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We closed at 21c today. Very good move, and its clear something is brewing here.
Good luck to all holders
Good luck to all holders
1MC - Morella Corporation
- Thread starter pedalofogus
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I believe it is a combination of a couple of factors:
1. Profit taking from 10 days of gains
2. I believe some of the run was speculation of news, which hasn't come therefore causing impatience selling
3. Tech guys will tell you there is a gap at 18 cents that needs to be filled
But no matter which way it goes, the fundamentals haven't changed. Coal, iron ore and lithium could all be producing cashflows within 3 or 4 years.
thanks for that,
Which prompts another question...
I have 2 strategies (being a very loose term as i am relatively new to this) re trading/investing the first being short-term (24 hrs -6 weeks) whereby i purchase stock that has experienced a downturn of 10% + in a short term due to market sensitivity rather than any announcement or change in fundamentals.
The second is a more long-term (1-5 years) into either a "solid" stock such as WPL or BHP or perhaps a small amount into a slightly riskier "punt".. companies that appear to have a great deal of value should R+D /Exploration pay off.
So... my question is, which of these would you say AJM would fall into if any.
thanks again
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For me personally, AJM primarily is a long term investment. While it is only a small (or micro) cap company now, i believe that if they can get the 3 projects (that i mentioned in my previous post) off the ground by 2014, then they will be looking at net cash flows of approx $100m (based on my personal calcs...DYOR). Therefore, using a PE of 10x they could be a billion dollar company by 2014, which puts the share price at about $2.00 (based on fully diluted shares on issue of 460 million shares approx).
So for me it is a long termer, however i wouldn't say it is the same as BHP or WPL, because there is still the extra risk associated with its relatively small size. So you need to be comfortable with those extra risks. Having said that, the directors are mostly from New Hope Group (ASX:NHC) which is one of the 50 biggest companies on ASX (however isn't in ASX50......i guess because it is majority owned by 1 group of coys), and also their major project is a JV with Atlas Iron (ASX:AGO) in which Atlas will be managing, and Altura will pretty much just be banking cheques.
So for me the fact that their management have that large cap background, and the fact that their major project is actually managed by a decent sized company, means that the 'small cap risk' is minimised in my opinion.
Having said all that about the long term prospects, i still hold a small portion of my AJM shares as a short term investment, and i do trade the highs and lows of the short term share price. But for me it is only a small portion of my holding because if i missed the big moves over the next couple of years as a result of hunting for a few cents in the short term, i dont think i would be able to forgive my self.
Just my opinions, please do your own research.
So for me it is a long termer, however i wouldn't say it is the same as BHP or WPL, because there is still the extra risk associated with its relatively small size. So you need to be comfortable with those extra risks. Having said that, the directors are mostly from New Hope Group (ASX:NHC) which is one of the 50 biggest companies on ASX (however isn't in ASX50......i guess because it is majority owned by 1 group of coys), and also their major project is a JV with Atlas Iron (ASX:AGO) in which Atlas will be managing, and Altura will pretty much just be banking cheques.
So for me the fact that their management have that large cap background, and the fact that their major project is actually managed by a decent sized company, means that the 'small cap risk' is minimised in my opinion.
Having said all that about the long term prospects, i still hold a small portion of my AJM shares as a short term investment, and i do trade the highs and lows of the short term share price. But for me it is only a small portion of my holding because if i missed the big moves over the next couple of years as a result of hunting for a few cents in the short term, i dont think i would be able to forgive my self.
Just my opinions, please do your own research.
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HotCopper users have been discussing that AJM needs to go back and fill the gap at 18c, and it appears that is pretty certain now.
The broader market is also down 2% this morning, so the small and micro caps like AJM generally get hammered the worst in these sorts of environments.
I personally will be waiting for it to bounce off 18c before buying another short term trading parcel.
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My view is that it will sit in a holding pattern around 20c until we get some of the news we are hoping for. The following is my summary of upcoming price triggers (IMO):
- Forestry permit for Tabalong Coal;
- Positive outcomes from feasibility studies for Mt Webber from AGO;
- Resource upgrades at Mt Webber;
- Resource upgrades at Pilgangoora Lithium;
- News on progress of tender for coal areas in Philippines.
All of these are due in the short term according to previous announcements by the company, and any of them have the ability to push the SP above the current resistance of 23c. If that were to happen, i see 35c as a short term target. But there is potential that we could get more than 1 of these in the next 2 weeks, and that would be massive IMO. I will make a prediction right now that the SP will be above 50c by year end.
Just my opinions. Plz DYOR. Thanks
Disclosure: I hold a parcel of AJM
- Forestry permit for Tabalong Coal;
- Positive outcomes from feasibility studies for Mt Webber from AGO;
- Resource upgrades at Mt Webber;
- Resource upgrades at Pilgangoora Lithium;
- News on progress of tender for coal areas in Philippines.
All of these are due in the short term according to previous announcements by the company, and any of them have the ability to push the SP above the current resistance of 23c. If that were to happen, i see 35c as a short term target. But there is potential that we could get more than 1 of these in the next 2 weeks, and that would be massive IMO. I will make a prediction right now that the SP will be above 50c by year end.
Just my opinions. Plz DYOR. Thanks
Disclosure: I hold a parcel of AJM
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I agree that there is something needed to convincingly break up over 23c. When it does, and then takes a retest, it will be a good entry.
Further, looking at the current action it seems that the consolidation from 21-23c is a positive sign as there has not been a sharp sell down from resistance. Time will tell whether this lack of selling holds up. If news is not good it might have a look back at 19c quite quickly.
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Good announcement today re new coal areas being purchased in Indonesia. Doesn't appear to be having a big impact on the share price (and doesn't seem to be pushing it through the 23c barrier), but this is big news for the longer term Indo coal operations.
This is what these guys to well and the more coal areas they have, the more money i will be making in the next few years
Unfortunately it appears that the market is only interested in the DSO at Mt Webber at the moment, because news on that appears to be the only thing driving this share price.
On the bright side, news is expected any day on the DSO so we may be moving sooner rather than later.
This is what these guys to well and the more coal areas they have, the more money i will be making in the next few years
Unfortunately it appears that the market is only interested in the DSO at Mt Webber at the moment, because news on that appears to be the only thing driving this share price.
On the bright side, news is expected any day on the DSO so we may be moving sooner rather than later.
The market is a bit wary of the Indonesian govt's mining regime/rules, especally since recent announcements which appear to tighten these in favour of more compulsory local ownership of successful drills. Whether or not there is good reason for such caution I wouldn't know but its keeping me sidelined at present.
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Thanks for the chart piggybank. Excuse my dumbness (more of a fundamentals trader rather than technicals), but what does it show is the future? Thanks in advance
put out some investor forecasts the other day.....lots of coloured charts showing greatness (ummm it was an investor thing so that is what u get)....what I took away from it is that if things tank then altura should not be the first to go bust.......you cannot eat a forecast though.
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