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95% ASX100 success rate

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RobertoHood

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9 August 2015
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Hello,

Over the past 4 years i have been working to develop a system that can predict weekly moves tracking all companies listed in the ASX100.

I have refined this now to the point where i get on average an accuracy rate of 95.65%

With percentage gains averaging 1.62% per company per week.

Tonight i will list the companies which have triggered BUY in the system based on last weeks date.

The only rule of the system is to buy on the open of monday morning, and either sell at the close of friday , or sell when your stock gain reaches a level where you want to take profits.


Of the 23 buy signals i got last week, only 1 was not successful. Resulting in a -2.31% loss if you held until the close on friday, but profits were there during the midweek.

So basically the system can predict stocks which are going to end the week in a positive. But not by how much , so you will still need to bring you own risk management to the table.

Kind regards
Robertohood
 
Sounds interesting.

Over what period did you test the method to determine a 95% success rate?
What program did you use to determine the result.
Is the method week in week out trading?
A 1:20 loss rate is remarkable.
Following with interest.

As you say risk management is the responsibility of the users
But are you saying all stock selected will remain in profit until Friday or
Some will go into drawdown but finish positive by Friday
Or some will start positive and if exited before they turn negative within that week
Will be in the group of winners.if not results may be less than 95%,

Is success of 95% reliant on excellent money management?
 
Sounds like "here we ago again" tech.....
 

Hi tech,

I used excel and some simple formulas, averages, standard deviation etc using the last 3 months to date of all 100 components of the ASX100.

I say risk management is up to the user because i have found most will end the week in a positive (when i say most only 1 from 23 didnt last week). Some will raise as much as +3 or +4% during the week , but will close up +.69% .

Still a profit, but i know which one i would prefer!
 
Unfortunately 3 mths testing in excel is hardly exhaustive.
What people need to understand is standard oscillators have been around for 30
Yrs. In that time and in particular the last 15 yrs every oscillator combination known to
Man has been tested. From what I have found there is no statistical edge displayed
In standard oscillator type systems over a long term.

However I'm still very interested in anything posted by anyone who has the
Guts to post it up,
 

Hey tech,

My system uses no oscillators at all, i realised a long time ago that for me personally they just take attention away from the real information, my system doesnt even require a single chart.

3 months is not a lot of back testing data, but on a week by week basis , spread across all sectors so far a 95% success rate has emerged, and i guess the theory of "edges work until they dont" might ring true here.


But time will tell, and by next friday the numbers will soon let me know .
 

Also very interested, good that you are posting it too, even if it doesn't work out.

What made you open an account and post this?
 
3 months on a week by week basis is 12 periods... 12!

I can flip 12 heads in a row. Across sectors doesn't mean too much as there is a lot of correlation. eg a breakdown system that spits out oil stock shorts day after day for the past 6 months.

Why not push your system back a few years and see how it fares?
Good luck
 
RobertoHood said:
Over the past 4 years i have been working to develop a system that can predict weekly moves tracking all companies listed in the ASX100.

Tonight i will list the companies which have triggered BUY in the system based on last weeks date.
Click to expand...

Congratulations, eagerly awaiting your predictions for next week....then prepare to have your system picked to bits.
 

How do you define the take profit level? Does taking profit during the week enhances or decreases performance?

How many of last weeks 23 buy signal involved taking profit vs holding til the end of the week?

I am asking because it makes a huge difference between whether this is a set-and-forget system vs something that requires close monitoring during the week.
 
Hey guys as promised, the listed are current BUY signals for next weeks open (10/08/15)

My system only scans the ASX100, and the BUY signal only predicts stocks which will end the week positive... not by %gain.

Purchases are to be made at the open monday morning and sold prior to close Friday (14/08/15)

CTX
LLC
NAB
OSH
REC
S32

 
Two points I can add to this thread:

1) A 95% winning average does not necessarily constitute a positive expectancy system - I can easily design a system with a 95% win rate yet it's a net loser (negative expectancy), it only takes one really large loser.

2) Using 3 months of data, to validate a system is very insufficient - enormous risk of curve fitting (test the system on a larger out of sample data set to confirm validity).
 

So it's up to the trader to initiate a sell.

Before Friday.
Basically your saying that 95% of these will be in profit at sometime
Over the next week---and if sold when in profit and before Friday
Will have a 95% hit rate ---- in this case no losers

This is open to massive variants of interpretation.
The perfect method of trading these stocks
WILL NOT BE KNOWN until Fridays close.
It cannot be known before hand.
 
RobertoHood said:
Hey guys as promised, the listed are current BUY signals for next weeks open (10/08/15)

My system only scans the ASX100, and the BUY signal only predicts stocks which will end the week positive...
LLC
NAB
OSH
REC
S32
Click to expand...

The only way this can be tested is to use the open on Monday and close on Friday...as you state above. You can't just say that each stock will be in profit "at some stage during the week". Sorry to be sceptical but sounds like somebody in the "beginners" cycle. Also, the system needs to be tested going back years...not weeks.
 

I read what he has said as that 95% will close on Friday in positive territory. So it may drop Monday morning, spend all week negative but then rally back to a profit by the end of the week. Or it might go gangbusters and then pull back but still close at a profit.

Echoing others sentiments that 12 weeks is nowhere near enough and if it was this simple then the risk management side of things with a 95% success rate should be relatively easy...
 
Sharemarket game is on, so I've entered the orders for those stocks and we can see how it goes.
 
DoctorDoom said:
A 95% winning average does not necessarily constitute a positive expectancy system - I can easily design a system with a 95% win rate yet it's a net loser (negative expectancy), it only takes one really large loser.
Click to expand...

A 95% winning average should deliver positive expectancy, i would reckon one would have to be pretty stupid to lose money with a 95% winning average, especially if the time frame was less than 3 months.
 
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