ADI - Adelphi Energy
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nioka, agentm, I think you are getting ahead of yourselves slightly.
Whilst there may be flows after perforation I do not think this announcement implies that. They are always going to frac, even if they don't get flows after perforation. And todays announcement said they are in the process of perforating.... Also last week they announced the no flow after perforating, so I would expect them to again notify whether there is flows after perforating the upper section (unless they won't as they are spooked by the reaction last week, and the general jitters of the market now).
However as you have mentioned before if they do get flows prior to fraccing this is great news, so they should announce !!
Whilst there may be flows after perforation I do not think this announcement implies that. They are always going to frac, even if they don't get flows after perforation. And todays announcement said they are in the process of perforating.... Also last week they announced the no flow after perforating, so I would expect them to again notify whether there is flows after perforating the upper section (unless they won't as they are spooked by the reaction last week, and the general jitters of the market now).
However as you have mentioned before if they do get flows prior to fraccing this is great news, so they should announce !!
Fair point rb.resourceboom said:nioka, agentm, I think you are getting ahead of yourselves slightly.
Whilst there may be flows after perforation I do not think this announcement implies that. They are always going to frac, even if they don't get flows after perforation. And todays announcement said they are in the process of perforating.... Also last week they announced the no flow after perforating, so I would expect them to again notify whether there is flows after perforating the upper section (unless they won't as they are spooked by the reaction last week, and the general jitters of the market now).
However as you have mentioned before if they do get flows prior to fraccing this is great news, so they should announce !!
A gas show after perforation i would have thought should have been announced?
Not prepared to read into this to much though.
Still up to my nuts in eka and not particularly happy about todays proceedings although the volume was insignificant and it doesnt take much to move a low vol stock.
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Hello again, been awhile but Ive been following ASF keenly as Im still loaded to the eyeballs with ADI from float to now and hence SF is a subject dear to my heart.
Im sitting in my office in London (about 400 m from Big Ben ha ha) discussing fraccing with the Karachaganak Completions Team Leader. So what useful insight can he provide?
1. First of all with fraccing there are no guarantees!
2. SF is an exploration well and hence special considerations apply
3. To design a frac job you need to understand the reservoir - this data would come from the logs and by drawing down the reservoir when the rig was onsite - the annoucement did mention "commercial flows" so it is possible sub-commerical flows did occur and combined with the log results they were able to design a frac job with a probability of success.
4. No-one is going to give you 2 million USD to spend on a job that is just guesswork so the team must have got enough data to plan their frac job adequately. This is therefore not just a sterillisation exercise or punt taken because of the potentially large reserves.
The CL also noted that he would not mobilise the equipment to site without perforating first-hand and possibly pumping some acid downhole to clear the drilling mud away and attempt to get the formation to flow. So not sure why they waited to perforate -- did sub-commercial flows already occur? I cant recall any from the announcements.
I dont believe the JV would waste their money at this stage of the program for anything other than a good chance of success. For this reason Im holding. Whether you choose to hold now or not depends on the risk tolerance of each trader because "with fraccing there are no guarantees".
The secrecy and lack of information is quite disturbing but all in good time.
Regards,
The Snorkler
Im sitting in my office in London (about 400 m from Big Ben ha ha) discussing fraccing with the Karachaganak Completions Team Leader. So what useful insight can he provide?
1. First of all with fraccing there are no guarantees!
2. SF is an exploration well and hence special considerations apply
3. To design a frac job you need to understand the reservoir - this data would come from the logs and by drawing down the reservoir when the rig was onsite - the annoucement did mention "commercial flows" so it is possible sub-commerical flows did occur and combined with the log results they were able to design a frac job with a probability of success.
4. No-one is going to give you 2 million USD to spend on a job that is just guesswork so the team must have got enough data to plan their frac job adequately. This is therefore not just a sterillisation exercise or punt taken because of the potentially large reserves.
The CL also noted that he would not mobilise the equipment to site without perforating first-hand and possibly pumping some acid downhole to clear the drilling mud away and attempt to get the formation to flow. So not sure why they waited to perforate -- did sub-commercial flows already occur? I cant recall any from the announcements.
I dont believe the JV would waste their money at this stage of the program for anything other than a good chance of success. For this reason Im holding. Whether you choose to hold now or not depends on the risk tolerance of each trader because "with fraccing there are no guarantees".
The secrecy and lack of information is quite disturbing but all in good time.
Regards,
The Snorkler
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In fact the more I talk to this guy the less confident I become. He has seen plenty of examples of no flow before frac - spend money - no flow after frac
But - cant... quit... now...
must... see.... through.....
But - cant... quit... now...
must... see.... through.....
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The Snorkler said:In fact the more I talk to this guy the less confident I become. He has seen plenty of examples of no flow before frac - spend money - no flow after frac
But - cant... quit... now...
must... see.... through.....
If they had "flow" while drilling, one would only assume they could get flow after perforating the casing, right?? Isn't that one reason why they case the hole, to seal it?
I'm so sick of the spotlight being focused on the primary target, while the value of the secondaries are deliberately overlooked and played down. Then any negative sentiment towards the primary sends the sp plummeting, when it is already worth a bundle on the secondaries alone. As far as I'm concerned the real commercial potential is in the secondaries and the primary could potentially be the icing on the cake. As a big ADI investor i'm not happy about this..
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hey snorkler..
the Karachaganak Completions Team Leader is basically spot on
with any fracing you have to have flow.. and they reported only what they absolutely could get away with.. the well should have been a closed well. any reported flows were only the ones deemed commercial.
I agree entirely that they would not waste 2 mill or more on a useless enterprise of fracing, i dont think any high quality crew would be keen on fracing a well with nothing down there. We know how many meters they declared were poentially productive, indispersed are many meters of flows with lesser qualities (ie the lower hosston)
for me the reasoning to perforate pre the frac teams arrival was to assess the flow, i gather if the perforating didnt yield sufficient flow to warrant the high expense of fracing then they would have pulled the plug on the upper hosston and perforated the sligo and then the chalks and done so until they were ready for a fracing exercise.
they are announcing things at SL as before, minimalist.. and if they say they have perforated, then the announcement means something, despite its seemingly insignificant appearance, i note that perforating has been done for an objective, the objective obviously brought the results they needed for a fracing program, so they bring in the team.. now you can theorise whether they have or have not got sufficient flow, but no one will know.. for me they must have the flow, porosity, permiability and have sufficient confidence to warrant a good shot at achieving sufficient ongoing commercial flow after fracing..
the TCO team would simply move on to other known commercial regions on the secondaries the moment things were not up to scratch in the hosston.. they dont waste time and money on wells, its either up to scratch or it isnt for fracing.. or move on and get the job done..
the announcement is a positive sign of the hosston still being a genuine commercial prospect.. and each day they continue is more reason to be more positive..
i still remain bullish on the primary
this is all IMHO..
the Karachaganak Completions Team Leader is basically spot on
with any fracing you have to have flow.. and they reported only what they absolutely could get away with.. the well should have been a closed well. any reported flows were only the ones deemed commercial.
I agree entirely that they would not waste 2 mill or more on a useless enterprise of fracing, i dont think any high quality crew would be keen on fracing a well with nothing down there. We know how many meters they declared were poentially productive, indispersed are many meters of flows with lesser qualities (ie the lower hosston)
for me the reasoning to perforate pre the frac teams arrival was to assess the flow, i gather if the perforating didnt yield sufficient flow to warrant the high expense of fracing then they would have pulled the plug on the upper hosston and perforated the sligo and then the chalks and done so until they were ready for a fracing exercise.
they are announcing things at SL as before, minimalist.. and if they say they have perforated, then the announcement means something, despite its seemingly insignificant appearance, i note that perforating has been done for an objective, the objective obviously brought the results they needed for a fracing program, so they bring in the team.. now you can theorise whether they have or have not got sufficient flow, but no one will know.. for me they must have the flow, porosity, permiability and have sufficient confidence to warrant a good shot at achieving sufficient ongoing commercial flow after fracing..
the TCO team would simply move on to other known commercial regions on the secondaries the moment things were not up to scratch in the hosston.. they dont waste time and money on wells, its either up to scratch or it isnt for fracing.. or move on and get the job done..
the announcement is a positive sign of the hosston still being a genuine commercial prospect.. and each day they continue is more reason to be more positive..
i still remain bullish on the primary
this is all IMHO..
ADI ´s E mail to Stereo last year during drilling appears to substantiate the foregoing :-
Today 01:25 PM
stereo21
I sent an email off to Adelphi asking if further gas shows have been encountered from press release on Nov 10 to press release today. I just recevied the following reply from Adelphi's exec chairman:
"We only report gas shows that are of a material nature. This however does not mean that the well has not encountered further gas but it would make no sense to report less significant shows unless we considered these to be potentially of a commercial nature."
Today 01:25 PM
stereo21
I sent an email off to Adelphi asking if further gas shows have been encountered from press release on Nov 10 to press release today. I just recevied the following reply from Adelphi's exec chairman:
"We only report gas shows that are of a material nature. This however does not mean that the well has not encountered further gas but it would make no sense to report less significant shows unless we considered these to be potentially of a commercial nature."
Lucky_Country
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Half decent finish too a fragile week 80c is a good firm position with a positive trend towards success at SL and / or NT.
Seems people didnt want too miss out over the weekend hopefully wont be long before we hear some positive new 2 weeks max
Seems people didnt want too miss out over the weekend hopefully wont be long before we hear some positive new 2 weeks max
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every friday we say the same thing.. they never seem to reach the bottom.. i find it strange that they keep casing in.. you dont do that for nothing.. and its against the flow of info i thought i understood on the well..
this 2 weeks to TD is really becoming 2 months!!
this 2 weeks to TD is really becoming 2 months!!
Agentm said:
They must be condident to keep casing, the gas flows better
I'm with you Agentm...seems to be taking forever but they must be well into the 14000ft by now...come on gas flows. Hopefully something this week on NT, I've given up expecting anything on SL, just waiting....waiting.
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..... looking further ahead, ADI should be really
on the boil in December 2007.
More later.
happy days
yogi
This is from yogi-in-oz, posted:10/12/06.
What with the speed SL and Nt are moving at, Yogi may be on the money here fellas........................haha
on the boil in December 2007.
More later.
happy days
yogi
This is from yogi-in-oz, posted:10/12/06.
What with the speed SL and Nt are moving at, Yogi may be on the money here fellas........................haha
Lucky_Country
Formerly known as ijh
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Holding up pretty well considering the overall market.
No-one wants too really part with there shares with news hopefully around the corner for both NT and SL.
Patience is being tested and therefore lack of sellers is a positive sign
No-one wants too really part with there shares with news hopefully around the corner for both NT and SL.
Patience is being tested and therefore lack of sellers is a positive sign
Lack of sellers is a definite sign. It is a sign that we have faith. If the test result is not good that faith will evaporate and the results will be an instant disaster. However they are only testing the deeps and the secondaries do justify the price so if there is a dramatic fall I will be a buyer not a seller.Lucky_Country said:
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14375 shares traded so no ones leaving in a hurry..
i think the sp can bounce back as quick as anything.
i will be saying this all week,, we must be close on NT surely?
for most companies on the asx their position is known, but explorers have the advantage of gaining value in considerably small spaces of time.. i know the small cap index will be routed in the coming days, but for ADI i hope they can get some runs on the board and announce some good news.. i wonder how popular a small cap will be in todays doom and gloom, particularily if one came through with a major announcement? if one company bucks the trend will the market go for that stock more than any other? if it happened today it would stand out like a beacon on the boards wouldnt it...
the 100k didnt get bought up.. so money is obviously not around much..
i guess we get the old market turnaround tomorrow and next we will wonder what it was all about..
i think the sp can bounce back as quick as anything.
i will be saying this all week,, we must be close on NT surely?
for most companies on the asx their position is known, but explorers have the advantage of gaining value in considerably small spaces of time.. i know the small cap index will be routed in the coming days, but for ADI i hope they can get some runs on the board and announce some good news.. i wonder how popular a small cap will be in todays doom and gloom, particularily if one came through with a major announcement? if one company bucks the trend will the market go for that stock more than any other? if it happened today it would stand out like a beacon on the boards wouldnt it...
the 100k didnt get bought up.. so money is obviously not around much..
i guess we get the old market turnaround tomorrow and next we will wonder what it was all about..
Agentm said:
Has to be close!! Bad news in the current environment could be a killer...good news though might see it rally real quick.
Agentm said:
Reckon there is a bit of money around...punters are just scarred after selling off and waiting for the bottom...some good news on a specie like this could really kick it sp as people chase the bright (green) light.
Fingers crossed for good news
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Mmm, news coming soon.
1) NT should get news in weekly update.
2) SL primary fraccing starting.
I wonder how many cents are currently in the sp for NT, as other partners still seem to offer more SL upside.
1) NT should get news in weekly update.
2) SL primary fraccing starting.
I wonder how many cents are currently in the sp for NT, as other partners still seem to offer more SL upside.
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all previous weekly reports have been issued at 10 am. i wonder if todays will follow suit..
the 100k sell order is getting closer to being absorbed..
its been a quiet week.. it will be interesting to see how the NT well is getting on..
the 100k sell order is getting closer to being absorbed..
its been a quiet week.. it will be interesting to see how the NT well is getting on..
From AZZ announcement. just released.
Project: New Taiton
Prospect: New Taiton
Well: Ilse-1
Wharton County, Texas, S. Lavon Evans, Jr., Operating Company, Inc. Operator, Antares 25%
As at 6th March 2007 the Ilse -1 well was drilling ahead at a depth of 15,652 feet (4,816
metres) in a 6.5” hole inch hole.
During the week, elevated gas readings were encountered over a 70 feet interval at a depth
which broadly coincides with the upper of the two primary targets. The significance of these
elevated readings will not be known until wireline logs have been run and potentially production
tested.
Total planned depth for the well is 17,300 feet (5,274 metres
Project: New Taiton
Prospect: New Taiton
Well: Ilse-1
Wharton County, Texas, S. Lavon Evans, Jr., Operating Company, Inc. Operator, Antares 25%
As at 6th March 2007 the Ilse -1 well was drilling ahead at a depth of 15,652 feet (4,816
metres) in a 6.5” hole inch hole.
During the week, elevated gas readings were encountered over a 70 feet interval at a depth
which broadly coincides with the upper of the two primary targets. The significance of these
elevated readings will not be known until wireline logs have been run and potentially production
tested.
Total planned depth for the well is 17,300 feet (5,274 metres
