Well I dived in this week, an average buy price of around $112.00, hoping for a minimum 20% compound growth over the next 3 years... Should be able to pay a nice dividend as a bonus.
BKL - Blackmores Limited
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Well I dived in this week, an average buy price of around $112.00, hoping for a minimum 20% compound growth over the next 3 years... Should be able to pay a nice dividend as a bonus.
skc
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BKL AGM next week. A trading update will tell us whether the weak Q1 sales was a blip or start of a possible trend. Expect it to hold recent range until then.
Triathlete
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Looking forward to this.....If we see a bad result and price closes below $110 then we could see a fall all the way back to $68......interesting times ahead..!!
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Haven't they already said they are having issues with supply?
SO i dont know if you can expect a great result?
correct me if im wrong?
SO i dont know if you can expect a great result?
correct me if im wrong?
Triathlete
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way to much short term risk for me
Triathlete
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Yes I agree...let us see what comes out in the next report....But purely from a technical view should we close below $110 which is one of the most important levels technically (50% of the All time high) then I would say BKL will be in for rough time with the share price going a lot lower.
If I was holding at the moment..... maybe hedging the position till after the announcement might be the way to go and then close out one once we have some idea of what is happening with the company going forward...
Brilliant quote.
Question today however is why is volume so low? Anyone done any technicals work on this recently? 120 feels like a resistance level of some significance.
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BKL is currently in a corrective pullback after a huge weekly/monthly impulsive move up (ending at $221).
Currently price is in the 50 - 61.8% pullback, "ambush" buy zone if that interests you.
The daily chart shows the $120 resistance level which is only minor, but is the second hurdle to cross. The first hurdle is evidence of demand that stops or pauses the selling supply. That happened 27 Oct 16 (daily pin bar on high volume).
Longer term "value" investors may have started their buying at $100. I don't know. If I was comfortable with the company a close above $120 would be an appropriate time for an initial or partial parcel.
I'm a trader so I'll need to see a test of the $100 low. On the chart this would be a Wyckoff "spring" or a higher low on the daily/weekly chart.
You've correctly mentioned the biggest problem with trading BKL. The low market depth. Like most stocks on the ASX the MD has been thin for ages.
Currently price is in the 50 - 61.8% pullback, "ambush" buy zone if that interests you.
The daily chart shows the $120 resistance level which is only minor, but is the second hurdle to cross. The first hurdle is evidence of demand that stops or pauses the selling supply. That happened 27 Oct 16 (daily pin bar on high volume).
Longer term "value" investors may have started their buying at $100. I don't know. If I was comfortable with the company a close above $120 would be an appropriate time for an initial or partial parcel.
I'm a trader so I'll need to see a test of the $100 low. On the chart this would be a Wyckoff "spring" or a higher low on the daily/weekly chart.
You've correctly mentioned the biggest problem with trading BKL. The low market depth. Like most stocks on the ASX the MD has been thin for ages.
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On fundamental side I found the products of Black more even after allowing 40% discount are more expensive than similar products made by Swiss and few others. There are some cheaper brands and I am not comparing with them.
My concern is if Blackmore has to discount the price so heavily and still not competitive what value proposition it offers for a customer to buy them ? Vitamin and Health care products even quality wise looks good often driven by price. Classic example see fish oil. All look cheap but once you read the label will know the difference. I have unfortunately read the labels, content percentage of many of the products purely from academic purpose spending hours on Chemists and Druggist (wife will be very pissed off with my indulgence on such research time) and shop keeper kept on asking, can I help you.
I could not establish why I should pay more to Black More products. It also gives me a perception if the products are so high price at first place, then are the company reaping off ? Since they do not make prescription drugs, - so their honeymoon period to is over. May be after slump in product value, new CEO will come and I will wait also to get the price below $80 to justify my investment. Do not know who spent such a high amount for non life saving vitamin products. These are not blue pills that customer will be desperate to buy.
DNH
My concern is if Blackmore has to discount the price so heavily and still not competitive what value proposition it offers for a customer to buy them ? Vitamin and Health care products even quality wise looks good often driven by price. Classic example see fish oil. All look cheap but once you read the label will know the difference. I have unfortunately read the labels, content percentage of many of the products purely from academic purpose spending hours on Chemists and Druggist (wife will be very pissed off with my indulgence on such research time) and shop keeper kept on asking, can I help you.
I could not establish why I should pay more to Black More products. It also gives me a perception if the products are so high price at first place, then are the company reaping off ? Since they do not make prescription drugs, - so their honeymoon period to is over. May be after slump in product value, new CEO will come and I will wait also to get the price below $80 to justify my investment. Do not know who spent such a high amount for non life saving vitamin products. These are not blue pills that customer will be desperate to buy.
DNH
pixel
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All the supplements that get flogged by "Alternative" bloggers or pharma warehouses have a very limited usefulness for "normal" people. It's either an expensive way to produce rich urine, or possibly dangerous if consumers increase the dosage in the mistaken belief that more is better.
The discussion is starting to make it into mainstream media, which will reduce the sale volumes. Maybe your $80 level isn't all that far away.
The discussion is starting to make it into mainstream media, which will reduce the sale volumes. Maybe your $80 level isn't all that far away.
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Hey Pixel
Thanks for keeping track on BKL and referring me to Nov 2016. Yes, then wishful but now looks a reality th at BKL will be reaching 80 marks soon. In fact the candlestick chart you produced suggest the same. I think that time new US President was not in the picture. Since then he has changed the medicine policy, removal of Obamacare and overhaul of FDA. Of course, BKL will not directly be seen to be affecting, but as a natural course of sustainability, those pharma drug companies will then focus on health care products like BKL and increased competition.
By the way, stockinvest value has put its current value being
Current Value (Latest Results) A$75.56 (-13.1% less than last quoted value) so if that is the trend, BKL could go down south beyond $80.
I looked back on analyst briefing and shareholder update documentation.
Under shareholder update (page 5 to refer and only Pages 1 to 10 attached due to size) the opportunities are really wishful statements. No data to support nor any strength to demonstrate how they are opportunities for BKL competitively or for all health products.
Let us watch and surely you are having Hawkeye.
Thanks for keeping track on BKL and referring me to Nov 2016. Yes, then wishful but now looks a reality th at BKL will be reaching 80 marks soon. In fact the candlestick chart you produced suggest the same. I think that time new US President was not in the picture. Since then he has changed the medicine policy, removal of Obamacare and overhaul of FDA. Of course, BKL will not directly be seen to be affecting, but as a natural course of sustainability, those pharma drug companies will then focus on health care products like BKL and increased competition.
By the way, stockinvest value has put its current value being
Current Value (Latest Results) A$75.56 (-13.1% less than last quoted value) so if that is the trend, BKL could go down south beyond $80.
I looked back on analyst briefing and shareholder update documentation.
Under shareholder update (page 5 to refer and only Pages 1 to 10 attached due to size) the opportunities are really wishful statements. No data to support nor any strength to demonstrate how they are opportunities for BKL competitively or for all health products.
Let us watch and surely you are having Hawkeye
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A classic head and shoulders reversal and longer term support.
I was a day late and refused to chase it above 135 - to my own peril in this case.
Seems to be a pretty good trading stock which runs hard when it wants to.
Some noise above from here so no firm view for me now.
@peter2 this one's right up your ally!
A week too late!
A very good result today for the full year.
Revenue was a record for the group in its 86 year history. Outlook is quite positive for FY19 with a pipeline of new products to be launched and the acquisition of CSIRO endorsed weight management program Impromy.
The major markets of growth are very healthy with China at 22%, Other Asia (Excl. China) 20% and Bioceuticals branded products a whopping 20% growth which is the leading practitioners brand.
I have a few pharma friends and family and they swear by a few of the bioceuticals product in particular "ArmaForce" it is the gift of the gods. It is recommended to take Armaforce as soon as you start to feel sick, it pretty much prevents you getting sick or on the unlikely event you do get ill it reduces how long you get sick for. Great for families with young kids from childcare or people or who get sick.
Closed at $162.00 up 11.5%, next short term price target is $175 then should try and break its ATH of $220 in January 2016.
Highlights below:
Revenue was a record for the group in its 86 year history. Outlook is quite positive for FY19 with a pipeline of new products to be launched and the acquisition of CSIRO endorsed weight management program Impromy.
The major markets of growth are very healthy with China at 22%, Other Asia (Excl. China) 20% and Bioceuticals branded products a whopping 20% growth which is the leading practitioners brand.
I have a few pharma friends and family and they swear by a few of the bioceuticals product in particular "ArmaForce" it is the gift of the gods. It is recommended to take Armaforce as soon as you start to feel sick, it pretty much prevents you getting sick or on the unlikely event you do get ill it reduces how long you get sick for. Great for families with young kids from childcare or people or who get sick.
Closed at $162.00 up 11.5%, next short term price target is $175 then should try and break its ATH of $220 in January 2016.
Highlights below:
bigdog
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SP smashed today after ANN
The company’s CEO, Richard Henfrey, blamed the lack of profit growth on its investment in advertising and promotion and softening growth in China.
ASX ann per link
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190219/pdf/442ql1z6zg56xs.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190219/pdf/442qm3h6frd12q.pdf
The company’s CEO, Richard Henfrey, blamed the lack of profit growth on its investment in advertising and promotion and softening growth in China.
ASX ann per link
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190219/pdf/442ql1z6zg56xs.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190219/pdf/442qm3h6frd12q.pdf
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Thanks @bigdog for being prompt to publish BKL.
The China factor is going to be worry even if the fall is now recovering.
I am posting an excerpt from the Motley (free published one is often juicy but the paid one is no different and they are great fan of BKL). But today the tone is different. DNH
The China factor is going to be worry even if the fall is now recovering.
I am posting an excerpt from the Motley (free published one is often juicy but the paid one is no different and they are great fan of BKL). But today the tone is different. DNH
bigdog
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https://www.theage.com.au/business/...igns-after-company-talks-20190226-p510f5.html
Board wants change': Blackmores CEO resigns after company talks
By Darren Gray
February 27, 2019
Blackmores' biggest shareholder and former chairman Marcus Blackmore says chief executive Richard Henfrey resigned just 18 months into his role after discussions with the board over the need for a "transformational change".
Mr Blackmore, who remains an executive director, said the board believed that the business needed "to strengthen innovation and we need more new products. And we need to make decisions quicker".
"The board want change, they've sat down with Richard [Henfrey] and said what they thought [about] where we should be going with the business, and gave Richard the option of either staying with the business or resigning," he said.
Mr Henfrey's resignation, announced on Tuesday, completes an unhealthy period for the health supplements company that saw its stock price fall 25 per cent in a day and hundreds of millions of dollars wiped off its market capitalisation.
But Mr Blackmore, speaking from Indonesia, said Mr Henfrey's resignation was not due to the falling share price, nor the company's December half year results which disappointed the market and prompted the stock price fall.
Mr Blackmore said the firm's board had reached the view that the company needed to make "transformational change".
"They've come up with, I guess, a middle of the road situation where Richard has formally resigned to the board, but he's agreed to stay on for some time until we find a new chief executive who can lead this level of change in the business," he said.
Mr Blackmore said the company was much bigger than it was five years ago, and admitted that in some areas it had not "adjusted quickly enough to the growth options".
"Richard's resignation, has been something that's been going on for some time. It is in no way, no way at all related to the drop in our share price last week...The fact remains that all our business units are going well," he said.
Mr Blackmore also told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald that Mr Henfrey's decision to resign was "the right decision for the shareholders and for the board. So I'm pleased he's made that sort of decision".
Mr Henfrey has been with Blackmores since 2009 and performed a number of executive roles before he was appointed CEO in August 2017, a successor to the high profile Christine Holgate.
Mr Henfrey's resignation announcement comes just a week after Blackmores reported a half year result that disappointed investors and sent its stock price down a hefty 25 per cent on the day. Blackmores told the market that sales in China had dropped about 11 per cent and warned that its second half profit would fall below its first half result.
Morgans analyst Belinda Moore said Blackmores had reported a poor half year result, and appeared to be under-performing compared to its peers.
"We don't know specifically what's happened here, but it's not a great shock given recent weak results," she said of Mr Henfrey's resignation.
Blackmore shares closed down 3.9 per cent ($3.73) at $91.47 on Tuesday, a far cry from its January 2016 levels of around $220 off the back of surging growth in its China sales.
The day before Blackmores released its December half results its shares closed at $123.56. The plunge in the company's stock price since the results were released has wiped about $555 million off its market capitalisation in just six trading days.
In a note to clients Ms Moore said that while Blackmores' revenue growth for the half of 11 per cent was reasonable, the "China-led second quarter 2019 slowdown underwhelmed".
"While management did attribute some of its slowdown to softer Chinese consumer sentiment, we believe Blackmores' underperformance is more company specific and reflects the impact of increased competition. We note competitors are reporting strong growth and the cross-border e-commerce vitamin category is still posting growth (implying Blackmores is losing share)," she said.
Board wants change': Blackmores CEO resigns after company talks
By Darren Gray
February 27, 2019
Blackmores' biggest shareholder and former chairman Marcus Blackmore says chief executive Richard Henfrey resigned just 18 months into his role after discussions with the board over the need for a "transformational change".
Mr Blackmore, who remains an executive director, said the board believed that the business needed "to strengthen innovation and we need more new products. And we need to make decisions quicker".
"The board want change, they've sat down with Richard [Henfrey] and said what they thought [about] where we should be going with the business, and gave Richard the option of either staying with the business or resigning," he said.
Mr Henfrey's resignation, announced on Tuesday, completes an unhealthy period for the health supplements company that saw its stock price fall 25 per cent in a day and hundreds of millions of dollars wiped off its market capitalisation.
But Mr Blackmore, speaking from Indonesia, said Mr Henfrey's resignation was not due to the falling share price, nor the company's December half year results which disappointed the market and prompted the stock price fall.
Mr Blackmore said the firm's board had reached the view that the company needed to make "transformational change".
"They've come up with, I guess, a middle of the road situation where Richard has formally resigned to the board, but he's agreed to stay on for some time until we find a new chief executive who can lead this level of change in the business," he said.
Mr Blackmore said the company was much bigger than it was five years ago, and admitted that in some areas it had not "adjusted quickly enough to the growth options".
"Richard's resignation, has been something that's been going on for some time. It is in no way, no way at all related to the drop in our share price last week...The fact remains that all our business units are going well," he said.
Mr Blackmore also told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald that Mr Henfrey's decision to resign was "the right decision for the shareholders and for the board. So I'm pleased he's made that sort of decision".
Mr Henfrey has been with Blackmores since 2009 and performed a number of executive roles before he was appointed CEO in August 2017, a successor to the high profile Christine Holgate.
Mr Henfrey's resignation announcement comes just a week after Blackmores reported a half year result that disappointed investors and sent its stock price down a hefty 25 per cent on the day. Blackmores told the market that sales in China had dropped about 11 per cent and warned that its second half profit would fall below its first half result.
Morgans analyst Belinda Moore said Blackmores had reported a poor half year result, and appeared to be under-performing compared to its peers.
"We don't know specifically what's happened here, but it's not a great shock given recent weak results," she said of Mr Henfrey's resignation.
Blackmore shares closed down 3.9 per cent ($3.73) at $91.47 on Tuesday, a far cry from its January 2016 levels of around $220 off the back of surging growth in its China sales.
The day before Blackmores released its December half results its shares closed at $123.56. The plunge in the company's stock price since the results were released has wiped about $555 million off its market capitalisation in just six trading days.
In a note to clients Ms Moore said that while Blackmores' revenue growth for the half of 11 per cent was reasonable, the "China-led second quarter 2019 slowdown underwhelmed".
"While management did attribute some of its slowdown to softer Chinese consumer sentiment, we believe Blackmores' underperformance is more company specific and reflects the impact of increased competition. We note competitors are reporting strong growth and the cross-border e-commerce vitamin category is still posting growth (implying Blackmores is losing share)," she said.
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A substantial fall in the share price today following an announcement of reduced profit.
Price hit a low of $82.79 thus far versus yesterday's close of $89.90, but it's now back up to $87.02
Price hit a low of $82.79 thus far versus yesterday's close of $89.90, but it's now back up to $87.02
bigdog
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ASX announcement today and share price is currently down 15.75%
12/02/2020 8:29:35 AM Blackmores Trading Update (uploaded)
Blackmores expects to report an underlying NPAT of $18 million in the first half. This will be a 47% decline on the prior corresponding period and falls short of its $21 million guidance. Management forecasting a full year NPAT of just $17 million to $21 million.
347
12/02/2020 8:29:35 AM Blackmores Trading Update (uploaded)
Blackmores expects to report an underlying NPAT of $18 million in the first half. This will be a 47% decline on the prior corresponding period and falls short of its $21 million guidance. Management forecasting a full year NPAT of just $17 million to $21 million.
347
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