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ADI - Adelphi Energy

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Hey Agent, once we have stabalised Rancho flow rates will we (if Rancho results are positive as I'm expecting) get a reserve upgrade do you think?

Just as a note i because in the target statement, our current fair market value will increase with reserve upgrades as well as an accelerated drilling program as I read it.

61c with most probably a new well each month, I'd be more inclined to say our fair market value by years end will be at the top half of the value in the target statement.
 

Hi rock86
I and others agree with you yet the SP remains static on volumes of just over 1.2m.

I would have thought that the release this morning would have had an immediate impact on the SP especially given that for the first time there are definite plans to drill more wells this year.
Any thoughts?
 

Hey philly, I'm surprised as you. This takeover is holdiing things down at the moment as people are keeping their cards close to their chest to see how things pan out. IMO i'm with agent, we would pretty much be at this price now even without the takeover, and once Rancho results come in we would have been past it. ATM i'd say we're stuck around here for a bit.

However this accelerated drilling program commencing in July is going to add value to the SP, and quick as they will all be post farm out (income earning straight away). 61c fair market value after july, please
 

I am pretty sure the 40c offer by AWE is acting as a psychological benchmark which is keeping the price down now. Taking the offer away at this point may actually cause the price to go up. AUT hit 87c and looks set to go further, I'd say sooner or later ADI is going to move above the 40c area, and once it unsticks it'll probably have a bit of a run.
 
I'll chime in to say this: This multistage frac process is long term for sure. After the water pipeline is set, operators are re-inventing ways to recycle frac water to reduce water consumption by way of hydro recycling plants along the pipeline. That's the plan anyway. This is no small time project.........these are long term rewards here. Fracs will be revisited in multiple stages in decades to come thus furthur providing stimulated production for sales.
 
announcement out...

Rancho Grande Initial Production Rate
The Rancho Grande #1H well commenced flow back on 1st June 2010 and has been flowing on a reduced choke setting. The maximum production rate over a consecutive 24 hour period has been:-

Rancho Grande #1H
Gas Production Rate 3.19 (mmscf/d)
Condensate Production Rate 1170 (bbls/d)
Average Daily Equivalent Gas Rate 18.00 (mmscfe/d)*

* The equivalent gas rates have been calculated to reflect value using a 12:1 conversion ratio for condensate and a 25% uplift on gas equivalent volumes due to the high calorific value of the produced gas.

The intent of producing the well on a reduced choke setting is to investigate whether a limited reservoir drawdown can improve decline rates and the ultimate recovery from the wells. It should be understood that the well is capable of flowing at a higher rate, but this investigation is part of the ongoing efforts to optimise the commerciality of the field. In addition, the following comments should be considered:-
• This is an initial production rate that has been observed during clean up and as such is not yet indicative of a short or long term production profile.
• The well still has considerable fluid to recover from the fracture stimulation.
• The well is currently producing through the production casing. A production tubing string
will be installed in due course.
 

We're seeing some good results, but i don't think this news will be enough to keep the JVPs from going into the red today. Fear is contagious! Conversely this could be a good time to buy in.
 
petrohawk have conducted similar experiments with wells in their acreages.

you compare to declines over 12 months or more and assess the best completion method with your wells.

early days on these wells and various types of completions have been initiated by different operators.

i will be watching the decline on rancho with interest myself over the coming months

eog news is pretty grim with the DEP Ordering EOG Resources to halt all Natural gas drilling in Pennsylvania.. serious blow out in the shale there
 
367 bbls per 1mm cfg looks pretty good. Kowalik 1 started delivering at about that rate. Looking good for Kowalik 2.
 
estseon said:
367 bbls per 1mm cfg looks pretty good. Kowalik 1 started delivering at about that rate. Looking good for Kowalik 2.
Click to expand...

awe will find some huge negative spin on that announcement and tell you all its useless and the best value you will ever achieve it their garbage offer..

the spiel that its fairer and more compelling to sell to them at .40 in light of the facts we see about the sugarkane is laughable.

let me guess, the next announcement will tell us they are doing us a huge favour in offering this measly .40 bid and no doubt it would be far fairer that awe makes takes on the burden of the play rather than the long term adi holders..

lol
 
Agent, I have not seen any ASX updates on Kennedy #1H (2200' lateral) and Weston #1H since 25 March 2010, which reported the 30 day flow rates - 60 and 90day rates should now be available. Do you know of any other sources , ie should I be looking elsewhere, or are they obliged to report to the ASX? Decline rates are vital information.
 
Adelphi Managing Director Chris Hodge commented:

“This successful flow rate, together with the recently announced 30 day production rates from the Morgan and Easley wells, further demonstrates strong production results being consistently achieved across our Sugarloaf acreage - particularly from the more recent optimally drilled and fracture stimulated wells.

With each well result our lease holding continues to be de-risked. This process was recently quantified in the Independent Expert’s Report contained in Adelphi’s Target Statement, where approximately 18%* of Adelphi’s overall lease position was re-classified from “contingent resources” to “reserves” based on the existing producing Sugarloaf AMI wells. These reserves can be expected to further increase now that the Rancho Grande well has demonstrated productivity.

The Independent Expert Report valuation was also subjected to a value discount of approximately 35%** to account for the fact that a significant proportion of the Sugarloaf AMI acreage remains to be developed. With each additional successful well being drilled in our field, such as this latest result from Rancho Grande, the discount being applied to the valuation of this asset can be expected to be further reduced.”

* Refer section 2.6 of the RISC Technical Expert’s Report as part of Adelphi’s Target Statement dated 31 May 2010, using assessed recoverable “P50” reserves and “best estimate” resources based on 80 acre spacing development as applied to the Independent Expert’s preferred market value for Adelphi shares

* *Refer Independent Expert Report (paragraph 125 on page 26) as part of Adelphi’s Target Statement dated 31 May 2010
 
hey agent, when do you think they will have the reserve upgrade figures out??

Before the end of the month?
 
To name this field as "reserves" should de-risk an already de-risked investment even furthur correct ? Perhaps this will invite some larger than .40/share offers around here.
 
rock86 said:
hey agent, when do you think they will have the reserve upgrade figures out??

Before the end of the month?
Click to expand...

there was one done the other week

i dont think any further ones would be needed

 

Attachments

  • zn33pd.png
    63 KB · Views: 2
Goldman Sachs JBWere Group Holdings Pty Ltd ACN 006 163 524 and its subsidiaries (Goldman Sachs JBWere Group)

There was a change in the interests of the substantial holder on 10 June 2010
The previous notice was given to the company on 2 June 2010

Fully Paid Ordinary Shares

Previous
8,545,546
5.05%

PRESENT
10,261,503
6.06%


chipping away.. working at being a decisive vote holder in that last week of chaos
 
I would be guessing that the GSJB holdings are part of ADI's BOD blocking strategy. I think that management held about 4% and with a number of loyal top twenty holders and others probably find that there may well be in total close to over 20% including GSJB.

But I think that this will block AWE attempts.
 
what would be in it for GS to form a blocking stake to stop AWE.. i think GS would rather just get a nice chunk that AWE have to pay them handsomely for....

GS are just after the $$$ imho
 
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