NBN Rollout Scrapped

[drsmith]

No.

You quoted Rod Tucker's SMH article and then declared what Simon says doesn't count for much in response to his reply being brought to your attention.

Do you agree with Simon Hackett's response or the original article ?

 

[overhang]

You quoted Rod Tucker's SMH article and then declared what Simon says doesn't count for much in response to his reply being brought to your attention.

Do you agree with Simon Hackett's response or the original article ?

I do find it interesting how you weren't linking the blogs that Simon Hackett made that were critical of the coalition NBN policy before he was appointed to the board.
Since your well versed on his blogs though you should know that he still thinks that FTTP is the way to go but given the reduced budget they have been given he believes that NBN co are achieving the best possible network under the circumstances. I would hardly say he has changed sides and it is a relief to have someone on the board who doesn't have a vested interest with Telstra like the many of the board do.

 

[sydboy007]

You quoted Rod Tucker's SMH article and then declared what Simon says doesn't count for much in response to his reply being brought to your attention.

Do you agree with Simon Hackett's response or the original article ?

Currently the majority of people are signing up for plans above 15Mbs, so how can it be argued that the median required speed in 2023 will be 15Mbs??? If over 50% of current NBN customers are on 25Mbs+ plans then the median is already higher.

The actual quote - As of 2023, the median household requires bandwidth of 15 Mbps

To go on with what the report said

Rather, access capacity should be driven by higher end users. Whether this means the top 1% or the top 5% (or some other figure) is a matter of judgement.

Well over 5% of customers on the NBN are on the 100/40 plan, something Ziggy has admitted cannot be offered on a guaranteed basis, so how does the the current NBN board propose to overcome that limitation?? Yes, the silence is deafening.

Now Simon goes on to say

Further, the original report projects that that to make at least 95% of households happy, the NBN has to be offering speeds of at least 43 Mbps (and for near 100% satisfaction, the speeds offered have to be much higher than that)

Once again, how will this be achieved? As far as I can see only the Govt is telling us there's a minimum 25Mbs speed guarantee but the NBN board itself is not willing to back it. Considering the Govt has broken all it's promises over the NBN so far, it seems prudent to think this minimum guarantee is likely to turn into a non core promise too.

The distribution of projected user demands is blatantly wrong, or at least seems contradictory that in 2023 50% of users will be happy with speeds of 15Mbs or less, yet the above quote indicates to make 95% of customers happy you need a minimum of 43Mbs. Care to explain how this contradiction occurs?

So now that I've provided a reasonable response to you, would you care to say what you think about Telstra being given a monopoly right to offer HFC to customers as new lead in cables are installed? I've only asked you 4 times.

 

[drsmith]

So now that I've provided a reasonable response to you, would you care to say what you think about Telstra being given a monopoly right to offer HFC to customers as new lead in cables are installed? I've only asked you 4 times.

I haven't said anything to defend on that detail of the deal between Telstra and NBN Co in relation to Telstra's HFC cable.

You on the other hand quoted Rod Tucker's SMH article in your criticism of the current government's model. I have returned to this given Simon Hackett's recent critique of that article. You are at least now quoting Simon Hackett instead of dismissing his view as what Simon is saying doesn't really count for much.

 

[drsmith]

I do find it interesting how you weren't linking the blogs that Simon Hackett made that were critical of the coalition NBN policy before he was appointed to the board.
Since your well versed on his blogs though you should know that he still thinks that FTTP is the way to go but given the reduced budget they have been given he believes that NBN co are achieving the best possible network under the circumstances. I would hardly say he has changed sides and it is a relief to have someone on the board who doesn't have a vested interest with Telstra like the many of the board do.

He's a pragmatist. Money and time are considerations too as any competent board member would understand.

He would have learned a lot from being inside the NBN tent. For example, I refer to his September presentation which included commentary on the state of Labor's rollout.

 

[Smurf1976]

Well over 5% of customers on the NBN are on the 100/40 plan

I do wonder how many of those are actually making use of that speed?

It's like standing at a service station and watching people fill cars with RON 98 fuel when that vehicle would run just as well on 95 or even 91. People do it, presumably through some combination of sheer ignorance, the effects of marketing and/or some inner desire to bump up the consumption of crude oil a bit. It's irrational but pretty common in practice.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are people with higher end NBN plans who are in practice not doing anything online that wouldn't be done equally well with the cheapest plan.

 

[Trembling Hand]

The New Space Race: One Man's Mission to Build a Galactic Internet

Interesting read on the future interweb.

 

[orr]

From 2002, for younger viewers Alston was John Howard's Communications & IT Minister

Senator Alston was responding to a question from ABC Television Journalist Alan Kohler:

'ALAN KOHLER: In the early days you were actually not just sceptical, you were quite negative, I think you even said that it's just for pornography and gambling?
SENATOR RICHARD ALSTON: Well for example, people will tell you that pornography is one of the major reasons why there's been a high take-up rate in South Korea. I haven't confirmed that at first instance but I've been there, I've looked at what's happening. My scepticism has really been about whether there is any compelling national interest in the Government spending money on subsidising roll-outs to consumers. Because at the moment it's pretty much more of same but a bit faster for most consumers.'

With the forward thinking capacity like that on prospects of the near future Alston was emblematic of the Cabinet to which he belonged. Little wonder so much was squandered by Howard's administration

 

[sydboy007]

From 2002, for younger viewers Alston was John Howard's Communications & IT Minister

Senator Alston was responding to a question from ABC Television Journalist Alan Kohler:

'ALAN KOHLER: In the early days you were actually not just sceptical, you were quite negative, I think you even said that it's just for pornography and gambling?
SENATOR RICHARD ALSTON: Well for example, people will tell you that pornography is one of the major reasons why there's been a high take-up rate in South Korea. I haven't confirmed that at first instance but I've been there, I've looked at what's happening. My scepticism has really been about whether there is any compelling national interest in the Government spending money on subsidising roll-outs to consumers. Because at the moment it's pretty much more of same but a bit faster for most consumers.'

With the forward thinking capacity like that on prospects of the near future Alston was emblematic of the Cabinet to which he belonged. Little wonder so much was squandered by Howard's administration

Oh Yes, Senator Luddite. He was a real hoot about the interwebby thing.

I'm waiting for when the truth of Telstra's copper network finally becomes unavoidable. We had a new install for a client in Miranda (Sydney) at the Shopping centre and when we logged a fault for the line were told a tech would attend by March 5th (this was back on the 17th Feb). I asked why and was told there's a MSD (Mass Service Disruption) which basically Telstra gets the ACCC to approve and then they can take however long they like to get things fixed.

I wasn't convinced but sure enough this is what Telstra has been able to get away with - 20141204-NSW-S-C-P-SYDNEY-AND-COASTAL-AND-CENTRAL-NSW-EXTENSION-2 Started 04/12/2014 due to end 15/03/2015 Sydney, Greater Sydney, South Coast, Illawarra, Hunter, Mid North Coast, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands Districts, parts of the Central West Slopes and Plains and South West Slopes Districts claimed due to Extreme Weather Conditions. They might as well have put the whole of NSW in the MSD.

Victoria is not much better off either with 3 MSDs covering Northern Country, Central, South West and Wimmera Districts of Victoria + East Gippsland, West & South Gippsland, North Central and North East Districts of Victoria and Riverina, South Coast and Snowy Mountains Districts of New South Wales + Central and North Central Districts of Victoria that runs from Feb 16 till March 15

Anyone who's interested can have a looksie as to just how many areas Telstra has been able to get out of it's SLA obligations at:

http://www.telstra.com.au/consumer-advice/customer-service/mass-service-disruption/#search

Some may indeed be due to extreme weather events, but exacerbated due to poor network maintenance and lack of staff. This is what the Abbott Govt has put it's hand into our collective pockets to buy back at a grossly inflated value, a rotting copper network held together with corrosive gels and plastic bags, and somehow this is the way of the future for us.

 

[drsmith]

From an phone/internet data perspective, Labor effectively purchased the copper and HFC networks and chose to shut them down and replace them with fibre. The current government from that framework will effectively purchase them and use them.

There's obviously differences in the detail which have been long since discussed to death in this thread but it's the previous government that made the decision about ultimate financial responsibility for those networks.

 

[sydboy007]

From an phone/internet data perspective, Labor effectively purchased the copper and HFC networks and chose to shut them down and replace them with fibre. The current government from that framework will effectively purchase them and use them.

There's obviously differences in the detail which have been long since discussed to death in this thread but it's the previous government that made the decision about ultimate financial responsibility for those networks.

Abbott has moved the expense of maintenance onto the tax payers. There's also the expense and lots of unknowns regarding the HFC network and just how much will be required to actually get it up to an acceptable level of service.

There'll be lots of claims though once NBN takes ownership of sections of the HFC network to provide grossly inflated NBN customer figures.

Lets hope Bill Morrow has been honest and NBN can use more fiber if it's determined Telstra copper isn't up to the task, but I wont be surprised if there's a fair amount of pressure to use copper so as to justify the move to FTTN.

 

[Tisme]

This is what the Abbott Govt has put it's hand into our collective pockets to buy back at a grossly inflated value, a rotting copper network held together with corrosive gels and plastic bags, and somehow this is the way of the future for us.

I don't know about the plastic bags, but I seen plenty of inverted juice bottles used to water proof the K series connectors in the pits.

 

[Smurf1976]

it's the previous government that made the decision about ultimate financial responsibility for those networks.

Whoever privatised Telstra in the first place is absolutely to blame for the mess.

Privatisation is little more than inter-generational theft in most cases. Sell a working asset to a private owner, let them run it into the ground, then buy it back sometime later at an inflated price and spend a fortune to fix it.

In due course the same will inevitably happen with power, water, rail, airports and all the rest, indeed we're already quite some way down that track with power and on a limited scale it's already happened with rail and airports. Sell it today, private owner milks it for all its' worth, taxpayer then pays a fortune to buy it back and another fortune to fix it.

Either keep critical infrastructure in public ownership or alternatively, force the private owners to spend the $ on maintenance and refurbishment.

As for not being able to respond in a timely manner to mass disruptions, well that's what happens when you cut staff to the bone and rely heavily on contractors. It always works fine when there's an average workload, falling in a heap the moment there's a crisis. Same happens everywhere that uses that strategy.

 

[drsmith]

Whoever privatised Telstra in the first place is absolutely to blame for the mess.

The Howard government can't be blamed for the mess that the subsequent Labor created as the NBN but I do have sympathy for the view that the monopoly side of Telstra's business should have been structurally separated prior to privatisation of the rest.

That though would have still left the government with the copper.

 

[sydboy007]

The Howard government can't be blamed for the mess that the subsequent Labor created as the NBN but I do have sympathy for the view that the monopoly side of Telstra's business should have been structurally separated prior to privatisation of the rest.

That though would have still left the government with the copper.

There was nothing to top the Howard Govt from selling a Telstra retail and Telecom wholesale network operator with a mandated open access regime.

Telecom wholesale would have had a built in incentive to get as much traffic onto it's network as possible. There wouldn't have been any benefit to them chumming up with Telstra retail.

The Howard Govt. ran the numbers and found selling a vertically integrated monopoly would raise more $$$ for the Govt, even though it would be to the long term detriment of the industry and customers.

Once can argue that Labor missed an opportunity for not using OTC to start viable competition, instead of rolling it into Telecom at the time, but they at least had the monopolist shackled and could push it towards providing better outcomes.

Do you see the inconsistency between the Howard Govt leaving Telstra with few limits on how it operated in the market, and how Abbott Govt brought in changes to licensing conditions mid Dec 2014 to become operational at Jan 1 2015 to force any company offering high speed internet services like FTTB would have to be structurally separated and provide open access to their network at a fix cost.

It does beg the question of why Telstra has been given over a decade to achieve what other parties have been given 6.5 months. From complaints in opposition of not allowing enough competition with the NBN, to doing just about everything to stop competition when in office. Some consistency in their policy would be welcome.

Then we have the potential for TPG to head to the courts claiming compensation. Whether this happens or not, it does give them a decent bargaining chip against NBN.

It will be interesting to see if Telstra ia able to meet the mid year deadline of the CLC.

 

[drsmith]

Syd,

Re TPG and the NBN, I have little interest in constantly regurgitating old points of conversation over and over.

There comes a point where if we have different points of view, we have different points of view.

 

[drsmith]

An update on the rollout costs for FTTP,

A six-month review by NBN chief financial officer Stephen Rue found it has cost $4316 per premise to install FTTP broadband in existing premises and $2780 in greenfields areas.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...cost-per-premise-doubles-20150224-13nps4.html

 

[drsmith]

AFR,

The cost of connecting a single existing home or business to the national broadband network has risen to $4316 thanks to higher construction costs and a change in accounting rules, according to NBN Co.

NBN Co before a Senate estimates committee on Tuesday with new audited figures to show how much it costs the company to connect homes and businesses with fibre-optic cabling. This is the seventh review into the NBN since Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull took over the project.

In 2013 when Labor was rolling out the network, NBN Co said the cost per premise was $1100 – a figure that did not include the cost of connecting homes to local telephone exchanges and points of interconnect. Once that was included the total cost was around $3300.

But according to new figures from NBN Co chief executive Bill Morrow, the real cost in June 2013 was $3384 per premise. As of December 2014, the figure has risen to $3579.

"In the past six months, NBN Co has undertaken a comprehensive review of cost per premises of building the NBN," he said. "The findings will form part of our results materials on Thursday but due to the complexity of the subject and our intent for transparency I'd like to table the information here today for discussion.

"These are fully allocated costings and represent the cost of building a connection from the transit network to the customer or RSP equipment."

http://www.afr.com/p/technology/connecting_one_premise_to_national_PEpugsmYRESZc9G34M8uTI

 

[overhang]

AFR,



http://www.afr.com/p/technology/connecting_one_premise_to_national_PEpugsmYRESZc9G34M8uTI

So building FTTP would have been 10% over budget from Labor's original figure of $43 billion which was due to the rising contractor rates and remediation work on the Telstra infrastructure. One thing is for sure the Liberal propaganda of $97 billion they sprouted before the election is no where near the mark.

 

[drsmith]

So building FTTP would have been 10% over budget from Labor's original figure of $43 billion which was due to the rising contractor rates and remediation work on the Telstra infrastructure. One thing is for sure the Liberal propaganda of $97 billion they sprouted before the election is no where near the mark.

There's more to the required funding than just the capital expenditure but who knows what that would have ultimately cost under Labor given the state of the rollout when they left office.