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ADI - Adelphi Energy

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yeah.. living on the edge..

look forward to seeing what news comes out this weekend.. my feeling is that there will more of the same.. gas shows that is!!

after looking at the details of the expectations of this well. its been 100% spot on.. texas crude has found gas in all zones they went for.. now for the next 1500' of sands


IMHO

and DYOR
 
Good to see you are still giving us the benefit of your research.
 
Good morning friends,

Still got my HOLD position. I wouldnt always trust Couchy ppl and if i am not wrong one of the posts here or on iii in UK said that there was more finds at 12am sat morning which wasnt announced by ADI. I think the fact of the matter is ADI is not ramping this stock and thats fair enough! I think the inital vertical on this stock is gone and we will need to wait now for welltest and logging for the next exciting phase and sleepless nights from me in UK. Its still a very awesome share as the secondaries will add so much value to ADI and primaries could be very good too. But as always DYOR! Have a good weekend and i will get back to work!
 
Hello, I have been reading this forum with great interest. I am a former Arc employee and a long term Adelphi Energy shareholder (all staff got an allocation in the float - no discount though!) so am quite excited about this well.

As for the significance of the shows - a positive thing is the depth and pressure of the Hosston formation. Gas is highly compressible so that smaller intervals at greater depths translates to higher volumes once it is produced to surface and depressurised to standard conditions. Thats the great thing about producing from deep gas formations. Using first principles - roughly if you double the pressure (i.e. depth) you will double or triple the volume at standard conditions. Not accounting for any overpressuring of the formation.

So Im vary encouraged and holding on until they well test and determine deliverability and reserves at which case we will be rewarded or go down in flames. I recall there is plenty of gas locked up in tight Perth Basin formations that Arc discovered and havent been able to develop yet.

Cheers!
 
Nice post there must be intense pressure @20000ft so gas shows down equate to big bucks on the surface.I'm impressed.
 
Yeah, you can assume the pore pressure is at hydrostatic which for saline water is 0.45 psi/ft so at 20,000 ft = 9000 psi. reservoirs are often overpressured as well if rapid burial has occurred.

It is just one factor in favour for this well. Also important is lateral extent as that other fellow mentioned. I think in the Strachan report they were looking for 28 m net pay x 40 km² or thereabouts in the Hosston to delineate a 800 Bcf resource.

and then theres the excitement of well testing - all hell breaks loose!
 
You must also remember that the rock strata containing the gas is also under immense pressure which is why lithology, porosity and permeability are crucial to the commerciality. Indications are looking like hosston is ok in this respect, so hopefully no need to frac And if you have been following this one, you already know the secondaries are looking awesome. Hosston should be the icing sugar. Texas crude has been backing this one for years. Have a good wkend everyone
 
-----------------------------
Broady,
They didn ´t report Show No 7 at 18450ft as it was less significant than the previous two shows possibly because of the moderate sandstone mix of 40%.
Now they seem to be right back in the sands again & which probably prompted the ann earlier. Be interesting to see the formation ratio in the logs at this depth.
 
these posts are getting better and better..

if some one at arq or adi can get the management to post here and tell us what is going on it would be so much better.. i have in mind to give alex a cryptic crossword puzzle book for a christmas gift.. these guys speak in forked tounge..

With the backround pressures so far announced, can any assumptions be made on flow rates?? are there enough indications to point at the 20 or 40 mcfd territory? or can these things only ever br predicted through flow testing?

just curious about what the numbers so far can give away..
 
To my knowledge the wireline logs will give an estimate of permeability. But real permeability will only be determined by well testing. All else is guess work.
 
Snorkler,

You are right on the money there mate and great post. By the way ppl i got an email from a mate after a long time and he said are you posting on aussie forums as you sound like this guy.... and i was like yes. I told him i am austrader02 and he said he is snorkler. We both are in UK...what a small world! Both ex-ARC.

Anyways, i agree with Agent M that this forum is gettin better and we all should pool our knowledge on this share and others if possible. In regards to Freddies email, i do agree the post by couch which suggested gas in 18000s range was not posted by ADI in their release. The question is does that mean that the partners feel it is insiginificant, dont want to hype it up until well-test or somone put a bogus couch release. I think couch email should be taken with care, espcially on weekends as someone might be trying to ramp up the share for monday trading!
 
Agent M,

The number can only be predicted through an extensive well test. The first thing most companies do after completing the well is to clean-up the well on fixed choke position. The clean-up refers the formation being damaged with drilling mud. As the well flows, it pushes this mud out and the well cleans up. This initial flow is to generally satisfy or make us investors cry about its potential.......it doesnt give the reserves estimate.

To get a reserves estimate, the perform an extended well test at various chokes. They take an initial pressure, do the well test, then shut-in the well for a period of time. The difference of the initial pressure - final shutin pressure is used with their complex reservioir calcs to see how much reserves are there.

I think at this depth compaction and permeability is a big thing! Snorkler, if they get gas shows on the surface cuttings, doesnt that mean it is permeable then and will flow?
 
The measurement of gas shows during drilling is quite crude. Probably a hairy rig pig looking at a froth of drill mud and cuttings. All it means is that there is gas present. This could mean that the gas is either locked up in the shale or in reservoir quality sandstone so you have to know what lithology is present to get a better idea.

Given that Adelphi will look after the investor interest - if they announced a gas show you would assume it has come up in the better quality rock.

A classic mistake for folk is to see a big tombstone core bubbling with oil coming off the rig floor. This is actually a bad sign because if the oil is still in the core at surface after depressurisation then it is definitely immobile and unlikely to flow.
 
-----------------------------------------------------------
Not an E Mail from Couch. Shows 5 , 6 & 7 are in the logs & are all in the 18000s ( i.e. not just the unreported show ) so you are not in tandem here by scare mongering re bogus couch releases.
The first two shows corresponded to the formal anns on 9 & 10 Nov resp.
 
The Strachan Report calculated that a 30 m net pay zone over only half the mapped target size (40km²) and 10% porosity could deliver 1.7 Tcf.
http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/corporate/documents/Strachan Research Report May 2006.pdf

From the 3 gas shows/indications so far - 9, 10 & 17 Nov - there has been total shows over a 50.5 m zone....
 
austrader and snorkler are giving some impressive posts here.

i feel the significance of the plays are important and agree adi wont report trash like whats been seen on other drills.

My fear is that the understated reports are scaring the market a little too much into submission..

ok to be conservative, but if 50 meters of net pay is nearly double what they expected and estimated, then surely thats got to be a positive signal that the success of the drill so far is far better than they had dreamed..

this is a wildcat drill in the hosston, and a free ticket on the secondaries.. the austin chalks should be given some fanfare and perhaps some better information given to the market seeing as so much is alrady known about the play. surely a good indication can be gleaned from the austin chalks so far?

I agree with flintoff re the couch senario,, everything he has said is basically fact from what i can tell..

great to see more around that are confident on the sugarloaf drill. my view remains that its been everything that you would want from a wildcat.. and i remain optimistic as ever on the well..

cheers
 
Part of the ARQ chairman's address from 17th November

"Also on the drilling front our associated company, Adelphi Energy, has had a substantial increase in share price on the back of the results from its sugarloaf well in the onshore Gulf Coast of the USA. Although is very early days, there are very encouraging signs in the well."
 
Thanks to austrader and snorkler for thier input. Having you guys explain what you have from a first hand industry experience is appreciated.
It should be interesting to see what ARQ gives away about SL on thier road trip, see what else we can de-code from thier selected words.

Austrader and snorkler, what do you guys see comming from New Taiton, any expectations there????
 
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