ABS plans rejig after surprise jobs data

[Timmy]

After last week's stunning (and incredible) jobs data release:

"The nation's statistician will make changes to its labour market survey, a week after critics accused it of coming up with a "rogue number" for Australia's jobless rate." From SMH article here.

Could have been some intricate bureaucratic maneuvering going on !

 

[gfresh]

well if they hadn't slashed their budget, it probably would have helped

 

[Julia]

well if they hadn't slashed their budget, it probably would have helped

Exactly. Heaven knows how many rubbery stats are being inappropriate used by various government departments, including Treasury.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Exactly. Heaven knows how many rubbery stats are being inappropriate used by various government departments, including Treasury.

Spot on Julia rubbery stats alright.
What absolute rot!

Like the famous quote:

"There are three types of lies,
Lies,
Damned Lies
&
Statistics"

Mark Twain

 

[dhukka]

Stunning that the government can funnel billions into FHB grants to prop up house prices and by implication they hope unemployment but they can't afford a few hundred thousand to hire a couple of people to broaden their surveys to measure employment.

 

[Temjin]

They should use this job data instead.

http://e1.newcastle.edu.au/coffee/

The real rate for Feb 2009 is 11.2%. I'm eagely waiting for their April result to see how it compares with the "official" one.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Stunning that the government can funnel billions into FHB grants to prop up house prices and by implication they hope unemployment but they can't afford a few hundred thousand to hire a couple of people to broaden their surveys to measure employment.

You have hit the nail on the head Dhukka.

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/880/

With the ABS survey a person needs to be able to start work in the 'reference week' — an unnecessary restriction!

In addition, if a person works only an hour in the survey week they are classified as employed — a nonsense!

The concern is the increasing number of under-employed - those people working only a few hours (many part-time workers and contractors) who want (need) more work. The ABS do not measure these people, the April Roy Morgan under-employment estimate was up 174,000 to 874,000 ‘real’ people!

In addition there are today many more people working full time but only 2, 3 or 4 days a days a week - the ABS say these people are employed!

The ABS survey was designed in the 1950s - before there were many ‘contractors’ or ‘part-time’ workers, so the ABS survey produces questionable figures on the ‘real’ unemployed and under-employed.

The ABS survey re-interviews the same household over 8 months eight times. The sample would 'quickly' become employment ‘experts!'

Most of the ABS household ‘re-interviews’ measuring people’s employment status are conducted by ‘telephone.’ In the late 1970s, when the current ABS survey was implemented in Australia, all re-interviews would have been conducted by ‘personal face-to-face’ interviews — fewer people than now had telephones!

To the best of our knowledge there is no ABS ‘paper’ showing the effect of changing the ‘re-interview’ method from ‘personal face-to-face’ to ‘telephone.’ For ‘critics’ to maintain the Australian ABS employment is ‘identical’ to overseas surveys is questionable!

How does the ABS replace households who move or refuse to continue to be part of the survey?
We believe a very difficult task!

No ****, Sherlock----->