A Different Form of Trading

[brty]

The fascinating part to watch will be the difference in results from your own fixed odds pre publicity compared with starting odds, especially if the system continues to perform. I would not think it would take long (as in a month or two) for the thread to become very popular and bet size be considerably larger than $100 from followers, again if it continues with success.

 

[prawn_86]

The fascinating part to watch will be the difference in results from your own fixed odds pre publicity compared with starting odds, especially if the system continues to perform. I would not think it would take long (as in a month or two) for the thread to become very popular and bet size be considerably larger than $100 from followers, again if it continues with success.

I know little about betting; are the odds on one site affected by the move in odds on another?

EG if i placed a huge bet on Sportsbet.com.au would the TAB.com.au odds also move?

 

[Trembling Hand]

The fascinating part to watch will be the difference in results from your own fixed odds pre publicity compared with starting odds, especially if the system continues to perform. I would not think it would take long (as in a month or two) for the thread to become very popular and bet size be considerably larger than $100 from followers, again if it continues with success.

Send the calls to a mod in a PDF or word doc with a password. After the races the mod gets the password and post the picks.

 

[kermit345]

brty, I actually use sportsbet.com.au's CB (Country or City Best) option to place my bets, so that I get the best price from the TAB's starting prices. I don't use fixed odds as sometimes you can get left out in the cold with a fixed price of $4.00 and CB price of say $6.00. Obviously it can work in reverse as well but i've found it rarely goes in your favour.

I'll be looking at using Betfair soon though (finalising ID verification) as people like you and me make the market with no corporates taking their cut. BF only take a commission of 6.50% on profits so while not ideal, is still better then your TAB's and agencies who make the market themselves.

I believe its a combination of both prawn, if there were any major movements on one site/TAB then i think you'd find the competititors would quickly follow suit. I believe TAB's pools are perfectly driven by the weight of money whereas agencies like sportsbet, centrebet etc will follow the TAB's lead a bit.

 

[kermit345]

Send the calls to a mod in a PDF or word doc with a password. After the races the mod gets the password and post the picks.

I'm not too fussed posting just directly here, at least for a little while if things did start to get out of hand then i'd soon stop. The same as anything though I really hope people wouldn't start blindly following from the first bet I post and expect instant coffee. If any anger was directed at me for losses i'd be pretty reluctant to post anything further.

It would simply be an exercise to show what i'm following myself, if people decide to jump on the train as well then so be it for the time i post the plays, but don't get upset with me if it falls down.

 

[Timmy]

Send the calls to a mod in a PDF or word doc with a password. After the races the mod gets the password and post the picks.

Does anyone know of a good, fast password cracking software pls?






:

.

 

[peter2]

kermit: All you have to do is post your race markets (top 5). It's then up to the punters who actually want to bet to work out the overlays for themselves.

Once the race day is over the overlays can be easily identified and their performance monitored.

 

[kid hustlr]

I know little about betting; are the odds on one site affected by the move in odds on another?

EG if i placed a huge bet on Sportsbet.com.au would the TAB.com.au odds also move?

I believe this would move all markets prawn. Without knowing the details of how liquid/efficient these markets are I would assume a massive variation in pricing would allow for arbitrage opportunites.

 

[kermit345]

kid hustlr,

A guy on this racing forum I read found an arbitrage opportunity that was available pretty regularly, however he had to place the bets with two different agencies, however for some reason the winning side seemed to continually be with one of the agencies and not the other, said it didn't take them long before he was banned the opportunity ceased to exist.

It's funny how a lot of these agencies encourage you to bet with the illusion of winning being easy, as soon as anyone does it consistently and starts increasing their volume you get banned pretty quickly. There's some pretty interesting stories in a thread created recently where people who bet for a day job were posting their experiences. If anyone is interested feel free to PM for the link.

One thing that most people note, and which is basically why i'm comfortable posting my plays on here, is that people will follow you in the short term, but as soon as there are a string of losses or they accidentally forget to follow you for a day or two, they generally give up. So while I plan on following this through for the long-term, I don't think it would take long to weed out many on here if they were following me.

 

[kermit345]

Ok guys I ran through the bets but changed the units from $10 units throughout to starting with $500 bankroll and betting 2.00% units. I'm not even going to post the screenshot of the statistics because they are beyond rediculous. Changing the units to 2.00% instead of flat $10 throughout basically compounds the returns exponentially. The max drawdown remains at a reasonable level of 21.84% but the returns are just beyond believable.

For instance here's a snippet of what a few stats become by changing the unit size:

Finishing Capital - $1,482,441
Expectancy - $7,678
RR - 52,738%

As you can see it's simply unbelievable.

Thats all I comment on regarding 2% units, just thought i'd let you know how it turned out.

 

[jersey10]

Ok guys I ran through the bets but changed the units from $10 units throughout to starting with $500 bankroll and betting 2.00% units. I'm not even going to post the screenshot of the statistics because they are beyond rediculous. Changing the units to 2.00% instead of flat $10 throughout basically compounds the returns exponentially. The max drawdown remains at a reasonable level of 21.84% but the returns are just beyond believable.

For instance here's a snippet of what a few stats become by changing the unit size:

Finishing Capital - $1,482,441
Expectancy - $7,678
RR - 52,738%

As you can see it's simply unbelievable.

Thats all I comment on regarding 2% units, just thought i'd let you know how it turned out.

I can't believe you aren't betting bigger, especially if this edge is too good to last.

 

[skc]

For instance here's a snippet of what a few stats become by changing the unit size:

Finishing Capital - $1,482,441
Expectancy - $7,678
RR - 52,738%

As you can see it's simply unbelievable.

These are starting to look wrong...

On these stats here, your average profit per bet is $25.60 on average of $14.82 bet, yet your expectancy per $1 bet is also $25.60. Looks like something's wrong with the expectancy calculation?

Also, your maximum drawdown of $94.20 is 19.84% of $500, not the $1000 invested capital. So something not right in there either.

 

[skc]

Another question:

- The $25.6 average profit per bet, is that net profit, i.e. after taking into account the average $14.82 of capital? Or is the net profit really $10.78?

 

[So_Cynical]

Winning bets 80
Losing bets 113

Picking just 1 horse and only win betting ..... over 4 months and 193 punts.

Kermit if every race only had 3 starters that's very hard to achieve...with an average field of 11 or 12 starters its

Its

Impossible.

I've seen lucky streaks, had one or two myself, ive studied, track times, conditions, travel affects, barriers, jockeys, breeding, form lines, class lines, weights, Track Bias, 1st up, second up anomalies...you name it.

And the above is why no system can consistently pick single winners at such a rate as to make em pay.

Average odds 8.45 8 and a half to 1 is the average. No no no no no.

Nothing personal...and no malice intended but NO.

------------------------

Kermit can you please PM me your results spread sheet.?

 

[kermit345]

SC - Haha don't worry mate i'm barely believing it myself but like I said I can give you every selection so far for every race, venue etc etc. It's funny how nobody in the racing forum has questioned what i've done so far but on here there are skeptics everywhere. SC if every race only had 3 starters, you'd be able to hit better then the 33% you think it works out to be. It's not like flipping a coin or rolling a dice where the number of horses all have an equal chance of winning, hence the odds. This is why achieving a strike rate of 30-40% definitely isn't out of the realms of possibilities, especially since solely betting favourites wins around 33% of the time taking into account every single race.

I agree with you that its not sustainable, but there's no reason I can't even out at a level of say 35% and odds of say $5-1 on average, which would still mean a profit. Anyhow i'm not going to write anymore defending the bets so far, in my mind it is what it is, as i've said from now on i'll post the plays for everyone to see. Either that or ill take TH's advice and give a passworded pdf to a mod who can post after the races have run.

skc - As far as I know the calculations are correct but i'll tell you how i've calculated them:

Avg Profit per bet - simply Total Net Profit / Bets Executed
Avg Bet Size - in excel i just did the average of all staking cells
Expectancy - (Winning % * Avg Winning bet) + (Losing % * Avg Losing bet)

Regarding max drawdown your 100% correct, i actually did it vs $500 as my $10 unit size is 2% of $500 - good pickup i should've explained that. I've actually adjusted my spreadsheet to show starting capital as $500 so everything lines up.

Let me know if any of those equations look incorrect skc, more than happy to admit if i'm doing something wrong, just can't see it myself at the moment.

By the way, I haven't said yet but even though 193 bets have been executed that from a total of 1,186 races that i've completed ratings on. I'm happy to answer any questions you have on what i'm doing but if you are basically going to call me a liar i'd rather you just didn't reply unless its constructive.

Thanks

 

[jersey10]

I agree with you that its not sustainable, but there's no reason I can't even out at a level of say 35% and odds of say $5-1 on average, which would still mean a profit.

Why is it not sustainable?

 

[skc]

skc - As far as I know the calculations are correct but i'll tell you how i've calculated them:

Avg Profit per bet - simply Total Net Profit / Bets Executed
Avg Bet Size - in excel i just did the average of all staking cells
Expectancy - (Winning % * Avg Winning bet) + (Losing % * Avg Losing bet)

Regarding max drawdown your 100% correct, i actually did it vs $500 as my $10 unit size is 2% of $500 - good pickup i should've explained that. I've actually adjusted my spreadsheet to show starting capital as $500 so everything lines up.

Let me know if any of those equations look incorrect skc, more than happy to admit if i'm doing something wrong, just can't see it myself at the moment.

If your average bet size is correct at $14.82, then your "Expectancy per $1 bet" should = $25.6 / $14.82 = 1.727.

May be that caused an extrapolation error?

 

[kermit345]

If your average bet size is correct at $14.82, then your "Expectancy per $1 bet" should = $25.6 / $14.82 = 1.727.

May be that caused an extrapolation error?

Yeh actually exactly what your saying is true skc. The way I calculated it was just the way it was shown in an equation i found on a website ages ago but what your saying makes total sense. I'll fix the spreadsheet to reflect that now as it makes more sense then what is showing there at the moment. Cheers.

 

[odds-on]

Top thread Kermit345! Keep posting.

The discussion about favourite-longshot bias got me thinking.

-How can an investor apply it to the ASX?
-How does an investor select the favourites? Off the top of my head - take the current macroeconomic conditions (the track/weather), select the companies most likely to succeed in that macroeconomic climate (the horse) and then pick the companies with the best odds (strongest recent business performance with the lowest P/E ratio relative to peers/overall market).

Also, there is past issue of AFR Smart Investor which has an interesting article on an investor who applies a mechanical system to the ASX using historical price and fundamental data. The investor reckons if a stock meets his criteria (which he developed over many years) it has high chance of success. He does no business research and he implements a strict stop loss at 10%. His CAGR was around 30% if my memory serves me correctly. If you enjoy the betting spreadsheet and rating systems, you may enjoy implementing a mechanical stock trading system.

 

[kermit345]

Hi All,

The following plays are bets that I'll be putting on today with a joint account I share with a friend. These are not plays that are within the realms of the statistics i've posted as that system does not bet on Friday's. However as we wanted more action (me and my friend) we only exclude Thursday's. Friday's are profitable going by my stats, just not by as much as other days during the week.

Plays:

Goulburn - Race 6

No. Top 5 Odds Overlay
6 Kanskje $7.22 1.11
3 Moorings Capital $7.31 0.41
1 Gunna Happen $8.87 0.62
2 Moment of Clarity $10.07 0.65
5 Image Of Darkness $11.65 0.60

No. System 1 Selection Stake
6 Kanskje $11.08

Goulburn - Race 7

No. Top 5 Odds Overlay
3 Wondergal $5.01 0.90
8 Stellar Academy $8.56 0.41
4 River Chloe $9.31 1.07
2 Tiger Territory $9.44 0.48
5 Vegasherewecome $9.86 1.62

No. System 1 Selection Stake
3 Wondergal $9.00