A Different Form of Trading

[Trembling Hand]

Wow. Another wow. So you're wealthier than Bill Gates by now. Keep it up.

Mate maybe you just need a nice big hug.

Like I said a couple of points,

They never last,

They are not scalable,

I've seen real results like that,

And

you never will.

 

[jancha]

I like to have a punt and as i dont sleep well at night i watch the replays and pick out any black bookers.
I then enter them into a site that holds your horses imformation eg. Distant..track conditions..Class ect The site then sends an e-mail to you when the horse races in it's next start and refreshes your memory on it's last start. I have found this the best way to have a punt especially with multiples eg. trifecta trebles quadrella as it's your own visual interpretation of what you think of that horse. I've owned horses in the past i know that they peak and by watching them run you can see that they needed the run or more needed ground in finishing off a race. Some horses also run on better if ridden from behind and dont win when ridden up front.

What ever method of rating Kermit has it's pretty darn good to have that strike rate and at that average price.
I recall getting an offer for the cost of $6000 to join something similiar to Kermits setup and recieve by e-mail horses to back on the day. No i did'nt buy in as i know there are a lot of other factors with horses and a lot of things can go wrong. I just hope Kermits not trying to sell something. You know the old saying if it sounds too good to be true it probably is'nt.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Mate maybe you just need a nice big hug.

Like I said a couple of points,

They never last,

They are not scalable,

I've seen real results like that,

And

you never will.

Or maybe it's all a lie.

We'll never know.

But since you're not in the BRW rich list, we'll just have to believe you.

 

[kermit345]

GB - Understand where you are coming from as this is an online forum and you don't know me from the next guy, but why would I go to the effort of posting two different stats tables from two different points in time with a fake scatter etc etc? It's a lot of effort to really achieve nothing except some praise by people on here. I have absolutely no intentions of selling anything, was simply an exercise i've gone through as I enjoy gambling, enjoy statistics and enjoy playing around with excel.

The reason for such a high CAGR is the short time period combined with the extraordinary winnings (I say extraordinary because I believe it won't last, at least not at this level). It's a relatively small sample size of just 4 months so because the account has gone from $1,000 to almost $6,000 in that short time of course the CAGR is extremely high. If I change that original balance number to $10,000 that CAGR instantly drops a huge amount.

I'm not trying to dupe anyone, and I can even provide you a list of every single bet that makes up those returns if you really want to go back and cross-check yourself. If you think i'd go back and look at every track, every race, every day for 4 months and select the bets just to falsify this then thats a pretty warped view of the world - but I guess this is online so I can understand somewhat. I'll post the bets for a while on here if that's of interest to people? Obviously no garuntee's they will produce anything but i'm willing to put myself out there.

Anyway, GB i'm not here to sell anything or seem like the almighty racing prophet, was just looking for some guidance on other stats/charts I should be looking at from a traders point of view. If you wish to be skeptical of my numbers thats understandable but don't really want to fill up this thread if its a witch hunt against me and moves away from the purpose of the thread.

Note: The reason I haven't looked at betting bigger on this system is its small sample size so far. If I continue to see respectable results moving into the spring carnival i'll likely increase my betting units. For now $10 unit's suffice.

I'm happy to answer any questions people have and i'll try prove anything you ask GB. If you want that list of all bets placed (Date, Venue, Race No., Overlay, Selection and Odds). You have to remember in betting there is an automatic stop loss (the amount you bet) however your returns are instantly 4R or better in most cases (particularly for my system) - something that can be possibly more difficult to achieve in share trading?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Or maybe it's all a lie.

We'll never know.

But since you're not in the BRW rich list, we'll just have to believe you.

I'll happily send you statements. But you'll have to do something for us.......

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I'll happily send you statements. But you'll have to do something for us.......

"But you'll have to do something for us". Take a hike.

Anyone can Photoshop broker statements.

 

[kermit345]

jancha - Not trying to sell something mate, wasn't even looking for this much attention just wanted some direction on any stats/charts I was missing. Just in relation to the strike rate, the actual strike rate of my top selection is basically the same as betting on the favourite of every race (generally 30-33% over the long-term). However it's once I apply some simple filters that the SR and payout improves quite a bit:

Simple filters based on my own stats:

Don't bet my ratings on Monday, Thursday or Friday.
Don't bet at QR (country QLD)
Don't bet on Slow/Heavy tracks

If I wanted to have more bets but a little less return i'd only filter out Thursday's, QR and Slow tracks as these are the only filters that show a negative return on my top rated horse.

EDIT:
Forgot to mention I only complete ratings on the better quality fields, I don't touch maiden's or Class 1 races as there just isn't the form there to make ratings accurate.

 

[Timmy]

Enough bickering - this thread needs to get back on topic.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I'll post the bets for a while on here if that's of interest to people? Obviously no garuntee's they will produce anything but i'm willing to put myself out there.

Thats would be good. Some real time calls. Just like we ask anyone with a trading system.

 

[prawn_86]

Thats would be good. Some real time calls. Just like we ask anyone with a trading system.

Yes, if Kermit would be so kind as to post up some bets he is taking either before the race (or just as it is running) then that will allow people to make further comments.

Up to him though depending on what he is seeking from this thread, this isn't a stock thread as such so it can be treated slightly differently

 

[Timmy]

GB - you have some PMs but it appears your inbox is full?

Sry for interruption all, back to topic.

 

[jancha]

These are my black bookers for this Saturday
BAY WINDOW WARWICK FARM R8
DARE TO DOUBT BELMONT R4
GIRESUN CAULFIELD R8
HARMONIC CAULFIELD R7
HEAVY SET BELMONT R7
MISS BINDI (NZ) CAULFIELD R5
MOSCOW PEARL (NZ) CAULFIELD R3
MYSTIC DUST BELMONT R5

RIGHT TIME BELMONT R8

Kermit are any of those yours?

 

[kermit345]

These are my black bookers for this Saturday
BAY WINDOW WARWICK FARM R8
DARE TO DOUBT BELMONT R4
GIRESUN CAULFIELD R8
HARMONIC CAULFIELD R7
HEAVY SET BELMONT R7
MISS BINDI (NZ) CAULFIELD R5
MOSCOW PEARL (NZ) CAULFIELD R3
MYSTIC DUST BELMONT R5

RIGHT TIME BELMONT R8

Kermit are any of those yours?

Unfortunately can't do my ratings until the morning of the raceday. Can post some examples for today's racing if anyone is interested but they wouldn't be plays as Thursday's are actually the worst day my ratings perform for some reason - mainly due to the quality of the fields.

 

[jancha]

Unfortunately can't do my ratings until the morning of the raceday. Can post some examples for today's racing if anyone is interested but they wouldn't be plays as Thursday's are actually the worst day my ratings perform for some reason - mainly due to the quality of the fields.

Thats why it's better to stick the larger stake races.. less hanky panky.
I find that WA Belmont Ascot racing gives me the best results with my black bookers. Maybe because the track conditions dont vary as much as other states? I dont know.
I to look at it on the race day to determine my bet eg track conditions.
I'll be looking forward to your selections for Saturdays race meets.

 

[CanOz]

Wow, what a difference a day makes to a thread

 

[skc]

"But you'll have to do something for us". Take a hike.

Anyone can Photoshop broker statements.

Big hug to you, GB. Even my goldfish can tell you are not in a good mood.

I don't know the first thing about horse racing, and frankly I didn't pay any attention to Kermit's CAGR figure as everyone knows that the sample size is still small to extrapolate. I have spoke with Kermit over PM a number of times before this thread on stock-related stuff, and know that he has a real job and isn't selling anything to us. He's also showed that he's pretty good with his spreadsheets on another thread. So imo he has no reason to make this stuff up.

Hopefully he will post his real time bets and we will see it in action, and see your input input as well.

I posted this a few years ago... just to show you what's possible sometimes. And like many have said. Things that are too good usually don't last and certainly not very scalable.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14588

 

[kermit345]

Haha yeh we've moved forward quite a bit CanOz (or maybe even backwards?).

Recently i've preferred WA races as well jancha as the eastern states have been constantly wet for a few weeks now which is not giving me much opportunity to use my ratings. Hopefully as things clear up a bit over the next month or so should see some more plays start to pick up again.

Anyhow now that a few people have looked at the stats/charts was there anything people thought 'oh I wonder what x is, it doesn't say it here'?

I've got some ideas that I might try put in place later tonight for charts. Hopefully the whole stats side is covered off.

 

[brty]

By the way the max drawdown so far is 18% based on betting 2% units of my bankroll, I assume this is quite good in comparison to share trading max drawdowns?

Your graphs do not appear to show this. The statistics drawn up show a consistent bet size not a percentage of bankroll 'investment'.

GB, I have personally seen the statements (and the wealth) of an individual who turned less than $10k into over $750k trading commodities in the mid 80's in a little over a year. While not CAGR of over 30,000%. You do not see him on the rich list because a little electronic malfunction cost him over $200k three weeks before the '87 crash. He stopped trading, became educated in markets via some shonksters, and has never been able to repeat his earlier success. He kept most of his money. He is a friend that I have known for over 25 years.

His methodology of making the fortune was simple hourly charts that when a price moved outside the trend channel he bought or sold accordingly, he drew the charts by hand. He also played a few hunches.

Kermit, If you post the picks then I would not expect the system to perform nearly as well, simply because many here might go and put $10 on your picks, enough to shorten the odds one or two points. But that in itself might be an interesting experiment.

Good luck with it.

P.S. Now where did I put that stray $10 and how do you bet at the TAB?

 

[prawn_86]

Kermit, If you post the picks then I would not expect the system to perform nearly as well, simply because many here might go and put $10 on your picks, enough to shorten the odds one or two points. But that in itself might be an interesting experiment.

Good luck with it.

P.S. Now where did I put that stray $10 and how do you bet at the TAB?

Depends ont he size of the market, but yes this owuld be a concern. If he was to place the bet before posting here and take the fixed odds option that would overcome this however

 

[kermit345]

Hi brty,

Good pickup on the drawdown part. I'll explain briefly how i've done it. I've based the max drawdown on if you continue to bet 2% of your starting bankroll/capital not 2% of your ongoing bankroll.

What I could do tonight is show you the effects of essentially compounding the money by betting 2% of the remaining bankroll from the previous bet. It's something i've been thinking of in the last week or so, i'll have some free time tonight so will give it a look and post the results. Only thing is it will likely blow that CAGR back out even further so GB might not be happy haha, just kidding GB .

It would depend how many here decide to throw $10 on my selections, it may make a slight difference on a weekday market but it would likely have almost zero effect on a saturday market as the pools are considerably higher. Anyhow my statistics shown in this thread are based on odds achieved with Unitab. Generally you can achieve much better odds with Betfair even after you pay their commission on profits. Therefore the points I 'may' miss in recording my statistics, i'm unlikely to miss with my actual betting.

For instance, when I was posting my ratings for all qualifying races on the horse betting forum I follow, myself and another reader noticed for a short period of time that my 1st, 3rd and 5th rated horses were winning quite regularly. He started betting just $10 on them if their odds were above $4-1. From memory he was up around $500 in a week but that was helped a reasonable amount by a $25-1 winner on one of the days. Anyway I doubt we'd move the markets much at all really given then number of TAB's, bookies and online agencies around - unless say 20-30 of us all bet $100 each on a weekday meeting.