ADI - Adelphi Energy

[condog]

Thats cool guys - you all got the message loud and clear. Your making your own investment decisions based on your opionion and research which is fine.

Hope for your sakes your right.

By the way acerage is no longer an issue at all. With so much demand for the acerage a farmi-in partner would be instantly found if capital was required and would come at a pretty good price.

 

[subi1]

jet theres no skew about it.

If AUt have 10 wells of post hilcorp cashflow and ADI have three which do you think will be able to fund more drilling.

In the second year if AUT have significantly more wells, possibly 3-4 times as many, which do you think will have more cash fklow for the following year.

Its not rocket science. If you chose to ignore or disagree with what i regard as this fact thats absolutely 100% fine, but dont say you where not warned or whinge that ADI is not keeping up with AUt, which has been the case lately.

Just do yourself a favour and go into it with eyes wide open.

I have , in recent months sold SEA, ADI, AZZ and EKA plus a few others and put all funds into AUt, not because i have any allegiance with AUt over the others, but because i did enough research and have enough experience to know whats happening. Its a game of multiple and leverage. AUT has it all, with the derisked capacity the Eagleford now provides.


Do as you will, but please know whats happening its so blatently obvious.

ADI are going to have 6 wells after Hilcorp finishes their farmin commitments not 3 so can you let us know how you came up with 3. (Kennedy,Kowalik, Weston & the 3 new wells)

ADI also have less shares and therefore any profit from their wells means more profit per share for holders. It isn't all one way as you appear to be pushing.

 

[Agentm]

jet theres no skew about it.

If AUt have 10 wells of post hilcorp cashflow and ADI have three which do you think will be able to fund more drilling.

In the second year if AUT have significantly more wells, possibly 3-4 times as many, which do you think will have more cash fklow for the following year.

Its not rocket science. If you chose to ignore or disagree with what i regard as this fact thats absolutely 100% fine, but dont say you where not warned or whinge that ADI is not keeping up with AUt, which has been the case lately.

Just do yourself a favour and go into it with eyes wide open.

I have , in recent months sold SEA, ADI, AZZ and EKA plus a few others and put all funds into AUt, not because i have any allegiance with AUt over the others, but because i did enough research and have enough experience to know whats happening. Its a game of multiple and leverage. AUT has it all, with the derisked capacity the Eagleford now provides.


Do as you will, but please know whats happening its so blatently obvious.

Thats cool guys - you all got the message loud and clear. Your making your own investment decisions based on your opionion and research which is fine.

Hope for your sakes your right.

By the way acerage is no longer an issue at all. With so much demand for the acerage a farmi-in partner would be instantly found if capital was required and would come at a pretty good price.

condog, imho your offering investment advice here time and again..

can you clearly state that the purpose of your posts in the adi thread right now is not to offer any investment advice nor any leanings for any investor to sell adi and go into a share you say is better. for instance aut..

i am asking you this as i think your failing to understand the purpose of the forum, and the rules that guide it

RESPONSIBILITIES OF POSTERS

It is not permitted for any Aussie Stock Forums member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor.

Aussie Stock Forums members are solely responsible for the accuracy and authenticity of their posts, including any alterations made to posts.

It is not permitted for Aussie Stock Forums members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.



my view is that when your saying this

"Just do yourself a favour and go into it with eyes wide open.

I have , in recent months sold SEA, ADI, AZZ and EKA plus a few others and put all funds into AUt, not because i have any allegiance with AUt over the others, but because i did enough research and have enough experience to know whats happening. Its a game of multiple and leverage. AUT has it all, with the derisked capacity the Eagleford now provides.


Do as you will, but please know whats happening its so blatently obvious."

your handing out a lot of investment advice to others, saying that you have enough experience to know whats happening..

also you say this

"Its not rocket science. If you chose to ignore or disagree with what i regard as this fact thats absolutely 100% fine, but dont say you where not warned or whinge that ADI is not keeping up with AUt, which has been the case lately"


can you clearly clarify and make it perfectly clear to me that your not posting any advice, not recommending aut over adi in any way what so ever, nor stating aut has far superior investment outcome..

just asking whether your just ramping the aut share on the adi thread and offering advice to investors or not here.. please make it very very clear what your intention are on this thread for me..

TIA

all imho and dyor

 

[condog]

Agent I categorically state that it is not advice. Investors should always do thier own research, seek expert advice and make thier own decisions.

The purpose of my points made is to alert investors to what they seem to be ignoring or unaware of so they can discuss these issues with thier brokers and advisors.

Agent you yourself said less then 2 weeks ago that you could not reisst and that AUT was a no brainer.

In my opinion, and its only opinion i do think AUt will have a far superior outcome. But hey thats only opinion. My intention is not to ramp or cross ramp, but to inform, so investors are well versed on whats occuring. given most holders of AUT and ADI and EKA do the majority of there discusssion in this thread it is appropriate that it be in here.

 

[nioka]

Actually it was Lemontree who suggested possible rotation out of ADI into AUT. I noted that on the basis of the trading volumes in the two stocks, rotation would have had only a minor effect on AUT's sp - there was a lot more new buying.
The relativity between ADI and AUT (and EKA for that matter) is an interesting subject. While there are the fundamental considerations that have been well described already, there is also a technical aspect. The attached PairTradeFinder charts (see separate thread for PairTradeFinder details) show a definite cyclical pattern in the relativity between ADI and AUT - at the moment it could be argued that ADI is on the verge of reasserting itself against AUT.
There is, of course, no guarrantee that the historical pattern will repeat, so I'm not sure if this helps or not - but there it is.

What the charts don't show s the daily fluctuations in the Relative SPs. It is usually possible to buy at lower than the closing price and sell at higher than the closing price. I usually have a high buy order or a low sell order placed and wait for its execution. eg. I bought some ADI at 26c both today and yesterday ( which is marginally lower than the average price during that time) after selling at 30c 3 weeks ago. I had to wait 3 weeks to replace them but I did end up with a few thousand more freebies.During that 3 weeks I used the funds to turnover EKA for a few freebies there too.

 

[Bigukraine]

What the charts don't show s the daily fluctuations in the Relative SPs. It is usually possible to buy at lower than the closing price and sell at higher than the closing price. I usually have a high buy order or a low sell order placed and wait for its execution. eg. I bought some ADI at 26c both today and yesterday ( which is marginally lower than the average price during that time) after selling at 30c 3 weeks ago. I had to wait 3 weeks to replace them but I did end up with a few thousand more freebies.During that 3 weeks I used the funds to turnover EKA for a few freebies there too.

smart man.... did the same thing but with rhm instead but yet to buy back into adi.... will wait a little longer market to hot in other areas imo at the min. and due to the lack of info being given from the ami partners they don't deserve my money at this point in time ...imo dyor

 

[Miner]

Condog I'm pretty sure we all know that AUT is going to create a gap from the other JVP's with Longhorn and Ipenama being drilled, however I do think with the recent marketing and promotion that AUT has been doing is the reason we are seeing an increasing number of trades over the past few days not there additional acreage (which has been known for some time now). Maybe the other JVP's can take a leaf out AUT's book and start promoting and marketing themselves as AUT is presently doing, good on the AUT BOD.

[/B][/COLOR]

Yep agree there. This has been on goat for a while. While its great to have a company thats not rampng itself and playing its cards close to its chest with very smooth and calculated announcements, there is nothing wrong with a bit of self promotion. i know, fine line between self promotion and ramping. under promotion can be just as worthless as self ramping.....

Not quite so obvious Condog,

No one knows what the forward plan is for hilcorp or how these fracced wells will produce.

They may pay back Hilcorp in 2-3 months or it may be longer...so AUT may be waiting longer for cashflow. Remember AUT only get paid once Hilcorp have re-couped their driling and fraccing costs.

Ever here the story about the small players being drilled out, with AUT's added percentage for their additional acreage comes additional risk associated with their ability in keeping up with capital requirements...no one really knows what Hilcorps forward plan is. Hilcorp will not wait for AUT to raise money if they decide to go nuts!! Look at how quickly they are smashing the wells at the moment. Who is to say how fast they accelerate their drilling program. The presentation from AUT provides a nice little schedule for forward drilling but none of the JVP I talk to can give me any indication of what the real forward plan for Hilcorp is.

I wouldnt be so confident in telling people what is blantently obvious when it is far from so....AUT may have more blue sky based on their acreage but be careful...as you say go in with your eyes wide open...LOL

con, you might find that I dont whinge about what I invest in. Its great that you can swap and change your holdings in various companys.

You got this razzle n dazzle thing going on like a sideshow vendor. Tomcat shares the same opinion on your simplistic well acceleration.

Look into how the jvp's are going to manage the acerage, I know thats foremost with ADI management and they would concur that AUT will need a huge deal of cash to go forward/manage their lease and more than likely their portion of wells to be drilled.
This is no sledge on AUT management just my opinion.

The presentation from AUT certainly got the desired result.

As for the do yourself a favour with the eyes wide open, yeaah right,,,lol.

Folks

Please help me.
I am totally confused.
All the above posts are related to AUT but posted in ADI.
I am sure there is a separate thread for AUT too and why not post there ?
No offence not disagreeing the merit of AUT, the ADI only holders would like to see the posting on ADI in ADI thread and no matter how valuable pieces are there on AUT - please post in relevant thread.

I hold ADI and do not hold AUT.

Thanks

 

[Agentm]

there are 5 current asx listed companies actively operating in the eagleford that i am aware of, all with very interesting and different plays under their acreages

TXN operates in live oak and has a great position in the AWP region that petrohawk had recently paid a premium for to get access to,
texon have a well drilling and testing the eagleford atm under the awp field

AZZ operates in the tougher economics zone, the oil zone.. the ADI jvp operates in the more favourable wet gas zone with TXN

these respective oil/wet gas/dry gas zones have vastly different economics due to well spacings for AZZ and very much a hard one to manage with the incredible costs needed to keep those oily acreages

ADI/AUT/EKA and TXN sit in the wet gas zone, and we all know that unlike AZZ the wet gas wells are being classified as gas wells in the sugarkane. all wells from live oak to dewitt have been classified that way by both hilcorp and conocophillips

all players will get significant upside from their respective positions in the play, the biggest factor that will impact upside on all the players is how much the costs will be to hold the acreages considering their respective acreages and the equally important well spacings requirements that will be
needed to hold those acreages.. and how much cash they hold or debt they have is also a critical factor in valuations and future dilutions.. imho a few of the small caps in the ADI jvp will have little requirements for massive dilutions with vastly smaller % giving huge leverage into the play

i totally agree with a lot of opinion that these players have amazing potential, and we have seen one player peak recently in AZZ then fall back heavily as major investors bailed and further again as keen investors spotted production figures reported did not match the reported figures to the RRC

imho this wont happen to the adi jvp. only accurate production figures are given, no hyped up ip's, and all ips and the oil/gas ratio's for the sugarkane are 100% exact to the operators TRRC releases

biggest downside is of course whether any of these players burn their respective investors with inaccurate figures and valuations, which imho makes it hard for the small cap sector to have institutional investors confidence in them.. we can only hope whats happening atm improves and the potential damage doesnt continue

so far i have seen 100% accurate announcements by the ADI jvp, equally i like the txn standard.. its no secret that i am seeing a lot of discrepencies that concern me from azz, as nothing matches up to their operators releases on the IP report nor monthly production to the TRRC. adi has also not held back any long term production figures, which is vastly different to azz, and unlike azz, they see absolutely no reason to not disclose these production figures and announced their 60 day flow rates and have been incredibly open on how good their wells are, even with the 2 wells being drilled for chalks completions and being 2200 and 3000 feet long, they are very impressive 60 day numbers and far superior to anything seen east of the adi acreages in the petrohawk mucmullen and lasalle fields..

this eagleford, and in the case of ADI, the sugarkane (which is eagleford and chalks) has incredible upside potential, but economics have to be there for upside to be realised..

keeping oil wells acreages is far easier for the big players like eog with deep pockets imho, and its very very evident if your a small cap, the oil regions will restrict your capacity to have negotiations in selling out if you cant hold your position

importantly hilcop have done an amazing job as operator, unlike azz, the hilcorp operator for adi has now nailed 19 day completions with a super efficient H&P rig, so rig costs and well costs are significantly down compared to the other aussie listed eagleford players.. azz announced in the last days that it took an entire month to drill their second well, so they have a long way to go before they can demonstrate the economics of cost efficient drilling like hilcorp have.. a well imho at 5000 feet can pay itself off in a month based on them achieving the same ratio on production rates from 5000 feet that the 2 shorter laterals so far have demonstrated.

the eagleford will become very relevant and valuable to many in the very near term imho, adi is imho very much under valued with hartleys seeing near term the sp reaching a .45 valuation.. that will come as these wells come online. so atm adi have a huge amount of potential in just the near term let alone the long term..

waiting for the market to accept the story, which in america is very very much understood but clearly not so in australia

a few years back i said this was the biggest discovery onshore in the us for a long long time, and laughed at.. i hear many US oil giants CEO's saying the same thing openly now.. misunderstood in australia for sure atm, but as soon as these next wells open up in the coming days to weeks a different story will unfold imho

all imho and dyor

 

[mick z]

why are you even comparing azz to adi there not even in the same location, they are miles and miles away please keep the topic on track please.

cheers

 

[Agentm]

as i said in my previous post, the hartleys valuation will come into play as the wells are put into production

we see today that the morgan well is being fracced

come on hilcorp, deliver us a 5000 foot lateral please!

22 April 2010
Company Announcements Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited
Exchange Centre
20 Bond Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000
Via ASX Online

SUGARLOAF AMI OPERATIONS UPDATE

Adelphi Energy Limited ("Adelphi") is pleased to provide the following update on operations at the Sugarloaf AMI within the Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.

Morgan #1H

Adelphi has been advised by the Operator that the multi-stage fracture stimulation operation on the Morgan #1H well commenced on 16 April 2010. The fracture stimulation design is similar to that recently successfully applied to the Kennedy #1H and Weston #1H wells.
Following completion of this operation the well will be flowed directly to sales.

Easley #1H

The previously advised fracture stimulation on the Easley #1H has now been re-scheduled to commence following the conclusion of the Morgan #1H frac later this month.

Rancho Grande #1H

After reaching a Total Depth of 16,957 ft with a horizontal lateral of approximately 5,000 ft, production casing has now been run and cemented in preparation for a multi-stage fracture stimulation program which has been scheduled to commence following the conclusion of the Easley #1 frac during May 2010. As with the other Sugarloaf AMI wells, Rancho Grande #1H will be cleaned up and produced directly into sales upon conclusion of that operation.


nice update there imho

 

[AngusSmart]

I really dont mind all the cross talk in this thread with AZZ AUT ADI EKA, TXN..

they are all at play in the similar area, some may have other interests elsewhere but its great to see how they are all going in one happy place..

i still only hold one of them. but have been lookin at a topup or another one of the 5..

 

[WRONG'UN]

You speak for yourself, Mick. As far as I'm concerned, Agentm's post is spot on - great post, Agentm!

 

[rcm617]

I think we will all be well rewarded in any of Eagleford players, I have shares in a few of them. AZZ does have a few problems but on an EV/BOE it is also the cheapest, $1.55 compared to $2.85 for ADI, so these problems are already in the share price. If the price of gas keeps dropping it may be an advantage to have higher oil to gas ratios.

 

[Agentm]

The Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas is getting a lot of buzz.

Some things being said about Eagle Ford:

* 50 drilling rigs should allow production to grow to nearly 40,000 barrels of oil per day within the next 24 months. That's roughly $1 billion worth of oil per year at current prices.

* Eagle Ford to yield more than $2 billion in oil and gas by 2013 and to increase steadily for at least 20 years. These numbers mean Eagle Ford will probably produce hundreds of billions worth of oil and gas over the next 30-40 years.

* On April 7, EOG Resources announced drilling results from 16 test wells drilled across a 120-mile trend. Based on the initial results and a core analysis, EOG believes it will produce 900 million barrels of crude from these wells over the next decade.

 

[adobee]

I think it may be time for a new thread called the Eagleford Oil Play for discussion and comparison of the many players rather than it taking place in ADI thread.. Which I think it does cause ADI seems to get the most interest and views.. Aside from AZZ, EKA, AUT, TXN, ADI are there any other small cap players getting amongst it .. more so the ones on ASX or other ASX with substanial exposure via share holdings etc in Petrohawk or EOG ..

 

[Agentm]

i dont know of any other ASX eagleford players myself adobee, AWE perhaps with their 32% holding in adi is the only other i can think of.. i hear they are pretty impressed with the shale play adi has.. which means imho the chance of them selling out is pretty low, making the share tightly held still for a long time to come

my friends in texas tell me the morgan frac is pretty advanced, the jvp say its 6 days in already.. i would have thought by mid to late next week the whole show will be possibly over..

5000 foot of morgan is about to be put on production.. we saw pioneer report their 5000 foot well near by and on trend Handy 1h

"Initial production at the Handy well of 19.9 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day (mmcfe/d) had a high liquids component. This confirms the potential for liquids-rich production in Karnes County after similar results in Live Oak and DeWitt Counties. "

bring it on!

 

[nioka]

A question for Agentm.Or anyone else that can suggest an answer.

How long will it take Hillcorp to recover the drilling expenses if the wells perform as expected. Or better still an estimated time related to different levels of production.

My prediction is that there should be a positive cash flow for the three partners within months.

 

[mick z]

hi nokia,

i would think they have recoup there out lay for the fraced well already i'm guessing would cost approx
1.5 to 2mil per frac both wells have produced about 30mil barrels each so far so we should be getting cash flow from them now.
as for the other three wells each wells cost approx 7 to 8mil
maybe arround 4mths each ?

cheers

 

[Lachlan6]

Looking positive. Has spent a couple of months consolidating on low volume so the next sunstantial move should be to the upside.

 

[Joe Blow]

Asking questions or challenging the analysis of someone else is fair enough, but posting solely with the intention of provoking others is not.

Lets stay on topic and keep it civil please!