ADI - Adelphi Energy

[estseon]

Not quite, Mick.

A person with lack of confidence is worried that it might fall. He doesn't want it to fall. A person with confidence may want it to fall so that he can pile in and make money on the inevitable rise.

But I take it that you were talking tongue in cheek.

The gap between AUT and ADI could close significantly if the arbitrage traders switch horses.

nursery reported a corker of a trade between EKA and ADI on HC. He reported turning 100k ADI into 145k ADI. Good for him. It wouldn't surprise me to hear of others doing the same using AUT bought before the recent rise.

 

[Agentm]

Not quite, Mick.

A person with lack of confidence is worried that it might fall. He doesn't want it to fall. A person with confidence may want it to fall so that he can pile in and make money on the inevitable rise.

But I take it that you were talking tongue in cheek.

The gap between AUT and ADI could close significantly if the arbitrage traders switch horses.

nursery reported a corker of a trade between EKA and ADI on HC. He reported turning 100k ADI into 145k ADI. Good for him. It wouldn't surprise me to hear of others doing the same using AUT bought before the recent rise.

i am loving the long term holders smashing the sentiment on adi

why not

i see an definite advantage

so i think the sellers should believe it all and sell away imho

do i believe the oil in the eagleford has evaporated.. no

do i see many scenarios about to unfold in the ami and adjoining acreages.. yes

do i believe the sp will drop post the morgan flow results.. i absolutely dont, but most holders have such a negative outlook on the adi share i am certain they wouldnt want me to be placing my money on buy orders and getting ahead out of it, that would cut them to pieces if i made a killing off their negative sentiment.... and i have plenty in reserve if it does..

will the usual suspects maintain a negative stance on their investment day in day out regardless? yes

do i think the likes of hartleys have it understood better? yep

so sell it down big time i say. i am loving the aut price shift and eka's atm

ADELPHI ENERGY LTD

What happened?

Adelphi Energy has reported sustained average 30 day flow rates from its
first two wells at its Sugarloaf project onshore USA. The Kennedy #1H well
has averaged 11.7 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day* (“mmcfe/d”)
and the Weston #1H well has recorded average 30 day production of
11.4mmcfe/d. These results have been achieved without the benefit of
installation of production tubing, which has been indicated in nearby wells to
result in a decrease in initial decline.

The Company has also reported that it now has three additional wells in the
process of being drilled or fracture stimulated.

ADI is free carried through the current work program.

What does it mean?

At these rates, we estimate that each well is making US$50k-US$65k in
revenue per day, with combined revenue from both wells grossing estimated
US$3-4m in the first 30 days. We calculate that the average gas /
condensate production per well is 3.75 million cubic feet of gas per day with
615 barrels of condensate per day (flow rates will decline significantly in the
first year). With well costs estimated at US$6-8m, payback should be
achieved within 5-8 months.

It is still early days; however, each piece of new information received to date
has increased the potential of the play and estimated ultimate recovery per
well is now likely to be significantly greater than 5 billion cubic feet of gas
equivalent. To give an indication of potential value, there could be over 200
well locations on the Sugarloaf acreage, resulting in over 1 trillion cubic feet
of gas equivalent. We estimate that Adelphi’s share of this at current spot
prices (US$80 oil, US$4 gas) is worth ~150cps (using US$2 per mcfe
calculated net present value and 10% working interest post farmout).
At US$100 oil, the valuation potential increases to over 200cps.

Strong newsflow is expected over the next 2-3 months as the additional 3
wells are completed, fracture stimulated and flow tested. Now that the
technical risk has been decreased due to a substantial number of successful
wells being drilled in the play, we view these wells as very low risk (90%
chance of success).

Hartleys Initial View

We recently upgraded ADI to a Buy based on the initial flow rates received
from its first two wells and consistent information from wells in the
surrounding acreage. This new information has increased our confidence in
the potential of the resource and we re-iterate our Buy recommendation and
short term price target of 45cps.

If initial results from the next three wells (expected over the next 2-3 months) continue to be strong, there is substantial room in our valuation for further large upgrades in price target and valuation, as indicated by our unrisked valuation of 188cps.

*mcfe is calculated using a 12:1 conversion ratio for gas / condensate and a 25% uplift in gas equivalent volume due to high calorific value of the produced gas

 

[condog]

Agent

that effectively means they now value it at 90% of 1.88 is my take.

I do not hold, but reading the commentry thats what it means to me.

It makes sense for ADI & EKA to be substantially below AUT, but these prices, given the well results and impending results are comical to a non holder. imo its the effect of the CR being cleared out. time will tell, in a month. As you say its an opportunity.

 

[Agentm]

Agent

that effectively means they now value it at 90% of 1.88 is my take.

I do not hold, but reading the commentry thats what it means to me.

It makes sense for ADI & EKA to be substantially below AUT, but these prices, given the well results and impending results are comical to a non holder. imo its the effect of the CR being cleared out. time will tell, in a month. As you say its an opportunity.

all the jvp members are brilliant value atm.. and i hope morgan will be 60% better than kennedy at a minimum, which will make it probably the best result in the eagleford thus far if i understand things correctly. and thats entirely imho and dyor

and i am investing accordingly into the partners as they move.. both up and down..

i think the reserve upgrade and the coming well results will not see adi get into the teens as many lth would want.. but i am not going to stand and protest their efforts, i am inclined to let it go and take full advantage..

loving their work atm and investing heavily into it..

bit peeved off their efforts has not diminished the sp more, there are 600,000 or more on the buy side between .25 and .28 best we can hope for is a massive sell off as they weave their magic, but i hope they can get it way below .25 in the next day or so, i think we will see them work hard on the threads for it..

 

[lemontree]

I also saw this as an opportunity to pile up more ADI, but unfortunately (or fortunately? ) for us the sp has recovered today. Now sitting at 32c per share. Agentm, you make a good point about all the positives ADI still has to offer in light of the CR, still a bright future ahead for share holders i believe. That is not to say, i am not upset about the recent CR and who they offered it to.

 

[Kremmen]

The whole thing could have been sorted with everyone happy if management had offer a 1:20 (or whatever the correct ratio would be) to existing shareholders with the remainder being taken up by institutions.

Everyone wins.

Quite right. I am currently holding both EKA and ADI. My ADI has been diluted, but EKA has not, as I subscribed to the 10c issue.

Those who are saying the EKA issue wasn't fully subscribed: What?!? No issue ever will be on a straight 1-for-X issue. There are always going to be some shareholders who don't have the money, don't want to invest further, or even just fail to see the paperwork and/or fail to get around to it. I've even missed offers because I was overseas when they happened. EKA's 70% looks like a pretty good achievement to me.

Don't get me wrong: The big issue is that the companies have value. This is a small issue, but it's one which will inevitably annoy loyal shareholders so, IMHO, it was a really stupid management decision.

 

[nioka]

EKA's 70% looks like a pretty good achievement to me.
.

EKA could have had a 100% take up by existing holders if they had allowed applications for excess to entitlements. I'd have asked for at least four times my entitlement. ADI could have made an issue on that basis also. It was discrimination of the smaller holders (as well as against nineteen of the top twenty) that allowed AWE to participate exclusively.

 

[jancha]

Quite right. I am currently holding both EKA and ADI. My ADI has been diluted, but EKA has not, as I subscribed to the 10c issue.

Those who are saying the EKA issue wasn't fully subscribed: What?!? No issue ever will be on a straight 1-for-X issue. There are always going to be some shareholders who don't have the money, don't want to invest further, or even just fail to see the paperwork and/or fail to get around to it. I've even missed offers because I was overseas when they happened. EKA's 70% looks like a pretty good achievement to me.

Don't get me wrong: The big issue is that the companies have value. This is a small issue, but it's one which will inevitably annoy loyal shareholders so, IMHO, it was a really stupid management decision.

Hear Hear Kremmen.
Agentm does a great job informing us on valuable imformation but trace back on comments that Agentm has posted in regard to ADI's CR & backing them on there decision leaves me to believe that Agentm is a bit bias as to ADI's management.
Not trying to abuse you Agentm but i cant see why you would back management on the CR decision.
Anyone holding ADI shares wouldn't be impressed other than those who received 15% discount.
I think the sp price will hang around the 30c for awhile now as some of those holders will sell to make a quick profit while retaining there original shares.
All good in the long run even tho i'm starting to prefer AUT better now and holding more of them.

 

[Agentm]

Hear Hear Kremmen.
Agentm does a great job informing us on valuable imformation but trace back on comments that Agentm has posted in regard to ADI's CR & backing them on there decision leaves me to believe that Agentm is a bit bias as to ADI's management.
Not trying to abuse you Agentm but i cant see why you would back management on the CR decision.
Anyone holding ADI shares wouldn't be impressed other than those who received 15% discount.
I think the sp price will hang around the 30c for awhile now as some of those holders will sell to make a quick profit while retaining there original shares.
All good in the long run even tho i'm starting to prefer AUT better now and holding more of them.

listen jancha, each post you make contains a quip at me

your agenda to make the cap raising directly an issue about me is ludicrous..

every post you make is not just about the cap raising but contains a personal remark about me in some way..

my view, if you had looked back on the issue, was that the cap raising , and indeed any cap raising is not popular, and i could see some rationale for getting institutional support in the case of adi's recent one.

your attacking me about bias and trying in every post to make a personal remark about me is just as offensive as your post about my comments being BS..

i am an adi shareholder and support the plans they have in place, hell why would you invest heavily into a share and be an permanent detractor? and i support the efforts of the adi and the jvp in all their endeavours to get the sugarkane from exploration to development..

again, jancha, just stick to the discussions on adi, dont have to tell the world what your thoughts are about me, whether i am bias, or a full of BS.. its not the topic, the thread is about adi..

and again keep your personal remarks about me out your posts..

 

[jancha]

listen jancha, each post you make contains a quip at me

your agenda to make the cap raising directly an issue about me is ludicrous..

every post you make is not just about the cap raising but contains a personal remark about me in some way..

my view, if you had looked back on the issue, was that the cap raising , and indeed any cap raising is not popular, and i could see some rationale for getting institutional support in the case of adi's recent one.

your attacking me about bias and trying in every post to make a personal remark about me is just as offensive as your post about my comments being BS..

i am an adi shareholder and support the plans they have in place, hell why would you invest heavily into a share and be an permanent detractor? and i support the efforts of the adi and the jvp in all their endeavours to get the sugarkane from exploration to development..

again, jancha, just stick to the discussions on adi, dont have to tell the world what your thoughts are about me, whether i am bias, or a full of BS.. its not the topic, the thread is about adi..

and again keep your personal remarks about me out your posts..

Fair enough Agentm.
You stated your oppinion on this thread about ADI & it's CR stating that it was good for new blood ect.
Didn't intend on ruffling your feathers just stating that i dont agree on your thoughts with ADI's CR.
I have supported ADI managements decisions in the past but not on the CR to selected few.
Thats all.
If it sounds personal & i'm attacking you in some way it wasn't meant to be more of a response to your comment on the CR as others respond & you yourself respond to others.
I will however omit comments as BS & bias in future as you have obviously been offended by it.

 

[Agentm]

jancha, being biased and full of BS, as you call me, is what you want to portray me as.. as far as i am concerned i wont go into a slanging match as to what i think you are..

its easy to just post a point of view, many do, and its obvious its not possible for you to just post a point of view, it requires you add more and to just call someone as biased or them to be full of BS.

am i supposed to ignore your taunts jancha? lol


but you never backed it up..

imho if your changing the topic and just want to call someone biased, prove it.. or if you intending on degrading someone and telling all they are full of BS.. prove it..

your intention to deflect the topic from adi to me is a complete success jancha..

love to post what i think of you jancha.. but all in all your not worth it..

enjoy the thread and thanks for your enlightening input jancha..

lets just say i cant agree with your opinions of me..

i am having trouble discussing adi atm. and believe it would be great to discuss adi and not your opinions of me jancha. maybe you need to change the subject matter jancha???

somehow i dont think you can discuss adi jancha, it seems your fixated with your insults on me atm..

lol

 

[condog]

With respect to all parties this is a brilliant thread. Lets drop it and move on, clearly both have expressed how you feel and your contributions to the ADI thread are very much appreciated.

 

[Hatchy]

Announcement out today.
Marvelous flow rates.
I am a little interested to see that easley's frac was fairly short.

Anyone else notice that you can't just copy and paste out of the PDF's anymore?

 

[prgudula]

5 May 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online
Further Success in Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field - Sugarloaf AMI Production Update
Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”) is pleased to provide the following initial production results
from the recently stimulated Morgan #1H and Easley #1H wells located within the Sugarloaf
AMI in the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field.
Morgan #1H
Following the successful fracture stimulation of approximately 4,400 ft of horizontal section as
per the frac design, the Morgan #1H well was flowed back to sales commencing on 27 April
2010. The well production has now stabilized and the following Initial Production rate was
achieved:
· 5.16 mmscf/d Gas & 2,046 bcpd or 31 mmscfe/d
Easley #1H
Following the successful fracture stimulation of approximately 2,750 ft of horizontal section as
per the frac design, the Easley #1H well was flowed back to sales commencing on 1 May
2010. The well production stabilized relatively quickly and the following Initial Production rate
was achieved:
· 6.81 mmscf/d Gas & 780 bcpd or 17.9 mmscfe/d
Whilst these initial rates are very encouraging, the following points should be noted:-
• These values are the maximum average rates achieved over consecutive 24 hour
flowing periods since the wells were brought on line.
• The gas equivalent rates have been calculated using a 12:1 conversion ratio and a
25% uplift in the gas rate based on the observed high calorific value of the gas
produced within the field to date.
• These are initial production rates observed during clean up and as such are not yet
indicative of a short or long term production profile.
• The wells still have considerable fluids to recover from the fracture stimulation
operations.
• The wells are currently producing through the production casing. A production tubing
string will be installed in due course in each well.
Adelphi Managing Director Chris Hodge commented:
“These latest flow rates are at the higher end of our expectations and continue to
demonstrate the highly productive liquids rich nature of the Eagle Ford shale in our area. We
now have four producing wells within the Sugarloaf AMI and have successfully appraised a
2
large proportion of our lease area. We look forward to the upcoming fracture stimulation of
the Rancho Grande well and to the continued production performance of our existing wells
before commencement of the Sugarloaf development phase.€

 

[Agentm]

pretty spectacular results imho

i think its way beyond anything i have seen anywhere in the eagleford..

blue sky right now

will be adding some heavily today

 

[condog]

pretty spectacular results imho

i think its way beyond anything i have seen anywhere in the eagleford..

blue sky right now

will be adding some heavily today

Absolutely staggering is my way to describe it.

Makes Rancho and others look good. Down day today could be a blessing for multiple reasons.

 

[Speculator]

Absolutely staggering is my way to describe it.

Makes Rancho and others look good. Down day today could be a blessing for multiple reasons.

Beautiful result could not have hoped for better or a better day to have them released.

Makes me feel all warm and fusy inside.

Good Luck ALL!

 

[barney]

Morgan is a monster !:taz:
That one well will pay for the forward drilling of a new well every two months without having to dip into the bikkie barrel (after Hilcorp cover their initial costs of course) The future looks very positive for all the JVp's. The toppy market might help the late comers get in a reasonable prices ..... but I'm not sure there will be too many chances left ..... personally I hope the sp rises on the back of a falling market to cement a real base under the price.

 

[Agentm]

the sell off is brilliant

adi is getting smashed atm..

with that result and the way the stock market is today, its pure gold for me..

waiting for the low point today and its all about timing today

keep on selling is all i can say

 

[Ramblin Round]

Yes all, can't wait to pile up more of ADI here.

Hatchy, yes I've noticed too. Had to capture and save like this to share: Try control V then drop the screenshot on a Word document or equivalent. Go from there to increase size, etc.