AHY - Asaleo Care

[Ves]

All I said is that those GST are to be paid, so the reported earnings or the net operating cash... that's not all $117m to be spent on whatever - $14m of it will be paid in GST... Further, I said they can delay and push it back, but it's not theirs, is it?

No, the bolded bit is still wrong. The $117m net operating cash flow in the 2015 financial statements was the result after any GST payments had been subtracted.

 

[Ves]

The obvious (and sincere) question I have to ask is why even bother with it ?

Honestly, I've never had any exposure to AHY in my portfolio at all.

My only real purpose here is correcting what I see as some pretty basic errors in another poster's analysis for the benefit of any one currently looking at the posts.

Probably a waste of half an hour, come to think of it...

 

[McLovin]

Honestly, I've never had any exposure to AHY in my portfolio at all.

My only real purpose here is correcting what I see as some pretty basic errors in another poster's analysis for the benefit of any one currently looking at the posts.

Probably a waste of half an hour, come to think of it...

Yes. I looked at it when it floated and tossed it aside after a couple of minutes. Haven't looked at it since. It's not going bust though.

 

[Boggo]

Honestly, I've never had any exposure to AHY in my portfolio at all.

My only real purpose here is correcting what I see as some pretty basic errors in another poster's analysis for the benefit of any one currently looking at the posts.

Probably a waste of half an hour, come to think of it...

OK, Thanks, just wondering.

 

[luutzu]

Honestly, I've never had any exposure to AHY in my portfolio at all.

My only real purpose here is correcting what I see as some pretty basic errors in another poster's analysis for the benefit of any one currently looking at the posts.

Probably a waste of half an hour, come to think of it...

What, you say you want to help other people from following an idiot and lose their money... but you worry about wasting time.


Where are the basic errors?

Oh, the GST... I ought to use the reported earnings, do a whole FCF analysis. Can't do a rule of thumb, real cash calculation. 'cause that'd be idiotic.

 

[luutzu]

Yes. I looked at it when it floated and tossed it aside after a couple of minutes. Haven't looked at it since. It's not going bust though.

You haven't looked at it but you know it's not going bust... how?

Because it hasn't gone bust? So it's not going to go bust?


So its revenue will shrink this year, its inventory has gained, its cash cycle is very high and has been increasing past 3 years.. its earnigs is expected by its own management to drop by at least 15% Fy16; it owes $320m and $191 is due next September.... but it's not going bust because someone will extend the loan or bail it out?

You might be right about that though.

 

[luutzu]

No, the bolded bit is still wrong. The $117m net operating cash flow in the 2015 financial statements was the result after any GST payments had been subtracted.

So that $117m is after all GST that's due had been paid?

Show me.

I've read the CF statement and its note, don't see it.


But as I've said above, let's give it you that that $14m all Asaleo's to use... how has its cash activities fare at the end of the year? Almost breaking even after taking a $105m additional loan on board.


Simple question is... would you buy Asaleo at current prices?

If not, then why does the company go borrow money to buy the shares back?
Conspiracy theory right?

 

[Ves]

So that $117m is after all GST that's due had been paid?

Show me.

I've read the CF statement and its note, don't see it.

If it's not included on there the cash movement for the period at the bottom of the Cash Flow Statement wouldn't match the movement of the bank account for the period on the balance sheet.

It's not like Asaleo are treating payments to the ATO for GST any differently than any other company.

 

[luutzu]

Guys, a serious and genuine question.

I am not having a go, not criticising FA, not trying to start a who has the biggest to and fro series of comments etc.

I seriously admire the amount and depth of work that you guys put into these stocks.

This stock is now trading over 30 cents lower than it was two years ago, has paid 19.4 cents in dividends and only the last dividend was 50% franked.

The obvious (and sincere) question I have to ask is why even bother with it ?

For me, Asaleo is more than a bad business. It's a trend where people's life savings are being stolen right under our noses.

For people who have the time and interest to invest their own fund, that's fair game... you don't pay attention, you might lose your money.

What about those who entrust their savings to the professional fund managers?


If you're wondering why anyone bother to invest in Asaleo; if McLovin and Ves throw it out after two minute of scanning through it; even a guy like me know not to touch it... then why in the heck are professional money managers buying into it?

At FY 2015, SCA owns about 34% while professional funds own about 55% of Asaleo. The rate would be similar at IPO - I haven't looked, but I'm willing to go all conspiracy on that too.


So we got to ask ourselves... why are those smart monies, with all that resources and education, just "can't see" a bad deal when it's sold to them?

They can't be all incompetent.

It can't be just me to think that ey, if I managed a fund with hundreds of millions or a few billions.. .and I were to "make a bad decision" small enough it won't hurt my averages.. .and that bad decision pays friends and future employer very handsomely. I might one day get an offer to join the club and round and round we go flogging off garbage to fund managers who's paid whether they win or lose other people's hard earning savings.

Yea, conspiracy theory.

 

[luutzu]

If it's not included on there the cash movement for the period at the bottom of the Cash Flow Statement wouldn't match the movement of the bank account for the period on the balance sheet.

It's not like Asaleo are treating payments to the ATO for GST any differently than any other company.

I'm not saying it's illegal what they're doing there.

I simply say that if it's up to me to work out how much cash the company takes in and what it has to spend and invest on, I'd take out that $14m as cash to be put aside for the GST.

 

[craft]

Guys, a serious and genuine question.

I am not having a go, not criticising FA, not trying to start a who has the biggest to and fro series of comments etc.

I seriously admire the amount and depth of work that you guys put into these stocks.

This stock is now trading over 30 cents lower than it was two years ago, has paid 19.4 cents in dividends and only the last dividend was 50% franked.

The obvious (and sincere) question I have to ask is why even bother with it ?

No interest in the stock. Only interest here is making sure dribble is not misinterpreted as factual analysis. it's only Luutzu implying we're interested. Strawman stuff.

 

[Boggo]

No interest in the stock. Only interest here is making sure dribble is not misinterpreted as factual analysis. it's only Luutzu implying we're interested. Strawman stuff.

Okey dokey

 

[luutzu]

No interest in the stock. Only interest here is making sure dribble is not misinterpreted as factual analysis. it's only Luutzu implying we're interested. Strawman stuff.

Dribble ey. Non factual analysis ey.

kekeke

I wouldn't talk like that if my entire approach to investing are based entirely on being precise about a series of future "data" no one in the world could predict just one series with any consistent accuracy. But if it's written and estimated enough to a number, it's precise and factual.



That and you guys are only getting involve in this discussion to help the poor little newbie investors from being duped and lose money by me and my idiocy.

Do you ever speak out loud and hear yourself?


One, would you buy Asaleo at IPO? How about now?

No you guys do not buy them. You think it's rubbish.

Right at about there that, if you guys care for others financial well being, you'd say something. Like, ey, just letting you guys know I think it's rubbish, watch out and DYOR, it's my two cents.


Don't get me wrong, it's no one's job to warn people or give any two fs... but those people tend not to spout on about their caring for other's well being...

That and you guys think someone would be influenced by me - a nobody with five bucks to his name?

I'd put more effort into seeing whether a multi billion dollar private equity fund is about to unload a bunch of bs and take half a billion from people. But that's just me.

anywho...

 

[greggles]

The Asaleo Care share price collapsed a few days ago after announcing its preliminary 1H18 Results and revised FY18 Earnings Guidance.

Here are the details:

That's a pretty disappointing result that was attributed to the following factors:

The market reacted swiftly and the AHY share price was punished and has fallen from $1.30 to around 80c. Given the revised FY18 Earnings Guidance there is nothing to recommend this company until such time as they can demonstrate real and sustained earnings growth again. No idea when that might be.

 

[greggles]

A recovery on the cards for Asaleo Care? After spending four and a half months consolidating between 60c and 90c, AHY looks like it might be ready for a leg up. Today it has climbed 43.20% to 89.5c, reaching an intraday high of 96.2c on volume of around 8.7 million shares.

The catalyst for today's move north was this morning's announcement that AHY has sold its Australian Consumer Tissue business to Solaris Paper Pty Ltd. Under the terms of the transaction, Solaris Paper has agreed to pay Asaleo Care $180 million, resulting in a book profit on sale of between $15 - $20 million. The Australian Consumer Tissue business includes leading brands Sorbent toilet and facial tissue, Handee Ultra paper towel, and Deeko serviettes and disposable tableware.

The company claims that moving forward cash generation will be stronger as the Australian Consumer Tissue business has historically consumed approximately 30% of the AHY's capital spending. The market seems to like the deal and the fact that a lot of cash will now be at AHY's disposal.

It will be interesting to see if AHY can hold and consolidate above resistance at 90c.

 

[luutzu]

A recovery on the cards for Asaleo Care? After spending four and a half months consolidating between 60c and 90c, AHY looks like it might be ready for a leg up. Today it has climbed 43.20% to 89.5c, reaching an intraday high of 96.2c on volume of around 8.7 million shares.

The catalyst for today's move north was this morning's announcement that AHY has sold its Australian Consumer Tissue business to Solaris Paper Pty Ltd. Under the terms of the transaction, Solaris Paper has agreed to pay Asaleo Care $180 million, resulting in a book profit on sale of between $15 - $20 million. The Australian Consumer Tissue business includes leading brands Sorbent toilet and facial tissue, Handee Ultra paper towel, and Deeko serviettes and disposable tableware.

The company claims that moving forward cash generation will be stronger as the Australian Consumer Tissue business has historically consumed approximately 30% of the AHY's capital spending. The market seems to like the deal and the fact that a lot of cash will now be at AHY's disposal.

It will be interesting to see if AHY can hold and consolidate above resistance at 90c.

View attachment 90650

Most of that money will go towards settling that Facility B debt due end this FY19 financial year.

 

[luutzu]

Wait... so they sold those famous Sorbent, Handee, Purex brands.

The other brands they licensed from Essity.

They're stuffed. Going to be manufacturing high quality Home Brands for Collies soon.

 

[luutzu]

AHY is heading into more trouble.

If we think it's the kind of business that's been bullied by the big Collies, wait 'til FY19 when it's just another homebrand manufacturer.

Inventory is piling up. Sales declining. Costs of pulp management themselves project to rise, along with energy costs.

Dividends will remain cut [or they can always pull a DRP, which in and of itself isn't a bad thing but will be as they have no cash to pay rather than conserving cash to make a big strategic move].

Probably, highly likely, a cap raising. I mean, lenders are already covering half AHY's asset. With the brand gone all they'll get to fight over in case of a bankruptcy are some new machines really. Would be tough to ask for more loans without also chipping in some shareholders own dole.

 

[rnr]

Asaleo Care released its 1H2019 results on Aug 20, 2019 and now looks set to make its second attempt to close the 21.5¢ gap formed in July 2018.
[DNH]

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Asaleo in the personal hygiene and tissue space.

Wow, let's buy

wait a minute. ..... Sold Sorbent a year ago

LoL