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ADI - Adelphi Energy

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Theyre calculating on getting at least $2 million profit plus opportunity cost.
 
my money is on for all those reasons too,,

today the elephants began to rumble a little..

for me its not possible to write off the primary, i know the JVP's are not writing them off and i hold for the $5.. I believe you will be very pleased with the adi share in the very near term..

look at it this way sandy,, you wouldnt really want your senario to pan out if your investing in adi, you would only want the best possible senario.. so even if your incorrect you will still win!!

I see a lot of money coming for the share now, which says to me the smart money is beginning to arrive..
 
Well for my money the investor update is the most positive reading I have ever seen from ADI management.
Terms like "saturated" give me great hope on the porosity of SL and for ADI too give a dollar and figure for discoverys is something I feel they would only do if feeling confident.
 
Hello good to see everyone is remaining bullish, as am I. Now for some negatives - I think the scary thing about the primary, if it is a goer is going to be the huge cost of each development well if they have to go this deep and then frac. I also imagine it will take a long time to develop because they need these special deep drilling rigs and these are likely to be in heavy demand. Once a well is constructed it will be a simple matter to hook it up to some flowline network for processing and sale. The secondaries however should be a lot simpler proposition requiring a smaller rig of which there are many in Texas so there should be some early cashflow from there.

As for New Taiton I am vary confident. The last time I saw this type of seismic data was in the Arc office and they were telling us how confident they were of the Xyris prospect. The structure looks the same as Xyris with Mondarra on the other side of the fault. And guess what they were right, a nice intersection of gas pay currently being produced from 2 wells (might have drilled another since I left).
 
"Potential pay zone of 28 metres intersected in shallow section of well. Successful testing could significantly increase reserve potential of shallow zone."

This is Austin of course. Don ´t forget that Charles had a team there at the wellhead as it flowed over that Sep weekend. Report on 22 Sep. Co-incidence ? No. Tipped off by TCEI. He mentioned 12% porosity. Where from ? Directly from TCEI as Charles is just an investor. Where else would he get this from unless he just made it up to tickle the fancy of his punters. Don ´t think so somehow.
 

hi agentm

how about you put some figures on the table as too how you came up with $5.00..????

ie: whats the shallow targets worth, whats the primary target worth.

keep in mind ADI's Net Revenue Interest approx 15%.

personally i think it's highly unlikely they'll come up with 800bcf in the Hosston Formation.

he's an example.

ADI's Net Revenue Interest approx 15%

shallow target from ADI's estimates 12mmbls & 27bcf

12mmbls X 15% NRI = 1.8mmbls

1.8mmbls X US25bbl =US$45mm =AUD$56mm

27bcf X 15% NRI =4bcf X US$2.50 = US$10mm =AUD$13mm

total AUD$69mm divvy by 110mm share = .62cents

regards
 
hello sandy..


this is entirely my own way of thinking on ADI

i think the austin chalks are definately bigger than anyone expected, and i feel the .80 is no longer in the equation..

what it ultimately gets is not known,, i currently feel double is not unreasonable.


You and i have different views on the hosston, for me i feel the 800 bcf equation is stll a possibility, so for me i am now in it for the $5 value there..

i feel there is disbelief out there on the austin chalks and the primary,, for me the austin chalks have no contest, they are the real deal.

on the primary, i think the JVP's didnt go to flow testing flogging a dead horse, they evaluated the wirelines and saw the reasons to do it and did it.

today i am 50% + on the hosston, still cant see any reason to discount it, and i feel the JVP's are very bullish on them now, and given that they have all the data in their camp, and have been spruiking forward plans for a few weeks now, my feeling is very optomistic on the sands now..

what will eventuate is not known until things are done, but for me i dont see any JVP announcing anything else other than a massive green light on the hosston sands..

all ahead full is what is i see..

this is all IMHO and you have to DYOR on this stock,, i dont see any downside anywhere on the stock at all..

in terms of history on this stock the one thing i can see today is that ADI has never been in such a strong position..
 
hi agentm

as for spending the extra $2mm testing P.T

they'll get that back in buckets from the shallow targets, so why wouldn't you go that little extra. got nothing too lose.

all going well, i suspect at least 4 shallow producing wells before the middle of 2007.

if you combine S.L & N.T price increase today, looks pretty average.

i would have expect 10cents plus just for the New Taiton spudding

regards
 
Hey sandy..

yes indeed, the austin chalks are totally seperate to the primary, with small rigs attacking the austing chalks, in my view it may be multiple rigs.. my suspicion is that the chalks may be in the far beyond the 20's and in the 100's BCF range.. far higher than the very conservative 27 bcf or the upper 50 bcf P10 calculation.. my reasoning is that they were baffled by the size of the play in depth, as well as the porosity.. my gut feeling is that its twice their wildest dream.. this is entirely speculation,, i am very bullish on the austin chalks as you well know..

the sp today is great value i agree..

I have yet to see any negative sentiment from any of the JVP on the sands. From every quarter and from other investors i hear only positive sentiment.

I think the share is on an positive climb, the fact the JVP have invested a further 2 million is no small matter. I can assure you it was not done on the basis that the austin chalks would deliver them back the costs of the flow testing.. The word i hear is exactly as i have said, the only basis for flow testing was on the extremely encouraging results from the wireline as stated in the presentation. The decision to do this was not taken lightly, and there had to be a lot of great numbers up for grabs for them to proceed..

Despite massive negativity to what is a world class well, the sands have huge acerage, and this is a monster prospect. Well costs are insignificant to the returns that will delivered on this project. this is plug and play stuff, with infistructure on the lease, pipes running smack accross the lease, electricity, and roads, flat land, an absolute dream prospect.

I think there is little doubt left out there that the share has little down side risk for quite some time.. the chalks have obvious potential and the sands are now a real contender.

We are no longer in exploration phase, this is now workover and production phase. make no mistake on what the announcements are telling you, this is the real deal from now on in..
 
hi agentm

you might think i'm being pain in the butt with some of my opposite views.

i'm not trying too be or sound argumentative. i'd rather take a conservative view until the flow rates are on the table. especially with P.T (i was hoping for at least 1,000ft, 90ft knocked the stuffing out of me)

but having said that, what i know at this point IMO ADI's worth at least $1 right now..so it's trading under the radar.

i'm sure the JVP's are jumping up and down on spot re: the shallow targets. perhaps a little cautious re: P.T

regards
 

Sandy, a few posts back you calculated 62cps now you're saying $1! C'mon man!

You have to read between the lines, remembering their reporting style... 90ft gas saturated...yeah, plus the rest! I am 100% confident the austin is heaps larger than expected and still maintain the sligo has some unreported value too. I am extremely confident on the hosston too for reasons already discussed. The best part was yesterdays presentation confirming what has been speculated for a while now....$5+ (conservative) with an indication of being definately above at least $1. This is also quite out of character for ADI considering they played it down for so long. Truth is, SL is no longer speculation but the real deal and the cat cannot be kept in the bag much longer so to speak.

Anyways, good to see people are starting to wise up on this one. My opinion is the same as Agentm's and from what I gather everything is as expected, if not better. I topped up today for the 5th time (will be eating rice this week) as I still see today as bargain prices. I also wonder who really capitalised from mr campbell???
 

hi maverick

mate do you think i'm a Johnny come lately on ADI..?????

have a look on hotcopper early in the year March or so, see who was telling people about ADI..

ummmmmmmm...i think i know a little about ADI...

i might find one for ya..

MARCH IS THAT EARLY ENOUGH..


Subject get ready for pre-drill buy
Stock Code ADI - ADELPHI ENERGY LIMITED
Posted 25/03/06 7:43:30 PM
Posted by sandybeachs - sandybeachs
IP 60.230.xxx.xxx
Hotcopper Radio ADI on BoardRoom Radio
Post #973640 - 145 reads
In Reply to msg #942465

hi guys

as you know i have NO idea about oil/gas game..

BUT

stay tuned for a pre-drill buy.........

one of ADI's prospect that really caught my attention is New Taiton Prospect..

worth noting it's on the same trend as Strike's Shefcik & Webernick prospect..

and we've seen whats happened with Strike recently..

spoke with company today, if they hit paydirt they intend drilling further wells between 3-5 producing wells.

that would give them a fantastic cashflow..

ADI have an approx NRI 20%, this give them approx 8-17bcf interest..

found it's partners website worth looking at..(TAKE A PEEK AT IT'S WEBSITE)

http://www.muelrexp.com/

the downside is as yet NO drilling date.

company expects drilling will start late 2nd quarter...

plus you can add in the biggie SUGERLOAF PROSPECT..(more than a company maker, BUT EXTREMELY HIGH RISK).

so we have plenty of time no need too rush in...but just keep an eye on the share price.

please D.Y.O.R

regards
 
hey sandy..

you dont believe in the primaries, its no big deal, then get your best return for your investment and be happy with your investment..

1.6 million shares traded today,, who ever sold today was happy with their price.. and i am happy for each one that sold and even happier for the buyers, as they are on a absolute winner imho.

look at each investment with a goal. and each has their own and each trade has a price point and reason.

Today I am on the $5+ wait. so its got some time still to go.

The share is easily worth $1 as ADI says, they are totally correct, and with hosston on to flow testing then production. with the austin chalks busting to go..

think things through. why hasnt the JVP's announced when they flow test the secondaries? there is so much you can understand by the fact that they are not announcing things. i'll give you some free thoughts, i dont need your opinion on them... think of all the things that will and wont happen based on the hosston sands being commercial.

i remain bullish on the primary as long as certain things that can and cant happen do and dont occur..

If you wait for announcements to happen, then you are already behind, the fact that certain announcements are not being made means a great deal. The fact the JVP are doing flow testing on the primary means and very very great deal.. i cant stress enough how important the announcement to test commercial flow is sandy, but its only you that disbelieves that the JVP's have no clue about the primary. i dont follow your line of thinking as i dont see anyone behaving like the primary is not commercial.

I am a long termer, so i dont exit this week nor next week nor next month.. I keep close watch on the talk, on the language and the sentiment.

remember couchy sandy, remember the elephants???

the elephants are trumpeting sandy... you have to start hearing them..

this stock is no longer an exploration stock, it is transitioning into the next phase as a producer, look at the language, look at the annual reports and understand the processes. Its now down to flow testing, numbers and getting value for the share.. forward planning.. busy days ahead..

best of luck with your adi investment.. we all want you to make some gains from it..

this is all IMHO and DYOR as ADI has a lot to offer on the upside and i cant see today any downside still..
 
hi agentm

""remember couchy sandy, remember the elephants???""

i wouldn't trust anyone i've never meet and especially over the internet..LOL

Couchie is just blowing his own trumpet, remember he has investors as well who like to hear a good story..

i'm not writing the Hosston Trend off just yet, but i'm very very cautious about it.

ohhhh..

hmmmm i've made some nice money on all of the aussie JVP's and NO doubt it will continue. know when to hold and know when to fold.

so you didn't take some money off the table when it hit a high 94cents then back to 57cents..????..LOL

regards
 
I've held some ADI shares for some time now. Getting in at the low 30s originally. I have been hot and warm (never cold) and have built up the numbers then sold some down and later bought back in. They must have been a great day trader's stock as I have made good profits from going up and down in numbers. After the last announcement I decided to increase again and after today's rise could take a good profit tomorrow.
BUT. There may be some elephants in the distance??? I don't want to miss out if there is and there will be nothing to lose by holding on now even if the elephants are minature ones. So I'm in now for the long run.
 
From the limited experience i have on drilling, the signs are positive but in no way certain. Yes they have commited another 2mill which will enable them to frac and see how the well flows. At those depths, flow through that much compaction is not going to happen so fracing is the key which still doesnt ensure it will work.

Often you frac and well to open up the fractures but as soon as you complete the jobs, the fractures compact again. I am sure these guys know what they are doing but just trying to keep the hype down that there is no guarantee that if the logs are great and they frac that it will be a success! Saying that, i am confident they will do well, now its a question of getting a rig.
 
at these depths you would need some good numbers from the texas crude oil boys to want to frac and flow test.

obviously many have their view on the well. and to call it dead. and do this without any knowledge of the wireline logs and what the perameters of the fracing decision were is not worth listening to.

My view remains the same, Austin chalks are exactly what couchy said, extremely good, and ADI has confirmed it, look back at the presentations and its all there. plenty of down rampers on the stock about today, but i dont see anyone taking them into consideration. i saw the stock esculate and increase in spite of a few very serious efforts by some to cast doubt on the successes of the sugarloaf well. All i have seen is guessing, all unfounded, and completely contrary to announcements and sentiment from the JVP's. i cant follow the unfounded and irrational arguements that the primary isnt commercial, it is falling on deaf ears, and there are plenty who are astute enough to see through this and understand the well is a serious investment proposition.

I take my hat off to the TCO boys and the JVP's efforts to keep the information correct and only announce success when it has happened.

We now have good enough numbers off the wireline to go to flow testing, and the market sees the potential and is very eager to get a piece of it.

The primary is now in the fracing/flow testing phase, and been taken extremely seriously by the JVP's. its easy to take a punt and say there is nothing there, and then later say i told you so.. but for me i dont invest on those principles, they are fools principles, if you study the announcements, regularily talk to the management, keep in touch with people who are like you and have big stakes in the company, then the quality changes and you dont worry about downrampers..

i dont think the primary is being frac'd and flow tested as others do just because they believe the secondary can afford to fund it.. thats completely irrational.. if my money was with a company that behaved that way i would remove it immediately.. i also dont believe you can abuse someone who has an opinion by saying because you have been on HC longer than someone else then you have a better opinion or ability to judge someone else, you never know, that person may well be a someone who has years of experience in the industry and may know a lot more than you..

The well is being run by very highly regarded operators, they have the experience in the region, and if you wanted anyone to operate and run the show on a well such as Sl you would have TCO in mind. If TCO says they are fracing and flow testing, its good enough for me!! Anyone here bothered to research and find out where TCO oil sit in terms of oil and gas production in texas alone??

if you want to guess and say the primary is dry, then so be it, but no one is listening to that type of hype, the announcements all say different,

Well log results from Hosston reservoir indicate
​

potentially productive gas saturated intervals totaling 27

metres in aggregate.

i say yet again, the decision to flow test is and was taken not on the flippant and unsubstantiated rumours of some downrampers, but on the basis of the wireline logs and the ability for the sands to be commercially productive, do not believe anything else that you hear from anyone, the well is seriously being looked at as being commercial in the primary, and the texas crude oil operator and the JVP's are not gambling or punting, they made their decision on sound economic and geological reasons.

if you on the stock then enjoy what it gives you, if you considering getting into it, DYOR and look hard at the announcements, dont believe someone on the basis of how long they have been on a chat site, look at what the company is announcing and planning and make you decision on that information. You dont throw an extra 2+ mill at a well unless your very certain its got a very good chance of being commercial.

i maintain this stock is on the verge of the transition stage from explorer to producer, and the money coming in for it is understanding that. I will remain completely bullish on the secondary and remain bullish on the primary as long as the JVP's are..



​
 
hi agentm

if i've seen it once i've seen it a thousand times..!!!!

if investors thought Mondays announcement/logs results were so spectacular you couldn't buy ADI below $1.00 or even perhaps under $2.00

over many years when i've seen punters think results have been so good the share price went up like a rocket. and i mean like a ROCKET..

so i ask this question to agentm & co.

so why didn't the share price rocket..????, because i think most expected a better result in the primary target and are now being a little cautious & awaiting flow rate tests.

also given ADI announced spudding of New Taiton Prospect which no doubt would have been reported in the oil sector rags probably accounted for most of the recent price rise.

if i can get $1 plus in the near future i'll be one happy camper..

regards
 
WOW, great day yesterday. Good work guys for keeping the faith. Must admit I was more sceptical on where this was going. Breaking up from the range is pretty good.
 

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I'm with you on this one Agentm. The presentation spurred a lot of interest and there are already punters lining up today. Thanks for the all the info, know a couple of other investors who have sold there grandmothers to get in on this one...hopefully happy days ahead
 
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