ADI - Adelphi Energy

the english need their rest..

no reports of any type have yet to surface.. suggesting a very very tight ship now as they set sail for home.

like everyone i wouldnt be upset to see an ASX announcement at opening of trade, with follow up shows to report..

but i wonder what will be revealed this week for those in this share with ever increasing expectations..

for me i am happy to go to flow testing now.. i am real happy and very optomistic with the amount of shows so far in the primary, and going by an email i saw last week ADI are not reporting minor shows of any size or nature, so i wouldnt be blown away if there were other unreported shows which may be of interest.

Still believe that at all levels the sugarloaf well has not only delivered, but more than delivered above the normal expectations of what you would get on an average wildcat well.. 2 seperate fields, one gas oil according to some reports, and then 3 great results so far in the primay..

i fully expect that ARQ will tell the shareholders more then the market knows and totally expect to have a whole swag of great information to share after the meeting.. but in reality the conservative and low key responses so far delivered to the market is all i expect to hear echoed about ADI at the meeting!!

as they say.. loose lips sinks ships...

lets hope for a grand opening!!!

kevro said:

Freddie / Tarzan, any news from Couchie over the weekend in the UK.

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Hi - sorry Kevro no new news YET! but we are trying and then trying some more.

Will post anything found - good luck for next week - should be interesting to see what comes up from the Arq presentation Monday.

tarzanhey said:

Hi - sorry Kevro no new news YET! but we are trying and then trying some more.

Will post anything found - good luck for next week - should be interesting to see what comes up from the Arq presentation Monday.

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ARQ gave away nothing at Perth on Friday, so they are unlikely to say any more at Melborne tomorrow. 8 days to completion on a trouble free basis so the interest must be huge.
I hope they have already sourced the smaller testing rig. If not they might carry on with the Patterson #30. However they are way over budget because of the extra casing to hold back the gas pressure at Sligo. Total spend as at 12 Nov is $7,910,170 so they might wait for the cheaper rig.

I looked at ARQ's chairmans presentation, which is on the ASX as an announcement but still as yet on their website..

on the adelphi slide, it says

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also on the slide they announce aggrigate 45m of gas shows in the upper hosston, so on the lower play they say 45m and the austin is 28m.

on the upper austin and sligo they say logged but not tested, i wonder when the logs will be released? are they not market sensitive information?

its very comforting for ARQ to release that the austin chalks have good gas shows

it confirms the reasons for me to remain confident the well is a pretty successful operation so far!

I would love to get the week off to a great start with a nice little price sensative ann prior to open today. They have had 3/4 days of drilling in Hosston since last announcement.

geez, gut wrenching to watch... sellers are very scarce and volume is low so far. Looks like it will rebound.

I think ADI has been so concerned with playing this one close, that investors are becoming wary due to the lack of info being released to the market.

Its all low volume stuff really and I am sure the buyers are there, just off screen. As they have tried to keep it so low key as compared to GDN they risk the the chance of it going the other way which seems to be what we are seeing now. If the holders are not following the stock through forums like ASF they really would be in the dark as to whats going on with ADI and there down played announcements. But as you say Maverick, it is gut wrenching.

depends on whether your a buyer or a seller.

todays is a great buying opportunity, with no news out there, even couch emails have not appeared, so its closed shop all round..

its hard to believe that gas shows in all zones and targets on a world class well like this can be so unexciting to the market.

all reserves calculated were on 30 meters of shows, they have over 80 meters of shows, so its not at all like the well has not achieved aits goals..

they logged the austin chalks and couchy blurts out the porosity,, which makes the chalks reserve potential many times more than ever thought possible. and ADI has already pencilled in two wells for the sugarloaf before they reached the primary, if they are not confident, and if you dont feel that the secondaries are worth .30 cents, then i guess todays prices must be attractive to you if your selling..

for me i see the secondaries as way more than todays prices, and i hope the sellers have understood the potential of whats available in the austin chalks, and you must factor in some value on the primary surely? how can gas shows in the primary not carry any value to a share price?

once the flow testing and logs are revealed then you will start to see a better value to the SP, its obvious that no one can tell what value the share should be.

Its the average punter out there who doesnt understand the reasoning for the secrecy and the intense use of cleverly disguised reports to the market and for those that look at the SP on a daily basis and see no reports, and have no idea of the significance of the reports released todate, that punter is the type of investor that i feel sorry for as they cannot establish any meaningful value to their share, and have no idea if they should stay or should they bail..

for me i look at the ups and downs of the SP and see it as a learning experience, it dos nothing to me emotionally as the day i sell is long from here, i have no reason to believe that ADI is not doing anything else except planning two possible wells on on the secondaries and i absolutely believe that they wouldnt be doing any such thing with out the certainty that the chalks have significant value in them,,

i never invested for the primary, it was a wildcat, and the secondaries are, and always will be, the reason to continue on the adi stock.

I cant change my personal point of view on this well, as it is announced in ADI's annual report, that there is very possible and highly probable near future seperate project in the austin chalks, thats all i wanted to hear..

we have shows throughout the primary, and no fanfare and no hype, and now flow testing in the coming months will soon tell me what the prospects are on the primary.

all i see today is great buying opportunities.. DYOR

Well bugger me! I haven't heard any news... So is there any real reason for today, or is it just a domino effect due to stop losses, etc? AUT & EKA also down a fair bit.

This is the first time that i've posted on here, following agentm and maverick especially, as I have eka and adi.
Today "Tenbagger" updated their recommendation on EKA..."due to mixed results from the company’s high-risk high-reward Sugarloaf well in Texas. While gas has been discovered at the shallow Austin Chalks target which at this stage appears economic (and worth 20-40 cents per ordinary Eureka share), we do not believe the gas intersected in the primary Hosston target is commercial. There remains more to drill at Sugarloaf, but the chance of making a major find appears low ."
Also I remember reading either here or on HC that Hartleys have been advising to sell. Not totally sure on this one though.

Does the fact that Hartleys and Tenbagger are advising to reduce alter your confidence on the further share price gains.?? Or long term what has been discovered already warrant higher prices.

AgentM,appreciate your comments.
Thanks

It is a bit nail biting to see the price drop like this, but given the total info we've gathered on Sugarloaf here, I'm still confident. Even more so after some quality input recently from people who know a lot more about drilling than i ever will!! such as ex-ARC staffers Snorkler and Austrader. (see their posts a page or 2 back).
I think I'll be in at least until value is realised from this hole and New Taiton.
Dunno If I'll hold out till the Yemen drilling though. Sounds like dodgy territory as far as terrorists are concerned!!:rocketwho

if you look at their reports, and the type of investors they attract, then obviously they have some weight to their advice and people are taking it as correct and selling on the assumtions of the reports. they are only in the game for massive returns, then next week they find another stock to make your fortune on.. then another,, anyone can do that.. just throw a dart!!


I dont have their reports, I dont know what they base their ability to forsee the commercial viability of sugarloaf on. its pretty good that they can, and good on them for being able to.. but for me,, i dont follow them and dont invest on their recommendations,, i follow my own rules and stick by my plans..

I wouldnt care if a tenbagger bought or sold the share, i just hope they made some money on the journey, thats obviously what the reports are trying to make for their clients??

I see thay believe the secondaries are worth .20 to .40 to EKA,, and EKA is a smaller partner in the sugarloaf well, I would have thought that those sort of prices would be easily matched to ADI prices, if not worth a whole lot more to the ADI share.. wouldnt you? are people not underselling their share and bailing without achieving their best value here,, is this good sharetrading??

If your telling your clients to bail and speculate the primaries are not economic so be it.. its up to each and every one of us to do their own research and asses whatever from reports if thats what you want to do.

i wait for the flow tests and then i will see what they actually have.. I am not selling now, nor in a week nor in amonth.. but if the price keeps dropping i will be extremely interested in buying some more, these prices are great value if the tenbaggers are correct!!

Just because a share report that is designed to make massive gains for its client reevaluates the well and says it wont make you a 10 bagger, doesnt mean i dont believe it will be one and unless they back up what they are speculting with facts of some type, then its not worth cosidering in my view..

I say DYOR on the stock, and make sure the sell orders are not for the benifit of someone else who is buying!! it seems to me by the volumes that there is plenty around willing to buy whilst the panic run continues!!

Dukey said:

It is a bit nail biting to see the price drop like this, but given the total info we've gathered on Sugarloaf here, I'm still confident. Even more so after some quality input recently from people who know a lot more about drilling than i ever will!! such as ex-ARC staffers Snorkler and Austrader. (see their posts a page or 2 back).
I think I'll be in at least until value is realised from this hole and New Taiton.
Dunno If I'll hold out till the Yemen drilling though. Sounds like dodgy territory as far as terrorists are concerned!!:rocketwho

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it is a little unnerving watching paper profit get shredded and hearing of a couple of newsletters already writing off the primary target, I guess this happens when the SL partners are tight lipped...the void gets filled with uncertainty and doubt...I am going to hold because that was my strategy from the start and I still have faith in the secondaries, and hope for the primary. Good luck whatever your decision Sugarloafers.

fflintoff said:

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Wilson HTM 9 Nov 06.pdf

Sugarloaf production December 2007.

Latest broker report from Wilson on ARQ. Dated 9th inst but just added to their site. Interesting numbers on page 9 based on 5% interest.

:evilburn: :evilburn:

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According to ARQ estimates Sugarloaf is worth 75c share to ARQ by Dec07.?? I can't work out the panic, (apart from stop loss orders.)

Well, if it is worth 75 cents in Dec 07, it is probably trading at fair value at the moment.

Hey guys, todays selldown has been disappointing and I assume there has been a bit of a domino effect which has exagerrated it even further. Every 1c shift is worth thousands to me so it is very frustrating to watch indeed. For a broker to say hosston is non commercial is a speculative joke! The damn thing hasn't even been flow tested yet and ADI have already pointed out in their announcments that they are only reporting potentially commercial gas shows...in which they have already had 3 in the primary. The way I see it, current prices are a great buy... perhaps this was the ploy, to create a good buying opportunity?? :

The secondaries are already planned for at least a couple more wells and if hosston works out, it will just be a bonus. I sit tight

chops_a_must said:

Well, if it is worth 75 cents in Dec 07, it is probably trading at fair value at the moment.

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That reference to .75c a share was for ARQ chops. Value to ADI I don't know.

chops_a_must said:

Well, if it is worth 75 cents in Dec 07, it is probably trading at fair value at the moment.

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That is an EXTRA 75c to ARQ share price. Should be more to ADI.

nioka said:

That is an EXTRA 75c to ARQ share price. Should be more to ADI.

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Sorry, mis-read it.

If this is worth 75 cents to Arq, you'd expect it to be worth more than $2 to ADI. Why has this been taken as bad news?

Hi Chops, been a nerve racking day for holders. Bit hard to make any headway today. Everytime its starts to look better someone dumps another load of 50,000 shares. Been happening very consistently all arvo.