2013 Federal Election: 7 September 2013

[Tink]

Then he should have acted sooner and had it in August or just left it at the 14th of September. Just seems weird to bring it forward a week

My opinion, I think he would have preferred the end of the year October/November so that he could go to the G20 meeting, as he said on the Saturday that he had no intentions yet, but I think he was told otherwise, now or never.
So much for him being in charge.

Thank God we didnt have to wait that long.

 

[db94]

http://www.news.com.au/national-new...tes-on-smooth-fm/story-fnho52ip-1226692048149

this is a classic. The Labor party trying to take credit for low interest rates

 

[boofhead]

http://www.news.com.au/national-new...tes-on-smooth-fm/story-fnho52ip-1226692048149

this is a classic. The Labor party trying to take credit for low interest rates

The coalition are happy to blame the Labor party for creating an economic crisis that requires the RBA to drop rates. At least it stopped their mantra that the interest rates will always be lower under a coalition government.

 

[sptrawler]

The coalition are happy to blame the Labor party for creating an economic crisis that requires the RBA to drop rates. At least it stopped their mantra that the interest rates will always be lower under a coalition government.

Yes talk about taking a statement out of context, what a joke.
The problem with that statement was, it was made when everyone expected the Australian economy to be growing. Which was a fair assumption, when you consider it is a large country with a small population and in a growth phase.

No one expected, in six short years of Labor, the economy could stall on most fronts.
Mining has contracted due to prices, but was being affected and slowing down, due to concern of the MRRT and reduction in mining projects.
Manufacturing has contracted faster than ever before.
Consumer confidence is the lowest it has been for years, effecting retail and investment.
The carbon tax has accelerated the change over from cheap electricity production, to high cost generation. Which has increased the cost to value adding industry.

The housing sector is priced at all time highs and the government expects it to be the next growth area. Well if that is the case, the economy is in a bad way, because incomes will have to skyrocket to support it.

Labor have managed to change a thriving economy, to a basket case in two terms of office and it will be difficult to turn it around IMO

They talk of the 'new jobs' to pick up the slack of the mining slowdown. The problem is the skill set and fabrication industry required to supporting mining, has nothing to offer the housing sector.
Once industries are shut down and the workforce laid off, it is usually uneconomical and it also takes a very strong business case, to re start them.
Talk about lost the plot, when the government is saying it is great people can borrow money at 60 year low interest rates. When the long term average is 3 times that rate, which it will return to.

 

[Calliope]

The coalition are happy to blame the Labor party for creating an economic crisis that requires the RBA to drop rates. At least it stopped their mantra that the interest rates will always be lower under a coalition government.

Yes, that was the good old days. Now a low interest rate is to try to prop up a faltering economy. If Rudd gets back in it will drop further, maybe 0.5% one day.

The European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates at a record low 0.5 per cent yesterday and affirmed they will remain there for some while to come and could yet fall further.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England also maintained interest rates at 0.5 per cent and opted not to revive its bond-buying programme, as expected.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 0.25 percent. Interest Rate in the United States is reported by the Federal Reserve. The United States Interest Rate averaged 6.14 Percent from 1971 until 2013, reaching an all time high of 20.00 Percent in May of 1981 and a record low of 0.25 Percent in December of 2008.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes, that was the good old days. Now a low interest rate is to try to prop up a faltering economy. If Rudd gets back in it will drop further, maybe 0.5% one day.

Well if they are pushing for a housing boom, in an already overheated market. What is going to stop us from having a property crash, like the U.K.

 

[sails]

The coalition are happy to blame the Labor party for creating an economic crisis that requires the RBA to drop rates. At least it stopped their mantra that the interest rates will always be lower under a coalition government.

boofhead- interest rates which are too low are not healthy. Much like body temperature - go too low and you can die. Even a couple of degrees below normal is not a healthy state.

Rudd himself declared that interest rates at 3% were at emergency levels and now the struggling economy is causing rates even lower.

Under Howard low rates were within the healthy range - these abnormally rates under labor are signs of trouble.

Is that so hard to understand?

 

[Zedd]

No one expected, in six short years of Labor, the economy could stall on most fronts.

Talk about taking context out of a statement...

Yes, that was the good old days. Now a low interest rate is to try to prop up a faltering economy. If Rudd gets back in it will drop further, maybe 0.5% one day.

boofhead- interest rates which are too low are not healthy. Much like body temperature - go too low and you can die. Even a couple of degrees below normal is not a healthy state.

Rudd himself declared that interest rates at 3% were at emergency levels and now the struggling economy is causing rates even lower.

Under Howard low rates were within the healthy range - these abnormally rates under labor are signs of trouble.

Is that so hard to understand?

Does anyone on this forum honestly think our domestic policies are having a more significant effect on our exchange and cash rates then the global macroeconomic picture?

It's posturing on both parties behalf in a situation in which they have very little control.

While major economies around the world have a near 0% cash rate, not to mention QE, our exchange rate will be pushed higher, and that has driven a slow down in our sectors, not a couple of $$$ here or there on bank levies, carbon taxes, pink bats, MRRT, etc. If it wasn't for the significant demand for one our sectors our exchange rate and cash rate would have fallen along with everyone else's.

Irrespective of who takes us forward into 2014, if the slow down in mineral demand continues we will continue to see a fall in our cash rate and exchange rate. Period. Care to suggest a policy that either party could take forward that would drive global mineral demand?

Instead of focusing on the unavoidable roller coaster ride in monetary policy we're in for while the global picture stabilises/improves, the real focus should be on fiscal policy, and how much we want government spending to be driving our economy. Because when things turn, and they will, it will be fiscal policy that will determine how high the rates spike while controlling the spiralling inflation that will occur. This is what Howard was talking about those years back, it's when Liberal, pro-business policies shine, and it will be the catch-cry of another election in the near future.

It is a reality that we may need government spending (and yes the deficit gasp!) to increase in the short term to provide a smoothing effect while the exchange rate transition occurs, but measures such as improving productivity, business confidence and business conditions are the long term solution.

Abbott's on the right path (in this matter), and I couldn't care less where (if at all) he funds his company tax rate cut from in the short term. Pity he had to link it to the maternity scheme which although aimed at workforce participation, is more middle-class welfare IMO.

 

[boofhead]

boofhead- interest rates which are too low are not healthy. Much like body temperature - go too low and you can die. Even a couple of degrees below normal is not a healthy state.

Rudd himself declared that interest rates at 3% were at emergency levels and now the struggling economy is causing rates even lower.

Under Howard low rates were within the healthy range - these abnormally rates under labor are signs of trouble.

Is that so hard to understand?

I have no idea what you think I'm having trouble understanding. I didn't state an opinion on rates. I made an observation about some comments from two parties at different times.

My opinion is I dislike rates being below 4%.

 

[sydboy007]

Well if they are pushing for a housing boom, in an already overheated market. What is going to stop us from having a property crash, like the U.K.

Considering it was Howard and Costello who bequeathed on tax payers the halving of CGT on assets over 12 months and leaving negative gearing against all income, once can clearly see one of the main causes of the bloated property prices in this country.

Factor in that property "investors" have made aggregate losses for the last 13 years since the CGT change came about one has to wonder how much longer the $4-5 billion in rental property losses every year can be subsidised??

We're around the $60B in cumulative losses since the Howard Govt CGT changes (in real terms)

 

[sydboy007]

boofhead- interest rates which are too low are not healthy. Much like body temperature - go too low and you can die. Even a couple of degrees below normal is not a healthy state.

Rudd himself declared that interest rates at 3% were at emergency levels and now the struggling economy is causing rates even lower.

Under Howard low rates were within the healthy range - these abnormally rates under labor are signs of trouble.

Is that so hard to understand?

Howard had a mining capex boom from 2-8% of GDP

Labor is facing a capex decline of 8-2% - hence the decline in interest rates.

Whoever wins next month is going to have to try and manage a MASSIVE decline in the ToT and mining capex, while also dealing with the slow and steady worsening of the dependency ratio. Factor in providing above average increase on the pension with every increasing levels of people applying for it, and I really don't see how we are going to cope.

Too many powerful voting blocks will squeal to the MSM and any reforms that are good for the country will pretty much be watered down so much they wont achieve much. That's the pathetic democracy we have at present. Politicians more worried about seeking power than actually providing the policies that will help up cope with the massive structural changes that we can't avoid.

 

[sptrawler]

Does anyone on this forum honestly think our domestic policies are having a more significant effect on our exchange and cash rates then the global macroeconomic picture?
.

The short answer, is they both are having a major effect on rates, but domestic policy is driving down interest rates.

Our domestic policies have brought about a drop in consumer and business confidence. This in turn has caused a major contraction in consumer and business spending. This in turn has forced the RBA to drop interest rates, to stimulate spending and drive employment in the construction, retail and service sectors.

With the dropping of interest rates and the resultant drop in exchange rates, it makes our product cheaper in global terms. However that does very little to stimulate employment as our export sectors are not the major employers.

So I think the main driver is domestic and rising unemployment is the main worry. The global macroeconomic picture is improving, ours is worsening.
But hey, everyone has their own ideas.

 

[sptrawler]

Factor in providing above average increase on the pension with every increasing levels of people applying for it, and I really don't see how we are going to cope..

With rates at what they are currently, that pension blowout is going to accelerate.

Too many powerful voting blocks will squeal to the MSM and any reforms that are good for the country will pretty much be watered down so much they wont achieve much. That's the pathetic democracy we have at present. Politicians more worried about seeking power than actually providing the policies that will help up cope with the massive structural changes that we can't avoid.

+1

 

[banco]

It is only my own opinion, and most will probably disagree with me, but I have always believed the replacement of Rudd with Juliar Gillard in 2010 was engineered to release Rudd to become foreign Minister in 2010 to establish himself for the UN Secretay General's job at the end of 2012. He would not have been able to take up such a position while being Prime Minister but everything went 'belly up' and Rudd was the loser on both counts; as Prime Minister and as UN Secretary General. But things went from bad to worse as Gillard established herself with the Labor Party leadership and the rest is history.

Seems like you've been smoking the good stuff.

 

[drsmith]

Seems like you've been smoking the good stuff.

The images from that time paint a telling picture.

 

[Julia]

Does anyone on this forum honestly think our domestic policies are having a more significant effect on our exchange and cash rates then the global macroeconomic picture?

Difficult to determine whether a 'more significant' effect or not. But undoubtedly a very clear significant effect imo.

It's posturing on both parties behalf in a situation in which they have very little control.

Ah, a true disciple of the Labor mantra. The Coalition has not suggested, afaik, that it's not possible for Australia to control its own destiny, irrespective of global situation.

Irrespective of who takes us forward into 2014, if the slow down in mineral demand continues we will continue to see a fall in our cash rate and exchange rate. Period. Care to suggest a policy that either party could take forward that would drive global mineral demand?

You might like to have a look at an interview due to be broadcast on "7.30" tomorrow evening, an interview with the new CEO of BHP. He directly contradicts the government's insistence that the mining boom is over.
(A brief excerpt was played this evening in order to put BHP's view to Kevin Rudd in his interview.)

Abbott's on the right path (in this matter), and I couldn't care less where (if at all) he funds his company tax rate cut from in the short term. Pity he had to link it to the maternity scheme which although aimed at workforce participation, is more middle-class welfare IMO.

Agree, as does pretty much everyone who has expressed an opinion on this, apart from Mr Abbott himself.
The Coalition avoided confirming this policy in interviews today. I wonder if they are actually finally considering deferring it, if not actually dropping it? If they did, there would be a collective sigh of relief throughout Coalition supporters.

Howard had a mining capex boom from 2-8% of GDP

Labor is facing a capex decline of 8-2% - hence the decline in interest rates.

Whoever wins next month is going to have to try and manage a MASSIVE decline in the ToT and mining capex, while also dealing with the slow and steady worsening of the dependency ratio. Factor in providing above average increase on the pension with every increasing levels of people applying for it, and I really don't see how we are going to cope.

On this latter point, today we have the esteemed Clive Palmer telling us we need to be putting in place a rise in the age pension of $150 p/f. Sadly, he didn't explain how this could be funded.

Too many powerful voting blocks will squeal to the MSM and any reforms that are good for the country will pretty much be watered down so much they wont achieve much. That's the pathetic democracy we have at present. Politicians more worried about seeking power than actually providing the policies that will help up cope with the massive structural changes that we can't avoid.

And that's the truth.

 

[noco]

Seems like you've been smoking the good stuff.

Actually I have not smoked anything since the 1st May 1976 and most likely that was before you were born.

Seems like I DO know one thing and that is how the Labor Party works. I have seen so many back door deals done including listening to Vince Gair and his mate Walsh where I rubbed shoulders with those two blokes in the Bell Vue Hotel on Geroge st Brisbane many years ago.

So please don't insult my intelligents. You are obviuosly very ignorant and naive of what goes on in the Labor Party.

 

[Zedd]

Ah, a true disciple of the Labor mantra. The Coalition has not suggested, afaik, that it's not possible for Australia to control its own destiny, irrespective of global situation.

I like to think I'm a true disciple of macro-economics, specifically in this case the International Fisher Effect. In the same way that I don't give Labour sole, even majority, credit for 'saving' us from recession, I don't give Labor majority blame, for the decreasing rates.

The more intertwined our economy becomes within the global arena, the less control we have. My comments on fiscal policy were regarding how we can control our destiny with the tools available.

 

[noco]

I like to think I'm a true disciple of macro-economics, specifically in this case the International Fisher Effect. In the same way that I don't give Labour sole, even majority, credit for 'saving' us from recession, I don't give Labor majority blame, for the decreasing rates.

The more intertwined our economy becomes within the global arena, the less control we have. My comments on fiscal policy were regarding how we can control our destiny with the tools available.

We can control our destiny with a Government that has good policies not like the era in the past 6 years nor Rudd's 3 word slogan " A NEW WAY" to take us down the same track for the next 3 years.

I for one do not want to see more waste of tax payers dollars like we have seen in the past 6 years by the worst government in history.

 

[Calliope]

News Ltd media will surely be suppressed if Rudd wins.