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In first quarter 2025
In first quarter 2025Just a note;
Was just looking at my portfolio and wanted an exact figure on the ~% that is invested in equities outside of Australia.
That figure after breaking down the components of VDBA and WIRE and adding the other straight international exposures sat at 33.77%
While I assess the strategy of this portfolio looking forward, I believe it to be prudent to get this international equity position to at least 40% in the first quarter of 2024. I do have a domestic bias and am resource heavy, comfortable to be at a 40/60 split.
Cheers,
Bossmans.
first off , China has the ability to make that data anything it wants it to be ( not just deceive with the calculations )Oh did you see China hit its 5% growth targetI think we will see this flow through to resources in the coming months as a rotation from Australian Financials into the resource sector hits.
To hot? China is in a deflationary state, the hotter China is the better.first off , China has the ability to make that data anything it wants it to be ( not just deceive with the calculations )
IMO that is still too hot for the current global economy , i would prefer it was around 4% , that still leaves plenty of room for growth and to smooth bottle-necks at home and in friendly nations
sure growth while many national economies shrink , but not by 5% it will still growth plenty of market-share @ 4% growth
ALSO a mining investment downturn is well overdue , sure some commodities are just warming up ( like uranium ) but overall rising production costs should keep a lid on green/brown-field developments
China stop growing ( near term ) probably not , grow more slowly ( near term ) that is what i would preferTo hot? China is in a deflationary state, the hotter China is the better.
A big part of Asia under performance has been on fears chinas economy would stop growing.
I do agree, it’s wise to take figures with a grain of salt
the trap with tariffs is IF you have a fairly competitive rival ( say within 15% ) that is locally based/home-grown , tariffs may helpEOW UPDATE
Happy Australia Day, just a short one (without screenshots, posting from my phone).
Current Total Return: 11.61%
Lagging the total return ASX200 but beating the ASX by ~1% on capital gains.
Watching the economic climate and China closely. I dont think we will see Trump actually put tariffs on China. And if he does they won’t be at the rate he promised.
watching the corporate climate (from inside a big4 bank) I am seeing that the return to office drive is coming.
New jobs require 3days in office in contrast to 1-2 6 days prior, and more conversation around subtly bringing back to office work. Expect we will see 4 days by the end of the year.
Looking at commercial real estate direct exposure. I keep going back and forth on this, but I think it’s where it makes sense for me to put the next packet of funds.
Looking to increase property exposure (currently about 5% underweight, sitting at around 16% of total portfolio). Will increase holdings by ~4-5% and will look for direct exposure. Will update when I find a shortlist I like to watch.
Onward and upwards
I dont think it will drive many resignations outside of those that decided to relocate 2+ hours out of the city during covid-19.i suspect the 'return to the office ' drive is one way management is reducing staff ( assuming more than 5% will resign/retire )
Do not go direct unless you really value trouble and gambling.the trap with tariffs is IF you have a fairly competitive rival ( say within 15% ) that is locally based/home-grown , tariffs may help
if on the other hand there is no local equal , OR the imports have a 50% to 70% advantage tariffs might be a self-inflicted wound , unless of course the tariffs are just another way to ultimately tax the consumer ( because you desperately need more tax revenue )
i suspect the 'return to the office ' drive is one way management is reducing staff ( assuming more than 5% will resign/retire )
i am probably too heavy in REITs but i am very picky in where i put new cash , and i am using them as bond substitutes
whether yes or no ( in your case ) it might be timely to ask a professional on the flaws and bonuses in direct real estate , to help decide
cheers
Do not go direct unless you really value trouble and gambling.
Life is goo short for dealing with ****..but could be just me, many are happy managing RE all over the place, taking care of leaking taps and defaulting tenants
You gef the idea: if you proceed, know what yiu ard looking for
time will tell , but once you have set up a home office/workplace , starting your own very small business becomes an option ( especially if you net-worked outside of the previous job )I dont think it will drive many resignations outside of those that decided to relocate 2+ hours out of the city during covid-19.
The labour market is tightening especially for roles that allow work from home. If you are unskilled (in the sense you perform transactional activities/complete a pre-determined process) then your ability to find equivalent work that accommodates large amounts of time working from home is increasingly becoming rare.
I am also a big believer in return to office, I go in 4-5 days a week by choice and it has led me to be far more successful then my peers. If your staff refuse to go into the office and they aren't highly skilled then in my opinion these individuals are no different to an equivalent offshore agent at 30% the cost.
Forgot to add I am really excited to see ASX:AAL quarterlies and whether it will justify the heightened share price. Increased approximately 75% since IPO.
All good with thatI should of been clearer - I mean direct ASX exposure haha. I am not in a financial position to afford the risk of real estate directly in this market.
Current exposure is a broad based ASX REIT Index Fund
i already had 'broad-based ' REITs , for me now is the time to be focused and fussy ( pedantic if you prefer )I should of been clearer - I mean direct ASX exposure haha. I am not in a financial position to afford the risk of real estate directly in this market.
Current exposure is a broad based ASX REIT Index Fund
Would you be able to provide some hypothetical scenarios? I'm trying to get an idea of where this could go wrong. I know you mentioned confiscate super, but was curious of a rule change that could negatively affect someone.I definitely would not put any voluntary contribution into super if you are in your 20s. Even though there are great tax benefits for doing so 40 years from now is a long time away and the fiscally irresponsible government could keep changing the rules or outright nationalize/confiscate people's superannuation by then. Sure for somebody in there 50s it might make sense to make voluntary contributions but if you are in your 20s relying on the government not to do dumb things for another 40+ years is a huge gamble.
what could go wrong ?Would you be able to provide some hypothetical scenarios? I'm trying to get an idea of where this could go wrong. I know you mentioned confiscate super, but was curious of a rule change that could negatively affect someone.
Ah ok that makes sense.what could go wrong ?
the Government's compulsion to keep fiddling , trying to plan for say 40 years of saving is tough enough without the rules changing frequently
SO FAR , there have been moves by the government to coerce funds into extra investments in 'clean energy , and ESG stuff , an attack on franking credits , what will they try next , your guess is as good as mine
i see some folks ( overseas ) tried to introduce a tax on unrealized capital gains .. that is a very slippery slope if they try that
the Government was forgotten ( or ignored ) that your Super is YOUR compulsory savings , from YOUR wages/salary
the government MIGHT freeze payouts , limit payouts , make withdrawals condition , direct super investment into low yield investments ( or flawed investments )
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