A-REIT valuation model

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT Table at closing prices 16 November 2012. If I thought some of the reit's were trading at bargain prices in week ending 9/11/12 they were even better in the close on 16/11/12. Wonder if they won't be even better next Friday.

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ALZ	2.770	1,597,865,074	0.2520	9.10%	0.2150	7.76%	10.99	3.46	19.94%
BWP	2.040	1,071,520,390	0.1340	6.57%	0.1350	6.62%	15.22	1.85	-10.27%
CFX	1.885	5,331,714,317	0.1442	7.65%	0.1310	6.95%	13.07	2.06	8.50%
CHC	3.130	933,245,911	0.0564	1.80%	0.1820	5.81%	55.50	2.19	-42.92%
CMW	0.820	959,144,933	0.0216	2.63%	0.0700	8.54%	37.96	0.68	-20.59%
CPA	1.015	2,382,208,464	0.1066	10.50%	0.0609	6.00%	9.52	1.15	11.74%
CQR	3.540	1,060,685,141	0.2880	8.14%	0.2610	7.37%	12.29	3.43	-3.21%
DXS	0.990	4,790,633,934	0.0375	3.79%	0.0535	5.40%	26.40	1.00	1.00%
FKP	0.180	405,182,949	-0.2920	-162.22%	0.0219	12.17%	-0.62	0.90	80.00%
GMG	4.490	7,206,932,563	0.2704	6.02%	0.1800	4.01%	16.61	2.54	-76.77%
GPT	3.400	6,007,069,255	0.1789	5.26%	0.1880	5.53%	19.01	3.65	6.85%
IOF	2.840	1,743,894,781	0.1600	5.63%	0.1560	5.49%	17.75	3.14	9.55%
MGR	1.445	4,945,009,451	0.1220	8.44%	0.0840	5.81%	11.84	1.63	11.35%
SGP	3.350	7,381,883,214	0.2110	6.30%	0.2400	7.16%	15.88	3.68	8.97%
WDC	10.390	23,486,652,561	0.7322	7.05%	0.4895	4.71%	14.19	6.79	-53.02%
WRT	3.030	9,254,123,571	0.2690	8.88%	0.1765	5.83%	11.26	3.37	10.09%

I suspect there are several reasons for the sell down into Fridays closing auction. While the REIT fundamentals are still relatively sound, it appears a lot of money is being pulled out of the market again primarily due to the nervousness about what, if anything, Obama is going to do about the U.S economy. I suspect there may also be a bit of portfolio reweighting as the fund managers free up cash to take up a position in SCP (Woolworths float off of the Shopping Centres). There was a very similar sell down of REIT's when Westfields seperated out the retail arm. As always d.y.o.r. and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

The property sector closed up for the week, almost 1%, after staging a slow recovery from Tuesday open. Some of the bargains, like CFX & IOF were snapped up and SGP rallied from the recent low of $3.29 to end this week at $3.45. Daily volumes continue at low levels and it isn't unusual in some of the stocks to see as much as 50% of the days trade turn over in the closing auction.

The REIT table has been updated for closing prices Friday 23 November 2012.

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ALZ	2.970	1,713,234,393	0.2520	8.48%	0.2150	7.24%	11.79	3.46	14.16%
BWP	2.100	1,120,656,159	0.1340	6.38%	0.1350	6.43%	15.67	1.85	-13.51%
CFX	1.940	5,487,281,578	0.1442	7.43%	0.1310	6.75%	13.45	2.07	6.28%
CHC	3.110	928,908,319	0.0564	1.81%	0.1820	5.85%	55.14	2.13	-46.01%
CMW	0.830	1,017,197,397	0.0216	2.60%	0.0706	8.51%	38.43	0.67	-23.88%
CPA	1.045	2,452,618,567	0.1066	10.20%	0.0609	5.83%	9.80	1.15	9.13%
CQR	3.570	1,173,152,590	0.0324	0.91%	0.2610	7.31%	110.19	3.38	-5.62%
DXS	0.995	4,814,829,055	0.0375	3.77%	0.0535	5.38%	26.53	1.00	0.50%
FKP	0.215	483,968,523	0.0420	19.53%	0.0116	5.40%	5.12	0.58	62.93%
GMG	4.590	7,810,717,185	0.2704	5.89%	0.1800	3.92%	16.97	2.54	-80.71%
GPT	3.480	6,148,412,061	0.1789	5.14%	0.1910	5.49%	19.45	3.65	4.66%
IOF	2.930	1,799,159,052	0.1600	5.46%	0.1560	5.32%	18.31	3.14	6.69%
MGR	1.460	5,001,357,678	0.1220	8.36%	0.0640	4.38%	11.97	1.66	12.05%
SGP	3.450	7,599,169,972	0.2110	6.12%	0.2400	6.96%	16.35	3.68	6.25%
WDC	10.440	23,488,011,786	0.7322	7.01%	0.4895	4.69%	14.26	6.79	-53.76%
WRT	3.040	9,284,665,233	0.2690	8.85%	0.1765	5.81%	11.30	3.37	9.79%

Please note. The figures for FKP are speculative based on my conversion of the information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue.
Disclaimer: These figures may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Although the ASX was up for the week, A-REIT's in general stayed in a tight range. CPA finished the week at $1.02 almost as low as two weeks ago when it closed out the week at $1.015.

The REIT table has been updated for closing prices Friday 30 November 2012.

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ALZ	2.960	1,707,465,927	0.2520	8.51%	0.2150	7.26%	11.75	3.46	14.45%
BWP	2.130	1,136,665,533	0.1340	6.29%	0.1350	6.34%	15.90	1.85	-15.14%
CFX	1.940	5,487,281,578	0.1442	7.43%	0.1310	6.75%	13.45	2.07	6.28%
CHC	3.150	940,855,693	0.0564	1.79%	0.1820	5.78%	55.85	2.13	-47.89%
CMW	0.830	1,017,197,397	0.0216	2.60%	0.0706	8.51%	38.43	0.67	-23.88%
CPA	1.020	2,393,943,481	0.1066	10.45%	0.0609	5.97%	9.57	1.15	11.30%
CQR	3.580	1,176,438,732	0.0324	0.91%	0.2610	7.29%	110.49	3.38	-5.92%
DXS	1.005	4,863,219,297	0.0375	3.73%	0.0535	5.32%	26.80	1.00	-0.50%
FKP	0.195	438,948,195	0.0420	21.54%	0.0116	5.95%	4.64	0.58	66.38%
GMG	4.620	7,861,767,624	0.2704	5.85%	0.1800	3.90%	17.09	2.54	-81.89%
GPT	3.490	6,166,079,912	0.1789	5.13%	0.1910	5.47%	19.51	3.65	4.38%
IOF	2.900	1,780,737,628	0.1600	5.52%	0.1560	5.38%	18.13	3.14	7.64%
MGR	1.470	5,035,613,553	0.1220	8.30%	0.0640	4.35%	12.05	1.66	11.45%
SCP	1.450	847,090,000	0.1180	8.14%	0.1040	7.17%	12.29	1.58	8.23%
SGP	3.390	7,467,010,495	0.2110	6.22%	0.2400	7.08%	16.07	3.68	7.88%
WDC	10.420	23,443,015,594	0.7322	7.03%	0.4895	4.70%	14.23	6.79	-53.46%
WRT	2.990	9,131,956,923	0.2690	9.00%	0.1765	5.90%	11.12	3.37	11.28%

Please note.

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on my conversion of the information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. For more information see the FKP thread.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: These figures may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

This was an interesting week in the A-REIT sector as many of the shares struggled through the week to climb off their recent low support levels. Fortunately for holders, most of them rallied on Friday to close out the week close to their recent highs. Unfortunately, despite good volumes, two of the shares I hold failed to rally as strongly as the others and I may now hold them for the rest of the month looking for the distribution and prospects of a capital gain early in the new year.

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ALZ	3.020	1,742,076,723	0.2520	8.34%	0.2150	7.12%	11.98	3.46	12.72%
BWP	2.180	1,163,347,822	0.1340	6.15%	0.1350	6.19%	16.27	1.85	-17.84%
CFX	1.950	5,515,566,535	0.1442	7.39%	0.1310	6.72%	13.52	2.07	5.80%
CHC	3.250	970,724,128	0.0564	1.74%	0.1820	5.60%	57.62	2.13	-52.58%
CMW	0.860	1,053,963,568	0.0216	2.51%	0.0706	8.21%	39.81	0.67	-28.36%
CPA	1.035	2,429,148,532	0.1066	10.30%	0.0609	5.88%	9.71	1.15	10.00%
CQR	3.640	1,196,155,582	0.0324	0.89%	0.2610	7.17%	112.35	3.38	-7.69%
DXS	1.025	4,959,999,780	0.0375	3.66%	0.0535	5.22%	27.33	1.00	-2.50%
FKP	1.300	418,045,900	0.2940	22.62%	0.0812	6.25%	4.42	4.06	67.98%
GMG	4.570	7,776,683,559	0.2704	5.92%	0.1800	3.94%	16.90	2.54	-79.92%
GPT	3.600	6,360,426,270	0.1789	4.97%	0.1910	5.31%	20.12	3.65	1.37%
IOF	3.020	1,854,423,323	0.1600	5.30%	0.1560	5.17%	18.88	3.14	3.82%
MGR	1.500	5,138,381,177	0.1220	8.13%	0.0640	4.27%	12.30	1.66	9.64%
SCP	1.520	887,984,000	0.1180	7.76%	0.1040	6.84%	12.88	1.58	3.80%
SGP	3.430	7,555,116,813	0.2110	6.15%	0.2400	7.00%	16.26	3.68	6.79%
WDC	10.570	23,780,487,028	0.7322	6.93%	0.4895	4.63%	14.44	6.79	-55.67%
WRT	2.990	9,131,956,923	0.2690	9.00%	0.1765	5.90%	11.12	3.37	11.28%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on my conversion of the information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share. For more information see the FKP thread.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

 

[PinguPingu]

Had some decent short term trades on CRF and GMG end of this week, may also be back in for the distributions.

 

[nulla nulla]

Updated chart for Week ending 14 December 2012. Another interesting week with a take over offer in the works by GPT for ALZ (or parts there-of) a push down on Thursday followed by a rally on Friday and an overall increase in the sector for the week of almost 1%.

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ALZ	3.310	1,909,362,236	0.2520	7.61%	0.2150	6.50%	13.13	3.46	4.34%
BWP	2.180	1,163,347,822	0.1340	6.15%	0.1350	6.19%	16.27	1.85	-17.84%
CFX	1.965	5,557,993,970	0.1442	7.34%	0.1310	6.67%	13.63	2.07	5.07%
CHC	3.320	991,632,032	0.0564	1.70%	0.1820	5.48%	58.87	2.13	-55.87%
CMW	0.840	1,029,452,788	0.0216	2.57%	0.0706	8.40%	38.89	0.67	-25.37%
CPA	1.050	2,464,353,584	0.1066	10.15%	0.0609	5.80%	9.85	1.15	8.70%
CQR	3.800	1,248,733,850	0.0324	0.85%	0.2610	6.87%	117.28	3.38	-12.43%
DXS	1.020	4,935,804,660	0.0375	3.68%	0.0535	5.25%	27.20	1.00	-2.00%
FKP	1.185	381,064,916	0.2940	24.81%	0.0812	6.85%	4.03	4.06	70.81%
GMG	4.460	7,589,498,616	0.2704	6.06%	0.1800	4.04%	16.49	2.54	-75.59%
GPT	3.560	6,289,754,867	0.1789	5.03%	0.1910	5.37%	19.90	3.65	2.47%
IOF	2.960	1,817,580,476	0.1600	5.41%	0.1560	5.27%	18.50	3.14	5.73%
MGR	1.510	5,172,637,051	0.1220	8.08%	0.0640	4.24%	12.38	1.66	9.04%
SCP	1.495	873,379,000	0.1180	7.89%	0.1040	6.96%	12.67	1.58	5.38%
SGP	3.390	7,467,010,495	0.2110	6.22%	0.2400	7.08%	16.07	3.68	7.88%
WDC	10.640	23,937,973,697	0.7322	6.88%	0.4895	4.60%	14.53	6.79	-56.70%
WRT	3.000	9,162,498,585	0.2690	8.97%	0.1765	5.88%	11.15	3.37	10.98%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on my conversion of the information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share. For more information see the FKP thread.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 (The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share).

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

A very interesting week in the A-REIT sector. Some shares went ex-div on Friday 21/12/12 and their prices jumped earlier in the week then dropped on Friday. The take-over offer for ALZ by GPT is still on the cards despite ALZ saying no thank you. Mirvac was touted, in a newspaper, as making an alternative offer of a merger with ALZ but ALZ said they had not received any proposal from Mirvac and Mirvac said that they were aware of their disclosure obligations and had nothing to disclose. Coy eh?

The updated table for weekending 21 December 2012 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ALZ	3.440	1,984,352,294	0.2520	7.33%	0.2150	6.25%	13.65	3.46	0.58%
BWP	2.200	1,174,020,738	0.1340	6.09%	0.1350	6.14%	16.42	1.85	-18.92%
CFX	1.915	5,416,569,187	0.1442	7.53%	0.1310	6.84%	13.28	2.07	7.49%
CHC	3.270	976,697,815	0.0564	1.72%	0.1820	5.57%	57.98	2.13	-53.52%
CMW	0.850	1,041,708,178	0.0216	2.54%	0.0706	8.31%	39.35	0.67	-26.87%
CPA	1.020	2,393,943,481	0.1066	10.45%	0.0609	5.97%	9.57	1.15	11.30%
CQR	3.760	1,235,589,283	0.0324	0.86%	0.2610	6.94%	116.05	3.38	-11.24%
DXS	0.990	4,790,633,934	0.0375	3.79%	0.0535	5.40%	26.40	1.00	1.00%
FKP	1.160	373,031,298	0.2940	25.34%	0.0000	0.00%	3.95	4.06	71.43%
GMG	4.320	7,351,263,233	0.2704	6.26%	0.1800	4.17%	15.98	2.54	-70.08%
GPT	3.660	6,466,433,375	0.1789	4.89%	0.1910	5.22%	20.46	3.65	-0.27%
IOF	2.940	1,805,299,527	0.1600	5.44%	0.1560	5.31%	18.38	3.14	6.37%
MGR	1.475	5,052,741,490	0.1220	8.27%	0.0640	4.34%	12.09	1.66	11.14%
SCP	1.550	905,510,000	0.1180	7.61%	0.1040	6.71%	13.14	1.58	1.90%
SGP	3.510	7,731,329,450	0.2110	6.01%	0.2400	6.84%	16.64	3.68	4.62%
WDC	10.560	23,757,988,932	0.7322	6.93%	0.4895	4.64%	14.42	6.79	-55.52%
WRT	3.040	9,284,665,233	0.2690	8.85%	0.1765	5.81%	11.30	3.37	9.79%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. Also the distribution/yield have been dropped to zero to reflect that distributions have been suspended for FY13. For more information see the FKP site and announcements ther-in.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

The last ten days have provided some interesting activity in the A-REIT sector. Most of it appeared to be portfolio juggling in the lead up to Christmas Eve and New Years Eve. Possibly fund managers trying to set themselves up for their bonuses and/or deciding to reweight their holdings before taking their Christmas/New Year break.

After going ex-div on Friday 21st, the volumes dropped off on Monday, Thursday & Friday last week and again on Monday this week. Wednesday through Friday this week it appeared that some shares tried to rally on small volumes only to get slapped back in the close. The Christmas rally was a bit of a non event in the REIT sector, maybe next week will be better (subject of course to the influence of the "Fiscal Cliff" negotiations in the U.S.).

The A-REIT table has been updated as at the closing prices 31 December 2012:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ALZ	3.400	1,961,278,430	0.2520	7.41%	0.2150	6.32%	13.49	3.46	1.73%
BWP	2.160	1,152,674,906	0.1340	6.20%	0.1350	6.25%	16.12	1.85	-16.76%
CFX	1.915	5,416,569,187	0.1442	7.53%	0.1310	6.84%	13.28	2.07	7.49%
CHC	3.270	976,697,815	0.0564	1.72%	0.1820	5.57%	57.98	2.13	-53.52%
CMW	0.840	1,029,452,788	0.0216	2.57%	0.0706	8.40%	38.89	0.67	-25.37%
CPA	1.020	2,393,943,481	0.1066	10.45%	0.0609	5.97%	9.57	1.15	11.30%
CQR	3.760	1,235,589,283	0.0324	0.86%	0.2610	6.94%	116.05	3.38	-11.24%
DXS	1.015	4,911,609,539	0.0375	3.69%	0.0535	5.27%	27.07	1.00	-1.50%
FKP	1.130	363,383,937	0.2940	26.02%	0.0000	0.00%	3.84	4.06	72.17%
GMG	4.330	7,368,280,046	0.2704	6.24%	0.1800	4.16%	16.01	2.54	-70.47%
GPT	3.680	6,501,769,076	0.1789	4.86%	0.1910	5.19%	20.57	3.65	-0.82%
IOF	2.970	1,823,720,950	0.1600	5.39%	0.1560	5.25%	18.56	3.14	5.41%
MGR	1.485	5,086,997,365	0.1220	8.22%	0.0640	4.31%	12.17	1.66	10.54%
SCP	1.500	876,300,000	0.1180	7.87%	0.1040	6.93%	12.71	1.58	5.06%
SGP	3.530	7,775,382,609	0.2110	5.98%	0.2400	6.80%	16.73	3.68	4.08%
WDC	10.560	23,757,988,932	0.7322	6.93%	0.4895	4.64%	14.42	6.79	-55.52%
WRT	3.020	9,223,581,909	0.2690	8.91%	0.1765	5.84%	11.23	3.37	10.39%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck. And a Happy and prosperous New Year to all.

 

[nulla nulla]

The update to the A-REIT table follows for the closing prices week ending 04 January 2013:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ALZ	3.330	1,920,899,168	0.2520	7.57%	0.2150	6.46%	13.21	3.46	3.76%
BWP	2.180	1,163,347,822	0.1340	6.15%	0.1350	6.19%	16.27	1.85	-17.84%
CFX	1.920	5,430,711,665	0.1442	7.51%	0.1310	6.82%	13.31	2.07	7.25%
CHC	3.330	994,618,876	0.0564	1.69%	0.1820	5.47%	59.04	2.13	-56.34%
CMW	0.840	1,029,452,788	0.0216	2.57%	0.0706	8.40%	38.89	0.67	-25.37%
CPA	1.015	2,382,208,464	0.1066	10.50%	0.0609	6.00%	9.52	1.15	11.74%
CQR	3.790	1,245,447,708	0.0324	0.85%	0.2610	6.89%	116.98	3.38	-12.13%
DXS	0.985	4,766,438,813	0.0375	3.81%	0.0535	5.43%	26.27	1.00	1.50%
FKP	1.195	384,286,552	0.2940	24.60%	0.0000	0.00%	4.06	4.06	70.57%
GMG	4.370	7,436,347,298	0.2704	6.19%	0.1800	4.12%	16.16	2.54	-72.05%
GPT	3.670	6,484,101,225	0.1789	4.87%	0.1910	5.20%	20.51	3.65	-0.55%
IOF	2.950	1,811,440,001	0.1600	5.42%	0.1560	5.29%	18.44	3.14	6.05%
MGR	1.475	5,052,741,490	0.1220	8.27%	0.0640	4.34%	12.09	1.66	11.14%
SCP	1.505	879,221,000	0.1180	7.84%	0.1040	6.91%	12.75	1.58	4.75%
SGP	3.530	7,775,382,609	0.2110	5.98%	0.2400	6.80%	16.73	3.68	4.08%
WDC	10.520	23,667,996,550	0.7322	6.96%	0.4895	4.65%	14.37	6.79	-54.93%
WRT	3.020	9,223,581,909	0.2690	8.91%	0.1765	5.84%	11.23	3.37	10.39%

Some up, some down but the sector seemed to miss out on the Christmas rally. There seems to be a genuine lack of confidence and enthusiasm last week. Most of the big brokers/fund managers are still on holiday next week so I am not expecting any dramatic improvements or falls. Most of the action will be driven by the retail share holders so I anticipate that volumes will be thin. There could be some entry oportunities for those confident enough to enter on the recent retrace of some of the shares. Others may decide it is better to wait until volumes pick up a little and trends/patterns re-establish themselves.

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT's returned to favour over the last two weeks with some shares up significantly returning to the levels before they went exdiv. An up dated table for the closing prices as at 18 January 2013 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ALZ	3.430	1,978,583,828	0.2520	7.35%	0.2150	6.27%	13.61	3.46	0.87%
BWP	2.260	1,206,039,485	0.1340	5.93%	0.1350	5.97%	16.87	1.85	-22.16%
CFX	1.995	5,642,848,840	0.1442	7.23%	0.1310	6.57%	13.83	2.07	3.62%
CHC	3.280	979,684,658	0.0564	1.72%	0.1820	5.55%	58.16	2.13	-53.99%
CMW	0.835	1,023,325,093	0.0216	2.59%	0.0706	8.46%	38.66	0.67	-24.63%
CPA	1.120	2,628,643,823	0.1066	9.52%	0.0609	5.44%	10.51	1.15	2.61%
CQR	3.670	1,206,014,008	0.0324	0.88%	0.2610	7.11%	113.27	3.38	-8.58%
DXS	1.015	4,911,609,539	0.0375	3.69%	0.0535	5.27%	27.07	1.00	-1.50%
FKP	1.545	496,839,099	0.2940	19.03%	0.0000	0.00%	5.26	4.06	61.95%
GMG	4.470	7,606,515,429	0.2704	6.05%	0.1800	4.03%	16.53	2.54	-75.98%
GPT	3.600	6,360,426,270	0.1789	4.97%	0.1910	5.31%	20.12	3.65	1.37%
IOF	3.010	1,848,282,849	0.1600	5.32%	0.1560	5.18%	18.81	3.14	4.14%
MGR	1.560	5,343,916,424	0.1220	7.82%	0.0640	4.10%	12.79	1.66	6.02%
SCP	1.585	925,957,000	0.1180	7.44%	0.1040	6.56%	13.43	1.58	-0.32%
SGP	3.530	7,775,382,609	0.2110	5.98%	0.2400	6.80%	16.73	3.68	4.08%
WDC	10.990	24,725,407,042	0.7322	6.66%	0.4895	4.45%	15.01	6.79	-61.86%
WRT	3.090	9,437,373,543	0.2690	8.71%	0.1765	5.71%	11.49	3.37	8.31%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

A-REIT's came back in favour this week with some notable climbs accross the sector and standouts by the likes of Dexus and Investa Office. An updated table of the A-REIT fundamentals for the closing prices on 25 January 2013 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ALZ	3.410	1,967,046,896	0.2520	7.39%	0.2150	6.30%	13.53	3.46	1.45%
BWP	2.310	1,232,721,775	0.1340	5.80%	0.1350	5.84%	17.24	1.85	-24.86%
CFX	2.030	5,741,846,188	0.1442	7.10%	0.1310	6.45%	14.08	2.07	1.93%
CHC	3.360	1,003,579,406	0.0564	1.68%	0.1820	5.42%	59.57	2.13	-57.75%
CMW	0.855	1,047,835,873	0.0216	2.53%	0.0706	8.26%	39.58	0.67	-27.61%
CPA	1.115	2,616,908,805	0.1066	9.56%	0.0609	5.46%	10.46	1.15	3.04%
CQR	3.760	1,235,589,283	0.0324	0.86%	0.2610	6.94%	116.05	3.38	-11.24%
DXS	1.060	5,129,365,627	0.0375	3.54%	0.0535	5.05%	28.27	1.00	-6.00%
FKP	1.650	530,604,863	0.2940	17.82%	0.0000	0.00%	5.61	4.06	59.36%
GMG	4.500	7,657,565,868	0.2704	6.01%	0.1800	4.00%	16.64	2.54	-77.17%
GPT	3.690	6,519,436,927	0.1789	4.85%	0.1910	5.18%	20.63	3.65	-1.10%
IOF	3.070	1,885,125,696	0.1600	5.21%	0.1560	5.08%	19.19	3.14	2.23%
MGR	1.560	5,343,916,424	0.1220	7.82%	0.0640	4.10%	12.79	1.66	6.02%
SCP	1.595	931,799,000	0.1180	7.40%	0.1040	6.52%	13.52	1.58	-0.95%
SGP	3.510	7,731,329,450	0.2110	6.01%	0.2400	6.84%	16.64	3.68	4.62%
WDC	10.970	24,680,410,851	0.7322	6.67%	0.4895	4.46%	14.98	6.79	-61.56%
WRT	3.170	9,681,706,838	0.2690	8.49%	0.1765	5.57%	11.78	3.37	5.93%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

The table has been updated with the stock codes now providing a direct link to the corresponding thread within AussieStockForums for most of the codes (Work in progress with a high degree of dificulty). Some of the threads appear to receive more support than others which makes me wonder if there are a few opportunities going begging in the A-REIT sector. If anyone finds any "misdirected connections" please feel free to pm me rather than clutter the thread with posts about errors.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ALZ	3.410	1,967,046,896	0.2520	7.39%	0.2150	6.30%	13.53	3.46	1.45%
BWP	2.310	1,232,721,775	0.1340	5.80%	0.1350	5.84%	17.24	1.85	-24.86%
CFX	2.030	5,741,846,188	0.1442	7.10%	0.1310	6.45%	14.08	2.07	1.93%
CHC	3.360	1,003,579,406	0.0564	1.68%	0.1820	5.42%	59.57	2.13	-57.75%
CMW	0.855	1,047,835,873	0.0216	2.53%	0.0706	8.26%	39.58	0.67	-27.61%
CPA	1.115	2,616,908,805	0.1066	9.56%	0.0609	5.46%	10.46	1.15	3.04%
CQR	3.760	1,235,589,283	0.0324	0.86%	0.2610	6.94%	116.05	3.38	-11.24%
DXS	1.060	5,129,365,627	0.0375	3.54%	0.0535	5.05%	28.27	1.00	-6.00%
FKP	1.650	530,604,863	0.2940	17.82%	0.0000	0.00%	5.61	4.06	59.36%
GMG	4.500	7,657,565,868	0.2704	6.01%	0.1800	4.00%	16.64	2.54	-77.17%
GPT	3.690	6,519,436,927	0.1789	4.85%	0.1910	5.18%	20.63	3.65	-1.10%
IOF	3.070	1,885,125,696	0.1600	5.21%	0.1560	5.08%	19.19	3.14	2.23%
MGR	1.560	5,343,916,424	0.1220	7.82%	0.0640	4.10%	12.79	1.66	6.02%
SCP	1.595	931,799,000	0.1180	7.40%	0.1040	6.52%	13.52	1.58	-0.95%
SGP	3.510	7,731,329,450	0.2110	6.01%	0.2400	6.84%	16.64	3.68	4.62%
WDC	10.970	24,680,410,851	0.7322	6.67%	0.4895	4.46%	14.98	6.79	-61.56%
WRT	3.170	9,681,706,838	0.2690	8.49%	0.1765	5.57%	11.78	3.37	5.93%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012 Comments ( 08 December 2012):
. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

The table has been updated with the stock codes now providing a direct link to the corresponding thread within AussieStockForums for most of the codes (WRT is proving to be a problem, wonder if it is an omen ). If anyone finds any "misdirected connections" please feel free to pm me rather than clutter the thread with posts about errors.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[hotchy]

What do you think of GOZ?

 

[nulla nulla]

The money continued to poor in this week into the A-REIT sector. The newspapers suggest that there was an element of panic buying, some groups clamouring to get aboard in case they miss out on the start of a bull market rally. Most of it seems to be yield return buyers anticipating further interest rate cuts and a drop off in the returns from bonds and bank deposits. The updated table for week ending 1 February 2013 follows:

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Discount to NTA
ALZ	3.470	2,001,657,692	0.2520	7.26%	0.2150	6.20%	13.77	3.46	-0.29%
BWP	2.400	1,280,749,896	0.1340	5.58%	0.1350	5.63%	17.91	1.85	-29.73%
CFX	2.020	5,713,561,231	0.1442	7.14%	0.1310	6.49%	14.01	2.07	2.42%
CHC	3.470	1,036,434,684	0.0564	1.63%	0.1820	5.24%	61.52	2.13	-62.91%
CMW	0.870	1,066,218,959	0.0216	2.48%	0.0706	8.11%	40.28	0.67	-29.85%
CPA	1.125	2,640,378,840	0.1066	9.48%	0.0609	5.41%	10.55	1.15	2.17%
CQR	3.920	1,288,167,550	0.0324	0.83%	0.2610	6.66%	120.99	3.38	-15.98%
DXS	1.060	5,129,365,627	0.0375	3.54%	0.0535	5.05%	28.27	1.00	-6.00%
FKP	1.740	559,546,947	0.2940	16.90%	0.0000	0.00%	5.92	4.06	57.14%
GMG	4.640	7,895,801,251	0.2704	5.83%	0.1800	3.88%	17.16	2.54	-82.68%
GPT	3.830	6,766,786,837	0.1789	4.67%	0.1910	4.99%	21.41	3.65	-4.93%
IOF	3.080	1,891,266,171	0.1600	5.19%	0.1560	5.06%	19.25	3.14	1.91%
MGR	1.590	5,446,684,047	0.1220	7.67%	0.0640	4.03%	13.03	1.66	4.22%
SCP	1.630	952,246,000	0.1180	7.24%	0.1040	6.38%	13.81	1.58	-3.16%
SGP	3.460	7,621,196,552	0.2110	6.10%	0.2400	6.94%	16.40	3.68	5.98%
WDC	11.290	25,400,349,910	0.7322	6.49%	0.4895	4.34%	15.42	6.79	-66.27%
WRT	3.190	9,742,790,162	0.2690	8.43%	0.1765	5.53%	11.86	3.37	5.34%

1. The figures for FKP are speculative based on information provided in FKP's Annual Report converting the figures based on the number of shares on issue as at 30-6-12 to the number of shares on issue after the August issue. In addition the initial speculative figures have now been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1 share with the resultant number of shares taken from the release dated 13 December 2012. For more information see the FKP site.

2. The figures for SCP (earnings and distributions) are guideline forecasts for the period 2013 - 2014 extracted from the proposal of 5 October 2012. The forecasts earnings and distributions for the period ending 30 June 2013 are: Earnings of $0.065 per share and Distributions of $0.056 per share.

Disclaimer: The figures in the above table may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck .

The table has been updated with the stock codes now providing a direct link to the corresponding thread within AussieStockForums. Some of the threads appear to receive more support than others. If anyone finds any "misdirected connections" please feel free to pm me rather than clutter the thread with posts about errors.

As always, do your own research and good luck.

 

[sinner]

Hey nulla,

Good stuff. But I heard for REIT the correct valuation model to use is Price/FFO ratio (Funds From Operations) rather than P/E.

Thoughts? Here is an example site I got from googling "reit ffo"

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/04/112204.asp

 

[nulla nulla]

Hey nulla,

Good stuff. But I heard for REIT the correct valuation model to use is Price/FFO ratio (Funds From Operations) rather than P/E.

Thoughts? Here is an example site I got from googling "reit ffo"

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/04/112204.asp

Thanks Sinner. It is an interesting article and perspective. I'm not sure that I have noticed depreciation in the Annual Reports of A-REIT's as a deduction before arriving at net Income.

I believe property revaluations have impacted on the bottom line (up and down) in some. I know for certain that the devaluation of property portfolio's has led to a drop in nta and the market has sold down the price of various REIT shares accordingly.

For now I will continue with Earnings as reported, but will look more closely into FFO and AFFO to determine whether I should amend the table.

Thanks & cheers.

 

[coolcup]

Hi nulla nulla

For the sake of discussion and with all respect, I think your table is a very traditional way of looking at the REIT sector about 10 years ago when all the REITs were basically rent collectors. I think some things have changed which make some of the columns a little less relevant without broader context. Let me set out my thoughts below for discussion.

1. ROE - I think all you are doing here is taking EPS and dividing by the share price? So it is just the inverse of the P/E ratio? This is not the true ROE of a REIT. The ROE should include the capital growth of the underlying property portfolio as this is marked to market every reporting period. A better measure of underlying ROE is distributions (ie income) plus movement in NTA (ie capital growth) to give a total equity return. Otherwise, the column is not much more helpful than the P/E

2. Yield - this is useful but not without the context of expected growth in distributions. For example, from your table, Goodman Group has a low yield of sub 4% and yet was one of the top performing A-REITs last year. This is because they have a low payout ratio and are retaining earnings to grow the underlying platform, so the expected distribution growth is quite high (~6%). SCP on the other hand has a higher yield of around 6% because their growth profile is much more subdued (1-2% per annum) due to the nature of the leases that Woolworths has placed within those assets. I don't think yield on its own gives a full picture.

3. Discount to NTA - I think this is a useful measure for the REITs which simply hold passive rent collecting assets. These are revalued every year and so the true underlying value of the portfolio is reflected in the NTA, and you can compare that to the share price. In this bucket I include GPT, CPA, CQR, DXS, BWP, etc. For REITs with more diverse activities such as development the NTA is not a true reflection of value (eg SGP, ALZ, MGR). Take for example Mirvac today who had to write down a large amount of their residential inventory. The development inventory is held on balance sheet at the lower of cost or realisable value NOT at market value like the investment properties. Similarly, a REIT like Goodman and Westfield have a large amount of earnings streams from funds / development management operations which have no asset backing. Hence they trade at large premiums to NTA as these earnings streams are real and so are valued by the market, despite having no real asset backing behind them.

I would propose that a better model is looking at the P/E ratio and expected growth in earnings alongside the business model / level of earnings certainty provided by each group. I would also group the rent collector REITs together and the more active REITs in a separate pile. It simply does not make sense to have stocks like Goodman, Charter Hall, FKP, SGP, MGR, ALZ and WDC in the same bucket as CPA, GPT, DXS, BWP, WRT. The business models are very different as are the underlying risks in the nature of their activities and earnings.

Happy to discuss and I do not mean any disrespect by any of the above comments at all.

 

[coolcup]

Thanks Sinner. It is an interesting article and perspective. I'm not sure that I have noticed depreciation in the Annual Reports of A-REIT's as a deduction before arriving at net Income.

I believe property revaluations have impacted on the bottom line (up and down) in some. I know for certain that the devaluation of property portfolio's has led to a drop in nta and the market has sold down the price of various REIT shares accordingly.

For now I will continue with Earnings as reported, but will look more closely into FFO and AFFO to determine whether I should amend the table.

Thanks & cheers.

On AFFO while theoretically a better way of valuing than earnings, there is no unified approach to determining what is included and excluded on an AFFO basis for the A_REIT sector (unlike the US REITs which have a very standardised FFO definition). So while in theory AFFO multiples are a sensible idea, they are disclosed and reported in a very haphazard way making comparison not apples for apples.

 

[nulla nulla]

Hi nulla nulla

For the sake of discussion and with all respect, I think your table is a very traditional way of looking at the REIT sector about 10 years ago when all the REITs were basically rent collectors. I think some things have changed which make some of the columns a little less relevant without broader context. Let me set out my thoughts below for discussion....

I would propose that a better model is looking at the P/E ratio and expected growth in earnings alongside the business model / level of earnings certainty provided by each group. I would also group the rent collector REITs together and the more active REITs in a separate pile. It simply does not make sense to have stocks like Goodman, Charter Hall, FKP, SGP, MGR, ALZ and WDC in the same bucket as CPA, GPT, DXS, BWP, WRT. The business models are very different as are the underlying risks in the nature of their activities and earnings.

Happy to discuss and I do not mean any disrespect by any of the above comments at all.

No offence taken coolcup, and I'm sure you also will not be offended when I agree to disagree with the content of your post.

This thread was started by Bushman on 11 June 2010. At the time of my first post with the initial table on 18 June 2012 (some two years later) there had been 3000+ views but no replies. Since my first response with the table there has been a further 3000+ views. The table is just that, a table of the major A-REIT's as extracted from the AXO property sector.

The table is made up of the basic fundamental financial information available. Some of the information has been gleaned from ComescIress as stated in the earier posts (which I understand is source from Huntley's) and some of the information is sourced from Annual Reports and or press releases. There is no differentiating between the A-REIT's in accordance with whether they specialise in Offices, Retail outlets, Residential development sites, Industrial sites, Retirement villages or a mixture of the aforementioned. I have no desire to create sub divisions with in the sector of like for like A-REIT's. In my opinion it would be more trouble than it would be worth.

The information I post is as much for my own purposes as it is for anyone else to look at. I don't invest/trade in every share listed but I do invest/trade in several of them. The table simply presents the fundamentals at the end of a given period for comparitive information only and is not intented to be the basis for any one to make investment decisions. I end each post with the line "As always do your own research".

As for changing the format of the table to expand/replace ROE, Yield, Discount on NTA, I find that the table format tool is very restrictive in the number of columns and width of columns that it will allow. The alternative of creating a spreadsheet, saving it as a picture, then posting the image doesn't appeal to me as the data would become miniscule and difficult for anyone to read. Further, as I mentioned in one of my earlier posts, I am risk adverse and I personaly factor in these three fundamental items in my own assessments whether to invest/trade or not.

Of course if you wish to start seperate threads for groupings of like for like A-REIT's, as you have outlined above, I'm sure you would get plenty of interest and support.

 

[coolcup]

Hi nulla nulla

My apologies if I have offended you, I was not meaning to downplay the relevance of the metrics of your table and understand that the limitations of the forum features in terms of creating tables etc means simplifying things is a necessity. I was simply trying to engage in a dialogue on the most meaningful A-REIT valuation methodologies. As you say, it best for everyone to do their own research.

Apologies for not understanding the background to the thread. As I am new to these forums, I was simply going off the title. I would say though that most institutional investors in the A-REIT sector do not really use some of the metrics in the way you have put forward in your table for making their investment decisions for the reasons I articulated above.

All the best.

Cheers