ADI - Adelphi Energy

isn't the reason for casing in they expect very different pressures b/w 2 zones? ie b/w Sligo and Hosston...I thought they indicated they were doing casing in last week's report?

Agentm said:

This is the way I see it..

initially there was a plan to drill an 8 1/2" drill bit from 14,200 to TD, with the plan to go clean through Sligo and then into the primary..

last week we get the news that the Sligo is methane only... ok thats cool,, I like success just like anyone else on this stock. then they stop.. run wirelines and then case it in..

Hang on case it in????

This wasnt in the plan.. we were told 14,200 to TD 8 1/2" drill..

Ok so they dont announce any fan fare on sligo,, and if you know the territory then you know the reason.. so why case it in??? was there a stacks of pressure there?? too much to deal with??? need to case it in and make it easier to drill away???

Questions questions questions?????


So whats with the casing in and suddenly drilling away with a 6 1/2" drill bit???

isnt this a little bit esscessive if Sligo wasnt anything other than just a mathane only gas show.. where is couchy when we needed him most???


My moneys on Sligo being commercial and having far to much pressure and needing to be cased in for obvious engineering reasons so as to allow successful further drilling away...

anyone follow my thoughts here??


cheers

Click to expand...

It always seems on this job that we can learn or gleen more from what is either not said or what is slipped in casually, that we werent expecting a therefore gives us clues to speculate on - There must be a reason not to tell us - must it mean that the reason is price sensitive (prob).

I think they are telling us the bare minimum that will legally keep us all informed by the rule book.

I think your opinions make sense - and nothing is SET IN CONCRETE till the testing is done (pardon the pun). They are probably trying to secure additional acreage before they confirm anything for sure, until testing.

COME BACK COUCH ALL IS FORGIVEN

From a poster on EME on the ADVFN thread:-

Safiande - 25 Oct'06 - 07:15 - 14424 of 14425 edit


Agentm is correct. Original chart had final casing at 14500ft & then drilling all the way down to TD. That extra casing at the top of Hosston back thro ´Sligo might have been for the reasons given in last week ´s RNS but as a consequence they seem to have " lost " several days drilling time in that they only drilled 480ft in 7 days. Perhaps Sligo is more interesting than they are letting on ?

yes, they reported it last week,, i didnt really check into it until re reading what they originally had planned..

today i begin to wonder why would you just case off gas shows?? and when announce pressure differences then its got to mean that sligo did have pretty good kick behind it..

if sligo wasnt kicking any significant pressure then they would have just kept on going.. they never planned to wireline sligo until TD, and they talked about doing the primaries and sligo at the end together..

last week i was sorta staggered that the market saw the report as negative, and if you think why they had to change things around, its sorta obvious,, the pressure differences are the real issue..

now until now, i never thought that announcing that the pressure in a secondary had to be cased off would be a real downer to the market.. i maintain the austin chalks and sligo are bonifide successes, and for them to successfully drill away and log accurately in the hosston sands they had to drill further until they had no pressure shows,, run a casing and seal it away so they can get on towards hosston sands..

the share price drops away on the news..

I was rechecking their original plans,, and i know they wanted to drill into the hosston sands with a big a drill bit as possible,, so casing off would have been a tough decision and only done if absolutely nessesary..

my feeling remains that the secondaries, both the austin and sligo, are complete winners,, the drill to hosston now goes ahead with a smaller drill bit, but without complications with pressure..

in my opinion the market has not factored in the value of the secondaries in any way.. and the stock is in my opinion exceptional value..

i think the price dropped this afternoon because day traders were anticipating big news today. For memory the same thing happened last week. This stock has been going between .43 - .49 for the last few weeks on anticipation of a news release

Well been at work all day and have missed out on some telling questions ie casing the Sligo formation.
From my recolection of last weeks ann it didnt say Sligo was totally methane it also said there were a few gas shows which the board needed too consider as to wether futher drilling should be done too establish if commercial gas was present

rmember the stuff Tarzan posted a while back,, i run the numbers all the time and sorta see what couchy was so excited about

on to the lovely piece of stuff couchy put out last october,, remembering that porosity is the key to volume of gas,,

I hope our current 75% success rate will increase to 80% with this technology. I hope to lead the funding charge of several companies that will share this technology looking for larger reserves or elephant hunts as we have found with the Sugarloaf well. I try not to get excited when it comes to research… because we and affiliates have failed so many times before. Initial results on about 6 wells successful wells say we are finally…. maybe… on the right track.

The new seismic tool allows us to look for at least 20% porosity within about 6% points + or -. Some of the work station boys think they can get this down to a 4% or 2% variable. I say ..”show me”.. Each 2% points probably adds 1 BCF in reserves (with 100+ acreage drainage) per planned multi zone well. That is only a $10 million dollar reserve improvement per well. That will pay for each elephant hunt type well… alone… just with the porosity or reserve improvement. A poor result for a deep well would be 10 BCF or $100 million. 1 TCF possible … as in the Sugarloaf is $10,000 million or $10 Billion in reserves.

then charlie says

20,000 Acre Four Way Closure – new porosity seismic technology – 15 years generating this prospect. Two Trillion (not Million… not Billion…. but Trillion) Cubic Feet of Gas Potential – I can hear the elephants stomping


with what he says, i then look at his announcements regarding porosity of the Austin chalks (which i hear are reasonable accurate) and if you apply what he announced regarding the secondary find in the austin chalks your maths has to be similar to his,,

The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.


Ok what part of couchys maths has he miscalculated?? 12% porosity in the austin chalks folks!!! thats 12%!!!!!!!!!!!!

the guy has spilled everything.. porosity, the works!!! and the forums are still debating about whether sugarloaf is a success...

If you follow ole couchy and his research,, then you delve further into the eureka porspectus,, then you see 5% porosity is the weak side of the equation.. and they have some strong ideas about porosity before they drilled.. and confirmed high porosity via the now famous couch blunder. and unless i am mistaken. all calculations for ADI and EKA and EME and AUT regarding reserves were done on the 5% porosity equation
my guess is that couchy's research was sound,, my feeling is that the porosity estimates were maybe understated in their preliminary research,, we may be in P30 territory or higher,

mr couch was absolutely astounded and beside himself, and going nuts about drilling away everywhere as the porosity was so high the payback on the well was hardly an issue,, the issue was well availability and capacity to deliver..

so far its only me and couchy who are excited by the numbers.. everyone seems to disagree with the postings of couch and the results posted on the asx..

the market has just completely blindsided the info and also failed to see importance of the staggering success of the primary austin chalks based on couchys massive blunder..

they have a fair idea what the porosity of the hosston sands were WITH THE RESEARCH, they obviously have been researching this prospect for some time couchy says 15 years in the making.. all steps so far are successful,.. and if all the other zones were bang on.. then you have to start forgetting about stomping elephants and start how your gunna spend the dollars these guys are talking..

2TCF is what couchy predicts,, its is like 3 times what anyone has calculated in their figures..

this makes hosston a extremely attractive target..


am i seeing things wrong here or what???

Agentm you know I dont doubt you and your research I am with you all the way as for Sugarloaf being a sucess I have always had the feeling that ADI just go on the bare minimum on the estimates as is shown with the weekly update I just wont fully belive it till sp is $6.50 maybe because i have so much riding on ADI at the momment a bit nervous I must admit

you should always be comfortable with your exposure to any stock..i'm not asking you to buy adi.. i hold the stock and am in for the longer haul now..
always do your own research,, check and check again..

i always wait a long time before i move on a stock, all my stocks have either doubled trebled or higher... i dont like saying that as a boast,, its the way i work,, my targets are pretty high,, so i follow teams of directors.. and successes,, its the way i work and until it stops working for me i stay with the formula..

i rarely sell.. unless theres a buy out, takeover or change in management. and
all stock that i have to sell for those reasons are reinvested and top up the projects i follow..

i dont carry large portfoilio as each time i find my target it gets bought out or something changes,, but the ones that stay i follow through to the objective that i invest for..

remember always follow your own research and if your in doubt then its wise to get out..

cheers

Every investment has its own form of risk ADI is no different but it has positives too invest in.
Good management,Texas 1 of the worlds great oil and gas areas, backing of ARQ, New Taiton too fall back on,cash on hand, good buisness plan model there are many others especially as more about sugarloaf gets revealed these are some of the things to consider when investing

If, or when, sugarloaf comes good,what do people think how far the share price will go, then if new taiton shines through, how far will that push the price? I've seen $6.50 mentioned? Then what about ARQ, any thoughts on how it may affect their share price?

remember porosity.. the deeper the tighter.. what you want is good numbers..

6TCF is the max sugarloaf can hold,, best numbers

800BCF is what they did their projections on for the Australian and UK figures,,

so when you hear $6.50 around the place then your seeing rock bottom 5% porosity figures.. and half of what is possible to extract gas from, 800BCF, remember that 5% is the lowest that the sands should be to be commercial,, so basically they are saying if half the hosston plays are productive then 800BCF is what they expect at 5% porosity.. and you get the magic $6.50 number..

give me that anyday!!!

The independent research in the US put the P50 at 1.5 TCF which would be about $12 staring point for the hosston sands.. upside is 6TCF WOW!!!!!!!!!

Lets get down to size..

USA imports 1/4 of its gas needs per annum.. 4.4TCF is shipped and piped in per year for the local domestic market..

Hosston sands could have 1.5 years of what the USA import needs per annum are...

So the research figues in the us were halved for the sake of the conservative approach by the likes of ADI.. why?? because thats the way they work,, conservative and with a level head.. if you look at EKA and see how the AUT directors feathered their nests and got into sugarloaf big time by taking over a floundering and possibly dead in the water share that EKA was,, it had nothing on the go and no prospects in the near term.. AUT guys have given themselves heaps of shares and options in both AUT and EKA.. and have been workin this sugarloaf deal every which way to make some mega dollars on the hosston sands.. these guys obviously know something dont they??


I still like ADI for the fact they have a longer term plan,, so besides the massive fortune at stake on the sugarloaf well,, the future is even better with new tiaiton and yemen to add value..


so if the hosston sands are real tight,, and at the bottom end of the scale then you can expect $6.50... per share... sounds beautiful doesnt it?

then you look at what they know so far,, they know porosity in sligo and austin were way above expectations,, pressures were nuts in austin chalks,, cased off,, then sligo became a problem and also cased away.. dont discount edwards,, it was tight but that doesnt mean it wont be productive elsewhere on the acerage.. we dont know have access to the 2d's so we dont know where the plays are tight..

so who is prepared to say that these guys didnt know exactly what to expect??? and who can show me that they have not already got way higher numbers than anticipated in the austin chalks?? based on couchy, we have to assume he saw the logs, and we have to assume the porosity was what he said it was,, he has never retracted from the statement,,only responses i have seen is him saying he cant speak about anything anymore..

Austin chalks have to be worth at least $1.30 above the price today.. cant wait for the announcements after the well is completed.. hey, believe it or not,, I am happy with $1.30 - $2... but hang on,, i gotta say that the hosston sands are looking good.. even if they turn out being tight,,

today ADI is worth about $2, thats my calculations on austin and sligo.. and factoring in some value for the punt on hosston.. there is new tiaton which is about to spud in the coming month or so..

remember base price for hosston sands are $6.50,, US research values it rock bottom at $12.. on 1.5 TCF

I have never seen anything like this before,, couchys saying they have researched the siesmics and calculated porosity to a very small margin of error,, and then after drilling finding they have way understimated the porosity.. so if they are right about the hosston sands then our current value of $1.30 on top of todays price, can have $6.50 to $12 added to it..

liking the sound of that??

for me i can sleep knowing i have already multiplied my investment 6 fold, just have to wait a few weeks for the final results,,,

i my opinion i still say anyone buying today is absolutely getting the best values share on the boards..




and if your in ARQ,, $6.50 to ADi is about $1 ish to ARQ

cheers

if the Couch report never appeared, given the high impact drilling they are doing right now - true company makers for all involved, I doubt they would be trading any lower than they are now - the market has completely discounted the Couch Oil report in my opinion....or ignored it.

couchy was telling his investors last October 2 TCF


that was based on what they knew about hosston and edward and sligo.. Hosston and sligo were the main players in the deal with edwards kinda being a hopeful,,and still is..

back then the Austin chalks hadnt been closely looked at.. after a well nearby had big plays in the austin chalks they then became very interested in that play and were signing up landowners and by april ADI moved to 20% and signed up for the upper plays

sounds like the Austin chalks may have some mighty big numbers there,, obviosly lots of oil and gas too.. but the oil makes me happy..

If you assume the 2 TCF target was their guess using the technology they used to second guess porosity,, then should they be right, as they have been on everything else thus far,, then $18 is the price to see the ADI shares at..

frightening isnt it?

From AUTs report today re the shallower gas shows:

At Sugarloaf, we are currently drilling our exciting exploration well to test the very large deep structure in the
Hosston formation. Based on wireline log results and a review of past wells in the area, we are confident that we
have identified a very interesting shallower cretaceous carbonate prospect for further evaluation as a project in
its own right. Results from the drilling of deeper secondary targets and the primary Hosston target will determine
future plans.

added a few ADI today to go with my EKA. bring on a trading halt : (please)

Aurora annual report released this lunctime, Chairman's letter: "based on wireline log results and a review of past wells in the area, we are confident that we have identified a very interesting shallower cretaceous carbonate prospect for further evaluation as a prospect in its own right...."

so EKA released it annual report..


confirms they had no cash on hand to pay for the production and completion of the well and thought it "prudent" to go to the market and get some cash..

so they have enough for that now!!!

so they are announcing its going that far yet the market disbelieves the secondaries were tested, wirelined and assessed as a success, and as EKA is on the thin edge if cashflow,, they needed to get the cash to stay in the game..

i still maintain the secondaries are worth a stack more than a few cents the market has factored in so far into ADI !!

Hi guys - Damn exciting stuff.

EME in UK still drifting around at low levels.

Agent M if suppose ADI could be $12 - how much do you think that could make EME worth??

My fantasy for today please.

Good luck to all the Sugarbabies!!!

In the EKA annual report also note that in the drilling diagram they have the austin chalks and sligo formations as increased potential shallow targets. I thought the others said that sligo was just methane? EKA are putting sligo and austin chalks in the same basket....

hey tarzan...

things are pretty much the same here.. floating up and down..

wouldnt want to be the one selling stock today if say tomorrow they announce gas shows..

whats great is that all three have confirmed the secondaries in their annual reports,, EKA had to raise capital to make sugarloaf a production well..

Oh.. did the market understand it??? NO!!!

currently anyone buying it doing real well.. if i had another cent spare i would be buying more..

I know EME is doing bad,, its had so many dissappointments the investors are savaging it.. i thought i saw a post a few weeks back where a broker had spoken to director of EME for an hour or so.. saying they expected EME prices to go four pounds if hosston strikes.. sounds about right for the 4% diluted stake they have.. i have not come accross any reports from anyone re EME share price prospects over sugarloaf.

Hope they get to announce any good news first in the UK,, you guys need a break!!

Cheers