$5000 to $50000 in two years - let the odyssey begin

[tech/a]

You’ve looked at McLaren, it’s all there, the challenge is to really understand in practice what he’s on about, and how to use it effectively. That’s the problem, a lot is based on the creative side of the mind working freely (at least that’s the conclusion I came to).

How’s that for a start...

Followed McLaren many years ago when he was posting daily market summary's.Did so for 9 mths.

I found he altered the goal posts when predictions werent adheared to,and that was pretty well everyone.

There was and still is "No Practical use" as a trading methodology for predictive GANN

But happy to have it demonstrated to me.

 

[Magdoran]

Followed McLaren many years ago when he was posting daily market summary's.Did so for 9 mths.

I found he altered the goal posts when predictions werent adheared to,and that was pretty well everyone.

There was and still is "No Practical use" as a trading methodology for predictive GANN

But happy to have it demonstrated to me.

Hello tech/a,


You and I have essentially done the same thing. We have each built our own knowledge of the market through experience, and developed an approach suited to our personality.

Where our approaches differ is that the system/mechanical approaches are generally easier for the general population to grasp and implement in terms of time and effort initially. The intuitive/discretionary/forecasting styles (and there are a host of very different approaches) tend to take more time and effort to develop, and are more reliant on the capacity of the individual.

But this is a gross generalisation, and I suspect in your case tech, you’ve moved well beyond a black box approach welding all sorts of modifications on as you’ve developed. Interestingly, and this may come as a surprise, but I actually believe that you are strongly driven by your intuition (certainly in business), and that ironically your system approach is the result of strong hunches you’ve had. Sure you’ve done the Rage “Prove - Disprove” waltz, but driven by a determination to succeed – a core emotion.

Let’s put all of this in a technical analysis in context. I believe that market knowledge is imperfect and incomplete. Technical Analysis attempts to synthesise and graphically represent the aggregation of market transactions on a chart in order to interpret the available price information.

Rather than post a “War and Peace” response (professor_frink might breath a sigh of relief), I might just break down a few concepts for you to mull over in pieces…

What I want to do is to recognise that different people have different talents, then move onto a synopsis of what I do, followed by a brief outline of McLaren and why you may have come to the conclusions you have, and venture a different interpretation:

People have unique abilities and preferences:
Everyone has their own preferences and unique talent. The way you and I work are unique. Different people have different sets of skills and capabilities. I suspect this stems from a combination of genetic predisposition, environment, application to learning, which is in part affected by access to knowledge, and by the quality of the available knowledge. Add to this psychological disposition, drive, cunning, ingenuity, determination, and perhaps Douglas’ concepts on psychological make up should be included.

So, tech, you may have already found what works for you, hence what I do may well be totally alien since you and I in some of our choices are polar opposites (this doesn’t mean one is better than the other – just different – hence the idea of diversity and “horses for courses”): You seem to have a preference for System/mechanical approaches, while I lean more to Gann/Elliott discretionary/intuitive approaches – maybe it’s just in our make up.

Following this post I’ll flesh out the rest of my thinking for today for you to consider.


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Followed McLaren many years ago when he was posting daily market summary's.Did so for 9 mths.

I found he altered the goal posts when predictions werent adheared to,and that was pretty well everyone.

There was and still is "No Practical use" as a trading methodology for predictive GANN

But happy to have it demonstrated to me.

Hello tech/a,


Bunyip got me thinking about simplicity recently, and now that I think of it, what I do in terms of T/A at its core is really straight forward:

• Identify the type of trend in the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
• Look for tradeable patterns – find a trend.
• Imagine how the underlying might trend into the future
• Map out a plan of action including entry points, failure criteria and profit taking; based on pattern, time and price. (Look for counter trends to enter, and set exit rules).

To identify patterns, you essentially need a technical analysis “vocabulary” based on researching how different markets move. At its core is learning to recognise counter trends, bar chart and volume, types of trend, topping and basing patterns, consolidations (accumulation and distribution), wave structure, price extension/retracement ranges, and later time cycles where appropriate.

Try visualising the future like Napoleon. Battles are chaotic and fluid, so is the market. Having a fluid battle plan was at the core of his military victories. Napoleon would study the ground, study the enemy (both the nature of the opposing commander, as well as the strengths and weakness of the opposing force), account for logistics, environment, morale, fatigue and would consider with great care the timing of different units tactics.

So it is with the market, it is dynamic, and like many chaos and quantum theories (Like Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle for example) as events unfold, there are countless possibilities. So, I believe that a plan should be intuitively developed to account for a plausible and workable range of contingencies. If a pattern yields a potential entry, the idea is to bolt in a range of exit strategies including price and time points and patterns. Specific examples are to use McLaren’s partial profit approach at key points of support (if short) or resistance (if long). Then identify re-entry points if correct, and exit points if wrong.

The stress is on assessing probabilities, and looking for points in time or price or both to take profits, or when certain patterns emerge when the trend you are trading becomes at risk. When trading options it is exiting these on strength if long an option, and aiming to enter when the volatility is favourable for the chosen strategy.

Underlying this is studying lots of charts in different time frames in different markets, and learning how markets have traded in the past, picking up a “vocabulary” of patterns and clues. Then it’s looking at various concepts such as wave structures (Elliott Wave for instance), time cycles, price range extensions and retracements.

The idea is to map out how the underlying might behave based on the patterns that you see, and then establishing entry criteria and exit criteria. You actually define a unique exit for each trade, but using your own intuitively built methodology. The core idea is that every situation is unique, and the challenge is to assess the probabilities and develop a fluid trading plan to suit your understanding of the market in a way that gives the trader an edge.

Grasping the concept:
Did you attend any of McLaren’s seminars, and/or study the two sets of DVDs, and/or the read the book “Gann Made Easy”? If not, there are a lot of concepts you need to understand, and just reading his musings would really not make much sense in isolation. In addition, if you did do all the above, did you actually read all the Gann original works armed with this knowledge, and study them?

If you have not gone through this process, then my trying to give you examples are not really going to help if we don’t share the same building blocks and “vocabulary”.

I know you’ve said you were following the reports at one stage. Just reading the reports in isolation is not sufficient to understanding the way he asses probability, or fully understand the analysis or the system behind his “musings”.

McLaren’s reports are not telling you how he is trading. He’s musing about what he’s seeing and thinking for educational purposes. What you may interpret as shifting goal posts I interpret as him reacting to events as they unfold and re-evaluating the probabilities, essentially discarding or demoting the possibility of a scenario, and postulating what is likely from the information available. Like any good trader one has to be open to a range of possibilities.

If you read between the lines, and understand the material, it becomes much clearer what he’s getting at. But you have to understand the source material to get it.

One more quick post to go…


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Followed McLaren many years ago when he was posting daily market summary's.Did so for 9 mths.

I found he altered the goal posts when predictions werent adheared to,and that was pretty well everyone.

There was and still is "No Practical use" as a trading methodology for predictive GANN

But happy to have it demonstrated to me.

Hello Tech,


It is really difficult to put all the core concepts that I know into a post or two on a site like this and do it justice. There are hours of material to cover, and in this medium a lot of critical ideas just won’t translate well.

What might be worthwhile is to find out if you really want to know more about this, since you already have a very mature system, and perhaps some of the style I have adopted may not translate easily onto your approach, unless you’re looking to radically change.

If you’re curious, sure, go for it and look at the material. If you’ve done that, I’d be happy to have a dialogue with you, and even sign post some avenues for you to think about. But this approach in part embraces the concept of the individual building a store house of knowledge and experience to draw from (much as you have already done in your own way).

What you need to do is to think about wether you should just stick to what you have and maybe incrementally bolt new ideas onto it, or if you want to look at radically different ideas, and incorporating them on a wider scale into your current outlook…

These are serious choices for you tech since you have a well established “home” at Reefcap, and an established reputation with your techtrader system. As bunyip says, some people just find a niche and keep doing it – maybe you’ve found your niche already? Key question: Are you willing to push the envelope with an open but discerning mind?

You may not feel comfortable with this alternative approach, it may not suit you. On the other hand, you may see what you’re doing from a different angle, and this might really benefit your perspective and open some possibilities you hadn’t considered - you may find a chink of inspiration. Have a think about what you want to do here. If this is just a bit of sport, hey, we can entertain Wayne some more… If you’re serious I’ve given you the basis of a roadmap here to be expanded on. Your choice.


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

I'll have a love affair with any trading method which is simple and very profitable.

My approach for many years has been, and still is, to find strong new trends, wait for a brief retracement, then enter the trade once the retracement ends and the trend resumes.
That is precisely what the Darvas method does......even though you seem to have yourself convinced that it's a highly risky breakout strategy.

As I said in an earlier post, I don't trade Darvas exclusively, my approach includes ideas I've picked up from several methods, combined with a couple of my own ideas.

Bunyip

You know bunyip,


Ive been thinking about comments that you and coyote have made, and on reflection I think I’m going to recant on a couple of perspectives I had.

I was musing through borders again (my wife loves that place, so I get to review different books while we have coffee), and I picked up Wilson and Guppy, and realised much of the way I work now was a process of looking at everything that moved.

Now that I think about it, maybe I had to try these approaches out to find what did work for me, even if I threw the lion’s share of it out later. So, maybe it is a good thing for newer players to at least have these concepts in their “technical analysis vocabulary”?

The jury is still out for me though... Those who are familiar with my music learning analogy would understand my emphasis on getting the emotions right from the start.

Maybe newer players should look at all those basic books, and try them all to learn. Perhaps this would give them a really good grounding, and allow them to walk through whichever door they wanted to. Hard to say.

I held the belief that using too many gizmo’s actually obscured the individuals ability to “see” the market… maybe you need to discover this by using the gizmo’s and then trying NOT using them. Maybe Watkins isn’t bad for beginners in that context.

Just thinking out loud…


Hmmmm, if bunyip thinks that there is something to Darvas, maybe I need to revisit it again.

Bunyip, never let it be said that I’d stand in the way of true love. You have my blessing! (hehehe).

Just a quick clarification. Did you go through the McLaren DVDs? If you did, what did you make of his comment of buying breakouts?


Regards


Magdoran

 

[tech/a]

Mogdoran.

Its Simple.
All I and many others here would like to see is a practical demonstration of Gann trading (other than swingtrading) right here.

Ive been able to do it for 4 yrs on Reef,why cant ONE Gann trader do it for say 10 trades on a forum?

There is always so much complexity in replies I honestly doubt Gann can be traded profitably (Consistently)---as even Gann traders cant get it to perform---consistantly.

10 trades show us how its done?---demonstrate.
Win lose or draw.

I have no choices to make,Im just interested like everyone else in seeing a practioner of a methodology at work.

There has to surely be one of you out there.

 

[robots]

hello

put it all into the banks, continually

cba been returning around 34% pa for many many years

forget the trading

thankyou
robots

 

[bunyip]

Bunyip,

(?)

Not to criticize your approach (which I think is absolutely fine within the context of trend following), but I thought Darvas was a breakout of all time highs, with a few pattern filters ( the box setup etc )

I've never read the book, but this is from what several people I know who hav e read the book.

Just seeking clarification.

Cheers

Wayne

Strong trends accompanied by surging volume are the starting point for Darvas analysis. Any reference to a previous high, whether it's an all time high or 12 month high or whatever, is for trend identification, the thinking being that a stock must be strongly trending if it's made an all time high or a new high for a specified time period. The system doesn't automatically buy if price breaks above an all time high or six month high...it needs to form a Darvis box, which can only occur if there's a retracement within the trend. And then for the entry to be triggered, the retracement must end and the trend must resume by moving above the top of the box.
Watkins and Guppy in my view give a better analysis of the Darvas system than Darvas himself gave. In addition they've added a thing or two that Darvis didn't have access to.
Personally I don't think a stock is necessarily trending strongly just because it's making a 3 month high or 12 month high or whatever. It could be staggering sideways at or near a 12 month high, and every so often poking it's nose above the 12 month high, then pulling back into it's trading range again.
Such a stock would clearly be in a flat trend rather than a bullish trend, even though it's trading at high levels. I use a couple of my own criteria for identifying strong trends...I believe these do a better job of trend identification than a break above the high of a specified period of time.

Although I don't think he actually says so in his book, Frank Watkins told me in person when I spoke to him at the Brisbane Traders Expo, that he's quite happy for the stock to be making 30 day highs prior to the formation of a Darvas box. During this rising price action prior to the formation of the box, he also likes to see surging volume and rising On Balance Volume.
Basically he likes to see a sleepy stock 'wake up' by surging in price and volume, with price going out to at least a 30 day high. This surge tells him a strong new trend is underway. Then when there's a pullback, the top of this pullback becomes the top of a box (providing it fits a couple of simple criteria). The bottom of this same pullback forms the bottom boundary of the box, (again, providing it meets certain criteria). When the box is formed, the entry signal is a tick above the top of the box.
In effect the system buys when price moves above the most recent resistance level, i.e. above the top of the last pullback.
In view of this requirement that it must break out above the top of the box to trigger an entry, I guess it could be argued that it's a breakout system.
But then, it could also be argued that Elder's Triple Screen system is also a breakout system, since it puts a buy order above the second last bar of a pullback that's still underway, and buys when price breaks out above the second last bar.
However, in reality what both the Darvas and Elder systems are doing is firstly identifying a trend, secondly waiting for a pullback, then buying when the pullback ends and the trend resumes.
This all pretty much fits in with the description Darvas gave of his first couple of trades with his system. He noticed a couple of stocks that started surging in price and volume. He waited for them to pause briefly, then he bought them once they resumed their trends. From memory he made no reference to whether they were at an all time high or 6 month high or whatever.

Cheers
Bunyip

 

[bunyip]

You know bunyip,

Just a quick clarification. Did you go through the McLaren DVDs? If you did, what did you make of his comment of buying breakouts?


Regards


Magdoran

Magdoran

I bought and studied McLaren's 'Gann Made Easy' course. In addition I've been given access to various McLaren materials by friends who've spent a fair bit of money on his courses. That was about eight years ago and in all honesty I don't recall if I've seen his DVD's. Maybe not, since DVD's probably weren't widely in use eight years ago.
I don't rate McLaren as highly as you do. In some ways I think he's trying to reinvent the wheel. He's unnecessarily complicating what is essentially very simple.
He said himself that the people who've made money selling Gann courses outnumber those who have made money by trading Gann methodology.

Like Tech, I've yet to find anyone who can demonstrate trading proficiency by using Gann technique, and has the results to prove that he's made consistently excellent returns over many years.
I've known several blokes who claimed to have repeatedly picked the top or bottom of a trend or market by using Gann analysis, yet they never could produce the sort of trading results that would have supported their claims about their forecasting ability.

Many years ago I attended an ATAA presentation by Neil Costa, when he was employed by SITM. It was early in the year, and he gave us a number of Gann based forecasts for the All Ords for the coming year.
I followed all of those forecasts over the next nine months or so to see how accurate he was.
He was so far out, it was a joke.

Bunyip

 

[wavepicker]

Hello Bunyip,

Maybe not, since DVD's probably weren't widely in use eight years ago.
I don't rate McLaren as highly as you do. In some ways I think he's trying to reinvent the wheel. He's unnecessarily complicating what is essentially very simple.

I have seen the Mclaren "Foundations for Succesfull Trading ". This is part 1 of 2 part DVD course that Mclarens sells. This DVD barely deals with any Gann Methodologies. It primarily prepares one on how to trade from a bar chart and volume alone. It introduces to the trader such things as dealing with:
-identifying types of trends ie normal, creeping, and blowoffs, consolidations
-identifying countertrend moves and learning to position correctly from a counter trend move
-looking at the pattern of the trend(not things like H&S) but how the market is trending
-things to look out for when entering a trend and staying with that trend until it becomes at risk of ending
-volume
-wave structure(this is a very simlified form of EW)
-momentum
-price level

The main theme of the DVD is to recognize and trade good strong trending markets BUNYIP!!!

There is NOTHING complicated about this DVD. It is great for both beginners and more experienced traders alike. It's main purpose as the title says is as a "foundation" or base before moving onto more advanced TA studies.
I met Bill about 4 years ago and I also wanted to buy his part 2 DVD on the Gann Time Factor. The man talked me out of it!!! I was using EW as my primary trading tool(and still do) back then, but all I knew was how to apply the rules and guidelines of the wave principle. I didn't know enough about how prices moved. Once you know how trade from a barchart and volume alone, then you can move onto Elliott he said. Things will make much more sense then. I took the mans advice and my trading has changed dramatically over the last 4 years.

What has helped me is applying what I learnt in fast markets like the FX and futures markets. It's amazing how quickly you can learn simply by looking at how and why prices move. I would recommend it to anyone. I have studied many courses and books over the years and this would have to be one of the best in my opinion.

Guys using mechanical systems in long positions on stoxx are kidding themselves. Especially when we have a bull market with a trend as strong as we have seen in the last 3 years. You don't need a mechanical system when 95% of stocks in a sector rising. All you need is eyes to look at a chart.
When the market starts to get choppy and reverses trend is a completely different story. Learn how prices move!! Learn to trade the market both ways and to recognize when trends are at risk of ending.

He said himself that the people who've made money selling Gann courses outnumber those who have made money by trading Gann methodology.

This probably true of most people selling books and courses on any anyways

Many years ago I attended an ATAA presentation by Neil Costa, when he was employed by SITM. It was early in the year, and he gave us a number of Gann based forecasts for the All Ords for the coming year.
I followed all of those forecasts over the next nine months or so to see how accurate he was.
He was so far out, it was a joke.

I would have to agree with you there, but in my opinion there are probably better practitioners out there. (No offence to the guy as he is not around to defend himself anymore!!) HOWEVER, I have listened to some of Watkins forecasts and they are not much better!!

According to tech/a Mclaren always changes the goal posts. Well hell, Radge is not much better, it's called "adaptive analysis" or so he says!!
The market service that does not make mistakes does not exist. Long term success in the market demands recognition that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to asses future probabilities


cheers

 

[tech/a]

Long term success in the market demands recognition that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to asses future probabilities

Hell I dont mind error.
All I /We wish to see is practical application of Gann in trading.

Like the practitioners who sell the long winded courses,there is far more rhetoric than practical application.

 

[bunyip]

Wavepicker

That DVD of McLarens sound like useful material, particularly if, as you say, its main theme is to recognize and trade good strong trending markets.
In fact I'm reasonably sure I've seen it, I believe it may have been among the materials my mates lent me.
You're right, not all of Bill's stuff is complex. I recall him telling me in person over the phone that price and volume are more important than anything else.
However, he does get into more complex stuff as well - unnecessarily in my view.
I'm not surprised he talked you out of buying his two part DVD, he's a genuine bloke and not at all the type who will sell you something just for the purpose of lining his own pocket. In that respect he's very different to SITM and many others who sell courses.
I actually like Bill McLaren - I've met him a few times and spoken to him on the phone on other occasions, and always found him helpful. And I don't in any way criticise his level of knowledge, it's just that I think it's unnecessary to go beyond simplicity in trading.

Interesting comment you made about the ease of trading over the last few years when the market has been bullish. Yes, you need to learn how to trade the market both ways, recognise when trends are showing certain characteristics such as potentially coming to an end, blowoff moves, etc etc.
A competent trend trader can do all that. He'll make money in any market conditions. I made good money from playing the short side in the bear market of 2002 for example, when most people were losing their shirts. I'm not trying to big note myself here, just making the point that if you're in tune with the market and in particular, in tune with the strongly trending stocks in the market, then you can trade profitably regardless of market conditions.
There are traders making money right now in this choppy market. I'm one of them, and I know many others. Unfortunately however, most people seem to get carved up by choppy markets and bearish markets.

You mentioned Watkins forecasts. What forecasts are you taking about? To the best of my knowledge he doesn't do forecasts. He may have opinions about the future direction of a market or stock, (don't we all!) but he doesn't trade from forecasts. He reacts to what the market is doing.

Bunyip

 

[wavepicker]

Hi Bunyip,

To be quite honest with you I am not sure if he makes forecasts or just a commentary about the All Ordinaries Index as whole.

I have just listened to him talking about the market at various occasions and what he expected from it in the near term future.
These were links that were sent to me by fellow tarders that currently use or have used his services.
I cannot comment on his products or system as I have never seen or tried it, and at this stage have no need to.

You mention the need to use a system/method that is simple. This is ideal, but it all depends if you are comfortable using a particular methodology. What others find complex, others may find easy.

Personally as well as looking at the pattern of the trend, I like to use EW and Cyclic analysis. Over the years I have trained myself to look at the market from an EW perspective/Cycles perspective.
Chart formations which have stood the test of time are as a result of interactions between price cycles. Not only does the cyclic approach explain the formations, but thinking cycles leads to easier and more accurate interpretations. One of the problems with EW is that it leaves you watching and waiting to see if a pattern is in fact going to be completed as there may be a number of alternate counts . However thinking in terms of cycles allows you to tell ahead of time whether the formation will occur. This can be valuable when assesing the probablities of a market trend ending, and helping you determine the probable type of pattern to follow. This can make the world of difference as to how you approach the market with a potential trade.

I am looking for markets and patterns of the trend that adhere to EW rules and guidelines, and more importantly they must have the "right look". It's all about stacking the cards in you favour. Being patient and taking what I call the 80/20 or high probability trades, whereby you have a chance at perhaps capturing a very large portion of a swing, not just part of the pie. On the other hand, your trend following techniques in many cases will stop you out and whipsaw you in a choppy market. Out of ten trades for examlpe you end up with 5 stopouts, 3 small gains and 2 outliers to win the bread. Nothing wrong with that, but I think better and more consistant results are possible. A lot of it has to do with the psychological makeup of the trader however.

All of this is not complicated but they can be quite time consuming. like any profession it requires work, study, commitment, perseverence and discipline. Unfortuntely most new traders are not prepared to put in the hard work. It's estimated that of the ones that do succeed it takes a good 7-10 years and probably 50K in losses if not more in some cases before it gets drummed into them what they should, and should not be doing.

Cheers

 

[Magdoran]

Hello bunyip,


How interesting that you’ve talked with McLaren. Small world, isn’t it?

I was wondering, what was the most beneficial source you have found for your technical analysis?

I hope it’s a case of “great minds think alike” rather than “fools seldom differ” when it comes to wavepicker and I, because we share a lot of T/A concepts via McLaren’s foundation DVD and methods. The DVD is nothing like the book “Gann Made Easy” which was published much earlier, and is not as polished or coherent as the DVD sets.

As wavepicker says the foundation DVD is pure charting, probably the best I’ve ever seen, and so full of subtleties that you can play it over and over, and still pick up all sorts of observations. It covers all the ground listed in wavepicker’s post, and seeing it visually and being able to play it back, pause it, rewind it, etc, really helps to absorb the concepts that you might have missed in a seminar.

The Time Factor was the one that blew my mind though, but it is strongly Gann focused using concepts from the first DVD set. While it is involved, and there is a lot of ground covered, I must say I learnt the most out of this DVD than any other source on technical analysis, and I’ve probably read to the same level as you, give or take.

Interestingly, your description of the Darvas box, actually parallels one of the patterns McLaren identifies. However, using straight charting, you may actually get an earlier entry just looking at the trend and picking the counter trend, but then I suspect you already know this.

I’d be interested what you thought if you looked at the DVD, everyone who I know that has done it has really benefited their T/A (although you’d probably already know much of the content from the materials you had – but maybe not…).

Also, just out of interest, you mentioned Gilmore, what did you think of his materials – did you read the two pieces of geometry of the markets?

Not sure I know of Landry or Arnold you were referring to – anything worthwhile here? Also, you mention Gartley, did you find the shapes of value?

Thanks again for sharing your views, and I certainly think we covered a lot of ground. From my perspective it has been very productive, and hope it has for you too.

Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

For those who are interested I posted up an example as requested by tech/a in the “Improving Chart Analysis” thread (although I gave tech a hard time, but meant in good humour!).

 

[swingstar]

Not sure I know of Landry or Arnold you were referring to – anything worthwhile here? Also, you mention Gartley, did you find the shapes of value?

Mag, you would probably despise Landry.

His website is here: http://www.davelandry.com/

 

[Magdoran]

Mag, you would probably despise Landry.

His website is here: http://www.davelandry.com/

Hey Swingstar!


How are things going? Hope all is well.

Thanks for the update. What do you know about him? You know, I try to keep an open mind till I get the gist of what’s going on. I had a look at the website, but it didn’t tell me much, other than the usual marketing hype…

What’s the story, do you know?


Mag

 

[swingstar]

Hey Swingstar!


How are things going? Hope all is well.

Things are going pretty well. The McLaren DVD is so next on my to read err watch list.

Thanks for the update. What do you know about him? You know, I try to keep an open mind till I get the gist of what’s going on. I had a look at the website, but it didn’t tell me much, other than the usual marketing hype…

What’s the story, do you know?

I have both of his books, and they are fairly Guppy-esque (from what I know of Guppy), and pretty much breakout entry based. Both of which I know you aren't very fond of.

 

[proudwanderer]

I am in exactly the same situation as the OP.

I bought the Trading Tactics pack early December for $4000.

This includes:

- The Smarter Starter Pack
- 2-day Trading Tactics seminar
- Free 24-hr phone support
- Free repeat seminars

At the time it seemed like a great deal - I suppose the presenter's sales pitch was really good.

After going over the material for a month, I started to question whether my $4000 was buying a good value package as I felt the material didn't cover a lot of ground and I didn't like the fact that they will try to sell me the more advanced courses. A whole chapter of the 300 page manual is devoted to this - called Your Future Development (or something like that).

The manual is written in a simple narrative by David Bowden and it seems to me that scattered throughout, he likes to boast how accurate his predictions are, and how succesful he has become as a trader, and that you are part of his family now that you have bought his product.

Anyway, I did some research on the net about SITM and the starter pack in particular, and it seems that most "real" traders would not recommend it - not that the material is completely useless - but because it is a complete rip-off for what the price of it is.

In addition to the 300 page manual, you get 2 DVDs - which basically regurgitates the info in the manual, and a CD-ROM of exercises (and this is only 3.5MB so hardly much at all)

Then you have some graph paper and a poster of a chart.

After I have read some posts by Travis Morien, and found this thread, I have decided that I am going to do what the OP has done - return the material and get a refund.

However, I am still undecided if I should call them up and tell them I want to return it for a refund, or if I should just rock up to the 1st day of the seminar (which is this Friday) and return it there (as I have until 12pm to return it as the conditions stipulate)

I am leaning towards the latter - as I am not too confident of sending $4000 worth of material in the post.

So if the OP (and others who have returned it for a refund) is reading this could you answer some questions:

1. Do they ask you WHY you are dropping out and try to convince you to think otherwise?

2. What exactly happens at the seminar - can you just show up at 8.30AM and say you want to return it, or do you have to sit through several hours of the seminar and do the return at 11.30AM like banamate did?

3. Do you have to physically get up midway through the seminar (and before 12pm) and tell them that you want to drop out, or will the recess before 12pm and give participants a chance to decide if they want to continue to stay - or drop out and get a refund?

4. Do you just leave the material there with them?

5. Do you need to fill out certain forms or similar?

6. How long does it take them to get the refund to your credit card? Do the process it immediately? I read the refund policy on their website and there's no info about refunding at a seminar. They only have info about refund via post - that you have to send it back to them in Sydney via a Registered method, then they take about 3 days to do QA on their material and you will get a refund to the same card used for the purchase within 30 days.


Thanks all.

P.S.
I'm glad I found this forum, and will be visiting it more regularly for help in learning how to start trading.

 

[damok]

Don't fret mate, the return process was quite simple. All the people who want to return the package are given a form, and are processed after those who are staying. So arriving at 0830, I walked out by 0910 or so. They do ask why you are returning it, and I had no problem in giving them a number of reasons regarding the quality of support and the text itself. Obviously I didn't stay until the allowed lunchtime, but people have said that the first half a day is just selling the package to you again and how good it all is.

I got the refund within about a month. I still sometime recieve letters in the mail, but no one has rang me questioning my decision any further. In the end, the system is quite simple, and even without the software and learning package, I could still apply the principles with little difficulty.

I don't regret my decision to return it at all.

All the best,
damok.