ADI - Adelphi Energy

sandybeachs · 27 November 2006

have some problems with Couchies comments

hi guys

i have some problems with Couchies comments re:

""The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.""

my reading of the above suggests possible oil shows over that interval.

if Couchie has this inormation, then surely ADI, AUT & EKA would also have some knowledge of this.

then why no mention by ADI, AUT & EKA. if they do have knowledge and haven't reported it, then it becomes a non-disclosure issue.

ADI, AUT & EKA have only reported gas shows..

surely Texas Crude wouldn't have said "don't release any information about possible oil descovery.

seems strange.

comments welcomed

regards

maverick11 · 27 November 2006

Re: have some problems with Couchies comments

sandybeachs said:
hi guys

i have some problems with Couchies comments re:

""The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.""

my reading of the above suggests possible oil shows over that interval.

if Couchie has this inormation, then surely ADI, AUT & EKA would also have some knowledge of this.

then why no mention by ADI, AUT & EKA. if they do have knowledge and haven't reported it, then it becomes a non-disclosure issue.

ADI, AUT & EKA have only reported gas shows..

surely Texas Crude wouldn't have said "don't release any information about possible oil descovery.

seems strange.

comments welcomed

regards

because technically the oil shows as gas...until it condensates....sneaky eh!

maverick11 · 27 November 2006

i'm expecting full depth this week provided there have been no unexpected delays

Agentm · 27 November 2006

they have wirelined the secondaries. no release of information on any reports, and dont expect that will change any time soon.

i think couchy was talking it up big time as he makes his money not from the oil or gas he finds, but more from the number of investors per well he can sign up,,

i think perhaps he was correct is saying many rigs, possibly half what he thinks, would be needed to exploit and develop the austin chalks, but there is no requirement for the partners to disclose anything further until the well is tested, ADI wants to drill twice on the chalks already.. and as with everything on this drill, i believe their announcement to go on with the chalks is extremely conservative also,,,

i believe the .30 to the sp from the commencement of the well is way below what the austin chalks are capable adding to the sp.. if you calculate what volume of oil and gas you need to pay back the well costs, then you start to see how much reserves 50 or 100 wells must have.. and the answer is no where near .30

as a long term investor i dont see any value in anyone selling until the market either gets it, or the partners commence the disclosure of information regarding the chalks.. and if the primary which has more than sufficient finds and shows to be potentially commercial, actually becomes commercial!! then the possibility of not achieving you maximum return for your investment is definately going to haunt you for a long time if the share goes $6..

for me the share price today is an absolute bargain.. all IMHO and DYOR

tarzanhey · 27 November 2006

Re: have some problems with Couchies comments

sandybeachs said:
hi guys

i have some problems with Couchies comments re:

""The Austin Chalk zone from 11,925’ to 12,200’ looks very oil productive. The log results may set us up to drill over 100 wells in offsetting lease (26,000 acres) to just produce the oil from that zone. The porosity is just about double from what is normally found NE of our well location. Some folks have successfully produced with as low as 3% porosity. We have 9 to 12% porosity.""

my reading of the above suggests possible oil shows over that interval.

if Couchie has this inormation, then surely ADI, AUT & EKA would also have some knowledge of this.

then why no mention by ADI, AUT & EKA. if they do have knowledge and haven't reported it, then it becomes a non-disclosure issue.

ADI, AUT & EKA have only reported gas shows..

surely Texas Crude wouldn't have said "don't release any information about possible oil descovery.

seems strange.

comments welcomed

regards

Sandybeaches - I was told by EME that the partners were only allowed to report to the market, the information that they were given by Texas Crude and when i then asked does that mean that what Couch had said was not true - I was told - "no I did not say that it is not true" " Couch Oil is a private company and not listed on any stock exchanges and therefore they can say whatever they like" Whereas we can only report what we have been told to release.

Make of that what you want - I think it is pretty clear.

Agentm · 27 November 2006

in ADI's quarterly and anual report they both proclaim that potentially they have 100 BCF on the austin chalks as a reserve.. thats .82 to the adi sp.. no oil has been announce officially, but couchy has made a song and dance over it..

lets say they are being conservative, and only telling a small truth on whats there, and the porosity is double (which is what couchy was saying it is) then maybe the reserve estimates is closer to or greater than 200 BCF, or 1.64 to the sp..

the primary is only days from being trested, and there are enough shows to warrant the announcements.. and the TCO boys getting results in every target they went for, i cant wait for the news on the flow rates on the primary..

with 14m in the bank,, and only .64 at the moment. thats like .15 more than what it was pre sugarloaf... ADI is certainly great value..

the secondary at a mininum should be getting the sp up around $1 and i believe its worth way more than that..

what i cant figure is how do you justify selling at todays prices if ADI believe they are sitting potentially on 100 BCF in the austin chalks alone..

DYOR on the stock before you profit take or sell out, you may be selling yourself short..

cicak_kupang · 27 November 2006

In relation to what the sp may go to, there is an interesting table on the ADI website under broker reports. The one i'm on about is on pg 6 of the 21 august 2006 hartleys broker report. they have broke it down in to SL primary sl secondary, New Taition, and Yemen, with respect to what they are expecting to find in each. some of you would already be aware of this table, but it does make interesting reading if you havent yet seen it.....

maverick11 · 27 November 2006

the presence of propane and butane are also indicative of oil

fflintoff · 27 November 2006

ARQ mentioned Hydrocarbons rather than gas only which allows for the possibility of oil as per Koochy

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX - Quarterly Report - 30 Sep 2006.pdf

“The Sugarloaf 1 well (Adelphi: 20%) currently being drilled on one of the largest un-drilled prospects onshore USA has encountered encouraging hydrocarbon shows in the shallow objective section and is expected to encounter the principal reservoir objective Hosston Sandstone section shortly. “

tarzanhey · 28 November 2006

hi guys - Got this snippet today on advfn eme thread from Safiande

"Drilling ahead at 20,819' - 6 FPH, 69 U BGG, No shows in last 24 hrs, 20% siltstone, 80% shale." Sun 07.30.
--------------------------------------------
Almost there!

Dont know about his source but have no reason to doubt it.

What about the previous 24hrs?

sandybeachs · 28 November 2006

hi guys

stab in the dark....................

i like the looks of A.C trend..

my gut feeling on the A.C trend says "probably good gas flow with oil condensate. (5-10mmcf/day & 100-250bopd)

my gut feeling also says "Couchie might have been OVER talking up A.C, i mean 100wells looks over the top).

not much between A.C & Primary Target. But you never know.

Primary Target has had some good gas shows.

the main question on Primary Target is porosity and permeability.

if the porosity and permeability is good in the primary target, perhaps between 20-30mmcf day.

so having said that my gut feeling says "A.C will be commercial with oil condensate, Sligo Formation looking average & Primary Target looks good, but jury still out"

regards

Agentm · 28 November 2006

with the volumes they have now i think they will call a trading halt!!
1000 shares traded!!

just for the record.. it wasnt me who bought them!!

my prediction is that TD will be extended.. anyone else think that way?

nioka · 28 November 2006

Agentm said:
with the volumes they have now i think they will call a trading halt!!
my prediction is that TD will be extended.. anyone else think that way?

I doubt it. I'm expecting an announcement of finishing at the depth tomorrow unless there is a "find" before then. The cost overrun is the factor which I think will make the decision for some of the partners. Looking at the company reports they think the wellis commercial so I anticipate the weekly report will say the well has reached total depth and that interesting zones will be wireline logged in anticipation of future production testing.
Does anyone have a different opinion?

stereo21 · 28 November 2006

nioka said:
I doubt it. I'm expecting an announcement of finishing at the depth tomorrow unless there is a "find" before then. The cost overrun is the factor which I think will make the decision for some of the partners. Looking at the company reports they think the wellis commercial so I anticipate the weekly report will say the well has reached total depth and that interesting zones will be wireline logged in anticipation of future production testing.
Does anyone have a different opinion?

I think your spot on Nioka. We will only find out the true value of the well once the results from the wireline logging and flow testing are completed. The ship will continue to be tight until then.

maverick11 · 28 November 2006

nioka said:
I doubt it. I'm expecting an announcement of finishing at the depth tomorrow unless there is a "find" before then. The cost overrun is the factor which I think will make the decision for some of the partners. Looking at the company reports they think the wellis commercial so I anticipate the weekly report will say the well has reached total depth and that interesting zones will be wireline logged in anticipation of future production testing.
Does anyone have a different opinion?

I suspect so too. Infact they would be at 21,000 today. They have achieved what they set out and that was to develop a commercial well. Next step will be to log and flow test and I am still very confident they will get great results. Just to let you know, they had a budget increase to approx $9.4m, which is $3.7m more than anticipated.

HOMER J · 28 November 2006

Anyone have an idea how long roughly wireline logging and flow testing would be likely to take at these depths? interesting times ahead..... still holding patiently

sandybeachs · 28 November 2006

hi guys

one more gas show (thick and juicy) in the last 1,000ft would be nice..

regards

nioka · 28 November 2006

sandybeachs said:
hi guys

one more gas show (thick and juicy) in the last 1,000ft would be nice..

regards

Dream on but I think you will have to be happy with what you have so far which according to company reports I assess as being about $1 to $1.50 a share. The $6 spoken about regularly would be nice and is still possible I believe.

Agentm · 28 November 2006

hey homer

re the wireline and testing etc.. they cant afford a rig of this size,, they will definately use a workover rig on sugarloaf.

i wonder how many weeks it will take for the next rig to come in and for this one to pack up..

pretty close to t/d any ways, so i gather we get announcements in the next few days or perhaps next week?

oil price goes up,, sp goes down..

austrader02 · 29 November 2006

Agent M,

On the mob and de-mob time....they will doing at asap! If they having any inclination of doing a well-test they will be sourcing a rig as we speak. In addition, why cant they run wireline logs with this one if they are desperate for an initial welltest. Anyways in summary, onshore rigs will generally get offsite in 3days....these guys are very efficient...as they should case 6k/hr for 75k/day rig someone needs to pay for!

Our best case would be that they do the logs, decide to complete it their and then, do a quick flow-test on a fixed...let us know they flowed 100 mmscfd and the reserves are 3 TCF! That would be gold.....jerry gold! Anyways its a dream but i hope it becomes a reality!

ADI - Adelphi Energy

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