ADI - Adelphi Energy

Agentm · 7 October 2009

jancha said:
Finally ADI starting to see a bit of blue sky. Up around 14c without too many sellers looking positive.
Sold out of WDR when i should held longer. I know they have nothing to do with this thread but it would be nice to know how & what are the tell tale signs (if any) of when to sell.
Like WDR they had a retrace to 39c and have now jumped up to 70c with no apparent news.
In your case Agentm would be pleased with the rewards with your constant research finally starting to pay off but a what point would you exit?

i would think that 50% rise is just a small run up.. its old territory was .30 and its very hard to justify the sp being below that now that so much is being said about the sugarkane.

i know leasing is going through the roof atm,, with $2000 - $3000 being mentioned.. i know landowners getting many times what conoco paid a year ago..

i invested for an outcome, so when adi open up all the wells i will re assess

imho the sugarkane is worth $2 to adi once the wells are up and running, and i think adi will look for other opportunities once the yemen cash arrives..

many more green days to come imho.. cant see the downside on the share atm..

Simon29 · 7 October 2009

AgentM,

Thank you for all of the research you've done into this stock. I've been lurking around for quite a while now, looking for an undervalued stock to enter. I did so with ADI at 7c and then some more at 8c and am now enjoying the ride like everybody else!

Are you still accumulating at these levels? I'm thinking of buying some more..if 30c is the likely next stable point, 14c would seem cheap!

jancha · 7 October 2009

Agentm said:
i would think that 50% rise is just a small run up.. its old territory was .30 and its very hard to justify the sp being below that now that so much is being said about the sugarkane.

i know leasing is going through the roof atm,, with $2000 - $3000 being mentioned.. i know landowners getting many times what conoco paid a year ago..

i invested for an outcome, so when adi open up all the wells i will re assess

imho the sugarkane is worth $2 to adi once the wells are up and running, and i think adi will look for other opportunities once the yemen cash arrives..

many more green days to come imho.. cant see the downside on the share atm..

I like your confidence in the company & hear what your saying agentm. You've done a lot of the ground work on this ADI thread & deserve the credit on it. Well done.

jestex12 · 7 October 2009

AgentM deserves the praises he is getting. Since joining this thread my knowledge of the Eagleford has increased 10 fold due in most part to AgentM's research and 24/7 efforts. There have been those who have doubted and critized AgentM's information but for some reason continue creaping back to this thread. Finally, the information AgentM has been so gracious to share is coming to past. Here's to AgentM and his on the spot invaluable research.

Agentm · 7 October 2009

Simon29 said:
AgentM,

Thank you for all of the research you've done into this stock. I've been lurking around for quite a while now, looking for an undervalued stock to enter. I did so with ADI at 7c and then some more at 8c and am now enjoying the ride like everybody else!

Are you still accumulating at these levels? I'm thinking of buying some more..if 30c is the likely next stable point, 14c would seem cheap!

hey simon

i doubled up when trojan and a few others exited and forced the sp down to .06

i know a lot of holders who did the same

the old stomping ground of .30 is where adi used to sit, and imho what it has to offer today is way better than back then, with free wells coming and working capital, imho i am expecting a retrace to those levels myself.

jancha said:
I like your confidence in the company & hear what your saying agentm. You've done a lot of the ground work on this ADI thread & deserve the credit on it. Well done.

thanks jancha

adobee · 7 October 2009

adobee said:
Dumped it yesterday... left the profits in to run.. (which are f.all)..
Will revisit if some news comes out and has positive affect... from buying before last announcement doesnt seem like it will be to hard to pick up on before hand..

Just my luck.. as usual exit just before the prices starts to go crazy !!
Good luck to those holders i think there will be some good news on the cards shortly

Agentm · 7 October 2009

adobee said:
Just my luck.. as usual exit just before the prices starts to go crazy !!
Good luck to those holders i think there will be some good news on the cards shortly

adobee

if adi have 7tcf potential in ground, and there are 3 laterals to be immediately put on production and 3 further wells to be drilled free carried, its most likely that the sp will go back to the historical safe regions of pre the crisis, and pre the massive sell off by the distressed major holders..

.30 is where it traded when it had potential and no production, now it has a far better understanding of potential and an immediate program of works that are being undertaken by TCEI/hilcorp.. production at commercial levels is very much what adi is about to explore in a big way on both levels of the sugarkane, chalks and eagleford..

my view is that the jvp will run back up to those historical points again, this time adi will have $6 mill in the bank and can also look at further aquisitions.

i know you bailed, so your recommendation was to sell, but i think you may have over looked the immediate plans before adi atm.

still to come in the days to come

$6 mill cash.. not yet factored in to the adi sp - which imho will have a positive impact on the sp very near term

Completion of the first lateral- which also has a big impact on the sp, both prior to the lateral being completed and post completion

post that hilcorp have 10 wells planned, and still have 2 more laterals in the chalks and eagleford to complete for production. all for late 2009/2010

i cant be critical of the way you trade, everyone has entry and exit strategies, but can i ask why you overlooked the immediate plans of adi, do you think they are not potentially company changing events in the next few weeks?

a good friend of mine was busily buying today into the jvp.. i think there is plenty of upside in this one and my view is strong on the hold and a strong buy also.. not at all seeing adi as a sell imho

my view on the sugarkane is $2 at a minimum to the adi share

dyor and all the best..

Miner · 7 October 2009

Agentm said:
adobee

if adi have 7tcf potential in ground, and there are 3 laterals to be immediately put on production and 3 further wells to be drilled free carried, its most likely that the sp will go back to the historical safe regions of pre the crisis, and pre the massive sell off by the distressed major holders..

.30 is where it traded when it had potential and no production, now it has a far better understanding of potential and an immediate program of works that are being undertaken by TCEI/hilcorp.. production at commercial levels is very much what adi is about to explore in a big way on both levels of the sugarkane, chalks and eagleford..

my view is that the jvp will run back up to those historical points again, this time adi will have $6 mill in the bank and can also look at further aquisitions.

i know you bailed, so your recommendation was to sell, but i think you may have over looked the immediate plans before adi atm.

still to come in the days to come

$6 mill cash.. not yet factored in to the adi sp - which imho will have a positive impact on the sp very near term

Completion of the first lateral- which also has a big impact on the sp, both prior to the lateral being completed and post completion

post that hilcorp have 10 wells planned, and still have 2 more laterals in the chalks and eagleford to complete for production. all for late 2009/2010

i cant be critical of the way you trade, everyone has entry and exit strategies, but can i ask why you overlooked the immediate plans of adi, do you think they are not potentially company changing events in the next few weeks?

a good friend of mine was busily buying today into the jvp.. i think there is plenty of upside in this one and my view is strong on the hold and a strong buy also.. not at all seeing adi as a sell imho

my view on the sugarkane is $2 at a minimum to the adi share

dyor and all the best..

Hi Agentm

If I take your word again and sugarkane background lifts ADI to $2 and I still hold the share then my 6.4 cents investment (To be frank I am the same person who bought GCR at 4.5 cents and lost many $$$ , bought ANZ at $25 and sold at $13). Now the return from ADI (and hopefully RAW in near future) will pay off my mortgage if I hold ADI until $2 price.

I saw what you said and what happened. I like your guts, knowledge, confidence and courage. You have shown me a dream so far to stick to the outcome . Now should I see my dream to bear real fruits ?

estseon · 8 October 2009

Miner,

Only you know your own pain threshold. My personal rule is that I should sell when the pain of seeing the share price halve is likely to exceed the joy of seeing it double. Each to his own.

ADI at this price is almost a lottery ticket except that the cash & receivables are worth about 4 cents.

Usually with small explorers there is the risk of dusters. Neither TCEI not COP (next door) has failed to find HCs that flow. The problems encountered have been engineering: it's very hot down there and the natural fractures provide bursts of pressure. They drilled under-pressured and had all kinds of problems. COP lit up Texas one evening, I heard. They have also spent time and money on learning how to fracture the rock but there is more knowledge and experience now. TCEI is a partner with COP on the neighbouring acreage in Live Oak and so, one assumes, has information on what's going on.

The quandary (sell/hold) for me will be later, when the first results are through. But my spreadsheet tells me that the arithmetic for the reserves talked about could translate into a net asset per share of $4 although the company would not necessarily be priced at NAV.

If there's volume and the price is rising then there must be buying. Nobody would go to the bother of buying into a company with variable liquidity unless he had the hope of multiplying his money. So watch what other people do if you're not certain. It's the buying by others that will make you your profit.

There has been talk of the wells having a commercial life of up to 20 years.

Agentm · 8 October 2009

Miner said:
Hi Agentm

If I take your word again and sugarkane background lifts ADI to $2 and I still hold the share then my 6.4 cents investment (To be frank I am the same person who bought GCR at 4.5 cents and lost many $$$ , bought ANZ at $25 and sold at $13). Now the return from ADI (and hopefully RAW in near future) will pay off my mortgage if I hold ADI until $2 price.

I saw what you said and what happened. I like your guts, knowledge, confidence and courage. You have shown me a dream so far to stick to the outcome . Now should I see my dream to bear real fruits ?

if the eagleford flows, conservative inground value would be attributed to adi during the course of the infill wells, so $2 a share would be given, if it didnt i think a whole bunch of us would band together and make a cash bid for the company and delist it, then live off the profits for the rest of our lives

still waiting for the yemen cash announcement, which i feel is the next big news stop for adi..

early october was promised,..

Agentm · 9 October 2009

things are moving along i hear in texas..

tcei and hilcorp are running along pretty quick

its likely the program could be advancing ahead of schedule on some wells

adi are a bit more like a passenger in terms of the timings, so a lot that was said in the announcements recently should be looked at closely

"The wells will be stimulated using a fracture design that is based upon recent operations within the Eagle Ford trend as well as taking account of the specific nature of the Sugarkane field. TCEI has advised that the major part of the work program is likely to start in November, subject to the availability of rigs and equipment. In preparation for the fracture stimulation operations, shallow water wells will be drilled and holding pits will be dug at each well
location. This work has commenced at the Weston -1H well.

Prior to November, a rig will be mobilised to the Kowalik -1H well location to attempt to pull the slotted liner which was originally deployed in the horizontal open hole of this well. If successful the rig will then run and cement a conventional liner and the well will be fracture stimulated in similar fashion to that planned for the other two horizontal wells. If the slotted
liner is unable to be recovered, it is likely that an acid stimulation will be attempted on the well. This alternative treatment has been successfully applied locally within the Austin Chalk."

also

In addition, planning has commenced for a 2010 drilling program as part of the recently announced farm-in deal, with the first wells drilled in this program likely to be within the Sugarloaf AMI.

imho there needs to be some consideration that these events recently posted with the asx are indeed materialising in karnes county

imho the plans are done, the frac designs done and the preparation works are in full swing for all the above..

looking good for plenty of news in the very near future

Agentm · 10 October 2009

conocophillips put in a new permit for their sugarkane field

this time it is on the mcmullen live oak county border way east of the kunde wells, and imho on the far eastern fringe of their leases..

http://webapps.rrc.state.tx.us/DP/d...ery=Y&name=PLOMERO+RANCH+&univDocNo=485803154

i hear there is a workover unit on kowalik circulating and lubricating the slotted liner in readiness to pull the liner out.

things are advancing fast on the 3 laterals. there will be no stopping tcei from immediate action in stimulating and fracing these three laterals in the very near term once they have the dams in place and the water wells drilled..

november is mentioned as a point in time when things can happen, its remotely possible that before then the ops can commence..

cheers

martyfar · 10 October 2009

Many thanks to all the contributors on this thread, and particular thanks to Agentm for his generosity in sharing his research and his knowledge

With the fracs on the three laterals now confirmed, can anyone offer an opinion on whether a lateral off the vertical well Sugarloaf 1 is a possibility ??

Hatchy · 11 October 2009

Martyfar - Go back through this thread and you'll see a video posted of what a lateral drill involves - should answer your question.

:bananasmi

Agentm · 13 October 2009

martyfar said:
Many thanks to all the contributors on this thread, and particular thanks to Agentm for his generosity in sharing his research and his knowledge

With the fracs on the three laterals now confirmed, can anyone offer an opinion on whether a lateral off the vertical well Sugarloaf 1 is a possibility ??

they are buying out old wells in the chalks in gonzales and reentering into the eagleford with them

doing a lateral in the sugarloaf 1 well is not out of the question at all

great to see a permit by conocophillips looking at the furtherest westerly point of their acreages also

imho there is plenty happening on the ground at the wells to demonstrate its seriously going ahead in a hurry

jancha · 14 October 2009

Agentm said:
they are buying out old wells in the chalks in gonzales and reentering into the eagleford with them

doing a lateral in the sugarloaf 1 well is not out of the question at all

great to see a permit by conocophillips looking at the furtherest westerly point of their acreages also

imho there is plenty happening on the ground at the wells to demonstrate its seriously going ahead in a hurry

Hi Agentm
Noticed a lot of activity with BCC. Do you know where Lee County is in relationship to ADI grounds and what are your thoughts on BCC?

Agentm · 15 October 2009

jancha said:
Hi Agentm
Noticed a lot of activity with BCC. Do you know where Lee County is in relationship to ADI grounds and what are your thoughts on BCC?

hey jancha

its a little o/t.. but i did make some comments on them a while ago regarding my opinion on their management and in particular the bhp level of remuneration..

when your a small cap explorer and the gas price hits the wall, its one sure fire way to decimate a company imho

i noticed they recently resurrected a very difficult well that blindsided the market, it got a bit of a run, which would be great for long term holders and anyone clever enough to see it and get in..

i have studied and researched their lee county plans.. i am not sure of what to make of it atm. earlier trends indicated the eagleford trend fell short of their county, but more recent ones are changing my view on it..

i dont have them on my watch list but had them for a while on watch, i hope they make it but i consider their management, as well qualified as it is, to be very eager for monetary reward which heavily impacts revenue available for exploration imho. but should they get through with lee county it may change things.

sorry about long reply.. its way o/t.. but i am real comfortable being invested smack in the middle of the conocophilips sugarkane play they so cleverly snared with tcei... imho its got more short term upside than anything else atm.. in a few weeks the wells get stimulated, maybe earlier.. and if they demonstrate what all the other wells are, its going to be hard seeing adi stay in low teens, imho its quite easy for a share to go back to its .30's range in quick fashion with any sign of success..the AUT and eka indications are that they are prepared to talk it up real big. it will impact on the adi also by default.. adi is certainly out trading the other two atm bigtime. in the past the heavy trading on adi with news on the positive always brought the sp up leaps and bounds..

fscmark · 15 October 2009

Hey guys, I just registered here after reding this thread and what you guys have to say about the Eagle Ford Shale. I currently work for Halliburton and am being sent to the area from Bossier ( haynesville ) area to frac. Just 3 months ago we were sent to Bossier to help with the frac crews here because of the haynesville popularity. Now it seems Halliurton is focusing its attention to the Eagle Ford. So looks like we will be busy in that area for a while. Lots of good info here guys!

jestex12 · 15 October 2009

Welcome fscmark,

I noticed halliburton was starting to lick there chops regarding the Eagleford.

http://www.halliburton.com/ps/default.aspx?navid=1614&pageid=3027

Anyhow welcome this thread is imho the leading source for all things Eagleford and much of the credit goes to AgentM.

fscmark · 15 October 2009

yah I noticed agentm has alot of useful information. Right now we are hearing Halliburton will be splitting up its frac horsepower evenly between Pennsylvania, Haynesville and EagleFord. We currently have a 16 stage round the clock frac starting this sunday on the briscoe-nunley. I'll let ya know how that goes.

ADI - Adelphi Energy

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