ADI - Adelphi Energy

resourceboom said:

I would hazard a guess that the wait until fraccing starts (early march) could be more of a reason now as to why the price is down, rather then a loss of confidence in the primaries? ...just a thought!

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really, nothing is any different than 1 or 2 weeks ago. Talk about the worlds longest wait! :

I'm shi*ty that I didn't have any funds to top up while it was down

if they didnt announce then the market would be wondering in a few weeks whats happening when nothing had happened. so they had to announce basically nothing just to give the understanding of where they were, the real problem is that the wording appears negative when it could very well not be the case.

they have perforated the lower hosston and found the zones of interest were not worthy of immediate fracing,

they are now going to do an intense freacing and flow testing on the upper, so nothing happens until the equipment arrives and the crew is set, it takes a week or so, and then they frac the upper and flow test, and following on from that and should it be nessesary, they will frac the lower.. so really you cant say that the news on the lower is anything to be too concerned about.

costs for fracing at these depths are massive, the equipment will be on site very very shortly and fracing commencing immediately thereafter.

decisions made on fracing a well change as conditions arise.. there is no set course in any program really, just as with drilling there are so many variables the program will constantly change each moment to adapt and react to the circumstances below.

NT should have completed the cementing of the liner by now i would have thought, and hopefully will be nearing the drilling of the primaries and i fully expect news on that front in the near term, possibly before any further news on SL comes through.

The way I read it, we will probably get an announcement before early March. The Frac is currently scheduled for early March but the perforation will happen between now and then. If they perforate and get gas flows, they will tell us. However, if they perforate and get no flow, they will tell us. No flow after perforation does not tell us much becasue tight sands have to be fraced. Flow after perforation means large flow after frac.

kevro said:

Found this intersting link to Couch Oil & Gas explaining the entire process from who to go of drilling a deep well. Interesting read for newbies like myself.

http://www.couchoil.com/Oultine of Drilling Process.doc

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Hope you dont mind me relisting this link Kevro, but I find point 25 of this link very interesting, and wonder if the JVP's will now consider multiple completions, from this one well, that way they will be able to process gas from all the shallower zones aswell. On top of this ADI are still wanting to drill thier 2 extra well on the shallower zones mid year too.

i agree with your thoughts sniffer..

its all about to unravel in the coming weeks and there is a definate chance of early reports. I suspect the wednesday report remains the place for it.. whether they have flow or not after perforation is irrelevant to the possible result. it goes without saying the well had to be fraced, practically all wells regardless and everything this deep is fraced.. good signs is as you say, flow after perforating. we did have flow in the lower, make no mistake, and no eqipment was on site for fracing, so we know fracing the lower was not a primary objective..

i understand from last wednesdays update the NT well must be close now to the primaries.. I wonder if we get that news again on the midweekly or maybe they will report earlier.. seems to me mostly that due to the very sensitive way business is done in texas, we are on the drip feed on news, and anyhting given is so minimalist it will be difficult to determine with accuracy what the report is actually saying.. on anything texas with adi i find the best info comes from getting a clearer interpretation by speaking to the directors directly..

another long week with scant news is my pick.. but as usual hoping for more.. i still believe i have got one hell of a secondary with SL, and would love to see more than just the current secondary in NT with the wish now for the primaries to be giving strong shows..

SL primary for me currently is a strong chance still..

It would seem after last weeks announcement that the SP has become a little volatile. A breath of positive news to boost confidence would be nice. I would have also thought that NT news would be released a little more liberally being a different project and JVP.

Something I have been thinking about recently is if the primary turns out to be less than hoped for, the the SP will take a dive then rebound due to the value of the secondaries. Similar sort of SP action observed last week - but a good chance to top up. Ideal world of course will be great news on primary followed by secondaries

I actually have a good feeling about the primaries

Antares presentation at Oil Barrel on 22 Feb

"It may have been a dreary day in February but delegates at oilbarrel.com’s 11th conference had reason to be thankful they were in the city of London rather than New York this week. Just off the plane from The Big Apple, James Cruickshank, executive director of ASX-listed Antares Energy, remained in coat and scarf for his upbeat presentation and sales pitch as he sought to defrost from temperatures of minus 20 degrees.

But, being an oil man through and through, Cruickshank was delighted to report on these wintry extremes, which promise to lift gas prices in the Lower 48. These are, of course, of keen interest to Antares, which has hitched its fortunes to the US gas market.

The oil junior is now two years into a three-year strategy to grow into a A$500 million market cap company by the end of this year. Speaking at an oilbarrel.com conference in September 2006, Cruickshank said the Antares management would deliver on this promise or die trying, with suicide notes all round. oilbarrel.com regulars are keen listeners and, during the Q&A session at the end of his well-received presentation, Cruickshank was asked whether he was making plans for New Year: the Antares man said he didn’t believe suicide notes would be necessary because “it would be extremely difficult for this company to fail”.


His confidence appears well justified given the results from the four high impact wells that are Antares’ opening gambit in South Texas. It’s not all been plain sailing: the Lonesome Dove-1 well on the Shaeffer Ranch property appears to have missed the target and has been suspended while the company considers its next move. But the first well, Harrison-1 on the Oyster Creek project, is a discovery with a second well, Scott-2, now drilling ahead: first production is expected in the June quarter.

More importantly, however, for Antares’ strategy - and Cruickshank’s health - are the results coming out of the Little Bear property, where the Garcitas Ranch-1 well encountered significant gas sands in the upper and lower targets, exceeding pre-drill expectations. In fact, as Cruickshank told delegates on Thursday, the Middle Wilcox sands alone exceeded the company’s expectations for the whole well.

The joint venture partners here (Antares has 23.5 per cent) now want to get after this potential as quickly as possible and plan a 10 well programme for the field: this is the reason for Cruickshank’s sale pitch as Antares goes on the fundraising trail backed by the promise of strong cash flows from Garcitas Ranch. In the meantime the company has put its producing properties in Oklahoma on the market: 69 people have requested access to the data room and Cruickshank expects to finalise a US$5-10 million deal by mid-year.

To view Antares' presentation click here.


http://www.ob-data.com/conference/feb07/antares.pdf

i have been waiting and waiting for news on the secondaries.. as i always said, i invested in ADI for the chance of a secondary..

Now i know that SL has a great find, ARQ talks it up as much as they can, and currently the JVP's say ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.. and i wonder why..

I have seen presentations by the JVP's and for a while they even ranted about the chalks being a seperate operation..

i guess I am getting tired of having an investment in a gas find that is not being declared to the market!! the current sp is way off the true value of the secondary alone.. and we are all aware that the primary is being fraced and flow tested next week..

interest has wained off, and i guess i should remark that i am becoming tired of the fact that normally in the oil business you scream and shout when you make a major find.. yet we dont hear a squeak on the secondarys at all..

I guess when you figure out why, you get a little impatient, and i dont enjoy seeing the sp diving when its not even close to what it potentialy is worth just on the secondaries alone.. ADI gave projections of 2 shallow wells in last years annual report, then nothing further, its not a case that they were not planning for it, its clearly on the table, so other factors now that are stopping any news for breaking and preventing the forward planning of the shallows..

brokers give the shallows .56 to the sp, based on projetced figures,and all reports and presentations by adi and arq give their initial projections of the shallows as vastly understated..

patience is required, i feel that is self explanitory, but so is fair play to long term investors.. for me i want the secondaries to be declared, and the sooner the better..

Agentm said:

i have been waiting and waiting for news on the secondaries.. as i always said, i invested in ADI for the chance of a secondary..

Now i know that SL has a great find, ARQ talks it up as much as they can, and currently the JVP's say ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.. and i wonder why..

I have seen presentations by the JVP's and for a while they even ranted about the chalks being a seperate operation..

i guess I am getting tired of having an investment in a gas find that is not being declared to the market!! the current sp is way off the true value of the secondary alone.. and we are all aware that the primary is being fraced and flow tested next week..

interest has wained off, and i guess i should remark that i am becoming tired of the fact that normally in the oil business you scream and shout when you make a major find.. yet we dont hear a squeak on the secondarys at all..

I guess when you figure out why, you get a little impatient, and i dont enjoy seeing the sp diving when its not even close to what it potentialy is worth just on the secondaries alone.. ADI gave projections of 2 shallow wells in last years annual report, then nothing further, its not a case that they were not planning for it, its clearly on the table, so other factors now that are stopping any news for breaking and preventing the forward planning of the shallows..

brokers give the shallows .56 to the sp, based on projetced figures,and all reports and presentations by adi and arq give their initial projections of the shallows as vastly understated..

patience is required, i feel that is self explanitory, but so is fair play to long term investors.. for me i want the secondaries to be declared, and the sooner the better..

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You sound as though you are finally running out of patience and I can agree with you there. Both ADI and AUT are disappointing me on the lack of information but if there is nothing to report I guess we have to settle for that. Each day is a day closer and the testing results must come soon. What the results will show may or may not have the desired effect on the SP. AUT gave good reports on High Island this week and the SP fell. What a target price for ADI should be is becoming hard to calculate. My original target was $1 and as the news got better I increased to $2 which is my present target price. I will be reassessing after the next announcement.

problem is if the JVPs let their prices slide too much on no news, the target prices in the short term will also slide, even if the news is the same...if that makes any sense whatsoever?! point is they need to stay strong prior to some good news or else we will just be reclaiming lost ground

I feel tomorrows announcement may be a little more upbeat to try and compensate for the ill-worded roadkill they announced last week.

i cant say i am happy today knowing the secondary is not being made the focal point as it should be. I know the reasons why, but i cant say i agree with them at all.. for me as an investor i would have liked some return for the risk and feel any investor deserves the true potential of a discovery to be announced as well as it can be. the current cloak and dagger clandestine approach in texas is becoming tedious.

i dont relish a sp drop on the any negative sentiment on the primary and knowing the value of the secondaries is being kept very very low key.

no more fan fare of 2 wells in the shallows,, no more fan fare on the secondaries full stop..

it seems to me that this is a deliberate act, its accross all JVP's and if you understand the mentality of the texas oil business then you dont have to be a rocket scientist to gather why the secondaries are being kept under wraps..

i just like to know why adi has to tow the line when they may not stand to gain any benifit from it.. i dont blame adi for the position it is in, i understand it but absolutely dislike whats going on..

Agentm said:

it seems to me that this is a deliberate act, its accross all JVP's and if you understand the mentality of the texas oil business then you dont have to be a rocket scientist to gather why the secondaries are being kept under wraps..

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Sorry to sound like miss Hanson, but could you "please explain" thanks agentm. Sorry if its a dumb question but I dont understand the mentality of the texas oil ind.

acerage

Sugarloaf-1 Well Testing Program

[font=Arial,Arial]Selected intervals of upper Hosston sands are currently being perforated in preparation for the fraccing program which is scheduled to commence in early March.

Further ASX releases in relation to the Sugarloaf-1 testing program will be made upon any material developments and results from these tests.

[/font]

and the fun begins on the primary...

Upper hosston perforated AND BEING PREPARED FOR FRACING means that the results of perforation better than lower sands. This one should stand up against todays falls

you are spot on there nioka..

fundamentally you wouldnt frac unless there was a reason to, and flow is the only catalyst for fracing.

first step obviously is successful.. the upper is way different to the lower, which is what was previousl reported. They had nice flows on the upper and plenty of activity there, the lower had very little.

We are kept totally in dark as to what flow they have in the upper, but they have been kind enough to let on what they are up to next, if they didnt have what they needed then the fracing wouldnt be contemplated..

things are still 100% positive on SL.

Do you think it might end up being a good thing that ADI is taking a little longer than first thought to come good? What I mean is that if ADI was to explode with SL/NT while the village idiots are in panic mode and selling furiously then the return would not be as good as when the market has recovered and the punters are back buying again. Would hate to think ADI investors won't get the returns they deserve because some knucklehead has decided that the world dosen't need oil and gas anymore.

panic selling lasts for minutes,, then a rebound, lasts a few hours, then its forgotten..


whoever sold at .70 must be kicking themselves.