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A-REIT valuation model

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No offence taken coolcup. If I was providing comparative information on like for like A-REIT's to a paying subscriber base of clients as a basis for recommending buy/hold/sell positions I would make a point of segregating the A-REIT's in the manner that you suggest as well as looking more closely at the merits of identifying FFO and AFFO in respect of ROE as it is interpreted and applied in Australia. I doubt that I would include anticipated or speculative forecasted earnings or value growth as in my opinion they are estimates or forecasts of a future event that may not eventuate. However, the data I produce is basic readily available free material and I do it for the heck of it.

Cheers and best regards, it is always good to get a fresh perspective.
 
The A-REIT sector took another hike this week following on from the euphoria sweeping Europe and the U.S and most of the AOX. Some of the A-REIT's are now trading at 3 year highs well above their NTA values. Looking at some of the charts it is like watching a bubble swelling to the point it must break. The updated table for Weekending 8 February 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.400 1,961,278,430 0.2520 7.41% 0.2150 6.32% 13.49 3.46 1.73%
BWP 2.430 1,296,759,270 0.1340 5.51% 0.1350 5.56% 18.13 1.85 -31.35%
CFX 2.070 5,854,986,014 0.1442 6.97% 0.1310 6.33% 14.36 2.07 0.00%
CHC 3.700 1,105,132,084 0.0564 1.52% 0.1820 4.92% 65.60 2.13 -73.71%
CMW 0.885 1,084,602,044 0.0216 2.44% 0.0706 7.98% 40.97 0.67 -32.09%
CPA 1.130 2,652,113,857 0.1066 9.43% 0.0609 5.39% 10.60 1.15 1.74%
CQR 4.040 1,327,601,251 0.0324 0.80% 0.2610 6.46% 124.69 3.38 -19.53%
DXS 1.090 5,274,536,352 0.0375 3.44% 0.0535 4.91% 29.07 1.00 -9.00%
FKP 1.655 532,212,757 0.2940 17.76% 0.0000 0.00% 5.63 4.06 59.24%
GMG 4.700 7,997,902,129 0.2704 5.75% 0.1800 3.83% 17.38 2.54 -85.04%
GPT 3.880 6,855,126,091 0.1789 4.61% 0.1910 4.92% 21.69 3.65 -6.30%
IOF 3.120 1,915,828,069 0.1600 5.13% 0.1560 5.00% 19.50 3.14 0.64%
MGR 1.595 5,463,811,984 0.1220 7.65% 0.0640 4.01% 13.07 1.66 3.92%
SCP 1.645 961,009,000 0.1180 7.17% 0.1040 6.32% 13.94 1.58 -4.11%
SGP 3.410 7,511,063,654 0.2110 6.19% 0.2400 7.04% 16.16 3.68 7.34%
WDC 11.050 24,860,395,616 0.7322 6.63% 0.4895 4.43% 15.09 6.79 -62.74%
WRT 3.120 9,528,998,528 0.2690 8.62% 0.1765 5.66% 11.60 3.37 7.42%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

The table has been updated with the stock codes now providing a direct link to the corresponding thread within AussieStockForums. Some of the threads appear to receive more support than others which makes me wonder if there are a few opportunities going begging in the A-REIT sector. If anyone finds any "misdirected connections" please feel free to pm me rather than clutter the thread with posts about errors.
 
This week the majority of the shares in the A-REIT sector took a retrace from their recent highs. Many of them were trading at three year highs, above their NTA. This week there appeared to be a bit of a sell off by profit takers. The exception was SGP which opened at $3.36 on Monday but rapidly recovered through the day to $3.48. Tuesday saw heavy trading on sgp after the release of the annual report. While in previous weeks sgp lagged the rest of the A-REIT shares, this week saw sgp climb back to high $3.60's before closing out the week on $3.57. Looks like the market likes the new broom.

The reporting season is in full swing and some of the shares such as Dexus and GPT have actualy dropped off after posting good results with confidence for the future. Go figure, eh? The table for the closing prices weekending 15 February 2013 follows, some of the NTA values and Earnings values will be wrong but will be adjusted next week as and when I get time to extract the data from the reports and update the table:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.410 1,967,046,896 0.2520 7.39% 0.2150 6.30% 13.53 3.46 1.45%
BWP 2.300 1,227,385,317 0.1340 5.83% 0.1350 5.87% 17.16 1.85 -24.32%
CFX 2.070 5,854,986,014 0.1442 6.97% 0.1310 6.33% 14.36 2.07 0.00%
CHC 3.570 1,066,303,119 0.0564 1.58% 0.1820 5.10% 63.30 2.13 -67.61%
CMW 0.915 1,121,368,215 0.0216 2.36% 0.0706 7.72% 42.36 0.67 -36.57%
CPA 1.085 2,546,498,703 0.1066 9.82% 0.0609 5.61% 10.18 1.15 5.65%
CQR 3.880 1,275,022,983 0.0324 0.84% 0.2610 6.73% 119.75 3.38 -14.79%
DXS 1.040 5,032,585,143 0.0375 3.61% 0.0535 5.14% 27.73 1.00 -4.00%
FKP 1.535 493,623,312 0.2940 19.15% 0.0000 0.00% 5.22 4.06 62.19%
GMG 4.520 7,691,599,494 0.2704 5.98% 0.1800 3.98% 16.72 2.54 -77.95%
GPT 3.780 6,678,447,584 0.1789 4.73% 0.1910 5.05% 21.13 3.65 -3.56%
IOF 3.060 1,878,985,221 0.1600 5.23% 0.1560 5.10% 19.13 3.14 2.55%
MGR 1.545 5,292,532,612 0.1220 7.90% 0.0640 4.14% 12.66 1.66 6.93%
SCP 1.630 952,246,000 0.1180 7.24% 0.1040 6.38% 13.81 1.58 -3.16%
SGP 3.570 7,863,488,928 0.2110 5.91% 0.2400 6.72% 16.92 3.68 2.99%
WDC 10.970 24,680,410,851 0.7322 6.67% 0.4895 4.46% 14.98 6.79 -61.56%
WRT 3.040 9,284,665,233 0.2690 8.85% 0.1765 5.81% 11.30 3.37 9.79%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .
 
Bit of a hectic weekend didn't leave me much time to update the A-REIT Table. The following figures are for the closing prices as at 22 February 2013:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.480 2,007,426,158 0.3120 8.97% 0.2150 6.18% 11.15 3.46 -0.58%
BWP 2.280 1,216,712,401 0.1645 7.21% 0.1387 6.08% 13.86 1.87 -21.93%
CFX 2.040 5,770,131,144 0.1442 7.07% 0.1340 6.57% 14.15 2.05 0.49%
CHC 3.650 1,090,197,867 0.0564 1.55% 0.1890 5.18% 64.72 2.13 -71.36%
CMW 0.905 1,109,112,825 0.0526 5.81% 0.0712 7.87% 17.21 0.68 -33.09%
CPA 1.075 2,523,028,669 0.1066 9.92% 0.0640 5.95% 10.08 1.15 6.52%
CQR 3.840 1,261,878,417 0.0688 1.79% 0.2640 6.88% 55.81 3.31 -16.01%
DXS 1.045 5,056,780,264 0.0680 6.51% 0.0557 5.33% 15.37 1.03 -1.46%
FKP 1.525 490,407,525 0.2940 19.28% 0.0000 0.00% 5.19 4.06 62.44%
GMG 4.700 7,997,902,129 0.2704 5.75% 0.1870 3.98% 17.38 2.54 -85.04%
GPT 3.870 6,837,458,240 0.3360 8.68% 0.1930 4.99% 11.52 3.73 -3.75%
IOF 3.050 1,872,844,747 0.1600 5.25% 0.1655 5.43% 19.06 3.14 2.87%
MGR 1.585 5,429,556,110 0.0864 5.45% 0.0860 5.43% 18.34 1.64 3.35%
SCP 1.615 943,483,000 0.1180 7.31% 0.1040 6.44% 13.69 1.58 -2.22%
SGP 3.670 8,083,754,724 0.0130 0.35% 0.2400 6.54% 282.31 3.49 -5.16%
WDC 11.000 24,747,905,138 0.7322 6.66% 0.4950 4.50% 15.02 6.79 -62.00%
WRT 3.170 9,681,706,838 0.2690 8.49% 0.1875 5.91% 11.78 3.37 5.93%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
A couple of articles in this weeks Sydney Morning Herald Business section stood out, for me, and I thought they were worth a mention here.

The fist one was in Mondays paper by Matthew Kidman in respect of the increase in the price earnings ratios of some of the higher yield stocks in the ASX causing Yield compression. While Mr Kidman addresses mostly the likes of the banks, telstra, Woolies etc it is equaly relevent to the A-REIT's:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/its-critical-not-to-yield-to-compression-20130224-2ezh8.html

Carolyn Cummins followed up on Tuesday with an overview of the A-REIT distributions being paid out this week and the expectation of Analysts of this being churned back into the A-REIT sector:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/reit-interim-dividends-tipped-for-reinvestment-20130225-2f1zt.html

And today Malcolm Maiden rounded out the week with an article on the current levels of optimism in the market seeming to sweep past any negative news such as the Italian Elections and the U.S. Fiscal Cliff.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-bucket-overflows-with-dubious-optimism-20130301-2fbua.html

You have to wonder if we are going to continue to surge higher on euphimistic optimism or suffer a reality check and see another correction in the near future. The A-REIT Table updated for Weekend 01 March 2013 follows:


Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.410 1,967,046,896 0.3120 9.15% 0.2150 6.30% 10.93 3.46 1.45%
BWP 2.300 1,227,385,317 0.1645 7.15% 0.1387 6.03% 13.98 1.87 -22.99%
CFX 2.030 5,741,846,188 0.1442 7.10% 0.1340 6.60% 14.08 2.05 0.98%
CHC 3.750 1,120,066,301 0.0564 1.50% 0.1890 5.04% 66.49 2.13 -76.06%
CMW 0.945 1,158,134,386 0.0526 5.57% 0.0712 7.53% 17.97 0.68 -38.97%
CPA 1.105 2,593,438,771 0.1066 9.65% 0.0640 5.79% 10.37 1.15 3.91%
CQR 3.890 1,278,309,125 0.0688 1.77% 0.2640 6.79% 56.54 3.31 -17.52%
DXS 1.065 5,153,560,747 0.0680 6.38% 0.0557 5.23% 15.66 1.03 -3.40%
FKP 1.700 546,683,799 0.2940 17.29% 0.0000 0.00% 5.78 4.06 58.13%
GMG 4.630 7,878,784,438 0.2704 5.84% 0.1870 4.04% 17.12 2.54 -82.28%
GPT 3.890 6,872,793,942 0.3360 8.64% 0.1930 4.96% 11.58 3.73 -4.29%
IOF 2.980 1,829,861,425 0.1600 5.37% 0.1655 5.55% 18.63 3.14 5.10%
MGR 1.610 5,515,195,796 0.0864 5.37% 0.0860 5.34% 18.63 1.64 1.83%
SCP 1.605 937,641,000 0.1180 7.35% 0.1040 6.48% 13.60 1.58 -1.58%
SGP 3.720 8,193,887,622 0.0130 0.35% 0.2400 6.45% 286.15 3.49 -6.59%
WDC 11.100 24,972,886,094 0.7322 6.60% 0.4950 4.46% 15.16 6.79 -63.48%
WRT 3.050 9,315,206,895 0.2690 8.82% 0.1875 6.15% 11.34 3.37 9.50%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
Another interesting week in the A-REIT sector. The sector itself appears to be surging ahead maintaining a prolongued bullish run-up. However looking at the individual shares in the sector provides an interesting mix of those rising, those falling and those with volitility providing plenty of short term trading opportunities.





The table of A-REIT shares for weekending 8 March 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.400 1,961,278,430 0.3120 9.18% 0.2150 6.32% 10.90 3.46 1.73%
BWP 2.350 1,254,067,607 0.1645 7.00% 0.1387 5.90% 14.29 1.87 -25.67%
CFX 2.020 5,713,561,231 0.1442 7.14% 0.1340 6.63% 14.01 2.05 1.46%
CHC 3.910 1,167,855,797 0.0564 1.44% 0.1890 4.83% 69.33 2.13 -83.57%
CMW 0.945 1,158,134,386 0.0526 5.57% 0.0712 7.53% 17.97 0.68 -38.97%
CPA 1.110 2,605,173,788 0.1066 9.60% 0.0640 5.77% 10.41 1.15 3.48%
CQR 3.960 1,301,312,117 0.0688 1.74% 0.2640 6.67% 57.56 3.31 -19.64%
DXS 1.045 5,056,780,264 0.0680 6.51% 0.0557 5.33% 15.37 1.03 -1.46%
FKP 1.715 551,507,479 0.2940 17.14% 0.0000 0.00% 5.83 4.06 57.76%
GMG 4.860 8,270,171,137 0.2704 5.56% 0.1870 3.85% 17.97 2.54 -91.34%
GPT 3.940 6,961,133,196 0.3360 8.53% 0.1930 4.90% 11.73 3.73 -5.63%
IOF 3.080 1,891,266,171 0.1600 5.19% 0.1655 5.37% 19.25 3.14 1.91%
MGR 1.600 5,480,939,922 0.0864 5.40% 0.0860 5.38% 18.52 1.64 2.44%
SCP 1.600 934,720,000 0.1180 7.38% 0.1040 6.50% 13.56 1.58 -1.27%
SGP 3.720 8,193,887,622 0.0130 0.35% 0.2400 6.45% 286.15 3.49 -6.59%
WDC 11.250 25,310,357,528 0.7322 6.51% 0.4950 4.40% 15.36 6.79 -65.68%
WRT 3.100 9,467,915,205 0.2690 8.68% 0.1875 6.05% 11.52 3.37 8.01%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
Early in the week the property sector looked like it was retreating from the recent highs. The consolidation on Thursay 7th and Friday 8th looked like turning into a correction with a significant dip on Thursday 14th. However after a slow start to the trading day on Friday 15th there was a huge buying push in the mid afternoon. This caught me by surprise as I had in fact been expecting a "Friday selldown" to start arround 2:30pm - 3:00pm. Most noticeable SCP spiked to a new high of $1.71 banging on 6.87% for the week. Good for holders, great for traders.



The updated table for Weekending 15 March 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.480 2,007,426,158 0.3120 8.97% 0.2150 6.18% 11.15 3.46 -0.58%
BWP 2.590 1,382,142,596 0.1645 6.35% 0.1387 5.36% 15.74 1.87 -38.50%
CFX 2.050 5,798,416,101 0.1442 7.03% 0.1340 6.54% 14.22 2.05 0.00%
CHC 3.920 1,170,842,640 0.0564 1.44% 0.1890 4.82% 69.50 2.13 -84.04%
CMW 0.950 1,164,262,081 0.0526 5.54% 0.0712 7.49% 18.06 0.68 -39.71%
CPA 1.140 2,675,583,891 0.1066 9.35% 0.0640 5.61% 10.69 1.15 0.87%
CQR 3.940 1,294,739,834 0.0688 1.75% 0.2640 6.70% 57.27 3.31 -19.03%
DXS 1.040 5,032,585,143 0.0680 6.54% 0.0557 5.36% 15.29 1.03 -0.97%
FKP 1.730 556,331,160 0.2940 16.99% 0.0000 0.00% 5.88 4.06 57.39%
GMG 4.990 8,491,389,707 0.2704 5.42% 0.1870 3.75% 18.45 2.54 -96.46%
GPT 3.790 6,696,115,434 0.3360 8.87% 0.1930 5.09% 11.28 3.73 -1.61%
IOF 3.100 1,903,547,120 0.1600 5.16% 0.1655 5.34% 19.38 3.14 1.27%
MGR 1.700 5,823,498,667 0.0864 5.08% 0.0860 5.06% 19.68 1.64 -3.66%
SCP 1.710 998,982,000 0.1180 6.90% 0.1040 6.08% 14.49 1.58 -8.23%
SGP 3.850 8,480,233,158 0.0130 0.34% 0.2400 6.23% 296.15 3.49 -10.32%
WDC 11.000 24,747,905,138 0.7322 6.66% 0.4950 4.50% 15.02 6.79 -62.00%
WRT 3.100 9,467,915,205 0.2690 8.68% 0.1875 6.05% 11.52 3.37 8.01%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
Cyprus, with an economy the size of a mosquito on the global elephants bum, managed to panick the world markets and the A-REITs here were swept up in the sell off. Fortunately there appeared to be buyers for most of the sellers. Profit takers seem to be partialy offset by investors seeking yield as a better alternative to bank interest rates. Unfortunately the big A-REIT gainers last week (BWT and SCP) gave most of it back.



The updated table for the A-REIT's for weekending 22 March 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.410 1,967,046,896 0.3120 9.15% 0.2150 6.30% 10.93 3.46 1.45%
BWP 2.380 1,270,076,980 0.1645 6.91% 0.1387 5.83% 14.47 1.87 -27.27%
CFX 2.070 5,854,986,014 0.1148 5.55% 0.1340 6.47% 18.03 2.05 -0.98%
CHC 3.930 1,173,829,484 0.0903 2.30% 0.1890 4.81% 43.52 2.12 -85.38%
CMW 0.965 1,182,645,167 0.0526 5.45% 0.0712 7.38% 18.35 0.68 -41.91%
CPA 1.120 2,628,643,823 0.0746 6.66% 0.0640 5.71% 15.01 1.15 2.61%
CQR 3.900 1,281,595,267 0.0688 1.76% 0.2640 6.77% 56.69 3.31 -17.82%
DXS 1.045 5,056,780,264 0.0680 6.51% 0.0557 5.33% 15.37 1.03 -1.46%
FKP 1.580 508,094,354 0.2940 18.61% 0.0000 0.00% 5.37 3.98 60.30%
GMG 4.790 8,151,053,446 0.2307 4.82% 0.1870 3.90% 20.76 2.64 -81.44%
GPT 3.750 6,625,444,031 0.3360 8.96% 0.1930 5.15% 11.16 3.73 -0.54%
IOF 3.020 1,854,423,323 0.1600 5.30% 0.1655 5.48% 18.88 3.14 3.82%
MGR 1.630 5,583,707,545 0.0864 5.30% 0.0860 5.28% 18.87 1.64 0.61%
SCP 1.650 963,930,000 0.1180 7.15% 0.1040 6.30% 13.98 1.58 -4.43%
SGP 3.750 8,259,967,361 0.0130 0.35% 0.2400 6.40% 288.46 3.49 -7.45%
WDC 10.760 24,207,950,844 0.7559 7.03% 0.4950 4.60% 14.23 6.90 -55.94%
WRT 3.040 9,284,665,233 0.2706 8.90% 0.1875 6.17% 11.23 3.42 11.11%

Comments:

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
While this was only a short week, the uncertainty bought on by Cyprus continued to provide volitility in the A-REIT sector. Additionaly there was a suggestion that GPT may be getting closer to launching a take over for all of ALZ then hive off the residential property develovement assets to an undisclosed Asian partner. The appearance of portfolio reweighting with significant sell downs in closing auctions supports the possibility of someone building a warchest to participate in any GPT capital raising. Naturally they would be looking for a discount on current prices which may also have influenced the recent slide in GPT's share price. Time will tell.

The table of closing prices for week ending 28 March 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.450 1,990,120,760 0.3120 9.04% 0.2150 6.23% 11.06 3.46 0.29%
BWP 2.380 1,270,076,980 0.1645 6.91% 0.1387 5.83% 14.47 1.87 -27.27%
CFX 2.010 5,685,276,275 0.1148 5.71% 0.1340 6.67% 17.51 2.05 1.95%
CHC 3.830 1,143,961,049 0.0903 2.36% 0.1890 4.93% 42.41 2.12 -80.66%
CMW 0.970 1,188,772,862 0.0526 5.42% 0.0712 7.34% 18.44 0.68 -42.65%
CPA 1.110 2,605,173,788 0.0746 6.72% 0.0640 5.77% 14.88 1.15 3.48%
CQR 3.910 1,284,881,409 0.0688 1.76% 0.2640 6.75% 56.83 3.31 -18.13%
DXS 1.040 5,032,585,143 0.0680 6.54% 0.0557 5.36% 15.29 1.03 -0.97%
FKP 1.580 508,094,354 0.2940 18.61% 0.0000 0.00% 5.37 3.98 60.30%
GMG 4.780 8,134,036,633 0.2307 4.83% 0.1870 3.91% 20.72 2.64 -81.06%
GPT 3.710 6,554,772,628 0.3360 9.06% 0.1930 5.20% 11.04 3.73 0.54%
IOF 3.060 1,878,985,221 0.1600 5.23% 0.1655 5.41% 19.13 3.14 2.55%
MGR 1.620 5,549,451,671 0.0864 5.33% 0.0860 5.31% 18.75 1.64 1.22%
SCP 1.655 966,851,000 0.1180 7.13% 0.1040 6.28% 14.03 1.58 -4.75%
SGP 3.650 8,039,701,565 0.0130 0.36% 0.2400 6.58% 280.77 3.49 -4.58%
WDC 10.850 24,410,433,704 0.7559 6.97% 0.4950 4.56% 14.35 6.90 -57.25%
WRT 3.020 9,223,581,909 0.2706 8.96% 0.1875 6.21% 11.16 3.42 11.70%

Comments:

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
This week fear mongering about European contagion from Cyprus bailout taxes and global bank runs seemed to abate to be briefly replaced by concerns over North Korean rhetoric, about engaging the U.S. in a nuclear war, and the week finished with a return to concerns in Europe as to the total mess they are in with the Euro. All adds to the interday volitility with some wild swings, some unexplained drops and some unexpected runups.

GPT rebounded from the close of $3.71 on thursday 28-03-2013 this week to tap $3.89 early in the week then drift down to $3.81 before closing out the week on $3.85. SGP rebounded from last weeks close of $3.65, tapped $3.81 early in the week then drifted back to close out the week at $3.73. It almost looks as if a fundmanager (or two) might have needed to churn some turnover to make the quarterly brokerage targets, so undertook a sell off on Thursday 28/3/13 and a buy back on 2/4/13, but that wouldn't happen would it )

The edited A-REIT table for week ending 05 April 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.570 2,059,342,351 0.3120 8.74% 0.2150 6.02% 11.44 3.46 -3.18%
BWP 2.380 1,270,076,980 0.1645 6.91% 0.1387 5.83% 14.47 1.87 -27.27%
CFX 2.040 5,770,131,144 0.1148 5.63% 0.1340 6.57% 17.77 2.05 0.49%
CHC 3.880 1,158,895,266 0.0903 2.33% 0.1890 4.87% 42.97 2.12 -83.02%
CMW 0.985 1,207,155,948 0.0526 5.34% 0.0712 7.23% 18.73 0.68 -44.85%
CPA 1.150 2,699,053,925 0.0746 6.49% 0.0640 5.57% 15.42 1.15 0.00%
CQR 3.990 1,311,170,542 0.0688 1.72% 0.2640 6.62% 57.99 3.31 -20.54%
DXS 1.085 5,250,341,231 0.0680 6.27% 0.0557 5.13% 15.96 1.03 -5.34%
FKP 1.500 482,368,058 0.2940 19.60% 0.0000 0.00% 5.10 3.98 62.31%
GMG 4.760 8,100,003,007 0.2307 4.85% 0.1870 3.93% 20.63 2.64 -80.30%
GPT 3.850 6,802,122,539 0.3360 8.73% 0.1930 5.01% 11.46 3.73 -3.22%
IOF 3.060 1,878,985,221 0.1600 5.23% 0.1655 5.41% 19.13 3.14 2.55%
MGR 1.610 5,515,195,796 0.0864 5.37% 0.0860 5.34% 18.63 1.64 1.83%
SCP 1.645 961,009,000 0.1180 7.17% 0.1040 6.32% 13.94 1.58 -4.11%
SGP 3.730 8,215,914,202 0.0130 0.35% 0.2400 6.43% 286.92 3.49 -6.88%
WDC 11.080 24,927,889,903 0.7559 6.82% 0.4950 4.47% 14.66 6.90 -60.58%
WRT 3.070 9,376,290,219 0.2706 8.81% 0.1875 6.11% 11.35 3.42 10.23%

Comments:

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
Less than a month ago the A-REIT sector was drifting down toward the lower channel bar of what had been a sustained upward sideways climb, albiet at a slower rate than the resources and banking sector. Last week started slowly with some sharp retraces on Wednesday (opportunities to buy?) however on Thursday there was a postive move up (sell the Wednesday buys and lock in the profits?). Then on Friday the A-REIT sector completely lost the plot and banged on 2% pushing several stocks to new record highs (recent anyway) and others close to their recent highs.

So what changed in the market? The resource stocks and banks took a tumble and Goldman Sachs told their clients to sell gold. Was that it? Money from Gold & resources transfering to the low priced A-REIT's with their good present level yields or was it just a temporary aberation fueled by irrational exuberance?



The updated A-REIT table for the closing prices for week ending 12 April 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.750 2,163,174,739 0.3120 8.32% 0.2150 5.73% 12.02 3.46 -8.38%
BWP 2.420 1,291,422,812 0.1645 6.80% 0.1387 5.73% 14.71 1.87 -29.41%
CFX 2.140 6,052,980,710 0.1148 5.36% 0.1340 6.26% 18.64 2.05 -4.39%
CHC 3.980 1,188,763,701 0.0903 2.27% 0.1890 4.75% 44.08 2.12 -87.74%
CMW 1.000 1,225,539,033 0.0526 5.26% 0.0712 7.12% 19.01 0.68 -47.06%
CPA 1.165 2,734,258,976 0.0746 6.40% 0.0640 5.49% 15.62 1.15 -1.30%
CQR 4.100 1,347,318,101 0.0688 1.68% 0.2640 6.44% 59.59 3.31 -23.87%
DXS 1.130 5,468,097,319 0.0680 6.02% 0.0557 4.93% 16.62 1.03 -9.71%
FKP 1.505 483,975,951 0.2940 19.53% 0.0000 0.00% 5.12 3.98 62.19%
GMG 5.050 8,593,490,585 0.2307 4.57% 0.1870 3.70% 21.89 2.64 -91.29%
GPT 3.950 6,978,801,046 0.3360 8.51% 0.1930 4.89% 11.76 3.73 -5.90%
IOF 3.220 1,977,232,815 0.1600 4.97% 0.1655 5.14% 20.13 3.14 -2.55%
MGR 1.685 5,772,114,855 0.0864 5.13% 0.0860 5.10% 19.50 1.64 -2.74%
SCP 1.635 955,167,000 0.1180 7.22% 0.1040 6.36% 13.86 1.58 -3.48%
SGP 3.850 8,480,233,158 0.0130 0.34% 0.2400 6.23% 296.15 3.49 -10.32%
WDC 11.340 25,512,840,388 0.7559 6.67% 0.4950 4.37% 15.00 6.90 -64.35%
WRT 3.140 9,590,081,852 0.2706 8.62% 0.1875 5.97% 11.60 3.42 8.19%


Comments:

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
If weekending 12 April 2013 was good for the A-REIT sector then last week was a bolter. What with the drop in the price of gold and a retrace by the mining sector, it looked like the sellers were moving across to the A-REIT sector seeking security in the yield paying stocks.



In addition to that, it also appears that foriegn investors taking advantage of low interest rates (Japan & USA) are investing in A-REIT's for the higher returns, profiting on the diference between their borrowing costs and the yields available. Even with the yield compression caused by the price spikes most of the A-REIT's are paying 5% or better. The risk foreign investors face is that their local currency improves against the Aud$. However with the money printing programs underway in Japan & the USA, trying to boost their inflation levels, it is a low risk.

The A-REIT table for closing prices Friday 19 April 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.610 2,082,416,215 0.3120 8.64% 0.2150 5.96% 11.57 3.46 -4.34%
BWP 2.420 1,291,422,812 0.1645 6.80% 0.1387 5.73% 14.71 1.87 -29.41%
CFX 2.190 6,194,405,493 0.1148 5.24% 0.1340 6.12% 19.08 2.05 -6.83%
CHC 4.110 1,227,592,666 0.0903 2.20% 0.1890 4.60% 45.51 2.12 -93.87%
CMW 1.020 1,250,049,814 0.0526 5.16% 0.0712 6.98% 19.39 0.68 -50.00%
CPA 1.165 2,734,258,976 0.0746 6.40% 0.0640 5.49% 15.62 1.15 -1.30%
CQR 4.190 1,376,893,376 0.0688 1.64% 0.2640 6.30% 60.90 3.31 -26.59%
DXS 1.140 5,516,487,561 0.0680 5.96% 0.0557 4.89% 16.76 1.03 -10.68%
FKP 1.480 475,936,483 0.2940 19.86% 0.0000 0.00% 5.03 3.98 62.81%
GMG 5.160 8,780,675,529 0.2307 4.47% 0.1870 3.62% 22.37 2.64 -95.45%
GPT 4.090 7,226,150,957 0.3360 8.22% 0.1930 4.72% 12.17 3.73 -9.65%
IOF 3.310 2,032,497,086 0.1600 4.83% 0.1655 5.00% 20.69 3.14 -5.41%
MGR 1.350 4,624,543,059 0.0864 6.40% 0.0860 6.37% 15.63 1.64 17.68%
SCP 1.650 963,930,000 0.1180 7.15% 0.1040 6.30% 13.98 1.58 -4.43%
SGP 3.840 8,458,206,578 0.0130 0.34% 0.2400 6.25% 295.38 3.49 -10.03%
WDC 11.710 26,345,269,924 0.7559 6.46% 0.4950 4.23% 15.49 6.90 -69.71%
WRT 3.260 9,956,581,796 0.2706 8.30% 0.1875 5.75% 12.05 3.42 4.68%

Comments:

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .
 
The Mirvac Group price and figures in the above table are incorrect. The correct closing price is $1.72. So the capital, ROE, Yield & P/E are also incorrect. oops :1zhelp:
 
This weeks closing prices for many of the A-REIT shares does not reflect the volitility they went through during the week. In many instances, there was a significant upswing in A-REIT share prices on Wednesday, pushing the shares to new recent highs. This was fairly impressive following on from the previous weeks climb (propped up by the funds moving out of resources and the gold bugs running for safe havens). Unfortunately for holders many of the Wednesday gains were lost in subsequent retraces on Friday. It is possible some of the Wednesday surges were influenced by options settlements due to take place on the Thursday 25th(?).



The updated A-REIT Table for closing prices as at Friday 26 April 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.700 2,134,332,409 0.3120 8.43% 0.2150 5.81% 11.86 3.46 -6.94%
BWP 2.430 1,296,759,270 0.1645 6.77% 0.1387 5.71% 14.77 1.87 -29.95%
CFX 2.190 6,194,405,493 0.1148 5.24% 0.1340 6.12% 19.08 2.05 -6.83%
CHC 4.170 1,245,513,727 0.0903 2.17% 0.1890 4.53% 46.18 2.12 -96.70%
CMW 1.040 1,274,560,594 0.0526 5.06% 0.0712 6.85% 19.77 0.68 -52.94%
CPA 1.165 2,734,258,976 0.0746 6.40% 0.0640 5.49% 15.62 1.15 -1.30%
CQR 4.290 1,409,754,794 0.0688 1.60% 0.2640 6.15% 62.35 3.31 -29.61%
DXS 1.130 5,468,097,319 0.0680 6.02% 0.0557 4.93% 16.62 1.03 -9.71%
FKP 1.625 522,565,396 0.2940 18.09% 0.0000 0.00% 5.53 3.98 59.17%
GMG 5.170 8,797,692,342 0.2307 4.46% 0.1870 3.62% 22.41 2.64 -95.83%
GPT 4.090 7,226,150,957 0.3360 8.22% 0.1930 4.72% 12.17 3.73 -9.65%
IOF 3.220 1,977,232,815 0.1600 4.97% 0.1655 5.14% 20.13 3.14 -2.55%
MGR 1.710 5,857,754,541 0.0864 5.05% 0.0860 5.03% 19.79 1.64 -4.27%
SCP 1.635 955,167,000 0.1180 7.22% 0.1040 6.36% 13.86 1.58 -3.48%
SGP 3.790 8,348,073,680 0.0130 0.34% 0.2400 6.33% 291.54 3.49 -8.60%
WDC 11.590 26,075,292,777 0.7559 6.52% 0.4950 4.27% 15.33 6.90 -67.97%
WRT 3.290 10,048,206,782 0.2706 8.22% 0.1875 5.70% 12.16 3.42 3.80%

Comments:

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
Another volitile week in the A-REIT sector. Some dipped, recovered and then dipped again. Some like IOF reached for new highs and others stayed flat or dropped (like GPT which went ex-div). The chart shows that the setor is holding up at the new level but there is some jigging going on amongst the individual shares:





The updated table for closing prices as at weekending 03 May 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.700 2,134,332,409 0.3120 8.43% 0.2150 5.81% 11.86 3.46 -6.94%
BWP 2.460 1,312,768,643 0.1645 6.69% 0.1387 5.64% 14.95 1.87 -31.55%
CFX 2.190 6,194,405,493 0.1148 5.24% 0.1340 6.12% 19.08 2.05 -6.83%
CHC 4.440 1,326,158,501 0.0903 2.03% 0.1890 4.26% 49.17 2.12 -109.43%
CMW 1.060 1,299,071,375 0.0526 4.96% 0.0712 6.72% 20.15 0.68 -55.88%
CPA 1.175 2,757,729,010 0.0746 6.35% 0.0640 5.45% 15.75 1.15 -2.17%
CQR 4.290 1,409,754,794 0.0688 1.60% 0.2640 6.15% 62.35 3.31 -29.61%
DXS 1.175 5,685,853,407 0.0680 5.79% 0.0557 4.74% 17.28 1.03 -14.08%
FKP 1.590 511,310,141 0.2940 18.49% 0.0000 0.00% 5.41 3.98 60.05%
GMG 5.220 8,882,776,407 0.2307 4.42% 0.1870 3.58% 22.63 2.64 -97.73%
GPT 4.050 7,155,479,554 0.3360 8.30% 0.1930 4.77% 12.05 3.73 -8.58%
IOF 3.370 2,069,339,933 0.1600 4.75% 0.1655 4.91% 21.06 3.14 -7.32%
MGR 1.715 5,874,882,478 0.0864 5.04% 0.0860 5.01% 19.85 1.64 -4.57%
SCP 1.745 1,019,429,000 0.1180 6.76% 0.1040 5.96% 14.79 1.58 -10.44%
SGP 3.850 8,480,233,158 0.0130 0.34% 0.2400 6.23% 296.15 3.49 -10.32%
WDC 11.750 26,435,262,307 0.7559 6.43% 0.4950 4.21% 15.54 6.90 -70.29%
WRT 3.330 10,170,373,429 0.2706 8.13% 0.1875 5.63% 12.31 3.42 2.63%

Comments:

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
This week was a mixture of rises and fall among the A-REIT shares, mostly small rises, a few consolidations and a few falls. Overall the sector looks to have broken out above the pennant that appeared to be forming two weeks ago. Most of the support would be driven by the quest for yield in shares that have better returns than the falling global (and now Australian) interest rates.



I wonder how long the quest for yield can support the A-REIT sector as yields get compressed, Price Earnings multiples get inflated and many of them struggle to find growth in this tough economy. The updated A-REIT table with closing prices for week ending 10 May 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.630 2,093,953,147 0.3120 8.60% 0.2150 5.92% 11.63 3.46 -4.91%
BWP 2.720 1,451,516,549 0.1645 6.05% 0.1387 5.10% 16.53 1.87 -45.45%
CFX 2.230 6,307,545,320 0.1148 5.15% 0.1340 6.01% 19.43 2.05 -8.78%
CHC 4.640 1,385,895,370 0.0903 1.95% 0.1890 4.07% 51.38 2.12 -118.87%
CMW 1.110 1,360,348,327 0.0526 4.74% 0.0712 6.41% 21.10 0.68 -63.24%
CPA 1.180 2,769,464,027 0.0746 6.32% 0.0640 5.42% 15.82 1.15 -2.61%
CQR 4.400 1,445,902,352 0.0688 1.56% 0.2640 6.00% 63.95 3.31 -32.93%
DXS 1.180 5,710,048,528 0.0680 5.76% 0.0557 4.72% 17.35 1.03 -14.56%
FKP 1.560 501,662,780 0.2940 18.85% 0.0000 0.00% 5.31 3.98 60.80%
GMG 5.400 9,189,079,042 0.2307 4.27% 0.1870 3.46% 23.41 2.64 -104.55%
GPT 4.140 7,314,490,211 0.3360 8.12% 0.1930 4.66% 12.32 3.73 -10.99%
IOF 3.320 2,038,637,561 0.1600 4.82% 0.1655 4.98% 20.75 3.14 -5.73%
MGR 1.745 5,977,650,102 0.0864 4.95% 0.0860 4.93% 20.20 1.64 -6.40%
SCP 1.785 1,042,797,000 0.1180 6.61% 0.1040 5.83% 15.13 1.58 -12.97%
SGP 3.820 8,414,153,419 0.0130 0.34% 0.2400 6.28% 293.85 3.49 -9.46%
WDC 12.010 27,020,212,792 0.7559 6.29% 0.4950 4.12% 15.89 6.90 -74.06%
WRT 3.390 10,353,623,401 0.2706 7.98% 0.1875 5.53% 12.53 3.42 0.88%


Comments:

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .
 
What a great week. The A-REIT sector maintained the breakout from the previous weeks pennant but to spice things up the international speculators sold off the Aud$. This seems to have prompted a large scale withdrawal of off-shore investments in the A-REIT sector pushing several A-REIT's down as they locked in profits. The falling Aud$ (and the sell downs) then had the effect of making the A-REIT's cheaper to the other off-shore investors chasing yield and the week ended with spirited buying on Thursday and Friday.



As usual the Friday closing prices don't reflect the volitility through the week, but there were opportunities a plenty for the quick and the bold. Mind you sometimes it seems you can be flirting with disaster. The table of closing prices for weekending 17 May 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.550 2,047,805,419 0.3120 8.79% 0.2150 6.06% 11.38 3.46 -2.60%
BWP 2.730 1,456,853,007 0.1645 6.03% 0.1387 5.08% 16.60 1.87 -45.99%
CFX 2.190 6,194,405,493 0.1148 5.24% 0.1340 6.12% 19.08 2.05 -6.83%
CHC 4.530 1,353,040,092 0.0903 1.99% 0.1890 4.17% 50.17 2.12 -113.68%
CMW 1.070 1,311,326,765 0.0526 4.92% 0.0712 6.65% 20.34 0.68 -57.35%
CPA 1.160 2,722,523,959 0.0746 6.43% 0.0640 5.52% 15.55 1.15 -0.87%
CQR 4.360 1,432,757,786 0.0688 1.58% 0.2640 6.06% 63.37 3.31 -31.72%
DXS 1.220 5,903,609,495 0.0680 5.57% 0.0557 4.57% 17.94 1.03 -18.45%
FKP 1.515 487,191,738 0.2940 19.41% 0.0000 0.00% 5.15 3.98 61.93%
GMG 5.310 9,035,927,724 0.2307 4.34% 0.1870 3.52% 23.02 2.64 -101.14%
GPT 4.120 7,279,154,509 0.3360 8.16% 0.1930 4.68% 12.26 3.73 -10.46%
IOF 3.350 2,057,058,984 0.1600 4.78% 0.1655 4.94% 20.94 3.14 -6.69%
MGR 1.770 6,063,289,788 0.0864 4.88% 0.0860 4.86% 20.49 1.64 -7.93%
SCP 1.765 1,031,113,000 0.1180 6.69% 0.1040 5.89% 14.96 1.58 -11.71%
SGP 3.890 8,568,339,476 0.0130 0.33% 0.2400 6.17% 299.23 3.49 -11.46%
WDC 12.340 27,762,649,946 0.7559 6.13% 0.4950 4.01% 16.32 6.90 -78.84%
WRT 3.310 10,109,290,105 0.2706 8.18% 0.1875 5.66% 12.23 3.42 3.22%

Comments:

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
If last week was a great week for the A-REIT sector when the sector climbed to new highs and appeared to hold them (even as long as Tuesday this week) then this week was a disastor with the sector falling 4.7% for the week (and even more if you measure the change from the closing high of Tuesday 21-May-2013.




The Relative Strength Chart suggests that the sector has moved way into "oversold" territory on larger than average volumes for the last three days:



The updated A-REIT table for week ending 24-5-13 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.550 2,047,805,419 0.3120 8.79% 0.2150 6.06% 11.38 3.46 -2.60%
BWP 2.580 1,376,806,138 0.1645 6.38% 0.1387 5.38% 15.68 1.87 -37.97%
CFX 2.095 5,925,698,406 0.1148 5.48% 0.1340 6.40% 18.25 2.05 -2.20%
CHC 4.360 1,302,263,753 0.0903 2.07% 0.1890 4.33% 48.28 2.12 -105.66%
CMW 1.032 1,264,756,282 0.0526 5.10% 0.0712 6.90% 19.62 0.68 -51.76%
CPA 1.105 2,593,438,771 0.0746 6.75% 0.0640 5.79% 14.81 1.15 3.91%
CQR 4.270 1,403,182,510 0.0688 1.61% 0.2640 6.18% 62.06 3.31 -29.00%
DXS 1.122 5,429,385,125 0.0680 6.06% 0.0557 4.96% 16.50 1.03 -8.93%
FKP 1.415 455,033,868 0.2940 20.78% 0.0000 0.00% 4.81 3.98 64.45%
GMG 5.055 8,601,998,992 0.2307 4.56% 0.1870 3.70% 21.91 2.64 -91.48%
GPT 3.900 6,890,461,793 0.3360 8.62% 0.1930 4.95% 11.61 3.73 -4.56%
IOF 3.220 1,977,232,815 0.1600 4.97% 0.1655 5.14% 20.13 3.14 -2.55%
MGR 1.687 5,778,966,030 0.0864 5.12% 0.0860 5.10% 19.53 1.64 -2.87%
SCP 1.785 1,042,797,000 0.1180 6.61% 0.1040 5.83% 15.13 1.58 -12.97%
SGP 3.720 8,193,887,622 0.0130 0.35% 0.2400 6.45% 286.15 3.49 -6.59%
WDC 11.980 26,952,718,505 0.7559 6.31% 0.4950 4.13% 15.85 6.90 -73.62%
WRT 3.160 9,651,165,176 0.2706 8.56% 0.1875 5.93% 11.68 3.42 7.60%

For interest sake I have prepared another table with the changes for this week for the shares listed in the above table:

Share Code Closing Price 17-05-13 Closing Price 24-05-13 $Change %Change
A-REIT Property Sector XPJ 11.28 10.75 -0.530 -4.70%
Australand Property ALZ 3.550 3.550 0.000 0.00%
BWP Trust BWP 2.730 2.580 -0.150 -5.49%
CFS Retail Trust CFX 2.190 2.095 -0.095 -4.34%
Charter Hall CHC 4.530 4.360 -0.170 -3.75%
Cromwell CMW 1.070 1.032 -0.038 -3.55%
Commonwealth Office CPA 1.160 1.105 -0.055 -4.74%
Charter Hall Retail CQR 4.360 4.270 -0.090 -2.06%
Dexus DXS 1.220 1.122 -0.098 -8.03%
FKP Stapled FKP 1.515 1.415 -0.100 -6.60%
Goodman Group GMG 5.310 5.055 -0.255 -4.80%
GPT Group GPT 4.120 3.900 -0.220 -5.34%
Investra Office IOF 3.350 3.220 -0.130 -3.88%
Mirvac Group MGR 1.770 1.687 -0.083 -4.69%
SCA Property Group SCP 1.765 1.785 0.020 1.13%
Stockland Property SGP 3.890 3.720 -0.170 -4.37%
Westfield WDC 12.340 11.980 -0.360 -2.92%
Westfield Retail WRT 3.310 3.160 -0.150 -4.53%


At this point of time, with the falling Australian Dollar, I would caution against relying on the RSI chart for the sector (and shares) alone when making investmant decisions.

Comments:

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck
 
The market giveth and the market taketh away. This week the A-REIT sector took another drubbing lifting the overall correction to close to 10% down over the last two weeks.

The upsurge in the sector back at the start of April was attributed to the change in the Japanese Governments approach to their economy by starting the printing presses and aiming for 2% inflation. The influx of money into the Japanese Economy was credited with starting a tsunami of investments in the Nikkei & ASX in shares with high yield rates better than bank and bond rates.

However the SMH BusinessDay today has an article by William Pesek, suggesting that the rise in the Nikkei was due foreign investors. The subsequent reversal in the Nikkei (and the ASX) could mean that those same investors have now taken heart from the alleged improvement in the US Economy and are taking their money home. Only problem with this is that the Dow Jones is also "whipsawing". Go figure.



The table for A-REIT closing prices 31 May 2014 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.480 2,007,426,158 0.3120 8.97% 0.2150 6.18% 11.15 3.46 -0.58%
BWP 2.500 1,334,114,475 0.1645 6.58% 0.1387 5.55% 15.20 1.87 -33.69%
CFX 2.010 5,685,276,275 0.1148 5.71% 0.1340 6.67% 17.51 2.05 1.95%
CHC 4.110 1,227,592,666 0.0903 2.20% 0.1890 4.60% 45.51 2.12 -93.87%
CMW 1.040 1,274,560,594 0.0526 5.06% 0.0712 6.85% 19.77 0.68 -52.94%
CPA 1.100 2,581,703,754 0.0746 6.78% 0.0640 5.82% 14.75 1.15 4.35%
CQR 4.110 1,350,604,243 0.0688 1.67% 0.2640 6.42% 59.74 3.31 -24.17%
DXS 1.100 5,322,926,594 0.0680 6.18% 0.0557 5.06% 16.18 1.03 -6.80%
FKP 1.410 453,425,974 0.2940 20.85% 0.0000 0.00% 4.80 3.98 64.57%
GMG 5.140 8,746,641,903 0.2307 4.49% 0.1870 3.64% 22.28 2.64 -94.70%
GPT 3.890 6,872,793,942 0.3360 8.64% 0.1930 4.96% 11.58 3.73 -4.29%
IOF 3.190 1,958,811,391 0.1600 5.02% 0.1655 5.19% 19.94 3.14 -1.59%
MGR 1.675 5,737,858,980 0.0864 5.16% 0.0860 5.13% 19.39 1.64 -2.13%
SCP 1.685 984,377,000 0.1180 7.00% 0.1040 6.17% 14.28 1.58 -6.65%
SGP 3.650 8,039,701,565 0.0130 0.36% 0.2400 6.58% 280.77 3.49 -4.58%
WDC 11.520 25,917,806,108 0.7559 6.56% 0.4950 4.30% 15.24 6.90 -66.96%
WRT 3.080 9,406,831,881 0.2706 8.79% 0.1875 6.09% 11.38 3.42 9.94%

Some of the yields are looking a lot better following on from the two week sell down. Whether this will make any difference to share prices in the short term remains to be seen.

Comments:

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck
 
The US markets finished the week strongly in complete contrast to the Australian Markets. Suffering from a double whammy of the falling value of the Aud$ against the US$ and the withdrawal of offshore funds from Australian shares the A-REIT sector fell further. What has been a consistantly improving sector since July 2011 now appears to have hit the wall.



I suspect it is likely that any further downward presure on the Aud$ will continue to erode A-REIT share prices. The forthcomming dividends may halt the fall on some shares. I also suspect we are heading into a period of even more volitility than the last 4-5 months. The updated table for A-REIT closing prices as at 7 June 2013 follows:

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Discount to NTA
ALZ 3.440 1,984,352,294 0.3120 9.07% 0.2150 6.25% 11.03 3.46 0.58%
BWP 2.360 1,259,404,064 0.1645 6.97% 0.1387 5.88% 14.35 1.87 -26.20%
CFX 1.980 5,600,421,405 0.1148 5.80% 0.1340 6.77% 17.25 2.05 3.41%
CHC 3.810 1,137,987,362 0.0903 2.37% 0.1890 4.96% 42.19 2.12 -79.72%
CMW 0.995 1,219,411,338 0.0526 5.29% 0.0712 7.16% 18.92 0.68 -46.32%
CPA 1.060 2,487,823,618 0.0746 7.04% 0.0640 6.04% 14.21 1.15 7.83%
CQR 4.050 1,330,887,393 0.0688 1.70% 0.2640 6.52% 58.87 3.31 -22.36%
DXS 1.065 5,153,560,747 0.0680 6.38% 0.0557 5.23% 15.66 1.03 -3.40%
FKP 1.150 369,815,511 0.2940 25.57% 0.0000 0.00% 3.91 3.98 71.11%
GMG 4.870 8,287,187,950 0.2307 4.74% 0.1870 3.84% 21.11 2.64 -84.47%
GPT 3.720 6,572,440,479 0.3360 9.03% 0.1930 5.19% 11.07 3.73 0.27%
IOF 2.960 1,817,580,476 0.1600 5.41% 0.1655 5.59% 18.50 3.14 5.73%
MGR 1.635 5,600,835,482 0.0864 5.28% 0.0860 5.26% 18.92 1.64 0.30%
SCP 1.635 955,167,000 0.1180 7.22% 0.1040 6.36% 13.86 1.58 -3.48%
SGP 3.610 7,951,595,246 0.0130 0.36% 0.2400 6.65% 277.69 3.49 -3.44%
WDC 11.300 25,422,848,005 0.7559 6.69% 0.4950 4.38% 14.95 6.90 -63.77%
WRT 2.990 9,131,956,923 0.2706 9.05% 0.1875 6.27% 11.05 3.42 12.57%

Comments:

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 . The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.

At these price levels some of the A-REIT's may look like absolute bargains. However, each day over the last two - three weeks the bargains have been getting better and better. As always do your own research and good luck .
 
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