A Different Form of Trading

Pete I'm still looking at it.

What's the bet size?
What's your capital required?
I note a lot of what seems to be $20 ish losses
And some great $300 ish wins that's 15:1
With an expectancy of over $23 for each $ risked--- WOW.

I used to punt semi-professionally before I became a full time trader (which I did out of circumstance more than anything).

It taught me all the stuff about expectancy and prepared me to become profitable in the markets striaght off the bat.

Now-a-days I'm looking to punt a bit, semi-professionally.... or just for fun really, again so a timely post.

As far as systems not lasting, racing is different IMO as being able to successfully rate horses and look for odds anomalies is more akin to market making or a sort of risk arbitrage.

Again IMO, as long as one has the ability to rate horses properly (a skill), one can always make a buck.

I know guys who've done it long term (admittedly with up and downs) and it has continued to work over decades.

FWIW

How scalable is this? If you grow your account and start betting $5k on a 20-1 horse, do you move the market?

Regardless, your approach looks fantastic and it is something all serious traders or gamblers should aim for. Great stuff.

craft - Haven't been following the court case but I only do this for a bit of fun, at the moment I don't have plans to make a living from it but if I somehow got to that stage I guess i'd cross that hurdle when I got to it. Its hard enough for people to make a living from sports betting given the cuts that agencies take before the pools are even formed so its a bit harsh to start slapping them with tax as well.

peter2 - I'm more then aware that it can't last in its current format, but even if it gets down to producing a stead 40%+ POT over the long-term i'd be more than happy. I'll update this thread from time to time so people can see if the Strike Rate or Odds decline over the long-term. I'd expect that the strike rate might normalise to around the 30-35% mark, but I expect the odds to remain at maybe the $7-8 mark as the purpose of my system is to get value on higher odds.

tech/a - Average bet size is currently $14.82, with the charts/stats i've posted its based on a $10 betting unit and then adjust the staking depending on the 'value' that my spreadsheet finds. The more value in the odds, the more I bet as re-iterated by the article I linked to earlier in this thread of the interview with Alan Woods. This is the approach he used to maximise gains on the biggest value where the public wasn't betting. It worked for him and seems to be working for me. Capital required can be whatever the person betting wishes to make their bankroll. Most agencies accept $1 bets now, so you could even start my system with $50 and go from there. As I said the max drawdown so far is 18% so you have a lot of room to move thus far. haha your right, expectancy is amazing at the moment, I don't see it lasting that high but can imagine it still being quite good as horse racing can be lucrative if you can get it right.

WayneL - If I did it for a day job i'm sure I could improve my spreadsheet ten-fold. But in its current simple form it seems to be doing the job so far. Will be interesting to see how it goes in the upcoming spring carnival as it seems to perform best on Good/Dead tracks. So once were finished with winter im hoping it starts to perform with steady profits again.

skc - that is one issue, there are people on the forums where I post and read who do this professionally. Some with betting bots that run 24/7, others who simply get up in the morning and work it like a 9-5 day. Most of these people have been banned from a number of betting agencies and sites. So betting that amount of money may be a struggle but it could probably still be worked one way or another.

skc said:

How scalable is this? If you grow your account and start betting $5k on a 20-1 horse, do you move the market?

Regardless, your approach looks fantastic and it is something all serious traders or gamblers should aim for. Great stuff.

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You'll move the market on the tote for sure.... unless the pool is very large. It would be a drop in the ocean in a Melbourne Cup market. In some markets your kid's lunch money would bring it in several points.

If you're betting size, go with the bookies.

Wow Kermit - great system. I suspect if i had stats like that i would be stacking my bankroll and betting a lot bigger right now. Why aren't you?

jersey10 said:

Wow Kermit - great system. I suspect if i had stats like that i would be stacking my bankroll and betting a lot bigger right now. Why aren't you?

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Exactly. Role it out and hit'em.

Nice Kermit.

As a punter from way back (not now) im in disbelief of those stats (sorry for my scepticism)...the scatter just seems to be too consistent for any system picking 1 runner in a race and win betting only.

What's the average losing streak?

So_Cynical said:

Nice Kermit.

As a punter from way back (not now) im in disbelief of those stats (sorry for my scepticism)...the scatter just seems to be too consistent for any system picking 1 runner in a race and win betting only.

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You're skeptical? Looks like you and me are the only ones. CAGR% of 30,000%. What's most interesting of all is seeing some of ASF's self-proclaimed experts jumping in and lapping it up. All you need is a scatter plot and a fancy graph and they think it's real.

Kermit's either selling something or he has major calculation errors. I know a professional horse gambler who spends 30 hours a week doing video analysis. He just smiled when I told him.

Mods - thread needs to be removed.

Gringotts Bank said:

Mods - thread needs to be removed.

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Why? Kermit has provided analysis and asked for opinions, no different (in fact better analysis) than the vast majority of threads here.

Over time those stats will probably decrease and Kermit has said so himself, he has also said that he is in disbelief as to the current stats.

This is a great thread imo and it is good to see quality discussion. If you think he is wrong, then why not provide a few reasonings as opposed to just saying that in your experience it has to be wrong? Or point out where his calculation errors may be

Gringotts Bank said:

You're skeptical? Looks like you and me are the only ones. CAGR% of 30,000%. What's most interesting of all is seeing some of ASF's self-proclaimed experts jumping in and lapping it up. All you need is a scatter plot and a fancy graph and they think it's real.

Kermit's either selling something or he has major calculation errors.

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You may be right Gringotts Bank but unlike you I've seen results like this in trading.

Most likely not scalable or will fall down given enough time.

prawn_86 said:

Why? Kermit has provided analysis and asked for opinions, no different (in fact better analysis) than the vast majority of threads here.

Over time those stats will probably decrease and Kermit has said so himself, he has also said that he is in disbelief as to the current stats.

This is a great thread imo and it is good to see quality discussion. If you think he is wrong, then why not provide a few reasonings as opposed to just saying that in your experience it has to be wrong? Or point out where his calculation errors may be

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30,000% CAGR%. Had he said 30% I might have read on.

Anyone who buys that is living in a fantasy land. There's no quality discussion. All I see is people saying WOW! The level of gullibility is astounding. If this sort of thread is allowed, it's a poor reflection on ASF.

Trembling Hand said:

... I've seen results like this in trading.

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Uh huh. 30,000%. I think you've just blown all your credibility in one fell swoop.

Gringotts Bank said:

Uh huh. 30,000%. I think you've just blown all your credibility in one fell swoop.

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You having a bad day GB?

Gringotts Bank said:

30,000% CAGR%. Had he said 30% I might have read on.

Anyone who buys that is living in a fantasy land. There's no quality discussion. All I see is people saying WOW! The level of gullibility is astounding. If this sort of thread is allowed, it's a poor reflection on ASF.

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So your bias of previous experience means that it just cannot be possible? No matter what. Ever.

Same people said the same thing about flying i guess. I personally have never seen anyone teleport, or time travel, but it may be possible, who knows. And if someone presented a good case then my belief of it being possible would increase.

Show us where in the site rules and T&C that this thread breaks any of them. Lets get back ont opic though please and if you find anywhere this breraks the rules please PM me

Trembling Hand said:

You having a bad day GB?

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What if I am?

Now a question for you: Are you living in a fantasy world?

Trembling Hand said:

You may be right Gringotts Bank but unlike you I've seen results like this in trading.

Most likely not scalable or will fall down given enough time.

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Gringotts Bank said:

Uh huh. 30,000%. I think you've just blown all your credibility in one fell swoop.

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I too. Obviously never done it myself but i have seen verified broker statements for accounts that have done this. As TH says it's usually not scalable and as soon as you try and put a bit of volume into it returns drop off dramatically

Gringotts Bank said:

What if I am?

Now a question for you: Are you living in a fantasy world?

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Maybe. Will have to wait till Kermit gets back to us. But since you're the great system designer, as we have seen the last oh... 2 years!, can you calculate the CAGR% for me for these systems,

$1,000 to $51,000 in a week over 300 trades?

$1,200 to $26,000 in two days over 200 trades?

$4,000 to $36,000 in three days over 200 trades?

Trembling Hand said:

$1,000 to $51,000 in a week over 300 trades?

$1,200 to $26,000 in two days over 200 trades?

$4,000 to $36,000 in three days over 200 trades?

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Some of those stats look quite familiar to me. Where have i seen them before...

Trembling Hand said:

Maybe. Will have to wait till Kermit gets back to us. But since you're the great system designer, as we have seen the last oh... 2 years!, can you calculate the CAGR% for me for these systems,

$1,000 to $51,000 in a week over 300 trades?

$1,200 to $26,000 in two days over 200 trades?

$4,000 to $36,000 in three days over 200 trades?

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Wow. Another wow. So you're wealthier than Bill Gates by now. Keep it up.