AAM - A1 Minerals

[alphman]

*** BIG BUYER ALERT ***

3,163,452 @ 0.275.

Sorry, but I'm a bit on the bored side today...

 

[alphman]

Nice finish today. FPO's up 15%, Options up 40% on no news. Feasibility results due by end of the year. Me thinks it could be early going by today's interest.

The big buyer is still lurking. "He" missed the boat this morning with a reduced order at $0.29 (approx 1.5m). The order sat there for most of the day at $0.31 where he managed to get a small part of his order filled. Currently, the order is sitting at $0.33 after a chase in the last 15 minutes of trading.

Should provide a cushion for any retracement tomorrow. If we see another strong opening, then giddy-up!

 

[Gar]

well guys I emailed John Williams last thursday and asked him when he expects the feasibility study to be complete, this is the response I got on friday:

"Thank you for your interest in A1 Minerals.
The current FS is all but complete I hope to have news on this very soon.
As I have previously said we expect to be mining before the end of year."

ha, what a load that turned out to be :

Lets hope that these talks with 3rd parties turn up something good, I'm gettng tired of waiting for little johnny to pull his finger out.

are any of you guys still hanging in there?

 

[Nicks]

Im topping up. Gold is on a steady path upward and its when they are newbies like this company is that you can make some great gains.

I bought in similariliy with AVO when they were at this price and this young - now look! Im very happy and I see the same in AAM.

Good luck to all the holders, it will come but getting in when its moving up is too late.

 

[Gar]

too true, I've been grabbing a few at 170 - 175 but I also have a large chunk at 215 .

Pisa's post on HC makes a lot of sense to me

the south is high grade, nearby the cre plant. Either they agreed on toll treatment, or aam will sell the south to CRE.

It is my firm believe that cre wants to buy the south and are doing tricks like giving unreasonable toll treatment offers etc...

They have lot's of money in the bank. They really need the high grade deposits of AAM. AAM, on the other hand, cannot go forward start mining whilst discussing the sale of the south. If AAM starts mining, cap raising, buying of mining equipment etc is on the agenda... If this has been started, there is no way to sell the south to CRE. So time is running out for CRE although they may believe they are in the forehand with the cash in the bank.. There gold production is bleeding, if they do not move the cash will be burnt with their poor deposits...

So all in all my view on the current situation:

1. I'm holding - 1 mio oz is there, plenty of new oz will be added in 2008
2. AAM will say the south to CRE but not for cheap
3. Narnoo Gold will be developed with the money from sale of the south, very big potential here
4. AAM is at current prices a steal.

It would explain the delays & lack action but of course its purely speculation

either way I'm glad to see more exploration happening while things are being mulled over

 

[Nicks]

I re-read the Resource Stocks article from Nov and the more I think about it the more this is a sleeping giant.

They have a JORC compliant 1Moz gold resource (similar to AVO infact - market cap approx half a Billion) which is reasonably shallow.

Ive summarised it in this simple mathematical equation: POG - Costs of production = Mega Bucks for AAM

I mean its as simple as that isnt it??? seriously am I missing something here?? This doesnt even take into account the main focus of the article which is its Nickel and Copper discoveries, or the fact that Gold is on a steady and reliable long term uptrend (with all the fundamentals pointing to this continuing).

 

[Gar]

touche, I re-read that article the other day myself

I cannot see the current price being justified at all considering the quality of their ground holdings.

All it comes down to IMO is that people are impatient and worrysome.

Management have been making half baked estimates on when they hope to be going into production and then when that time is delayed people jump ship. Our problem is that it doesnt take many of these buggers to move the price a long way because the stock is so thinly traded but we'll have our day eventually Nicks, I'm sure

 

[Jigalong]

Nicks and Gar,

Are you aware that the Resource Stocks article would have been paid for by AAM.

Not that it is a bad thing to showcase your company.

I bought in for the second time last week at .175 . I noticed on two of the days, the price went up to .19 and was then whacked.

As one of you said, the stock is so thinly traded, any decent order pushes it all over the place.

Good luck,

Jigalong.

 

[Nicks]

yes paid for no doubt, but they can't lie about facts.

I try to avoid the glamourisation that many of these small caps like to put on, such as in this article, and stick to the fundmentals... the facts. Ultimately it is these which work the company.

AAM has what looks like great fundamentals, mainly, the POG, their Resource, their Market Cap, their solvency (cash).

Check it out for yourself, do your homework and see what im talking about. It would rank this as significantly undervalued compared to its peers. There isnt any reason why its such a low price that I can seem to find - so I figure things will balance sooner or later and thats when the rewards for such calculations and patience come in.

 

[jman2007]

yes paid for no doubt, but they can't lie about facts.

I try to avoid the glamourisation that many of these small caps like to put on, such as in this article, and stick to the fundmentals... the facts. Ultimately it is these which work the company.

AAM has what looks like great fundamentals, mainly, the POG, their Resource, their Market Cap, their solvency (cash).

Check it out for yourself, do your homework and see what im talking about. It would rank this as significantly undervalued compared to its peers. There isnt any reason why its such a low price that I can seem to find - so I figure things will balance sooner or later and thats when the rewards for such calculations and patience come in.

According to their Dec Quaterly cashflow and activities report, they only have $5.9M cash on hand, so they're not exactly cashed-up to the hilt.

They also have no gold processing facility of their own, and without a major investor coming onboard or a JV with a cashed up partner, imo their best chance will be reaching an agreement with an operator in the area to toll-treat their ore.

Nicks, I think you're seriously over-simplifying things by thinking all it takes to make "mega bucks" is to dig the ore out of the ground and process it. I believe the ground has been worked over before, and that there are many shafts dotted around the area. If these underground workings are flooded, that is going to be a major headache for the development of the project. I'll need to double-check this info, but I'm pretty sure that is more or less correct.

I have many overseas's and Aust Au miners/explorers on my watchlist, but these guys don't appear on it.

jman

 

[Nicks]

According to their Dec Quaterly cashflow and activities report, they only have $5.9M cash on hand, so they're not exactly cashed-up to the hilt.

They also have no gold processing facility of their own, and without a major investor coming onboard or a JV with a cashed up partner, imo their best chance will be reaching an agreement with an operator in the area to toll-treat their ore.

Nicks, I think you're seriously over-simplifying things by thinking all it takes to make "mega bucks" is to dig the ore out of the ground and process it. I believe the ground has been worked over before, and that there are many shafts dotted around the area. If these underground workings are flooded, that is going to be a major headache for the development of the project. I'll need to double-check this info, but I'm pretty sure that is more or less correct.

I have many overseas's and Aust Au miners/explorers on my watchlist, but these guys don't appear on it.

jman

Hey jman,

yes I might have oversimplified, but Im still comfortable with the fundamentals.

Curious to your answers on a few things:

1. 5.9m cash is pretty good IMO for a company in this business and market cap (16M atm!). Can you explain why you disagree?
2. Re: flooded etc - look forward to the double checking - let us know. Its a big call to say its flooded otherwise without substantiation.
3. Re facility: research it some more, they have plans for this, and their location is well suited if they do come to an agreement.
4. Re your watchlist - thats a massive call. You imply that because they are not on your watchlist that this matters, thats all. There are many good companies that arent on my watchlist, I dont make such a massive statement implying that if a company is not on my watchlist that they arent worth watching.
5. Can you give us any of your experience, qualifications, recent success, or the actual watchlist to make this relevant? for all we know your watchlist stinks.
6. Have you ever traded AAM?
7. Do you disagree with their au findings (which look good)?
8. If they are not on your watchlist, its strange as you seem to be watching them! lol

Cheers

 

[exgeo]

Notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder from Rand Merchant Bank. I guess this explains the recent sp weakness. Wonder if they know something we don't, or if they were just a forced seller due to something not related to AAM? Speaking for myself, I've been buying up at 16.5c lately.

 

[Nicks]

I think their JORC resource is 2.4g/t au right? from what i've been reading this is quite good these days.

Its certainly a higher resource than some of the other mid tier hopefuls whose share prices are soaring.

 

[Gar]

Notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder from Rand Merchant Bank. I guess this explains the recent sp weakness. Wonder if they know something we don't, or if they were just a forced seller due to something not related to AAM? Speaking for myself, I've been buying up at 16.5c lately.

Hmmmmmn yes..... its a bit hard to interpret without any more info


I'm still holding at these levels though

 

[jman2007]

Hey jman,

yes I might have oversimplified, but Im still comfortable with the fundamentals.

Curious to your answers on a few things:

1. 5.9m cash is pretty good IMO for a company in this business and market cap (16M atm!). Can you explain why you disagree?
2. Re: flooded etc - look forward to the double checking - let us know. Its a big call to say its flooded otherwise without substantiation.
3. Re facility: research it some more, they have plans for this, and their location is well suited if they do come to an agreement.
4. Re your watchlist - thats a massive call. You imply that because they are not on your watchlist that this matters, thats all. There are many good companies that arent on my watchlist, I dont make such a massive statement implying that if a company is not on my watchlist that they arent worth watching.
5. Can you give us any of your experience, qualifications, recent success, or the actual watchlist to make this relevant? for all we know your watchlist stinks.
6. Have you ever traded AAM?
7. Do you disagree with their au findings (which look good)?
8. If they are not on your watchlist, its strange as you seem to be watching them! lol

Cheers

Happy to reply to your questions,

1.) What does $5.9M have to do with their MC? Last time I checked, drilling companies still charge the same rate per meter of RC or diamond drilling whether it's for a multi-million dollar outfit or a grassroots play, and in this game $5.9M is nothing. How do I know? I work in this game.
2.) Re flooding, oh yes, I'll definitely be checking that out. My colleagues know the Brightstar project well, and I've driven by it many times.
3.) What plans? Do you mean coming to an agreement with another party to treat their ore? Well that's what I said in the first place.
4.) Don't put words in my mouth and imply things I never said. I said they are not on MY watchlist. What other people have on theirs is up to them.
5.) It sounds like you're wanting me to flash you a detectives badge for id and give you my life story. If I was a geo working in the Au sector would that satisfy you?
6.) Irrelevant.
7.) So explain to me their findings Nick. What depth of mineralisation? What is the strip ratio? Is the ore refractory? What is the host rock? Is it open along strike? Is the mineralisation structurally controlled? A grade of 2.4g/t tells me very little.
8.) Irrelevant.

jman

 

[Nicks]

Happy to reply to your questions,
*
1.) What does $5.9M have to do with their MC?* Last time I checked, drilling companies still charge the same rate per meter of RC or diamond drilling whether it's for a multi-million dollar outfit or a grassroots play, and in this game $5.9M is nothing. How do I know? I work in this game.
2.) Re flooding, oh yes, I'll definitely be checking that out.* My colleagues know the Brightstar project well, and I've driven by it many times.
3.) What plans? Do you mean coming to an agreement with another party to treat their ore? Well that's what I said in the first place.
4.) Don't put words in my mouth and imply things I never said. I said they are not on MY watchlist. What other people have on theirs is up to them.
5.) It sounds like you're wanting me to flash you a detectives badge for id and give you my life story. If I was a geo working in the Au sector would that satisfy you?
6.) Irrelevant.
7.) So explain to me their findings Nick. What depth of mineralisation? What is the strip ratio?* Is the ore refractory? What is the host rock? Is it open along strike? Is the mineralisation structurally controlled? A grade of 2.4g/t tells me very little.
8.) Irrelevant.

jman

Hi Jman, thanks for your responses. Think about the following:

1. Coming from a techie. Try coming from a business point of view. For what stage they are at $5.9 million is good. Its about having the liquid cash to cover immediatae costs and not getting into trouble with debt (some things we have seen alot of lately). You see Jman, in business development once you have a resource thats proven to be a reserve, you can then aquire much more capital much more easily to fund the project. Whats relevant is the NPV of the Project. Which is exactly the next stage for AAM to progress. Clearly you have Geo knowledge, but i'm curious - what financial management experience do you have in the industry? They all start out small cap don't forget, they don't start with 1 Billion dollars. Thats why the SP is what it is.

2. Flooding: look forward to your drive by to confirm. So then ASIC can investigate why AAM didnt release this info to the market. Seriously man you honestly think you can find out that its flooded with your drive by or 'friends', yet AAM can't?

3. So we agree thats a good option.

4. Why did you say it then? you said it. What was the point of the comment? I think its fair to ask as you gave no substance to the point. It just seemed like a Ramp to me (ramping can be negative too).

5. I know you are a geo, read your thread. Interestingly there are other geo's (exgeo) buying up this stock (even the major shareholders are full of Geos). You can argue techie fundamentals with them because I admit that I cannot to the degree you are purposefully flying geo technical terms at me. Business and financials however I can. I've run out of Gold Medals to give out but you'd probably argue the quality of the Medal anyway.

6. I take that as a yes (if not you would have gladly said seeming as you dont think this company's worth buying into). Its very relevant. People often want to talk down a stock after they have sold out to feel justification for their decision. But I don't expect you to come forward with this.

7. Much answered in Dec report (had you read it you would see this), but you are a Geo, how about being constructive here and you comment on these points (without Bias) rather than rant to us how knowledgeable you are and trying to prove you can out Geo tecchie me, which no doubt you can. Refer point 5 again.

8. Relevant yet again. You said they are not on your watchlist, but you are obviously watching them. Traded them have you?? Bought at 30c and forced to sell out at a stop loss or margin call?? (I don't expect you to admit to this, so a "no I didn't" or a "no I really didn't even though you won't believe me" will suffice). Refer point 6 again.


Im glad you answered the original points, but would rather you dont answer these and just think about them, else we will be going back and forward for ever Tit for Tat! Seriously dont get too touchy Jman. If your giong to make comments then be prepared to answer them and back up your position without getting so defensive. Honesty helps too.

Noone is denying that this is not a Blue Chip stock and there are variables and speculation. If more was proven this stock would be worth a lot more. The aim is that it will be proven and it will be worth a lot more!

Like I said at this stage I am very happy with the known fundamentals and overall current market conditions for this type of project. I think at these prices it represents excellent speculative value with the POG.

 

[exgeo]

Don't quite get the bit about "it's flooded". I think every open pit I've ever seen in WA which was not currently being mined had been flooded. Ironically even in the WA bush there's loads of water- it's just 10m below the surface, not not much use to man or beast (unless you have a windmill!). Flooded pits can be pumped out. The grade, well not bonanza stuff but given enough of it then I'm sure a quid could be made. Not a terrible grade for an open pit mine anyway. For me another bonus of this project is that most of it is on granted mining leases. This will simplify and speed up the beauracracy should they decide it's a go-er. They don't seem to have found the end of most of the deposits so it seems reasonable to assume that the total ounces will increase and some of the deeper hits in fresh rock are a lot higher than the average resource grade (14Mt @ 2.2g/t for 1MOz) so perhaps including these later on will bump the average grade as well as increasing total ounces. AAM is the 2nd cheapest gold explorer on a market cap./Oz basis out of the 80 companies or so that I keep track of. To save anyone emailing, the cheapest one is KAL, who I also hold. To put it into context, AAM's cap/Oz is about 1/4 that of Carrick CRK who also have a nice resource of about 3MOz (31.6Mt @ 3g/t). $5.9m seems like a reasonable amount of dough for a small explorer. It'll buy quite a lot of drilling anyway.

 

[jman2007]

Hi Jman, thanks for your responses. Think about the following:

1. Coming from a techie. Try coming from a business point of view. For what stage they are at $5.9 million is good. Its about having the liquid cash to cover immediatae costs and not getting into trouble with debt (some things we have seen alot of lately). You see Jman, in business development once you have a resource thats proven to be a reserve, you can then aquire much more capital much more easily to fund the project. Whats relevant is the NPV of the Project. Which is exactly the next stage for AAM to progress. Clearly you have Geo knowledge, but i'm curious - what financial management experience do you have in the industry? They all start out small cap don't forget, they don't start with 1 Billion dollars. Thats why the SP is what it is.

2. Flooding: look forward to your drive by to confirm. So then ASIC can investigate why AAM didnt release this info to the market. Seriously man you honestly think you can find out that its flooded with your drive by or 'friends', yet AAM can't?

3. So we agree thats a good option.

4. Why did you say it then? you said it. What was the point of the comment? I think its fair to ask as you gave no substance to the point. It just seemed like a Ramp to me (ramping can be negative too).

5. I know you are a geo, read your thread. Interestingly there are other geo's (exgeo) buying up this stock (even the major shareholders are full of Geos). You can argue techie fundamentals with them because I admit that I cannot to the degree you are purposefully flying geo technical terms at me. Business and financials however I can. I've run out of Gold Medals to give out but you'd probably argue the quality of the Medal anyway.

6. I take that as a yes (if not you would have gladly said seeming as you dont think this company's worth buying into). Its very relevant. People often want to talk down a stock after they have sold out to feel justification for their decision. But I don't expect you to come forward with this.

7. Much answered in Dec report (had you read it you would see this), but you are a Geo, how about being constructive here and you comment on these points (without Bias) rather than rant to us how knowledgeable you are and trying to prove you can out Geo tecchie me, which no doubt you can. Refer point 5 again.

8. Relevant yet again. You said they are not on your watchlist, but you are obviously watching them. Traded them have you?? Bought at 30c and forced to sell out at a stop loss or margin call?? (I don't expect you to admit to this, so a "no I didn't" or a "no I really didn't even though you won't believe me" will suffice). Refer point 6 again.


Im glad you answered the original points, but would rather you dont answer these and just think about them, else we will be going back and forward for ever Tit for Tat! Seriously dont get too touchy Jman. If your giong to make comments then be prepared to answer them and back up your position without getting so defensive. Honesty helps too.

Noone is denying that this is not a Blue Chip stock and there are variables and speculation. If more was proven this stock would be worth a lot more. The aim is that it will be proven and it will be worth a lot more!

Like I said at this stage I am very happy with the known fundamentals and overall current market conditions for this type of project. I think at these prices it represents excellent speculative value with the POG.

Nick, as amusing as your rants and accusations are, let me make a few points absolutely crystal clear to you:

1.) If your interpretation of "down ramping" is another member commenting that they don't have a particular company on their watchlist, then I feel sorry for you. I already clearly stated my position here i.e. I'm not convinced in their cash position, they don't have a processing facility of their own, and any agreement to toll-treat their ore will be subject to conditions imposed by the other party. That's why they aren't on my watchlist.

2.) I have never held, or currently hold AAM. As far as I am aware, ASF doesn't require people to hold the stock that they want to comment on. I find your explanation that I am somehow trying to force the price down, ridiculous and also rather offensive. I have never been in the business of "down ramping" stocks, and have always checked the veracity and accuracy of my comments before I make them. As an example, see Reece55's and my comments re the MTN JORC calculation on that thread if you don't believe me.

3.) My "friends" as you describe them, are actually other industry professionals with over 25+ years experience in Goldfields geology, independent consultants who have themselves carried out technical reviews of the Brighstar Project (esp the Alpha and Beta deposits), and other colleagues with extensive knowledge of local projects and ground conditions. While obviously not wanting to breach any confidentiality clauses, I think other members would benefit from additional information from people who are actually here on the ground, rather than rely soley on what they read on a PC in an air-conditioned office 2000km away. You can choose to believe what you want, and tbh I'm not really concerned what you think.

4.) Grow up and show some respect towards other ASF members, dead-set serious mate. Other people will always have a different opinion than yours. It happens on here all the time, just smile and accept it. It doesn't give you free reign to attack and question other people's motives (which most of the time will be genuine) every time someone says something that bends your nose out of shape. Have I questioned your motives re AAM considering the way the sp has gone?

Nick, if you can avoid lanching into another conspiracy theory and talk about this constructively, then by all means I'd be happy to hear it, otherwise don't bother.

jman

 

[jman2007]

Don't quite get the bit about "it's flooded". I think every open pit I've ever seen in WA which was not currently being mined had been flooded. Ironically even in the WA bush there's loads of water- it's just 10m below the surface, not not much use to man or beast (unless you have a windmill!). Flooded pits can be pumped out. The grade, well not bonanza stuff but given enough of it then I'm sure a quid could be made. Not a terrible grade for an open pit mine anyway. For me another bonus of this project is that most of it is on granted mining leases. This will simplify and speed up the beauracracy should they decide it's a go-er. They don't seem to have found the end of most of the deposits so it seems reasonable to assume that the total ounces will increase and some of the deeper hits in fresh rock are a lot higher than the average resource grade (14Mt @ 2.2g/t for 1MOz) so perhaps including these later on will bump the average grade as well as increasing total ounces. AAM is the 2nd cheapest gold explorer on a market cap./Oz basis out of the 80 companies or so that I keep track of. To save anyone emailing, the cheapest one is KAL, who I also hold. To put it into context, AAM's cap/Oz is about 1/4 that of Carrick CRK who also have a nice resource of about 3MOz (31.6Mt @ 3g/t). $5.9m seems like a reasonable amount of dough for a small explorer. It'll buy quite a lot of drilling anyway.

Yes, well depends on the local water table I suppose. I've been with rigs where we've hit water at 20m, other times at 100m. The Lancefield mine is a great example, 500K oz underground with around 20 levels of underground development which has been heavily affected by flooding. It is common to see this in many old workings and pits, and can greatly influence subsequent planning and development, but you wont find it being discussed in many ASX releases.

jman

 

[Gar]

Differences of opinions aside, I'm glad to hear any information you guys have got to share but keep your heads on guys, its not about being right or wrong its about identifying opportunities.


It's been good to see some positive volume action over the last couple of days (especially today!), the bargain hunters are starting to give us some nice buoyancy at 160 - 170