ADI - Adelphi Energy

[nioka]

I have followed Agentm and ADI for months now and have never doubted the genuine and positive slant on ADI, Sugarloaf in particular. He has maintained all along that it was a proposition on the secondary alone. He deserves congratulations for maintaining the faith. I have been in from the start but have traded ADI for AUT and back and forth depending on their relative value and now hold a 2 to 1 ratio in favour of AUT. (my earlier posts will confirm this)
Considered selling down today but the posts today say hold on a little while yet.
Aussie Stock Forums proves it's worth again.

 

[Agentm]

eme must have carefully considered its position before breaking rank and running solo, its reasonings are entirely up to their md's to justify, i would say the australian jvp's are possibly justifiably upset to have this done to them, and in my view its still possible that some holders could be selling today and in the future and have no idea about the eme announcements, the eme announcement says wells are planned across both leases,

i can understand why adi and the jvp's are showing in their own way that they are not supporting eme on this and turning their backs to eme today, and by doing so are also not bringing clarity to the fantastic news..

in my view, all jvp's should have had equal benifit from an announcement like that that really does concern the whole scope of the play and its future development..

i guess you always hope that the jvp's would act in accordance with the interests of all concerned, but you have to understand when you do something like this the industry notices.. i am sure arq would be equally upset as would aut and eka.. no director would have expected this, its just very unfortunate.. i cant imagine what its going to be like in joint meetings and having the confidence in the planning when the integrity of the jvp's is being treated this way, you would have to watch what you say and who you say it to....

you know yogi may have been right, this may be the negative news he talked about??

adi will act with professionalism and obviously not outwardly show any disharmony, its not good form to do so. as difficult as eme has made it, i believe alex will deal with this and in the future they will have to be casting a careful eye at eme on all levels and at all times, as i say, its unfortunate..

but that aside, i feel the news was amazing, its not supported by the jvp's here and the silence is a sure sign things that this was very unwelcome..

the next announcement from adi i still feel will be NT.. then perhaps further news on SL, but with this sort of news out the speculation on the share is now entirely possible, so we may see a different dynamic on the share for a while until the results start to flow in..

all IMHO and dyor

 

[Broadside]

if the other JVP's do feel shafted is it because EME has increased its exposure at their expense? the detail is what confuses me, looking closely it is all shades of grey, backing away the big picture is very clear that Sugarloaf will be a stunning success, which is the most important thing.

I would love to see a clarifying announcement from the Aussie partners as to where we all now stand.

Have a good weekend AgentM and everyone else and thanks for all your work thus far.

 

[Agentm]

i dont think anyone would feel shafted by what eme did, we cant assume they have spite on that level. thats more childish than anything,, i think it decays trust and relationships, which usually are important factors in successful outcomes..

its just not done this way i feel..

as i say, good on them for achieving what they did, but the bigger picture is also important..

lets see what transpires..

 

[Ken]

Anyone buying into EME?

Aussie dollar is pretty good isnt it...

Not the worst idea.

Anyone looked at EME as an investment?

 

[fflintoff]

if the other JVP's do feel shafted is it because EME has increased its exposure at their expense? the detail is what confuses me, looking closely it is all shades of grey, backing away the big picture is very clear that Sugarloaf will be a stunning success, which is the most important thing.

I would love to see a clarifying announcement from the Aussie partners as to where we all now stand.

Have a good weekend AgentM and everyone else and thanks for all your work thus far.

Broady,
Safiande on the EME thread has confirmation yesterdaythat the extra 12% for EME has come from TCIE ´s 41.5% so hasn ´t really shafted the JVPs. This of course is Block B where the SL appraisal well is located. There is a lower farm in for EME on Block A.

*******************************************

Safiande - 10 May'07 - 19:10 - 39116 of 39190 edit


All in Eol,
I have managed to confirm that the extra farm in has come from TCEI, as discussed earlier with agentm & which was kinda obvious following EKA ´s placing yesterday. The rest is uber sensitive.
A major will only be interested in say 100bcf absolute minimum imho

 

[surfingman]

if the other JVP's do feel shafted is it because EME has increased its exposure at their expense? the detail is what confuses me, looking closely it is all shades of grey, backing away the big picture is very clear that Sugarloaf will be a stunning success, which is the most important thing.

I would love to see a clarifying announcement from the Aussie partners as to where we all now stand.

Have a good weekend AgentM and everyone else and thanks for all your work thus far.

I have been very curious about this whole grey thing myself, what % have ADI got in block A and B future wells? thats what is worrying me at the moment.

Why would they choose not too release to market if all is great? Because of Land acquirements, yes but I still cant see the sense in not announcing from a business prospective, value for the investor is the primary business goal by the text book.

Fair enough don't announce to its tested and further info on sizes its certain, but a future potential drilling program?????

I have 99% confidence in this play its the 1% which is making me nervous....

 

[Agentm]

i'll have a crack at answering that.. and this is all imho and dyor ok!

adi have 20% diluting of B block wells..

adi has no interest or obligations on A block as far as we know todate..

A block is EME 12% TCE inc and others 38% and i assume 50% by major oil co(now these figures are guesswork except for eme)

agree entirely on second part,, great news and we all should be filled in, not all shareholders read forums and many are taking advantage i see by yesterdays activity on the buy side..

agree on your point on future drilling, as the next well about to be drilled on block A, and is actually a horizontally drilled infill well, so it will confirm the play from both sides, and will be of significant financial advantage to adi and its shareholders changing the prospective resources, i believe, into contingent resources, and the infill will possibly even allow the calculations to start working out the future P2 P3 side of things.. again this is in my opinion. this cant be done without the figures from the flow testing..

i disagree with 99% figure surfingman, you have way underestimated this lets go with something more realistic..

i am 100% certain on the entire play, and i am a convert on the couch's 2tcf proclomation in dec 06, and i also believe it is accurate still today.. and i also believe its possible it could go higher..

all imho and dyor..

 

[Lucky_Country]

WOW Just did the maths on a find of 2 tcf for the sp of ADI and I was pleasantly suprised its quite amazing too be honest.
There will always be an element of doubt in my mind until the resource estimate is proven but let me say my confidence is at an all time high and if it pans out we will be rewarded.
With the figures being banded about you can see why they are playing there close too there chests and would not be happy with EME breaking there silence on the plans especially with deals still being done

 

[Agentm]

you can see whats happening,, i have no certanty of whats there, i can only go by couch.. he is a partner in block b, and why shouldnt i believe him, he has been right all along hasnt he???? amd yes, i want someone to seriously answer if couch oil is right or not in their view, as i feel he has never put a foot wrong.

so 800bcf is $4 to the share price.. if we have 1.5 tcf then we are in the $8 area..

speculation for sure....

so even if we are 500 bcf we are still $3 area... and the shareholders who dont read forums were, and still will be selling having no clue..

IMHO i believe with what EME announced, it has changed things, with a major oil comapany sharing in this massive play, you have to assume the 500bcf target is completely plausable.. again IMHO i feel the shares on all jvp's are absolutely brilliant value as a speculative share, and thats what adi, and the australian JVP's absolutely and specifically never wanted on their shares..

lets see how this one plays out.. all i know is today i will not sell , and i wont be selling for 12 months or more, i want to see if the majoe oil comapany wants to buy out adi's share..

all speculation IMHO.. and speculate on YOR

 

[Lucky_Country]

800bcf of gas >$4.50 per share plus any condensate on top of that.
2TCF of gas plus as couchy said they need 100 wells just for the oil.
The mind is working overtime at the momment plus NT just think we are on a winner here.
I got my suspicions on the oil major involved and boy they are big and would swallow ADI with the blink of an eye and if they want ADI they will get them

 

[chance fate]

... yeah... if you do the maths, 80km² * 30m depth * 5%porosity convert to surface volume = approx 1.5Tcf... even at half that size I'll be quite happy... only risk seems to be a tech one on frac success... but compared to the pre-drill situation the risk return equation does look to be improving.... only got limited experience of the run up in sp pre-testing and that was EKA on the turkish oil.. but using that for comparison could it be expected that there'd be quite some movement on this one... ?? the difficult question is going to be whether to accept the test risk and wait for the results... there are bound to be those that do not want to take the risk and will be content with a fraction of the potential... and there will be those that do want to take the risk, don't currently hold, and will buy in just prior to the results...

 

[Ken]

Gday,

ARQ energy is going to have the inside running on ADI.

if it is going to be as big as we think, a rise in ARQ's stake in ADI will happen surely.

ARQ and ADI would be talking no doubt in my opinion as ARQ is a major shareholder 30%.

So if anyone is primed to gobble up ADI wouldn't ARQ just increase its stake?

 

[surfingman]

Gday,
So if anyone is primed to gobble up ADI wouldn't ARQ just increase its stake?

That would be determined by the price of the takeover bid, it couldn't be done on easily the shares are closely held at this stage and if the potential is revealed to be as expected a premium price would have to be paid.

ADI shares outstanding = 104,958,662
Top 20 share holders = 62,025,351

 

[Agentm]

the major shareholders in adi are not inclined to be in for a takeover unless the price is right, and there has been talk before of this, but i wouldnt think its on the agenda currently, arq has some runs to make in canning first, and 30% of adi in sl will be nice for them, $1 to their sp easy..

and they have to contend with me blocking it

but in all seriousness, NT news has to break any minute, thats going to be brilliant,, then SL speculators will perhaps continue to push the price pre test results..

exciting days to come.. and we dont yet know what mr couch's oil is worth to the sp.. all imho and dyor

 

[Lucky_Country]

I think ARQ are quite hapy with their stake in ADI could even see ADI buying into the canning basin drilling program when NT and SL are announced successfull.
Dont think the Americans would like a small Aussie company having a 20% stake in one of their big gas fields in the US thats where the takeover or even SL buyout may come from but it could be some time off yet if ever that is.
When the revenues start coming in from NT and SL what will they do with the cash they already have an aggressive exploration program dividends buyback even more aggressive exploration? Surely they will well and truly cover their development costs with ease.

 

[jballs]

Interesting thread re. ADI, its future sp. and the prospects of a takeover. But what about EKA? Fewer shares, smaller stake in SL and no other prospective interests at the moment.
Going on the recent placement , they intend to hang in there; with the prospect of getting about $8 million next March from options conversion, they should be well-placed, provided SL results are satisfactory.
But could the bigger partners in SL, such as ADI, make life difficult for a minnow like EKA with its current market cap. of only $11million?

 

[drasicjazz]

i m planning to get into this one but
there is one other one EKA...
so my question is do i buy EKA and ADI
or just ADI or just EKA
does anyone has a bit of advice on this ridle

 

[Agentm]

i cant advise you,, its not my role to, this forum is more on the discussion side of things, i dont feel qualified to be able to advise.. thats the way i see it..

i wouldnt waiver for a second from adi,, its very obvious i am extremely adi biased, and i dont have the same views of eka/aut management regardless of their credentials.. but there are plenty who are backing their share out there,,

i know investors whom are eagerly buying all the aussie jvp's currently,, and i dont think twice about it nor say anything except good luck..

just add up 2tcf on all the jvp's ad then add a whole stack more for the oil.. then take your pick!!!!

 

[drasicjazz]

hmmmm
i could expect an aswer like this
i know nobody can give me an anwser that rules out one or the other
but i still had to give it a shot
i m a young trader and i m on a plan to buy one stock each week
so the option for this week is wds, adi and eka
three nice picks to me but i can't makeup my mind...

always trouble with the young one hey
thanks anyway
and for all the forumlovers- writhers out there
thanks for this fantasic forum!