ADI - Adelphi Energy

[kevro]

Hi Ironchef, I spoke to ADI yesterday and they told me they are not going to annouce everyday. That they stressed does not however mean they are not getting any more gas shows. Back to standard Wed unless something extra ordinary happens.
I suspect the gas shows have become the ordinary, they sounded pretty damn content IMO.

 

[Agentm]

i will post this.. as i did in another forum..

it was in response to couchys email that was posted saying they had 6 shows,


i prefer the reports from adi..

what i mean by that is, they are not reporting every show, and they have indicated last week that they had shows.. should they report daily every show?? in my view that would cause a ramp like we see at GDN,, and then cause the share price to rise and collapse 50% in days.. if you know of anyone who would love this senario played out on this share, then do the right thing and also spare a thought for buyers at the peak who end up seeing 50% of their investment wasted on hype.. i am happy for anyone who invests in this share or any share and makes gains,, IMHO this share has massive upside,, staggering upside potential.. and DYOR and make sure you understand what sugarloaf potentially can be..

everything texas crude came for has been found to be correct in my view, this is an excellent result, outstanding so far.. what couchy writes in emails is not what adi is able to say, its speculting, and would cause massive headaches for the management.. so we will get conservative and completely unramped reports, sugarloaf is not the exit point for adi, they have long term plans, not only for sugarloaf development as they report in their annual report, but for the yemen also.. not a one well wonder,, new tiaton is less of a risk than sugarloaf secondaries,, so think about the implications of tiaiton making gas shows in the coming weeks also.. (scheduled late nov 06)

this share can deliver in my view so i stay in it and wont sell.. i dont see the upside as todays prices,, and my view is similar to some others,, that the potential for sugarloaf to deliver multi TCF results has not been discounted.. and until that happens i wont leave my position, and i will remain as positive as i have always been towards this stock.. i am not asking for faith to deliver a good result,, but i always look to discount the reasons i invest for to determin the exit strategy, and for me the secondaries was all i had wanted results in, in either new tiaton or sugarloaf.. my faith is still in the secondaries,, and the primaries are certainly attractive.. cant find a single reason to exit, cant see a single report to dampen or discount what the texas boys went there for..

so i wont sell, only accumulate as i can..

DYOR on this stock and make sure you understand the risks of investing in the oil and gas business.. large upside and like we see in GDN,, massive downside if the numbers dont add up..

We have 6 significant shows. Wait for the final log for final evaluation.

Nice to have a good gas show + a good gamma ray log.

Charles Couch

Exploration Manager

Oil2 Holdings, Inc

1919 Rhome Street

Dallas, Texas 75229

(972) 444-0256

Fax (972) 444-0276

cell (214) 616-3832

 

[kevro]

Hi Agent M, Couchie mentions 6 significant shows. I make only 3 declared 24m+ shows declared. Does that mean there are 3 more to be announced do you think?

 

[Agentm]

thats the speculation.. and no ones saying that what couchy said isnt the truth.. i saw another one of couchys emails on the weekend, which was speculation, but if you look at his figures against the logs posted by tarzan,, then they are spot on..

if that was a ramp for monday, it was a spot on guess by the ramapers.. and todays email has couchys confidence all over it..

my gut feeling is the email is more than likely on the correct side, sandy beaches who posted it hasnt posted anything that was fabricated todate that i have seen..

six shows is exciting, and they are only shows.. but it leans the same ways as every other piece of news around on this well.. its yet to have a real bad day!!! i mean if couchy is correct, this primary is becoming bigger and bigger..

DYOR on the side on these reports, and make of it what you want.. buy IMHO i think the weekly reports if anything will just confirm further and further shows and plays.. thats all we seem to hear from couchy..

sounds encouraging in my books though.. if all the rumours are continually becoming fact.. then i am very happy with my adi position..

 

[HOMER J]

well if the rumours are true we should all be smiling around lunch time tomorrow

 

[maverick11]

Well you know, the food here is pretty expensive. I am also walking to work so I can save the petrol money. Another idea I have come up with is eating my cereal with a fork to save on milk. I'm not as bad as agentm though, as I still have a chair to sit on and clean underwear I will be keeping a close eye on things this afternoon to see if it sells down and maybe buy a couple more. Won't care either way as I have a nice hand already - but if it sells down I might as well capitalise on the opportunity...must be a male thing

Looks like ADI will revert back to weekly announcments now, so I suspect tomorrows will be a good one. The more I read from sugarloaf the more confident I am of this being something really special. Someone mentioned the project running overbudget (what budget doesn't)... I can assure you they wouldn't continue drilling for no reason...they already have their bases covered with the secondaries and hosston is now looking like rumour turning into fact. There has been a total of 7 gas plays up until last weekend, with speculation of more since then. The hosston sands have been almost continuous gas...roll on tomorrow. At this stage the only thing I can't understand is you would think if they are hitting multiple gas plays, then this would need to be reported asap. Yes, the SP would go nuts like the folks over at GDN, but where do you draw the line in terms of informing the market?

 

[Agentm]

thats the point i think..

how do you value continuos gas play after gas play..???

the values for 800BCF find is $6

this primary may be multi TCF for all we know..

one option is to take the shares off the market, then afterwards let the market go again once the flow testing is done..

one thing is for sure, whatever happens the directors at adi will run it with the best interests of the shareholders at heart.. i feel they dont want a reputation that is following some in this oil game.. theres too much at stake in the future as i believe this is a world class well, and the development of the hosston sands should it be what its rumoured to be comes true, needs people with great repute and not cowboys.. so i think they will react to whatever happens appropriately.

 

[Lvl26]

you're just guessing

 

[Agentm]

sure.

just speculating..

whats your guess?

 

[Broadside]

does everyone agree that if there have been gas shows since last Friday they will be included in tomorrow's weekly update?

 

[maverick11]

does everyone agree that if there have been gas shows since last Friday they will be included in tomorrow's weekly update?

7 shows total up to the 10th Nov, 4 of them in the hosston over an interval of only 300ft. I guess it depends whether they call "continuous gas" shows 8,9,10,11....

I am eagerly awaiting tomorrow to see how they are going to handle things going forward. I'm guessing it will be good news regardless. Lets hope there are no more delays in drilling which have slowed things down the last few weeks.

 

[fflintoff]

Hi Agent M, Couchie mentions 6 significant shows. I make only 3 declared 24m+ shows declared. Does that mean there are 3 more to be announced do you think?

-------------------------------------------------------
Kev,
First show was Austin Chalk at 11895ft. Now 7 different shows in this well in toto.

SHOW REPORT NO. 1
COMPANY: TEXAS CRUDE
WELL# SUGARLOAF #1
LOCATION
KARNES CO.
TEXAS
DEPTH INTERVAL: 11895 TO 11970 (MD) TOTAL FTG: 75
TO (TVD)
BIT INFORMATION: BIT TYPE- PDC BIT HOURS- N/A
AVERAGES: BEFORE DURING AFTER MAXIMUM
ROP (fph) 27 34 15 51
WOB 10 10 12 12
RPM 120 110 110 122
MUD WT 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4
CHLORIDE N/A N/A N/A N/A
TOTAL GAS 32 56 92 150
C1 (ppm) 6549 11014 18520 28360
C2 (ppm) TRACES 345 1245 1490
C3 (ppm) 0 56 325 400
C4 (ppm) 0 0 0 TRACE
C5 (ppm) 0 0 0 0
CUTTINGS FLUORESCENCE%: NONE COLOR: N/A
INTENSITY: N/A CUT: N/A
FORMATION DESCRIPTION:
CHALK = LT GRY, BRNISH GRY, OFF WHT TO DIRTY WHT; SFT, SOLUBLE, MOD FRM; V/ARGIL
(MARLY); DNSE TENACITY; SBBLKY UNEVEN FRACT; PLATY, AMORPH, PDC TO NOD CTNGS
HABIT; DULL, EARTHY LUSTER; ASSOC AND INTBDD WITH SHALE AND CALCAREOUS SILTS
LOGGING GEOLOGIST(S): C. H. Friloux
SHOW SUMMARY FROM: 10/17/2006 TO: 10/17/2006
WELL NAME / JOB#: SUGARLOAF #1
OPERATOR: TEXAS CRUDE ENERGY, INC.
CONTRACTOR: PATTERSON DRILLING RIG #30
PROJECTED DEPTH: 21000
SPUD DATE: 08/16/06
WELL API NO:
STATE:
COUNTY:
FIELD:
DIVISION:
TEXAS
KARNES COUNTY
PROSPECT V-1994
GULF COAST INLAND
Report Date: 10/17/2006.

 

[kevro]

Hi fflintoff, I might just be getting bogged down on terminology. Basically the difference between a gas show and a "significant" gas show as used by Couchie. How big is a significant I wonder as opposed to you everyday, run of the mill back yard variety gas show.

 

[austrader02]

Hi All,

Been following this forum and III in Uk very closely. Having worked for ARC for 3yrs i have only good things to say about the people there and ADI management (who are in the same office). Unfortunately i cannot say any further but the people there are v.good! Its not a company that wants a share price of $1.50 tommorow and then $0.75 the day after. I am totally in agreement with AgentM and Maverick in that that whatever targets they have talked about they have hit. From the zones they have potentially hit after drilling past 18000ft means they could be flying here! For a small company that would add immense value and the current price is only the start! A lot of posts by couch have been written - how many real i am not sure but i do agree with you AgentM that his posts and your findings do i have direct correlation which should point to good news tommorow!

Lets not forget, onshore discoveries are put on production asap in the gas-hungry US markets and ARC the big-brother of ADI would help them achieve that asap! So lets hope for some good news tommorow. I think the wirelines is what excites me and a flow-test. Over the next few weeks we will see fluctuations as day-traders have fun....people pounce on another gas zone etc. But my analysis points to one-thing.......the current price is only the start!

BUT DYOR!

Agent M.......i do agree $6 could happen but what would need doing between now and then to make that a reality. What time frame are u thinking? I think a TCF+ would blow this price....why the market hasnt understood this is baffling!

Look forward to adding my views and making money with you all!

 

[Agentm]

welcome aboard

who can figure if its $6 or $20

i think $6 for the austin chalks.. oil and gas..

the hosston.. if it goes multi TCF instaed of a tight 800 BCF?? the sums are frightening!!

you must know i am an arq and adi shareholder, been accumulating arq early on and adi since day one..so long term.. went through magnolia without a show, so i was only banking on a secondary for the sugarloaf and tiaton.. now the primary is firing its getting interesting.. its all past what i expected..

$6 can tbe achieved straight up.. surely?? i would have thought some form of reserve estimates would have to be drawn up before that price goes on the boards.. but i wouldnt be at all shocked if the price went past $1 in the near term, and possibly a whole lot higher if confidence in the primary came through.. but i cant estimate outcomes,, i know my exit price, and it isnt $6 and its a lot higher,, but for others they all have their day, and their target price.. i sit and wait on this one.. but will never see .30 again!!!

as for couch.. all posts and emails i have seen, fake or not, are bang on the money.. so what do you make of it??

cheers tomorrow is looking good..

 

[austrader02]

You look at most of big offshore discoveries and Pluto for example for Woodside was a couple of TCF and that was offshore and the project got a go-ahead. It is marginally positive NPV but their real reasoning was the have a pipeline route and onshore plant such that other companies gas fields can tie-into their line and process their plant at a premium. But what it highlights is a couple of TCF is still marginal postive offshore for Woodside.......onshore TCF for ADI that would be mindblowing!

I think the jointventures so far have been quite reserved in their releases without any outlandish statements....and fair enough...they all dont want to say its a killer well and then realise it was tight but is it? I totally doubt it as Couch is the only one who hasnt got his hands tied totally. His opinion is that gas was seen on the cuttings and while that is common it does represent good porosity for the well! I agree AgentM that all the numbers look good but some dubious but most importantly his depths on the report match the releases etc!

My view is that we will all be happy by Christmas. I stil feel End-Nov we will be TD then completion, flow-test and reserves estimate.---------end of the year near christmas we all can buy ourselves a good present. What they have said is there.....now its time to flow it!

 

[maverick11]

Great posts daytrader. A gas show is a gas show. Kevro, the ones that have been reported are really just babies, like the 28,360ppm methane reported in show #1 when they first entered the Austin chalk. Think of 100,000+ppm as significant and then throw in some oil!

I agree with agentm that this one has slipped through the radar, largely due to management not deliberately ramping the stock. The Austin chalks are looking to be simply massive with both gas and oil and the hosston sands are looking great too with almost continuous shows. Austin alone has got ADI covered, and whatever comes of hosston will just be a bonus. And then there is also New Taiton!

G'night all. Lets hope for some pleasant news tomorrow. I'm actually quite keen to see how this is all played out over the next few weeks, but am sure it will be a great ride.

 

[fflintoff]

Hi fflintoff, I might just be getting bogged down on terminology. Basically the difference between a gas show and a "significant" gas show as used by Couchie. How big is a significant I wonder as opposed to you everyday, run of the mill back yard variety gas show.

------------------
Kev,
A significant hydrocarbon show as per Couch is one that needs about 100 wells to drain. Run of the mill show needs about 99 wells.

 

[kevro]

------------------
Kev,
A significant hydrocarbon show as per Couch is one that needs about 100 wells to drain. Run of the mill show needs about 99 wells.

HaHa, Ok Freddy, I'll take the significant any day of the week. What the hell am I doing up, its 0430am and I can't sleep. Bring on the announcement. Suppose I should'nt be sleeping technically, I am at work.

 

[Agentm]

i agree with you austrader..

onshore multi TCF is mind blowing..

i am certain the market has missed the potential, and i guess its only a short time now before it comes to realise the enormity of the potential here..

gas pipelines on the acerage in place! onshsore multi TCF, market totally able to absorb the gas immediately.. this is a dream well.. one in a million..

each day more and more rumours, and each day the rumours seem to become fact.. still trying to understand when the penny will drop..

for me, my dream of a secondary was rewarded.. this primary is becoming a monster.. if the word around is carrying any truth to it, then we are in for an amazing month..

today is going to be a very very interesting day indeed in my view..

kevro.. dont need to lose any sleep,, i think sugarloaf is going only one way now!!