AYS - amaysim Australia

[System]

amaysim is a leading Australian online-led Mobile Services Provider (MSP), with over 700,000 Subscribers as at the end of May 2015. Since launching, amaysim has become one of Australia’s fastest growing MSPs and is the fourth largest independent MSP in Australia by number of Subscribers. amaysim had an estimated 2% market share of the Australian Mobile Services market by number of Subscribers as at 30 June 2014.

It is anticipated that AYS will list on the ASX during July 2015.

http://www.amaysim.com.au

 

[pixel]

Re: AYS - amaysim Australia IPO

AYS did list last July and seemed to make a good start.
So, when the first HY Report showed they outperformed the Prospectus and increased profits by more than 100%, how come their shares were sold down to less than half?



I didn't hold AYS before, nor have I bought yet; however, the reason for the latter is that I was busy elsewhere and only managed some research after it had rebounded from $1.30.

 

[pixel]

Re: AYS - amaysim Australia IPO

The battle at breakout level. Who will win?
I bought some today on the pullback, expecting more upside after low-volume holding level.



Break above $2 could be viewed as rise from a Double Bottom, which would give a target well above the February gap-down. Stop $1.70.

 

[pixel]

Re: AYS - amaysim Australia IPO

waiting for the wedge to break - maybe a "4th attempt success" ?

 

[pixel]

AYS moves into power distribution market with acquisition of Click.
$120M with strong synergy benefits expected. The Market appears to like it.

I like it too and will hold - provided it stays above the break level $1.90.

 

[pixel]

AYS closed near the High on large volume.

This morning's Depth suggests continuation wit IAP at $1.95 and rising.

 

[Cam019]

I always enjoy seeing your opinions and analysis @pixel. Looks to me like you might see some significant resistance around the following prices; 2.01, 2.15 and 2.29. Only halfway through trading today but it is currently looking like an upthrust bar. Interesting to see what the EOD bar can tell us.

I do not hold a position in AYS.

 

[pixel]

Pretty close @Cam019 - but extrapolated Fibs and previous s/r levels must only be used as guidance. Therefore, when the morning trades showed a reversal "in between", I adjusted my Plan and took profit.
Based on the 1-minute chart (with a momentum envelope drawn in) I anticipated a pullback from the impulsive High - wherever it occurred. Interestingly, today's pullback included a 1.3M Crossing at $2 even. Therefore, I haven't bought back yet because I now see a chance of a total pullback that might even close this morning's up-gap.

 

[Wyatt]

AYS trying hard to get some fresh air.
Seems like a good concept to market to their online energy clients with good rates for NBN amd mobile. They tell us there service is superior to other telcos and the FF divvy is nice. On the negative side, plenty of debt

 

[greggles]

Amaysim's share price hammered today after releasing its preliminary results for the half-year ending 31 December 2017.

While the company's mobile subscriber base grew by 10%, mobile net revenue decreased by approximately 7% due to a reduction in mobile ARPU (average revenue per user). The company said APRU was "primarily impacted by the broadening of the mobile portfolio which resulted in existing subscribers migrating towards lower price plans and fewer subscribers purchasing data top ups as inclusions were increased across the portfolio."

The market punished AYS after the announcement, erasing around six months worth of gains. The share price finished the day on its lows at $1.75, down 21.52%.

Amaysim share price plunge may have been a bit of an overreaction IMO. While mobile revenue was down 7%, the company experienced solid growth in subscribers across all verticals. Might be a buying opportunity if the US markets don't tank overnight.

One to watch.

 

[galumay]

Might be a buying opportunity if the US markets don't tank overnight.

Wouldnt it be a better buying opportunity if the US markets tank overnight?

 

[greggles]

Wouldnt it be a better buying opportunity if the US markets tank overnight?

Sorry Galumay, I didn't express myself well there. I meant it may represent a buying opportunity at $1.75, which was its low of the day. I suppose it would have made more sense if the market had still been open when I posted.

 

[greggles]

Well, Amaysim continues to decline. It just closed at $1.585, down another 7% today. I was wrong about that buying opportunity at $1.75.

Amaysim operates in a cutthroat business with lots of competition. The market is clearly dissatisfied with the company's latest results and it may have further to fall before finding some support.

 

[greggles]

AYS looks to have bottomed out at around the $1.50 mark, which is where it last found support when it fell to the same level in early July last year. Will be interesting to see where it goes from here. My best guess is a slow short term recovery. I imagine all of those who wanted out after the last financial results were released on 8 February have already dumped their holdings.

 

[greggles]

Man, was I wrong about Amaysim. $1.50 support was breached in late February and AYS is now wallowing around $1.15. Its share price has essentially halved in two months.

Anyone have any views about whether Amaysim is worth a look at these levels?

 

[greggles]

Amaysim is really on the nose. Currently at 93c, down another 5% today. I thought AYS would consolidate at much higher levels but the selling has been relentless. I can't help but feel this has been a bit of an overreaction but perhaps others know something that I don't?

 

[roland]

Hey greggles, I enjoyed your commentary on AYS. Comsec just upgraded this to a buy with a 12 month target of $1.40 - might pick some up on Monday

 

[JTLP]

Hey greggles, I enjoyed your commentary on AYS. Comsec just upgraded this to a buy with a 12 month target of $1.40 - might pick some up on Monday

Why? TOG about to launch their mobile killer. Do you think they can withstand that?

 

[roland]

Why? TOG about to launch their mobile killer. Do you think they can withstand that?

ooooh, tell me more - love a good scuffle

 

[greggles]

Hey greggles, I enjoyed your commentary on AYS. Comsec just upgraded this to a buy with a 12 month target of $1.40 - might pick some up on Monday

Thanks Roland. I must admit to being dead wrong about Amaysim early on. I had no idea they would fall below $1. I didn't think their quarterly financial results were bad enough to justify that kind of share price plunge, but plunge they did.

Ultimately, it's all about revenue and perception of future revenue. Obviously many thought that due to the nature of the industry that Amaysim operates in, with so much competition and tight margins, regaining lost market share would be very difficult.

I'm inclined to stay right out of telecommunications entirely now. Too many players and technology that changes all the time. Who knows where we'll be in five years from now? For a quick trade, yes. But for medium to long term investment, no.