything.

look for the index holding onto 5450 (XJO & no XAO). if it does this is not a dead cat bounce and personally i would buy more today in the hope of making something short term.

good luck to all. today's announcement re lithium shows the potential of RLL for so many years to come and I am so pleased to be holding ADY.

 

[MS+Tradesim]

I picked up another 1/4 of my position yesterday. Now just waiting to see which way it goes before filling the rest. Great announcement. I'm even thinking about leaving some of my other picks small to load up on ADY again.

 

[nikki]

I picked up another 1/4 of my position yesterday. Now just waiting to see which way it goes before filling the rest. Great announcement. I'm even thinking about leaving some of my other picks small to load up on ADY again.

have to say, i was surprised that PT made this announcement. not complaining. i assumed it was to be done in february after the demerger. although, he does say that the demerger will not happen until march so maybe he wanted to let the market know how well things were going!!!

the income RLL is going to generate is huge and given the costs of productions it seems we could even be earning dividends in a few years

 

[semochen]

hi everyone...

just want a few opinions on the valuations of the 2 companies after the demerger

I'm pretty confident that it's worth a lot more than it is now.. but the fact that it's come down all the way from 50c not so long ago.. and staying down here is a bit of a worry. Of course the market is to blame for...?

As of the lithium side, they'll be producing 17000tonnes/year, assuming 99% purity will be at $6000USD/tonne = around 100million/year. Given they currently have around 1000M shares.. will be EPS of 10c where current SP is at 25c??
This will increase if they produce better than 99% or if lithium price goes up (as per ADY NOV2007 presentations)

The recent announcement for prepayment of 10% x 10years for $50M... therefore a large discount for the prepayment??? Am I reading this right?

As of the iron side... does anyone have ideas on its earnings?

Help appreciated

 

[rub92me]

hi everyone...

just want a few opinions on the valuations of the 2 companies after the demerger

I'm pretty confident that it's worth a lot more than it is now.. but the fact that it's come down all the way from 50c not so long ago.. and staying down here is a bit of a worry. Of course the market is to blame for...?

As of the lithium side, they'll be producing 17000tonnes/year, assuming 99% purity will be at $6000USD/tonne = around 100million/year. Given they currently have around 1000M shares.. will be EPS of 10c where current SP is at 25c??
This will increase if they produce better than 99% or if lithium price goes up (as per ADY NOV2007 presentations)

The recent announcement for prepayment of 10% x 10years for $50M... therefore a large discount for the prepayment??? Am I reading this right?

As of the iron side... does anyone have ideas on its earnings?

Help appreciated

The calculation for Lithium is roughly the same as I have, but need to add about $10 million profit for the Potash. Prepayment for 10% is for the profit margin rather than the revenue, hence the lower amount. It is essentially a hedge and a prepayment and in return the rights to sell another 50% of production.
For the iron ore I'm projecting about $20 million profit for financial year 2009/2010 if they meet their expansion targets.

 

[semochen]

Thanks rub92me~

Needed some reassurance on this one

Figures look good to me.. and the recent announcements are not bad either

What's worrying me is the demerger being so close in view, valuations should be well under way for many investers.. but the sp not showing any signs of excitement (buy on the rumour) as I would have expected.

 

[kerosam]

i am looking to get back in again. but today it appears to break thru the 25.5cts support, near 10 day MA but not above price... strange thing is RSI shows quite oversold... anyone reading these signals as well or otherwise??

anyhow, will monitor this one very closely.

 

[roland]

i am looking to get back in again. but today it appears to break thru the 25.5cts support, near 10 day MA but not above price... strange thing is RSI shows quite oversold... anyone reading these signals as well or otherwise??

anyhow, will monitor this one very closely.

I think trying to anaylse ADY in the current overall climate is going to be quite difficult and your comments are appreciated

Trying to seperate real chart data amongst the termoil of the general market is a skill that is beyond my experience, but the news coming out of ADY is all positive and I feel that the SP is lower than it should be. I'm still in positive territory with ADY and if the SP drops further, then I may sell something else to get some more.

All looking good in MYO

 

[nikki]

I totally agree Roland.

I think what we have been seeing is short term traders making the most out of the bullishness that exists amongst the informed in ADY. . . . . . . . I think we should see a massive jump in ADY's SP on monday and if not i will start to worry because i cannot see how this uptrend in the indexes will continue for much longer (i.e. lucky if the DJIA makes it to 12900 before reversing backwards to retest 12000) . . . . . . . Which will have a great impact on ADY . . . . . . . . . . when our index was @ 6000 points (will get there on monday i think) ADY was trading in the range of 0.33 - 0.36.

So, i took the opportunity to buy more ADY last week only to be called brave by someone i know but i figure that it is so undervalued @ the moment even when one campares it to the other bargains that are available amongst the small and micro caps . . . . . .

Good luck to all of you holding ADY. . . . . .

 

[semochen]

6.3 earthquake in far northern-Chili/southern Peru region..

don't know what effects this has on ADY..

the Iron sites & port is in north Chili, a few hundred Km away

and Rincon in north Argentina near Chile border.. so shouldn't be a problem

 

[roland]

I don't think ADY has any infrastructure that's over 6 feet high. (joke only). Could stir up the brine ponds a little