ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Agentm]

looking at conoco a bit closer it has become evident they are picking up the pace..

many new permits in live oak, with 2 rigs dedicated to that county.. pegging out lots of sites all over their acreages right now.. they have put the pedal to the metal..

in karnes they are running with 1 rig

in dewitt they are running with 1 rig


enduring is willing to pay $3500 and acre right now for town acreages in karnes and kenedy city.. operators are keen to drill under those two towns..

prices on these acreages are really esculating..

aut got a further 500 odd acres recently.. which imho accounts for some considerable outlays.. with a few more mop up acres to be chased down..

 

[jancha]

looking at conoco a bit closer it has become evident they are picking up the pace..

many new permits in live oak, with 2 rigs dedicated to that county.. pegging out lots of sites all over their acreages right now.. they have put the pedal to the metal..

in karnes they are running with 1 rig

in dewitt they are running with 1 rig


enduring is willing to pay $3500 and acre right now for town acreages in karnes and kenedy city.. operators are keen to drill under those two towns..

prices on these acreages are really esculating..

aut got a further 500 odd acres recently.. which imho accounts for some considerable outlays.. with a few more mop up acres to be chased down..

Agentm you state AUT have got a further 500 acres recently & a few more mop up acres to be chased down.
Can you be more specific as to the whereabouts of these acres & where you've recieved this imformation from?
I've noted that you've been a bit touchy over some of the posts in the past which have challenge your thoughts & ideas in regard to ADI & AUT so dont respond if you feel threatened in any way.
I hold both ADI & AUT.

 

[estseon]

jauncha,

AUT's June 9th presentation has reference to further acreage purchased. They don't believe in maps, though.There's just a schematic effort.

 

[Agentm]

Agentm you state AUT have got a further 500 acres recently & a few more mop up acres to be chased down.
Can you be more specific as to the whereabouts of these acres & where you've recieved this imformation from?
I've noted that you've been a bit touchy over some of the posts in the past which have challenge your thoughts & ideas in regard to ADI & AUT so dont respond if you feel threatened in any way.
I hold both ADI & AUT.

lol

touchy on aut...

what a joke.. i moved out of aut a few weeks back. moved into another stock.. made a considerable return there and exited.. the reasons for my exit. which was the immediate concern over the volatility of the markets coupled with aut massive capital shortfall which will debilitate any move forward has been such a hard deal for many to accept i have been criticised for mentioning it.. lol.. and criticised for anything positive i have said about the share to boot.. lol.. imagine the reaction if i had anything negative to say on aut!!

with respect to acreages, both what estseon said and what the locals tell me, there are acreages, some large, very large and many small still needing a home.. and i have given an undertaking not to mention them at all on the forums, but as it was mentioned in a releases and in reports i did glance a comment on it too. but if you have been following it close you will notice from time to time in the releases of adi the acreages mentioned in the ami has increased over time.. but interestingly aut does not specify its longhorn and ipanema acreage region, and as it wont map it properly, other than a reference to a broad sweeping coloured region on a map thats inaccurate, it has no desire to make it public, so i would say if i did a fair effort with my database and mapped it up, it may well make a lot of people very uncomfortable.. including the operator hilcorp. who know i can do it in a heart beat..

if you pm me i can let you know of some incredible acreages yet to be secured.. enough to make any company an extremely large fortune.. but i may charge a fee for that type of information.. $20,000 would be my fee..

 

[stefan_invester]

hi everyone

anyone got a clue or any idea of when a revised offer if any, will come from AWE.

cant wait to see what the result will be

 

[Sdajii]

hi everyone

anyone got a clue or any idea of when a revised offer if any, will come from AWE.

cant wait to see what the result will be

I'm pretty sure AWE is going to stay very quiet about any revised offer until it becomes public. If word got out that they were going to put a higher offer in, AWE knows as well as anyone that they'd have no hope at all of picking up any at 40c. We can only really speculate at this stage (unless someone wants to share some inside information), but since AWE is already a substantial holder, they probably won't want to see the price drop. Things will be interesting in about a month.

 

[stefan_invester]

yeah fair enough
the next month seems like a big
month for all the 3 JVP with ADI,
so will just have to wait and be patient

 

[estseon]

I'm pretty sure AWE is going to stay very quiet about any revised offer until it becomes public. If word got out that they were going to put a higher offer in, AWE knows as well as anyone that they'd have no hope at all of picking up any at 40c. We can only really speculate at this stage (unless someone wants to share some inside information), but since AWE is already a substantial holder, they probably won't want to see the price drop. Things will be interesting in about a month.

They haven't picked up any shares as a result of their offer and they will not pick up any shares at the current offer price. The market bid price has been consistently above 40 cents. I had to pay 41.5 and 42 cents when I topped up. AWE has got zilch.

As to capital (AUT), it has said that current requirements are moderate, so possibly in the 5 - 10% region. But planning their capital requirements at this stage must be hell. It depends upon the operator's drilling plan and lease acquisition opportunities, neither of which is under the control of the Board. All that the Board can really do is to ensure that it doesn't obstruct the momentum build-up. The ADI Board got unfairly slagged off for its recent capital raising. I hope that the AUT Board isn't given the same treatment even if it elects for a cheaper, faster route for the raising at this time, such as a placement.

It's all guesswork but Hilcorp should have completed the farm-out wells by the end of July and Kowalik revisited also. The next well on S/L (@10%) and on Ipanema (@30%) will gobble up half the cash. Cash is generally committed up front and not necessarily for just one well. So, let's hope that the market gives those guys a break. This is all about a change in momentum driven by the operator, which is clearly happy with the results achieved. It's all good news for those with a longer term view. There could be a bit of pain initially.

 

[Ramblin Round]

They haven't picked up any shares as a result of their offer and they will not pick up any shares at the current offer price.

This isn't an entirely accurate statement. Their holdings increased by 3% after the cash offer was made, and then they cut a statement bragging about it. If ADI Board was smart they would cut a letter today about how everyone is holding instead of selling. I say the ADI Board must sleep in quite often. Publicity is of key importance in a situation like this and yet and still ADI has little to no interest in it. AWE picks up shares and they immediately go bragging about it ? ADI needs to puff a bit showing how weak the offer is. Sure, we spent 55K on a 107 page independent review but let the Board share their feelings in a letter. Plus it's much cheaper.

 

[philly]

This isn't an entirely accurate statement. Their holdings increased by 3% after the cash offer was made, and then they cut a statement bragging about it. If ADI Board was smart they would cut a letter today about how everyone is holding instead of selling. I say the ADI Board must sleep in quite often. Publicity is of key importance in a situation like this and yet and still ADI has little to no interest in it. AWE picks up shares and they immediately go bragging about it ? ADI needs to puff a bit showing how weak the offer is. Sure, we spent 55K on a 107 page independent review but let the Board share their feelings in a letter. Plus it's much cheaper.

IMHO this is really dead time in so far as this AWE bid is concerned
They have picked up a few shares initially but the SP has been above the bid for most of the time. They maintain that their offer is a good one despite this and they reject the conclusions in the ADI report.
Given their current holding which prevents any other viable bid being made for ADI AWE can just wait until the current offer expires before it needs to take any further action. So I don't think the ADI BOD need do anything ATM. Hopefully the good news from Sugarloaf continues to come in the next few weeks which will truly show up the inadequacies of the AWE bid.

IMO come July AWE will up their bid otherwise its just been a bit of a distraction. [Having said that, AWE like all holders has seen the value of its investment go up. Maybe AWE wants to sell out and was simply ramping the price upwards. I'll leave this for all the conspiracy theorists out there to comment on this]

Whether AWE offers the 61 cents which the ADI report suggests is a fair price is the only live issue here. If they are fair dinkum then they will because otherwise the bid is just going to drag on too long. On my reading of the ADI report such an offer would be supported by the BOD so that would greatly assist AWE in achieving their goal.

The fact GS has purchased a 6% interest in ADI since the takeover bid suggest that GS is punting on a revised offer being made and sees some upside in the near term. IMO GS is in it for a quick 48% profit [ie buys @0.41 & sells @ 0.61]. I dismiss any suggestion that GS is aligning itself with the ADI BOD to block AWE.

As a holder I see plenty of upside in ADI & I would prefer to hold on even at 61 cents. Maybe if AWE were to offer holders an option of cash and or shares in AWE then they may achieve their goal. How about one AWE share for every 3 ADI shares.
ALL IMHO & DYOR

 

[Bigukraine]

Well know U.S. takeover firm KKR are in talks with Hillcourp and may acquire their Eagleford Shale assets for approx. U.S $400 million.... now that will spice up the action even more

 

[Agentm]

the article is this one i think bigukraine

http://sfgate.bloomberg.com/SFChronicle/Story/Print?docId=1376-L3Z1OH0D9L35-9


thsi is part of the report

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- KKR & Co., the buyout firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, may acquire about $400 million of shale assets in Texas’s Eagle Ford formation from Hilcorp Energy Co., two people familiar with the deal said.

KKR and Hilcorp, a closely held exploration and production company based in Houston, may partner to develop the south Texas formation, which has gas deposits, according to one of the people who declined to be identified because the deal is private. The purchase may be announced this week.
KKR spokeswoman Kristi Huller said she couldn’t comment. Calls to Hilcorp

 

[philly]

Agentm you refer to this article from June 13 (Bloomberg) that KKR & Co., the buyout firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, may acquire about $400 million of shale assets in Texas’s Eagle Ford formation from Hilcorp Energy Co.

Now as I see it HILCORP has acquired its interest in the Sugarloaf AMI from the farmin with ADI, AUT & EKA and an extra interest in Turnbull and Ipanema from the additional farmin with AUT. So are these collective interests in the Eagleford worth $US400m? Or does HILCORP have other interests in the Eagle Ford that KKR & Co will buy? If HILCORP sells out who will operate the future drilling program. I'm not convinced that HILCORP selling their interest is necessarily good news for the ADI holders. It could in fact delay future drilling and slow down growth.
Please Agentm tell me its not so

 

[gdaf]

Hilcorp aren't selling out, they are doing a deal with KKR to share some of the recently acquired Eagleford Shale assets for US$400m. Hilcorp have 50% of the sugar AMI post farmout, and interests in the other wells with AUT. If this deal goes through, it will completely dismantle the AWE bid IMO. The re-rating is almost upon us folks - watch this space. If KKR invest anything near $400m and that is announced this week, I urge every single ADI shareholder firstly write to AWE asking them why a private investment company is willing to pay such a price for the exact same assets they're trying to steal and low ball from us, and also to ADI board of directors asking if they have entered into any separate negotiations with KKR. Make no mistake, there is money on the table for these assets right now, and it's in every shareholder's interest to ensure the best price is paid for them.

 

[Agentm]

Agentm you refer to this article from June 13 (Bloomberg) that KKR & Co., the buyout firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, may acquire about $400 million of shale assets in Texas’s Eagle Ford formation from Hilcorp Energy Co.

Now as I see it HILCORP has acquired its interest in the Sugarloaf AMI from the farmin with ADI, AUT & EKA and an extra interest in Turnbull and Ipanema from the additional farmin with AUT. So are these collective interests in the Eagleford worth $US400m? Or does HILCORP have other interests in the Eagle Ford that KKR & Co will buy? If HILCORP sells out who will operate the future drilling program. I'm not convinced that HILCORP selling their interest is necessarily good news for the ADI holders. It could in fact delay future drilling and slow down growth.
Please Agentm tell me its not so

hilcorp have extensive acreages

what part is being farmed out by them is yet to be announced

what gdaf is stating is pretty accurate

 

[estseon]

Ramblin,

"This isn't an entirely accurate statement. Their holdings increased by 3% after the cash offer was made, and then they cut a statement bragging about it"
=========================================================

I have checked back.

The statements issued through ASX from the notification of the offer on 17 May to the AWE response to the Target Statement on 3rd June all state AWE's holding (through its sub) as 33.79%. The SP has not dipped down to or below the offer price since that date so far as I am aware. AWE cannot buy ADI shares at a price above the prevailing offer price - it is not permitted to.

Further, ADI's presentation of 30th April shows AWE's holding at 33% and, for that matter, so does its presentation of 23 January 2009, 17 months ago.

If AWE has acquired any additional % in ADI, it must have been since 3rd June 2010.

The only 'substantial holding' notice from ADI has been in relation to Goldman Sachs.


Re KKR

I see that as a big vote of confidence in Hilcorp, our operator. KKR is not only backing the commercial value of the shales and chalk but also the ability of Hilcorp to deliver. This means that Hilcorp won't have to ration its own cash resources and slow down the development of the ADI/EKA/AUT acreages. So, everyone is raising capital but Hilcorp through its earlier debt issue and now through an asset sale (in effect). They really do mean to hit this area hard.

Note that Hilcorp itself is happy to dilute its interest for cash and risk transfer. There cannot be any lingering doubts over the JVPs' decision to farmout. Nor their decision to raise further capital to maintain their WIs.

 

[stefan_invester]

well does anyone know
what does all this mean for ADI/EKA/AUT shareholders?

very interested to know if this is a good thing or not

 

[Kremmen]

Until we knew how much KKR was buying, it was fairly meaningless. According to current reports, they are buying 40% of Hilcorp's Eagleford operation for their US$400M. (see Businessweek article)

So, that values Hilcorp's 100,000 net acres at US$1B.

 

[nioka]

Until we knew how much KKR was buying, it was fairly meaningless. According to current reports, they are buying 40% of Hilcorp's Eagleford operation for their US$400M. (see Businessweek article)

So, that values Hilcorp's 100,000 net acres at US$1B.

It is not as simple as that. Are they selling the best acreage, the worst acreage, the most expensive lease areas or the cheapest lease areas.? I doubt they are selling the best!

 

[Silhouetteau]

On a side note,

Does anyone (agentm) know why all the acreages are are named after Brazilian landmarks? (Sugarloaf mountain, Ipanema Beach)